Author Topic: Spring/Summer '20  (Read 5775 times)

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Offline Bunty

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #150 on: May 17, 2020, 06:00:34 PM »
As it turned out in the real world, the rainfall amounts predicted weren't generally far off base in much of the southeast quarter of the state, along with part of the northeast, but were well off in my part of the state, the north central.  A large part of the southwest got much more rain than forecast.





« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 06:11:47 PM by Bunty »

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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #151 on: May 17, 2020, 11:03:40 PM »
We've got some heavy rainfall on the way here - pesky upper level low. They're quite a challenge to forecast.
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #152 on: May 18, 2020, 11:51:04 AM »
There's an upper level low forming in the area and it's going to get stalled by that storm coming up the east coast, so it's going to be a wet few days.  Wouldn't you know it?  I have the days off, so of course it has to rain.  :(
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #153 on: May 18, 2020, 01:20:47 PM »
What's wrong with this?  I know what's wrong the ambient temperature reads +2 high so it alters the humidity to read low.
The KVTN ASOS continues to be globally warmed +2f so we never experience any RH above 93% and I mean never. Its been like this for a couple of years now. Ice storms that never reach freezing is another phenomena with the KVTN ASOS at Valentine.
I checked other ASOS in the area Broken Bow reached 100%, North Platte reached 100% without fog but we continue to read-only 93% no matter how dense or long the fog event last like today over 4 hours extremely dense where you could barely see across the road. 
Visibility even got to zero once the negative reading I highlighted.  I also highlight the RH column for reference.

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Randy

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #154 on: May 21, 2020, 11:06:30 AM »
It's been a pretty wet few days in my area from this pesky cutoff upper level low. Not gonna lie - cutoffs are tough to forecast - they bobble 50 miles one way, and it can really bust a forecast. So far, forecasts for this one have gone alright, but it's not easy! Most areas saw 1-2" of rain yesterday, which has caused a few high water spots. Thankfully nothing too crazy like over in Midland, MI from the dam failure yet - although the Roanoke, VA area seems to have gotten hit pretty hard.
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #155 on: May 21, 2020, 03:33:34 PM »
It's been a pretty wet few days in my area from this pesky cutoff upper level low. Not gonna lie - cutoffs are tough to forecast - they bobble 50 miles one way, and it can really bust a forecast.
Yeah, you guys don't get to see them much back east, and this one has really hung around too. They're fairly common out here in the SW, especially in the colder months. You know the saying "A cutoff low is a weatherman's woe"...

Offline Bunty

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #156 on: May 22, 2020, 02:02:09 PM »
In this video link, the Stillwater Emergency Management Director takes a look at wind damage in Stillwater, mostly to trees,  from a severe storm that happened early Friday morning.  Gusts were up to 60 mi. in town.  Wind gusted to 34.5 mi at my house.  The only sign of damage was some twigs in my front yard from a large pin oak tree.   Interesting point at 16:55, stroke a lightning before coming up to big tree down across half of 12th Ave.  Good thing it didn't fall on house.

https://stillwaterweather.com/severestormmay22-20

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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #157 on: May 22, 2020, 03:31:47 PM »
It's been a pretty wet few days in my area from this pesky cutoff upper level low. Not gonna lie - cutoffs are tough to forecast - they bobble 50 miles one way, and it can really bust a forecast.
Yeah, you guys don't get to see them much back east, and this one has really hung around too. They're fairly common out here in the SW, especially in the colder months. You know the saying "A cutoff low is a weatherman's woe"...

No doubt - definitely underestimated the amount of sunshine we'd have here being directly under the cutoff low today - but these are things I always write down for next time (and thankfully I haven't done a forecast since Monday, so no harm on my accuracy at the station  8-) )
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-2000
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
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Offline Notsorusty

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Re: Spring/Summer '20
« Reply #158 on: May 26, 2020, 04:50:40 PM »
I blinked and missed spring.

May 9, 3:55 am - 27.7 F
May 24, 5:15 pm - 90.1 F

This spell of July weather should end on Thursday evening.   #-o
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