Author Topic: Fall/Winter '19/'20  (Read 8782 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Fall/Winter '19/'20
« on: September 23, 2019, 05:49:16 AM »
The first day of fall also ushered in our first 30's. So far 38F this morning at my PWS located on NE side of Valentine.
Here are average frost and freeze dates for the region from the Omaha NWS website.  https://www.weather.gov/oax/freeze
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Randy

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2019, 06:16:26 AM »
This morning I'm testing out the new heat pump installed on house. Not my choice of heating for this climate when you can purchase propane in summer for around $1.20 a gallon currently.
Anyway, the heat pump is warming the 40F air to 94F at the duct vent without strip heaters. Not bad I guess but once temperatures drop below about 25F approximate balance point electric strip heaters will need to supplement. COP on heat pump runs about 2.9 or 290% efficiency at 17F.  What's scary they install 2-15kW (60 amps each) strip heaters for this climate which will spin the meter like a top when both are needed at -20F.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2019, 07:59:14 AM by ValentineWeather »
Randy

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2019, 02:50:09 PM »
This is some rarefied air for us down here using the "E" word. Even Dorothy and Toto are taking notice of the 2% chance.. 8-[


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2019, 02:57:33 PM »
This morning I'm testing out the new heat pump installed on house.
My first house here in Tucson had a heat pump, worked great in the summer, but in the winter, not so much. If it got into the 40's, it couldn't warm the house worth a damn, even with the strips. I'm sure however that the technology has improved since as this house was built in 1988 or could have simply been an inefficient/cheap one.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2019, 04:20:57 PM »
This is some rarefied air for us down here using the "E" word. Even Dorothy and Toto are taking notice of the 2% chance.. 8-[


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Wow! you don't see that often. I do remember a big tornactic outbreak in October one year, what made it so rare was the tornadoes developed along the mountainous region SW of Flagstaff.  They had multiple paths of downed trees some going 35 miles long up to 1/4 mile wide. We elk hunted the same area a few weeks later in November and were amazed by the downed trees and how clear it was to see each tornado path.
Randy

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2019, 04:30:33 PM »
In 1964 we had an F2 kill two here. Super rare.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2019, 04:06:56 PM »
Local WFO confirmed EF1 in Willcox, about 40 miles east of Tucson. Some injuries, apparently some pets were killed.

Offline Bunty

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2215
  • Stillwater, home of Oklahoma State University
    • Welcome to Stillwater Weather
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2019, 03:26:03 AM »
The first day of fall also ushered in our first 30's. So far 38F this morning at my PWS located on NE side of Valentine.
Here are average frost and freeze dates for the region from the Omaha NWS website.  https://www.weather.gov/oax/freeze
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

I can't imagine having temps in the 30s in September.  I can for October.

Also the 2nd home page using modified AltDashboard 6.95 at http://stillwaterweather.com/wx/2ndhome.php

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2019, 05:11:25 AM »
Here is the Cutbank Montana Forecast:  :-P

SaturdaySnow. Patchy blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday NightSnow. Patchy blowing snow between midnight and 3am. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Randy

Offline Notsorusty

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 121
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2019, 09:03:21 AM »
Some good creative writing from the Chicago NWS Office (Rodriguez Carlaw):

"The main focus on the long term portion of the forecast remains on
the Friday morning through overnight period as the next series of
disturbances rotating across the region. Pretty hard to believe
that a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is in
the offing here with widespread surface dewpoints in the 40s and
lower 40s in our newly-minted post-frontal regime, but a notable
airmass change is in the cards as we work into Friday."


No typos either.

Corrected author above.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 10:13:10 AM by Notsorusty »
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925 N, -87.872 W
Elevation: 633
City: Franklin Park
State: IL
Hardware: Ambient Weather WS-2902
Software: AMBWeatherV4.0.0

Online chief-david

  • Educational Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2521
  • Space Academy for Educators
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2019, 10:35:45 AM »
Here is the Cutbank Montana Forecast:  :-P

SaturdaySnow. Patchy blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday NightSnow. Patchy blowing snow between midnight and 3am. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Whoa
You can't phase me-I teach Middle School.
It's not you-It's WU.

Offline Notsorusty

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 121
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2019, 08:54:04 PM »
Some interesting weather coming up:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 27 2019 - 00Z Sun Sep 29 2019

...Early season snowstorm with heavy snow and strong winds likely for the Northern Rockies...

...Huge temperature contrasts across the nation.  Much below average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest, Northern Great Basin, California and into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.  Much above average temperatures expected from the Central to Southern Plains, eastward into the East...

