Author Topic: Dorian  (Read 5193 times)

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2019, 05:38:09 PM »
5PM track, further east, now running up the coast instead of coming inland.
That could even be worse....now, the eye wall has the potential to stay over the reaaaaaly warm water and lose little if any intensity as it rakes it's way up the coast. Fl topography will do nothing to help shear it either. Wow, this could be all around super bad.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #26 on: August 30, 2019, 05:53:59 PM »
Other thing I noticed is a drop further south which will hit the Bahamas harder.

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Offline capeweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #27 on: August 30, 2019, 06:07:38 PM »
Impressive

Chris
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #28 on: August 30, 2019, 06:11:43 PM »
The local news in Chattanooga just ran a story about the local Red Cross preparing to deploy if needed.  I'm sure the power companies will have a fleet of trucks and personnel ready to go, as well.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #29 on: August 30, 2019, 07:10:34 PM »
TWC just reported that 60% of metro Miami gas stations are dry. At least people are listening.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #30 on: August 30, 2019, 07:37:35 PM »
Really getting a nice CDO and the visible showed the "stadium effect" starting to occur just before sunset. I think little doubt it'll be an easy 4 on the next advisory.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-14-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Offline DrBwell

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #31 on: August 30, 2019, 10:50:27 PM »
Iím in St. Augustine, about 20 miles inland. Based on the wunderground model it says 81 mph winds by me on Wednesday. Got the generator running , 3 cans of propane and a 5 gal jug of gasoline. I hope thatíll be enough if we lose power. Gas stations by the coast are dry, but not a problem so far at the inland stations. I must admit, Iím excited about how my WS2000 will perform on Wednesday.


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Offline Vette-kid

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #32 on: August 30, 2019, 11:29:26 PM »
My parents are in Titusville.  Trying to convince them to leave in the morning.  My 94yo grandfather lives with them and it's tough to move him, but I don't think he would survive a week without power.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2019, 12:04:42 AM »
Looking at the latest loop, the CDO is becoming perfectly symmetrical and the eye wall is shrinking, a Cat 5 is certainly knocking on the door.
This is gonna be a long few days for alotta folks. 8-[

Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2019, 04:59:47 AM »
Yes! It's turning away. This is why I say to remain calm until at least 3 to 4 days. Who needs more time than that to prepare and/or evacuate?  I'm doing the happy dance. Unbelievable that yesterday local schools already canceled school for Tuesday (Monday is a holiday).

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« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 05:04:32 AM by galfert »
Ecowitt GW1000 | Meteobridge (WeatherBridge)
WU: KFLWINTE111  |  PWSweather: KFLWINTE111
CWOP: FW3708  |  AWEKAS: 14814
Windy: pws-f075acbe
Weather Underground Issue Tracking
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Offline Vette-kid

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2019, 05:47:34 AM »
I don't find it unbelievable or inappropriate.  There is still significant risk and chance of land fall.  The smart thing to do is cancel school and other activities to allow people the ability to do what they need to.  Happy dance of you wish, but your still at risk.

Offline waiukuweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2019, 05:51:20 AM »
yes, there is weak steering flows, and that forecast track is just the average of lots of ensemble runs

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2019, 06:34:30 AM »
From the real source (No WuWu nonsense), track centerline is now completely off shore until SC:

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Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2019, 08:14:47 AM »
I don't like how "the real source" does not show projected hurricane wind speed category. It only has 2 levels (H, M).
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 08:19:27 AM by galfert »
Ecowitt GW1000 | Meteobridge (WeatherBridge)
WU: KFLWINTE111  |  PWSweather: KFLWINTE111
CWOP: FW3708  |  AWEKAS: 14814
Windy: pws-f075acbe
Weather Underground Issue Tracking
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2019, 08:18:55 AM »
Right now, I would be very concerned from the Low country of SC, all the way to Hatteras. Start to get your plans in motion. Once the storm begins to turn over the Bahama's, it should sit still for a day or so, and then the models will be able to read it's future path with a lot more certainty I believe. Right now, it's way to speculative to give a hint of an all clear all the way up and down the SE coast of the US.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2019, 08:32:54 AM »
Right now, it's way to speculative to give a hint of an all clear all the way up and down the SE coast of the US.

The coast is not clear.

There will be effects from W. Palm northward until wherever it turns back out to sea or dissipates.  How substantial those effects will be is very much in question, but likely to be less wind damage than a direct landfall.

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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2019, 09:19:45 AM »
The models are now indicating that once it turns, it will move very rapidly to the north and northeast possibly...

Offline Jasiu

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2019, 11:31:17 AM »
If the stall over/near the Bahamas happens, I wouldn't take any forecast into next week to the bank.

Offline DrBwell

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2019, 11:44:12 AM »
I was told that a similar think happened with hurricane Matthew. It turned into Florida and caused a lot of damage. I guess weíre not in the clear until it passes by.


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Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #44 on: August 31, 2019, 12:03:44 PM »
3 days out the NHC is pretty good with track guidance.
I would say at this point it's a non event for inland Florida.
Every model  I looked at has it offshore heading north. I guess things could change but
not expecting them to.
This is part of the 11AM discussion.
Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days.  This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

Offline Papa

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #45 on: August 31, 2019, 01:33:44 PM »
Hope it keeps moving east, right now it is dead on my beach house. Sister is full time across street on ICW.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2019, 02:00:23 PM »
2PM takes it further offshore, now more skimming NC than direct into SC.

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #47 on: August 31, 2019, 05:20:57 PM »
5PM, Advisory 30, now even further off shore, may even miss NC at this rate.

TS Watch posted for part of FL though.  There will be winds, rain and rough surf.  Unlikely to completely miss all of that at this point.

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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #48 on: August 31, 2019, 06:48:37 PM »
spaghettimodels (Mikes Wx Page) is an excellent source for all graphics.

Offline nincehelser

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #49 on: August 31, 2019, 08:28:48 PM »
spaghettimodels (Mikes Wx Page) is an excellent source for all graphics.

https://www.facebook.com/ChefRichardWilson/videos/2537079256354637/

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