Author Topic: NWS Derecho Warnings  (Read 814 times)

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Offline K2GW

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NWS Derecho Warnings
« on: August 10, 2020, 09:05:00 PM »
Since a Derecho has to run for 250 miles before it is deemed to exist, a “Derecho Watch” or “Derecho Warning” isn’t very practical. 

But perhaps we need an “Extreme Thunderstorm Watch” and “Extreme Thunderstorm Warning” for when straightline winds from such events are expected to exceed 72 MPH.  I arbitrarily picked the term “Extreme” and 72 MPH since that is the same as a Cat 1 Hurricane and thus would get peoples attention and facilitate communication.

Thoughts?

Offline chief-david

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2020, 09:30:00 PM »
After today? Yes, I agree.
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2020, 10:08:19 PM »
I'm surprised TWC hasn't started naming them yet.
Greg Whitehead
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Offline tmabell

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2020, 04:42:18 PM »
Nothing needs to change with regard to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch product.  In extreme cases like yesterday, the SPC will add "PDS" to the watch properties.  PDS means "Particularly Dangerous Situation".  That term was used yesterday.  Concerning the warnings and Severe Weather Statements issued yesterday, they all had headlines included text that was very descriptive in order to drive home the severity of the storms.

Offline K2GW

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2020, 06:34:46 PM »
While you and I might know that, do you really think the average non-weather geek would know that “PDS” means “hide in a safe room like it is a tornado?”.  Without any coaching, ask your grandmother what PDS means.  Around here it means Princeton Day School.

 I think something more specific and quickly understandable by the lay public even if they rarely hear one issued.   “Extreme” is already used in heat advisories, so it’s already in the NWS lexicon, and an obvious step up from the “severe” level.

Online Jasiu

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2020, 06:42:07 PM »
I have to agree. At least in my neck of the woods, over 90% of the severe warned storms end up being not a big deal for a good chunk of the warned area, so it's a bit of "cry wolf". My own family asks me why I bother with the audible alarm on the radio for anything other than a tornado warning. It needs to be distinctly different from the run-of-the-mill STW.


Offline blizzardof78

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2020, 09:08:46 PM »
I'm not picking here but want the record straight, that Cat 1 Hurricanes must hit 74 MPH to be called a "Hurricane", not 72 MPH.

Since a Derecho has to run for 250 miles before it is deemed to exist, a “Derecho Watch” or “Derecho Warning” isn’t very practical. 

But perhaps we need an “Extreme Thunderstorm Watch” and “Extreme Thunderstorm Warning” for when straightline winds from such events are expected to exceed 72 MPH.  I arbitrarily picked the term “Extreme” and 72 MPH since that is the same as a Cat 1 Hurricane and thus would get peoples attention and facilitate communication.

Thoughts?

Offline K2GW

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2020, 09:34:41 PM »
Thanks, Don for finding my typo. 74 MPH is what it should be. 

The logic of aligning the two events to the same wind speed threshold allows quick recognition of the danger involved, even to the unsophisticated.

You can imagine local newscasters then saying something like “The National Weather Service has issued an Extreme Thunderstorm Warning for Podunk County.  Winds in excess of Hurricane Force are expected.  Take cover immediately in a secure inner room.”

Offline ocala

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2020, 07:44:02 PM »
I have to agree. At least in my neck of the woods, over 90% of the severe warned storms end up being not a big deal for a good chunk of the warned area, so it's a bit of "cry wolf". My own family asks me why I bother with the audible alarm on the radio for anything other than a tornado warning. It needs to be distinctly different from the run-of-the-mill STW.
Agree in regards to the severe warnings. Rarely, if ever, anything happens.
However trying to warn the public about a PDS with a different type of notification is pointless. People will not take notice. They just won't.

Offline CW2274

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2020, 08:18:54 PM »
I have to agree. At least in my neck of the woods, over 90% of the severe warned storms end up being not a big deal for a good chunk of the warned area, so it's a bit of "cry wolf". My own family asks me why I bother with the audible alarm on the radio for anything other than a tornado warning. It needs to be distinctly different from the run-of-the-mill STW.
Agree in regards to the severe warnings. Rarely, if ever, anything happens.
Tell that to folks that are in the prone locations of the country. Squalls/bows/QLCS/ that are severe warned on usually effect all with severe conditions at some point that are in the path. Dismissal is foolish.

