Author Topic: Ian  (Read 2783 times)

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Offline Jasiu

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Ian
« on: September 26, 2022, 05:11:02 PM »
Florida peeps: Stay safe!!

If you have time, let us know what's happening, what preps you are doing, etc.

Surge appears to be the big issue with this one.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2022, 05:38:35 PM »
I am in Vermont at the moment. Heading home tomorrow. Hopefully the flight doesn't get cancelled.
Latest track takes it about 45 miles to my west as a Cat 1. My location is the flag on the map.
Looks like it's going to be a fun Wednesday and Thursday.
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Online DoctorKnow

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Re: Ian
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2022, 05:55:49 PM »
Looking at the guidance, there is a lot still up in the air on this one.

Offline davidmc36

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Re: Ian
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2022, 08:34:40 PM »
Weather person I heard this evening commented how the surge will be a big concern no matter the exact track. Storm surge did some amazing damage in Port aux Basques NL

Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2022, 08:52:15 PM »
Yeah the surge could be real bad.
I have people coming to my house because they are in a evacuation zone in Tampa.

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Ian
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2022, 09:12:46 PM »
Yeah the surge could be real bad.
I have people coming to my house because they are in a evacuation zone in Tampa.
I think I heard that the water is quite shallow up the coast. If so, just makes it worse.

Offline Jasiu

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Re: Ian
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2022, 09:56:30 PM »
My location is the flag on the map.

Anyone who has made multiple treks up and down I-75 knows where Ocala is!  :grin:
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Offline Transporterman

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Re: Ian
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2022, 04:38:07 AM »
Hope all goes well to all those in the path of Ian.:shock:  If anyone is leaving their station up, it would be interesting  to chart this thing's approach (if the WS survives and you still have power!)

Stay safe everyone.  Hopefully it will miss you!  [tup]

Offline CW2274

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Re: Ian
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2022, 06:00:18 AM »
Wow! Ian exploded just before slamming Cuba. Amazing rapid intensification with the CDO so quickly evolving.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Cuba-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Offline davidmc36

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Re: Ian
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2022, 07:25:24 AM »
From a loose collection to sharp eye right over Cuba. It must be howling there now!

Seeing the aftermath of a Deroche that hit near here seemed to sharpen my imagination of what it must be like to get hit by such wind forces.

I heard comments that Ian may move quite slowly once near the peninsula.

Online DoctorKnow

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Re: Ian
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2022, 04:57:49 PM »
The latest I'm seeing is that Ian wants to come across FL and get back in the ocean for a time before turning back into SC near Charleston. Any opinions?

Offline CW2274

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Re: Ian
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2022, 06:16:47 PM »
I haven't seen any long term guidance, but the trough over the Great Lakes will be the deciding factor, which doesn't look to sag much further south. So, will it push it out to sea, or will it not be as influential and allow Ian to make landfall again. Sea surface temps will obviously not be a factor, but less favorable upper support may be. Looks kinda 50/50 to me. My 2 cents.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-09-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2022, 11:12:54 PM »
I am almost out of the cone.
Going to be a nothing burger here. :roll:
Next.
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Ian
« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2022, 11:17:00 PM »
Who knows, maybe you'll get to dodge an EF0 or 1... ;)

Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2022, 11:34:12 PM »
Who knows, maybe you'll get to dodge an EF0 or 1... ;)
Generally speaking the right front quadrant of TC's is where the T's usually form. I will be on the north side. Certainly not out of the question but not as common.
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Offline Jasiu

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Re: Ian
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2022, 08:04:52 AM »
Looking like a child of Charley, at least by track and intensity.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2022, 10:33:26 AM »
Looking like a child of Charley, at least by track and intensity.
Yes it does but certainly not the surprise Charley had when it made an abrupt right turn and caught everyone off guard.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2022, 12:20:46 PM »
Want to give a shout out to Chris at Capeweather.com. He's been a long time member here but doesn't post too much anymore. Right now Cape Coral is getting slammed by Ian.
Stay safe Chris.
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Ian
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2022, 04:59:33 PM »
Senior met at TPA WFO says 18' surge is still possible at high tide. This may very well turn out to be one of those events that changes the geography of the land permanently, especially considering where the eye came ashore.

Online DoctorKnow

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Re: Ian
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2022, 10:34:43 AM »
https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gifComplicated setup.

Offline ocala

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Re: Ian
« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2022, 10:39:29 AM »
New Smyrna Beach on the Atlantic side of Florida just posted a 28.60 rainfall from Ian for Cocorahs. :shock:
Here's the details section of the report.

Daily Precipitation Report   
Station Number: FL-VL-1
Station Name: New Smyrna Beach 1.5 E
Observation Date   9/29/2022 9:00 AM
Submitted   9/29/2022 10:25 AM
Gauge Catch
28.60 in.
Notes
Ian still giving us rain and wind. I've emptied the gauge three times since 6am yesterday, 9/28. Twice it was running over.
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Offline Jasiu

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Re: Ian
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2022, 10:51:10 AM »
Saw a CoCoRaHS report on Twitter from FL-LE-74 2.8 miles ESE of Ft Myers. 9.90in with a note that "At 4pm, my rain gauge is submerged in storm surge".
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