...Heavy rain, localized flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible across the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday...

The battle of the seasons will be underway across the nation over the next few days with much below average temperatures developing from the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, California, into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, while much above average temperatures dominate from the Central to Southern Plains into the East.  An amplifying mid to upper level low will be the main driver of the cold Western U.S. weather pattern over the next few days as it deepens across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin, spreading much below average temperatures as far south as Southern California and eastward into the Great Basin, Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.  This system will also be responsible for the developing major winter storm across the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains beginning Friday night and continuing through the weekend.  The greatest snowfall totals expected across northwest Montana where 1 to 3 feet of snow is forecast, along with high winds that will produce blizzard conditions.


YIKES!
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925 N, -87.872 W
Elevation: 633
City: Franklin Park
State: IL
Hardware: Ambient Weather WS-2902
Software: AMBWeatherV4.0.0

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2019, 07:39:23 AM »
Montana is in for a major storm looking at this. Cutbank could get 30" with some areas 50". 

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Randy

Offline Notsorusty

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 121
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2019, 03:44:13 PM »
Would that be this guy?

Mike Morgan, an accredited meteorologist with KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, twice called for all residents of South Oklahoma City to 'flee their homes' and 'drive south' when a tornado approached the area on the evening of 31 May 2013. Mr. Morgan described a 'mile-wide debris ball' headed their way . . .
. . . Mr. Morgan's calls for the hundreds of thousands of residents of South Oklahoma City to flee their homes was dangerous, negligent, misleading, and counter to commonly held tornado advice. It was beneath the standards set by the American Meteorological Society, through which Mr. Morgan is accredited.


I guess he didn't get fired yet.

We have a similar guy in Chicago who is always overstating and exaggerating storms. Next day nothing happens, false alarm, again.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2019, 03:48:33 PM by Notsorusty »
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925 N, -87.872 W
Elevation: 633
City: Franklin Park
State: IL
Hardware: Ambient Weather WS-2902
Software: AMBWeatherV4.0.0

Offline Bunty

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2215
  • Stillwater, home of Oklahoma State University
    • Welcome to Stillwater Weather
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2019, 03:46:01 PM »
The average low for September here is around 63.  Yet it's only been down to a low of 64 during September at my station. On the 27th, it got up to 92, kinda unusual for this late in September.  As time goes on, it will be interesting to see if this warming trend stays up through winter and maybe KFOR's chief weatherman Mike Morgan next spring will be saying how the averages have been up every month since September.

Also the 2nd home page using modified AltDashboard 6.95 at http://stillwaterweather.com/wx/2ndhome.php

Offline Bunty

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2215
  • Stillwater, home of Oklahoma State University
    • Welcome to Stillwater Weather
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2019, 03:57:01 PM »
Would that be this guy?

Mike Morgan, an accredited meteorologist with KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, twice called for all residents of South Oklahoma City to 'flee their homes' and 'drive south' when a tornado approached the area on the evening of 31 May 2013. Mr. Morgan described a 'mile-wide debris ball' headed their way . . .
. . . Mr. Morgan's calls for the hundreds of thousands of residents of South Oklahoma City to flee their homes was dangerous, negligent, misleading, and counter to commonly held tornado advice. It was beneath the standards set by the American Meteorological Society, through which Mr. Morgan is accredited.

Yes, it's that guy and not fired. But I bet he has visited neighborhoods after they were struck by a F5 tornado and was aghast to see nothing was left of houses but the concrete slab foundations.   It's hard to survive going through such massive destruction, or keep from being badly hurt,  so I don't blame Morgan for giving out that advice.   He saw another F5 tornado threat.  You simply have to balance out which is safer to do when a F5 tornado may be coming.  Stay at home and hope for the best.  Or panic and crowd the highways headed south and hope you don't get stalled from traffic congestion with a tornado coming.  Fortunately, F5 tornadoes are rare.   So I don't panic, I live with the situation by having a reinforced safe room in my home to go to.   Three of my neighbors have storm cellars in their backyards.  The need of doing that was reflective of how Oklahoma was never the same after the Moore F5 tornado of 1999 killed 36 people and injured 583.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2019, 04:14:51 PM by Bunty »

Also the 2nd home page using modified AltDashboard 6.95 at http://stillwaterweather.com/wx/2ndhome.php

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2019, 04:12:59 PM »
Would that be this guy?