I have to agree. At least in my neck of the woods, over 90% of the severe warned storms end up being not a big deal for a good chunk of the warned area, so it's a bit of "cry wolf". My own family asks me why I bother with the audible alarm on the radio for anything other than a tornado warning. It needs to be distinctly different from the run-of-the-mill STW.

However trying to warn the public about a PDS with a different type of notification is pointless. People will not take notice. They just won't.
Yes, a PDS is something that only very few will be privy to. Either you're aware of your potential wx conditions or you're not.

Offline tmabell

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2020, 08:29:24 PM »
The text of these warnings is usually pretty clear on the hazard and the danger.  If people would just read them  ](*,)

Offline K2GW

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2020, 11:39:47 PM »
>>"The text of these warnings is usually pretty clear on the hazard and the danger.  If people would just read them"

As you have correctly pointed out, they don't read them nor know about them because they are not weather geeks like us.  They only react when it's pushed to them. 

I believe current Severe Thunderstorms Warnings (even those with an embedded PDS text)  do not trigger an automatic alert on their cellphones as a Tornado Warning does.  And nor should they as most people within the warned area of a routine Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will probably not be in a life or death threat from the storm and it would then result in "cry wolf" reaction.

That's why I propose a higher level of alert for those rare Extreme Thunderstorms generating winds in excess of 74 MPH that will result in such a cellphone activation to get peoples attention to take cover and save lives.

Online Jasiu

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2020, 09:08:52 AM »
That's why I propose a higher level of alert for those rare Extreme Thunderstorms generating winds in excess of 74 MPH that will result in such a cellphone activation to get peoples attention to take cover and save lives.

In many locales, a tornado warning also means all broadcast TV stations in the area cut into programming and stay on the air with their weather peeps (often drawing the ire of viewers - I have no sympathy for the complainers) until the warning is over. This event should result in the same thing.

Offline chief-david

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2020, 09:26:21 AM »
A few nuggets to put this storm in perspective. We talk about weather here, but rarely the results.

KCCI-Tuesday.
Quote
Early estimates indicate that 10 million acres of farmland was flatted Monday during the derecho, according to Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Reynolds said during her Tuesday news conference that the state estimates at least one third of Iowa crops sustained damage during the severe storms.

The devastation comes as a second blow to Iowa farmers already dealing with a trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic.


Jasper County farmer Brian Rumbaugh said Monday’s storm flattened most of his 450 acres of corn, destroying what he said would have been a good crop.

Rumbaugh said he has never seen a natural disaster comparable to the derecho in his 50 years of farming.

“This is the worst one I've ever had,” he said. “We had tornadoes go through a while back, tornadoes 300-400 feet wide, (but) this was everything.”

Rumbaugh said his crop insurance will likely make up for some of the losses, though other farmers may not be as lucky.

“It's probably 30-40 years I've had it, and thank God,” he said. “That's what you have insurance for is a failsafe, but I've never collected a dime … which is good. Now they owe me.”

State officials said farmers may be eligible for federal assistance as the state continues to assess storm damage

“A part of that federal assistance could be a Small Business Administration declaration or a U.S. Secretary of Agriculture designation, which provides resources for impacted farmers,” said Joyce Flinn, with Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Despite 2020’s misfortunes, Rumbaugh said he has been farming long enough to know that, eventually, things will get better.

“It is what it is,” he said. “You live long enough to learn it's not always cherries.”

Reynolds said the state’s 10-million-acre damage estimate could change as damage surveying continues.

The governor plans to do a flyover of Iowa cropland in the coming days to survey the damage.


To my knowledge-this is now worthless.
Twitter-Jim Smith the corn was suffering  from the drought. Then we got a little rain last week. And now this. All eight of my corn fields look this flat and quite a bit of it snapped not just leaning.



Quote
If you (conservatively) estimate 200 bu corn and 60 bushel beans on a 50/50 split thats a billion bushels of corn and 300 million beans.




Also, as of today 250,000 Iowans still without power. Know of someone on the Chiefs forum said it will be at least Tuesday of next week.

Personally, lucky that it missed our farm. Renter says that all buildings and corn are vertical.
Still waiting to hear from Aardvark. He was in the middle of it in Des Moines.

