Author Topic: Dorian  (Read 5215 times)

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Offline ocala

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Dorian
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:20:20 PM »
Way early I know but several models have it coming into Cape Canaveral on Sunday as a TS.
It would be awesome. A tropical storm on a 3 day weekend. Couldn't ask for a better weekend.

Offline SoMDWx

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2019, 07:40:49 AM »
Now forecasted to be a hurricane by landfall.....
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Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2019, 10:59:29 AM »
I'm not worried yet even though its headed right for me. Give it a few days. It will probably change yet again.

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Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2019, 02:01:12 PM »
Oh schnikes! Now its a CAT 1 and predicted CAT 3 at landfall still headed straight for me.

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Offline capeweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2019, 06:58:53 PM »
A lot of the models have shifted further south.

Chris
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Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2019, 07:37:20 PM »
Euro is well south.
I'm ready. Got all the gas for the genny tonight.

Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2019, 07:38:20 PM »
A lot of the models have shifted further south.
What's up Chris. Long time no hear

Offline capeweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2019, 07:50:04 PM »
 Hey Ocala! Yeah, I stop in from time to time. Been super busy raising a family. You got a room ready for us up your way if we have to evac?  :lol:

A lot of the models have shifted further south.
What's up Chris. Long time no hear

Chris
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2019, 01:19:26 AM »
I saw the cone and thought of you Florida folks.   8-[  I hope it fizzles out before it gets there.  I know you know how to prepare.  So I'll just keep you in my thoughts and monitor things from up here.  Be safe!
Greg Whitehead
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2019, 06:14:51 PM »
   8-[  I hope it fizzles out before it gets there. 
Now progged to make landfall as a Cat 4....

Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2019, 09:14:33 PM »
Yep now I'm beginning to worry, I'm still in the cross hairs. Gas stations ran out of gas today all around. Grocery stores decimated of water, bread and canned food.
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2019, 10:07:03 PM »
Yep now I'm beginning to worry, I'm still in the cross hairs. Gas stations ran out of gas today all around. Grocery stores decimated of water, bread and canned food.
Since you're far enough inland, storm surge won't be your problem, however power and drinking water very well may be as well as passable roads from torrential rain. If you're riding it out, I suggest a bleached cleaned bath tub full of water, at the very least.

Offline chief-david

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2019, 10:14:46 PM »
It is safe here.

All are welcome. But my generator is at the inlaws cabin after a storm.
And it may snow soon...... :grin:

Hope it all goes well down there.
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Offline capeweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2019, 10:21:00 PM »
Pressure down to 980mb. Almost Cat 2.

Chris
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Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2019, 07:15:43 AM »
Yep now I'm beginning to worry, I'm still in the cross hairs. Gas stations ran out of gas today all around. Grocery stores decimated of water, bread and canned food.
Since you're far enough inland, storm surge won't be your problem, however power and drinking water very well may be as well as passable roads from torrential rain. If you're riding it out, I suggest a bleached cleaned bath tub full of water, at the very least.

Yes being inland definitely means I'm usually not worried about the storm itself.  It's the aftermath of days without power and drinking water supply contamination that is bad. We always fill a tub and have plenty of bottled water along with all the other preparatives.

This storm has shifted landfall to hit further South but it is still dog legging for me as a CAT 1. That is enough to not do serious damage but enough to potentially make it a miserable week without power and water.

Being inland the worst I've seen is a CAT 3. I'll take a hurricane any day with days to prepare for, than an unexpected EF 3 or 4 or 5 tornado.
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2019, 07:46:52 AM »
Looks like some folks are going to be in for a wild ride.   8-[
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2019, 08:36:37 AM »
The anticipation is killing people around here as every updated forecast shows the storm slowing down and getting stronger. First it was Sunday as a CAT 1 and then it was Monday as CAT 3 and now its Tuesday as a CAT 4. 

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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2019, 09:10:30 AM »
Brings back the horrible feelings I had when Florence was coming for us... If you think you should go, don't wait too long, just do it. I left, but then the storm dropped to cat 2. I still think I did the right thing.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2019, 12:47:58 PM »
This is the first update where I've seen a track change to the north.  They now have it running up the peninsula.  Could it possibly turn north further east and skim or miss land?

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Offline racer3

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2019, 03:30:43 PM »
Euro model now tracking it offshore.  I can only hope it follows that.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2019, 03:58:02 PM »
The anticipation is killing people around here as every updated forecast shows the storm slowing down
Yep, the last thing you wanna hear. From the NHC:

By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula.  This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2019, 04:35:06 PM »
I've had a strong feeling that the high would weaken and allow the Hurricane to turn north, and the latest model runs are indicating this just as it begins to interact with land. I'm thinking it could turn even sooner and head north towards the coastal Carolina's.

Offline chief-david

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2019, 05:06:45 PM »
Brings back the horrible feelings I had when Florence was coming for us... If you think you should go, don't wait too long, just do it. I left, but then the storm dropped to cat 2. I still think I did the right thing.

I would leave for every storm....Maybe that is why I live here.
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2019, 05:09:16 PM »
5PM track, further east, now running up the coast instead of coming inland.

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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2019, 05:36:07 PM »
Let's hope it will keep going and miss everyone.

 

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