Author Topic: Dorian  (Read 3917 times)

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Offline vreihen

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #100 on: September 06, 2019, 08:01:26 PM »
The talking heads on one of the NYC TV stations showed a map tonight forecasting that Dorian would strengthen from a Cat1 back to a Cat2 off the coast of NJ tonight.  Apparently the ocean is that warm.....
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #101 on: September 06, 2019, 08:41:54 PM »
The talking heads on one of the NYC TV stations showed a map tonight forecasting that Dorian would strengthen from a Cat1 back to a Cat2 off the coast of NJ tonight.  Apparently the ocean is that warm.....
Even if, the upper low over Lake Ontario will push it further out to sea, everyone on this side of the pond is done with it. Maybe Europe can have some fun with it.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #102 on: September 06, 2019, 09:29:18 PM »
Even if, the upper low over Lake Ontario will push it further out to sea, everyone on this side of the pond is done with it.

Doesn't appear that way for The Maritimes.

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #103 on: September 06, 2019, 10:04:56 PM »
Even if, the upper low over Lake Ontario will push it further out to sea, everyone on this side of the pond is done with it.

Doesn't appear that way for The Maritimes.
Yeah, that neck of the woods always sticks out further than I remember. It's moving along fine as usual at this latitude, so should hopefully be no more than a show.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #104 on: September 07, 2019, 07:32:55 AM »
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #105 on: September 07, 2019, 03:48:10 PM »
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Offline Jasiu

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #106 on: September 07, 2019, 03:58:27 PM »
CAT 2 now heading to Nova Scotia.

Online galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #107 on: September 07, 2019, 04:06:24 PM »
This storm is relentless. It weakens and then it strengthens. It might just go around the Atlantic for another loop. /s

I've seen storms make loops. Usually they are small loops. Has anyone ever heard of a storm go around wide and come back down after reaching Europe to warmer waters and then having another go at the Americas?

Someone should know how to research that.
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #108 on: September 07, 2019, 04:14:51 PM »
Has anyone ever heard of a storm go around wide and come back down after reaching Europe to warmer waters and then having another go at the Americas?
Not going to research it, but am fairly sure at least a semblance of this nature has occurred before.

Offline Notsorusty

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #109 on: September 08, 2019, 03:47:38 PM »
It will come around and make landfall in Alabama, check with The POTUS, he has the forecast maps.
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Offline alanb

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #110 on: September 08, 2019, 07:12:35 PM »
It will come around and make landfall in Alabama, check with The POTUS, he has the forecast maps.
I am surprised there hasn't been more discussion about this on the forum … not so much about what Trump said, but about the NOAA instructing their scientists to not contradict. It seems like a dangerous precedent when people need the most accurate information available about an approaching storm.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2019, 07:14:39 PM by alanb »
Alan

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #111 on: September 08, 2019, 08:43:13 PM »
At one time, models did have the track towards Alabama. NBC is a network of nonsense. If you even kept the cone going, it would have possibly impacted Alabama!

Offline alanb

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #112 on: September 08, 2019, 09:11:45 PM »
At one time, models did have the track towards Alabama. NBC is a network of nonsense. If you even kept the cone going, it would have possibly impacted Alabama!
Understood. I guess I was referring more about the reaction to NOAA than about what Trump said. https://www.apnews.com/e0680f910cdd43e4be257720e182948e. Sounds like a credibility hit against NOAA.
Alan

Online galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #113 on: September 08, 2019, 11:07:30 PM »
Yeah would have brought the subject up sooner, but talking politics is against the forum guidelines.

All you have to do is look at the first page of this forum and see capeweather's post and you can see the spaghetti models touching Alabama outside of the cone, no Sharpie needed.
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=37724.msg388100#msg388100

I frankly do not understand the media coverage of this story, nor POTUS reaction to it all, and NOAA and NWS. Like really sheez who the hell cares.

This much is true though....POTUS spoke with outdated (but 100% correct for the prior day) information on Sept 1st at 10:54 AM. Because by then the storm had already dog legged for up the center of Florida and up onto Georgia, missing Alabama. If you're gonna talk, you should have current information. Everyone knows that hurricane updates happen every 3 hours on the 8, 11, 2, 5 hours.

The whole mess with NOAA and NWS is nonsense. The story and the unbiased facts are clear to me. Why does't anyone report this? Both sides are wrong.