Maybe Andy can chime in on what the options are for the crops.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 09:29:37 AM by chief-david »
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Offline chief-david

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2020, 09:48:30 AM »
MCCALLSBURG, Iowa —
Towns around Ames are struggling with more than just power. McCallsburg is one place where the city said conserving water is vital.

Residents were happy Wednesday morning as power was returned in McCallsburg, but water is the next concern. The city released a statement on its Facebook page that reads in part, "another reminder to conserve water... All we have is what's in the tower."

"We haven't really been using a lot of water. Anyway, it's not fun to take a shower with cold water so it makes sense to conserve what we have," said Kaia Hopkins, a resident.

The city estimates it may take up to 10 days for things to return to normal.

"You have no idea when power is coming back you know. You don't have power to fill the water tower. You don't have water so you have to conserve what you have," said Jesse Richardson, a resident.

Wednesday afternoon the city posted on its Facebook page that water was being pumped into the tower, but still urges residents to conserve water.
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Offline floodcaster

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2020, 10:21:47 AM »
If anything, the NWS is trying to streamline or reduce the number of products issued due to user confusion and concerns regarding too many products. However, a recent proposal to add severe thunderstorms that are forecast to be particularly dangerous to wireless emergency alerts I think is a good idea.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/01/severe-thunderstorm-wireless-alerts/
Bill


Offline K6GKM

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2020, 03:41:07 PM »
I'd actually read up on this topic a few weeks before the Derecho event in the midwest.  There is a NWS Warning product that exists... an Extreme Wind Warning.  The early genesis of this product was the unconventional use of a Tornado Warning header containing information about the onset of life-threatening winds associated with Hurricane Charley in 2004.  The issuance of the information under the TOR heading gave the special bulletins higher visibility and urgency.  These special TOR products used for extreme winds were issued along the gulf coast for several tropical events through 2016, when the Extreme Wind Warning (SAME Code EWW) was standardized.  It's only ever been issued 8 times since 2016, and always in response to hurricane events along the gulf/atlantic coast...so far.

The thresholds of 100 knots / 115 mph is pretty high, and the winds experienced in the midwest during the Derecho event didn't meet that threshold, but the product does exist.

-Grant



I did a little more reading on the August 10th event, and yeah, the winds experienced would have warranted an Extreme Wind Warning.  Why it wasn't issued is anyone's guess.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2020, 10:27:06 PM by K6GKM »

Offline K2GW

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2020, 09:33:17 PM »
Thanks.  Extreme Wind Warning would work. 

Perhaps the threshold needs to be reworked to be used for non-Hurricane or Tornado caused winds in excess of 74 MPH. That would make the threshold the same as a hurricane which enhances communication of the seriousness to the lay public.

Offline MchWxEnthusiast

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2020, 11:04:08 AM »
(Old Topic, I know) That derecho had winds of a Cat 4 Hurricane in some parts but mainly a Cat 3 and below. It should've gotten an Extreme Wind Warning or Something to a Hurricane Warning.
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Online Jasiu

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2020, 03:47:19 PM »
There is also a marine alert called "Hurricane Force Wind Warning" which is to convey 74mph+ winds (sustained or frequent gusts) when not connected to a tropical cyclone. Seems like that's the exact sort of wording that would catch attention.

Offline MchWxEnthusiast

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2020, 02:55:25 PM »
Yeah, I Was thinking that but that's only for marine. Mainly though a High Wind Warning would need to be issued to accompany that.
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Offline ocala

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Re: NWS Derecho Warnings
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2020, 04:08:06 PM »
MCCALLSBURG, Iowa —
Towns around Ames are struggling with more than just power. McCallsburg is one place where the city said conserving water is vital.

Residents were happy Wednesday morning as power was returned in McCallsburg, but water is the next concern. The city released a statement on its Facebook page that reads in part, "another reminder to conserve water... All we have is what's in the tower."

"We haven't really been using a lot of water. Anyway, it's not fun to take a shower with cold water so it makes sense to conserve what we have," said Kaia Hopkins, a resident.

The city estimates it may take up to 10 days for things to return to normal.

"You have no idea when power is coming back you know. You don't have power to fill the water tower. You don't have water so you have to conserve what you have," said Jesse Richardson, a resident.

Wednesday afternoon the city posted on its Facebook page that water was being pumped into the tower, but still urges residents to conserve water.
Small town I know but you would think they would have a genny back up to fill the tower for power outages.