Author Topic: Fall/Winter '19/'20  (Read 8783 times)

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #175 on: January 15, 2020, 03:05:16 PM »
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.
My WFO usually tends to lean on the Euro as well.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #176 on: January 15, 2020, 03:11:22 PM »
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.

Just how closely are NWS forecasters held to these models?
Technically they're not, but models are the way it's "done" nowadays. The forecaster uses his or her skill/experience to determine which if any model(s) is more "correct" than the other. Most often a blend is used unless one or more are determined to be out in left field.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #177 on: January 15, 2020, 04:27:22 PM »
I posted this somewhere before the ECMWF is now available to the public. They are asking for donations to keep free.  It really does do a good job in my area, my main beef sometimes it overdoes snowfall and precip in general but its great at advertising where it will occur correctly before other models.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019110300&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=
Randy

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #178 on: January 16, 2020, 05:41:59 AM »
The NWS folks over in my area (Charleston) tend to blend models more than pick one individual model out. I work pretty closely with them being in TV weather - I tend to put a lot of focus on micro-climates as well, since we have several in the Appalachians. For example, models tend to usually overestimate snow in the lowlands in West Virginia, but an inverted trough with southern storms almost always 'warm wedges' us to where temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than model guidances - and thus little to no snow. The NWS does this quite a bit too as well in my region.

There's no doubt that the Euro is the better model, but I would be wary of using any one particular model for anything really. I look at as much data (both current and model) both at the surface and especially in the upper levels as possible, and I still use programs like Bufkit to get a better understanding of the atmosphere so that all the puzzle pieces fit when I'm trying to explain the forecast to the public on TV.
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #179 on: January 16, 2020, 08:22:01 AM »
Farmtalk, I have a strong feeling that NWS forecasters who know their region and model shortcomings and strengths would do what you do.

Thanks for the reply

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #180 on: January 16, 2020, 11:42:11 AM »
I definitely love my analysis! I do at least a surface hand analysis every day - I do some upper air ones as well with time permitting. A lot of radio obligations, web work, etc. makes it tough sometimes, but I like to stay busy. Pretty impressive pressure gradient this morning is making for some gusty winds in the mid-atlantic area. A few wind advisories are up! 8-)
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #181 on: January 16, 2020, 04:41:27 PM »
What I'm talking about is some will start talking about a snowstorm 6 days out based on the GFS.  From my own model watching experience if the Euro isn't on the same page it's not even worth mentioning because it won't happen.  I have no problem with model blending.
Randy

Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #182 on: January 16, 2020, 11:25:24 PM »
Stillwater barely staying out of the freezing rain line tonight.  Fortunately, temperature expected to remain above freezing for the rest of the night. But the northwest quarter of the state isn't as fortunate.  I-40 a little to the west of Oklahoma City is slick and hazardous with a multi pile up near Weatherford.  In Stillwater, as much as 1.5" of rain is forecast before it ends Friday afternoon.  That a good cold rain for a January.

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Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #183 on: January 18, 2020, 12:27:16 AM »
The midsection of Oklahoma, centered along the I-44 corridor,  got generous amounts of cold rain on Jan. 16 and 17.   All three metros got over an inch.  1.22" fell here.  10 miles south of here got 1.74"  More rain is in the forecast later this month.  Winter remains drought free here.   

« Last Edit: January 18, 2020, 02:26:09 AM by Bunty »

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Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #184 on: January 27, 2020, 04:33:40 AM »
With help from models, meteorologist Aaron Tuttle discusses how much snow Oklahoma may get on Tuesday: https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/2652516631701569/?notif_id=1580095720609056&notif_t=live_video_explicit

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Offline Notsorusty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #185 on: January 29, 2020, 02:39:51 PM »
Will the sun ever shine again??  Chicago area NWS report from this morning:

Through Saturday...

Persistence appears to be the way to go with the forecast. Broad
upper trough over the region with subtle/weak shortwave troughs
rippling through the area at somewhat regular interval. Each
trough looks to be lacking moisture and likely only providing some
modest ascent. Our CWA looks to be close to smack dab in the
middle of a persistent stratus deck that looks like it covers at
least 25% of the Lower 48. No indication that anything will result
in clearing out of this stratus through Saturday with minimal
subsidence and negligible advection.