There I made sure this post was not politically biased or charged. I both supported POTUS and criticized him at the same time.
 
« Last Edit: September 08, 2019, 11:16:47 PM by galfert »
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #114 on: September 08, 2019, 11:24:38 PM »
I frankly do not understand the media coverage of this story
:lol: Where've you been?

Online galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #115 on: September 08, 2019, 11:40:39 PM »
I frankly do not understand the media coverage of this story
:lol: Where've you been?

I know. But I just can't believe that the media still thinks we are all idiots. How long can they keep this up?

I don't watch the news anymore for information. Now I watch it for entertainment, and I laugh at the reporters, panelists, an opinion journalists. They are the clowns and buffoons. I guess that is why they keep doing it, because they still have an audience no matter what and I'm contributing to their success. But I have to say I tune in much much less than I used to. It gets tiresome and there are other things to do for fun.

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Offline waiukuweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #116 on: September 09, 2019, 12:38:50 AM »
Trump was using outdated information .
Why does he not just admit that was the problem?

Offline alanb

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #117 on: September 09, 2019, 12:48:17 AM »
I guess what bothers me is NOAA instructing their experts to allow misinformation to go uncorrected (if that is what actually happened). As destructive as Dorian was and is, the public deserves to have the best and latest consistent information available from the national weather service.
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Online galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #118 on: September 09, 2019, 01:19:32 AM »
I guess what bothers me is NOAA instructing their experts to allow misinformation to go uncorrected (if that is what actually happened). As destructive as Dorian was and is, the public deserves to have the best and latest consistent information available from the national weather service.

This did not happen. What NOAA said is being misreported and has been churned and words have been twisted. NOAA just said that NWS (Birmingham location) broke protocol by speaking in absolutes when clearly some Alabama probability existed of tropical storm impact to Alabama even still on September 1st.

But everyone with an opinion is picking and choosing words. POTUS said hurricane impact to Alabama when in reality it was just tropical storm impact to Alabama (by Sept 1st latest data models). But it was a storm that was a hurricane and was known that it was going to strengthen to at least a CAT 3 at the time.

NOAA statement. Read it yourself and not as interpreted by the media:
https://www.noaa.gov/news/statement-from-noaa

Quoted here in case link above is taken down:
Quote
Statement from NOAA
September 6, 2019

From Wednesday, August 28, through Monday, September 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama. This is clearly demonstrated in Hurricane Advisories #15 through #41, which can be viewed at the following link.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_34_F120

The Birmingham National Weather Service’s Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.

Want to step through every combined model in every report? Here you go. Just click stop and then use the left right arrow buttons. See Sept 1st still has a bit of Alabama in the probability for tropical storm impact.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_34_F120

« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 01:33:38 AM by galfert »
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Offline waiukuweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #119 on: September 09, 2019, 01:49:53 AM »
but it would have weakened crossing the land mass of Florida if it did head towards Alabama
Alabama was the least of the worries and should not have even been mentioned that far out
Why does he just admit that was a mistake to mention it?

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #120 on: September 09, 2019, 04:06:24 AM »
talking politics is against the forum guidelines.

.........
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Offline SoMDWx

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #121 on: September 09, 2019, 06:35:50 AM »
Please let this die and move on to real weather stuff...  :roll:
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #122 on: September 09, 2019, 07:05:51 AM »
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


64 advisories is getting up there, but I don't think it's anywhere near any kind of record.

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Offline Notsorusty

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #123 on: September 09, 2019, 04:05:49 PM »
Now that things have calmed down for most of us, would anyone with a PWS affected by Dorian want to share the experience? Interesting readings recorded, total destruction of the machine, photos etc. I realize that power outages usually kills data logging but I am interested in what machines are robust enough for that type of weather. Us Midwesteners don't get these long lasting intense storms. Just an occasional tornado that blasts everything to pieces in minutes.
Weather Station ID: KILFRANK39
Station Name: Silver Creek
Latitude / Longitude: 41.925° N, -87.872° W
Elevation: 633
City: Franklin Park
State: IL
Hardware: Ambient Weather WS-2902
Software: AMBWeatherV4.0.0

Offline waiukuweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #124 on: September 09, 2019, 04:10:55 PM »
I had someone contact me in Nova Scotia, their weather station got washed away by the ocean! (sea wall where it was mounted collapsed and got washed away)

 

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