Mike Morgan, an accredited meteorologist with KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, twice called for all residents of South Oklahoma City to 'flee their homes' and 'drive south' when a tornado approached the area on the evening of 31 May 2013. Mr. Morgan described a 'mile-wide debris ball' headed their way . . .
. . . Mr. Morgan's calls for the hundreds of thousands of residents of South Oklahoma City to flee their homes was dangerous, negligent, misleading, and counter to commonly held tornado advice. It was beneath the standards set by the American Meteorological Society, through which Mr. Morgan is accredited.

Yes, it's that guy and not fired. But I bet he has visited neighborhoods after they were struck by a F5 tornado and was aghast to see nothing was left of houses but the concrete slab foundations.   A number of people can't survive going through such massive destruction, so I don't blame Morgan for giving out that advice.   He saw another tornado F5 coming.  You simply have to balance out which is safer to do when a F5 tornado may be coming.  Stay at home and hope for the best.  Or panic and crowd the highways headed south and hope you don't get stalled from traffic congestion with a tornado coming.  Fortunately, F5 tornadoes are rare.
Personally, I think that's the most stupid, irresponsible thing I've ever heard. If you live in the tornado capital of the world, and not just in frequency but intensity as well...and don't have a place to be underground, then you deserve to be swept away. Sending people out of their homes like maniacs is just another disaster in the making. :roll:

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2019, 04:22:36 PM »
Agree on the TV guy, totally irresponsible. But many can't just pack up and leave for various reasons if they don't have a storm shelter nearby or can't afford to build one.   
Randy

Offline Bunty

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2215
  • Stillwater, home of Oklahoma State University
    • Welcome to Stillwater Weather
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2019, 04:26:31 PM »
Here Morgan is telling people to go underground or go south.


Also the 2nd home page using modified AltDashboard 6.95 at http://stillwaterweather.com/wx/2ndhome.php

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2019, 04:33:43 PM »
But many can't just pack up and leave for various reasons if they don't have a storm shelter nearby or can't afford to build one.
Oh, I get that. My problem a public figure telling people to head for the hills in droves instead of the individuals themselves. Tornadoes can be very unpredictable...just ask the three Twistex team members that died in the 2013 El Reno one. I'd hate to be the guy that sends dozens of people to their death because of bad advice, let alone all the potential legal action after the fact.

Offline Notsorusty

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 121
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2019, 04:53:39 PM »
I understand the dilemma that people face in the various places in this country. I believe that in Kansas and Oklahoma you can't dig deeper than 2 feet without hitting bedrock (no basements possible and very expensive underground bunkers). People also live in Florida, Louisiana and Texas with the threat of hurricanes. California folks have to deal with earthquakes and fires. The best you can do is prepare as safe a place as possible for your family and hope for the best. But sounding an alarm that potentially puts more people in harms way is totally irresponsible.
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925 N, -87.872 W
Elevation: 633
City: Franklin Park
State: IL
Hardware: Ambient Weather WS-2902
Software: AMBWeatherV4.0.0

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2019, 04:57:25 PM »
Speaking of the El Reno storm, I just read this from Wiki:

Alongside rush hour traffic, thousands of residents in Oklahoma City attempted to outrun the storm by taking to the roads in an attempt to drive out of the tornado's projected path. By attempting to escape the storm by vehicle, in direct contrast to the recommended plan of action, residents put themselves at great risk from the storm; had the tornado maintained itself and passed over the congested freeways, more than 500 lives could have been lost.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 5453
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2019, 08:36:26 PM »
But many can't just pack up and leave for various reasons if they don't have a storm shelter nearby or can't afford to build one.
Oh, I get that. My problem a public figure telling people to head for the hills in droves instead of the individuals themselves. Tornadoes can be very unpredictable...just ask the three Twistex team members that died in the 2013 El Reno one. I'd hate to be the guy that sends dozens of people to their death because of bad advice, let alone all the potential legal action after the fact.
My lack of full comprehension to Notsorusty's reply #13, I now see that the El Reno tornado is the one this brain surgeon told everyone to run from...I thought it was another.
Wow....point made x2. How is this guy still employed?? :!:

Online chief-david

  • Educational Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2521
  • Space Academy for Educators
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2019, 06:28:55 PM »
Had to put in the Fall thread because it is fall

Its 87 degrees now in Redwood Falls,mn ... while its 57 degrees in Ortonville, mn less than 90 miles away. THAT is one heck of a temperature change.
You can't phase me-I teach Middle School.
It's not you-It's WU.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6155
    • LiVE WEATHER
Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2019, 05:54:02 AM »
Very little coverage nationally covering the record September snowfall in Montana.

Here are a few record lows being reported.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Randy