We last saw the sun on Jan 21st.    :-(
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925° N, -87.872° W
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State: IL
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #186 on: January 29, 2020, 07:36:29 PM »
NWS Forecast Discussions seem to be having a glitch. Many have not been updated since this morning, and those that have been updated have a different type font/appearance

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #187 on: January 29, 2020, 07:44:08 PM »
NWS Forecast Discussions seem to be having a glitch. Many have not been updated since this morning, and those that have been updated have a different type font/appearance
I actually noticed it yesterday and called my WFO and she was clueless. It appears (at least for me) the link has changed. Here's my new link, whether it helps you navigate to yours happily... :?:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=afdtwc&wfo=twc&new

Offline BKS97

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #188 on: January 31, 2020, 01:26:54 PM »

Today marks our tenth consecutive day of complete cloud cover with daytime temperatures in the 20s.  Earlier this week the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources posted this comment in its Climate Journal:

“Weather in January can range from clear and crisp to cloudy and gloomy. January 2020 is following the latter. So far though January 27, January 2020 has had the least amount of solar radiation for a January since solar radiation records began at the U of M St. Paul Campus Climate Observatory in 1963.”

A year ago in these parts our days were mostly sunny — but daytime temperatures sometimes failed to make it above zero.  On the morning of Jan. 31 - exactly one year ago — my weather station display at Hackensack showed a temperature of -47 F.  The sky was clear and the wind calm.

Given the choice of these extremes — cloudy, gloomy and relatively mild vs. sunny, calm and frigid — I’d gladly settle for something in between.  The good news is that the forecast for this weekend may bring us just that — highs in the upper 30s and low 40s along with some peeks of sunshine!

Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #189 on: January 31, 2020, 11:33:45 PM »
For here, I don't think the weather has been any more cloudy and gloomy than usual, even though it rained more than usual at 2.83".  Normal is 1. 3" and normally the driest month.

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Offline Notsorusty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #190 on: February 01, 2020, 01:33:39 PM »
An unidentified extremely bright object was spotted in the sky over Chicago this morning. The authorities have been notified!

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But it is gone now.   :-(   It was last seen 9 days agol
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925° N, -87.872° W
Elevation: 633
City: Franklin Park
State: IL
Hardware: Ambient Weather WS-2902
Software: AMBWeatherV4.0.0

Offline ocala

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #191 on: February 01, 2020, 02:17:05 PM »
Been winter like down here the past couple weeks. 60/40.
Although, the NWS  did schedule an 80 for this Wednesday with some possible severe weather for Thursday.

Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #192 on: February 04, 2020, 01:42:36 PM »
Winter storm warning diagnally through the middle of Oklahoma until Thursday.  All three metros in it.  Snow totals 4-6" with more in the southwest.


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Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #193 on: February 04, 2020, 02:36:34 PM »
He calls it a nightmare to forecast, but OKC meteorologist Aaron Tuttle on Twitter sees more of a sleet/freezing rain mix Wednesday morning, meaning less snow, but still enough to count.  But as one response put it, "Are we inching toward a non-event?" ha, ha.

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #194 on: February 04, 2020, 04:40:23 PM »
Cold sunshine today, barely made it into the 50's. Certain recipe tonight for the coldest night of the season, no clouds, no wind, crashing dew points. Looking at mid 20's tonight...maybe even colder. Gotta remember to drip the ole spigot...

Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #195 on: February 05, 2020, 12:55:40 PM »
Winter scene Wed. morning at OSU library in Stillwater.    Around 4 in. of snow fell. Classes canceled.   Projected amount of snow wasn't off.  Tickets to tonight's OSU vs TCU(Texas Christian University) basketball game will be free. Go Cowboys!

Oklahoma City officially had 4.6", which beat the daily record of 2.3".   Click for live scene at OSU library:  https://stillwaterweather.com/osulibrarywebcam

« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 02:02:30 PM by Bunty »

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #196 on: February 12, 2020, 05:33:57 PM »
Been a rather ho-hum winter with nothing much to write home about. 25" of snow so far.
Windchill expected in the -20 to -25 range tonight as we drop below zero.
Currently sunny this afternoon with WC at  -9F (-23C)
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Randy

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #197 on: February 13, 2020, 05:40:58 AM »
WC in the -20 range hasn't occurred. At 4:40 AM (-9)F but no wind, it's dead calm so WC  also (-9)
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Randy

Offline zackdog

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #198 on: February 19, 2020, 08:11:02 PM »
February hasn't been real cold, but the snow has been terrible.  I've been keeping track of snowfall since 2007.  Average for the month is 20.5", lowest 8.5", and highest 30.0".  So far this February I have had 46.5" with 10 days left in the month.  Hoping it lets up soon.

Mark
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #199 on: February 25, 2020, 09:38:10 AM »
A nice 8.9" snowfall after midnight this morning. This was a narrow and intense band that we just happened to be under. Moisture .54"