Author Topic: The Elephant in the Room  (Read 3071 times)

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Offline marshad

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The Elephant in the Room
« on: August 01, 2019, 07:18:06 PM »
I am a relatively new member to this forum, so first of all, please forgive my ignorance and presumption.

BUT, having read a lot of what's on here, there seems to me to be a very large elephant in the room - CLIMATE CHANGE.

This is probably the most important issue facing the world today, and yet in this forum of 15000+ weather enthusiasts worldwide, I can't find any serious discussion.

I know that there are those that think climate change is 'false news' and some sort of conspiracy - and so it is important that we have facts and data.

We have the data.

What can we, as watchers of the weather, contribute to the debate?

marshad

Offline galfert

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2019, 07:35:25 PM »
Politics not allowed in this forum. Besides this forum is about weather and climate to some degree....but climate change is totally different.

If you want to talk about climate or climate change then I'm sure you'll find company here. Just be sure it doesn't swing into politics....which might be a difficult thing to keep in check.

Yeah I know you said facts and data...not politics. But climate or climate change is not facts and data but the interpretation and analysis of the facts and data....and then it probably turns political.

See it is already getting hairy.

There is nothing in forum posting guidelines and registration agreement that says that discussing politics is or isn't allowed:
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=3991.0

But there is this as evidence that the administrators will not allow politics:
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=30711.msg304520#msg304520

But I'm nobody. Have at it and see what happens.
(Edit: I was nobody back when I posted this. Now I'm a Global Moderator.)
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 04:00:34 PM by galfert »
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Offline marshad

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2019, 07:55:05 PM »
Thanks for the advice galfert, and good thing you edited your post. We could have had some fun with "this forum is about weather and not about climate".

But believe me, I don't want this to be a political debate - it is not about politics.

If the administrator considers climate to be an inappropriate subject for a weather forum, then please feel free to delete the thread.

Online AWL

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2019, 08:00:16 PM »

If the administrator considers climate to be an inappropriate subject for a weather forum, then please feel free to delete the thread.

Don't really think it is the topic rather the tempers that begin to flare.....everyone has an opinion and they stick to it!

Offline CW2274

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2019, 08:30:00 PM »
But believe me, I don't want this to be a political debate - it is not about politics.
That's exactly what it has been, now becoming more so than ever. True science has taken a back seat for every person who has a bully pulpit, be it a politician or our all knowing, moronically self righteous jokes we watch on our TV screens that have absolutely NO business opening their pie-holes, except that they can and do because they can preach to the masses. Unfortunately, many listen.
See what I mean?

Offline galfert

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2019, 10:20:28 PM »
I said nothing of collecting and analyzing and won't argue that part is science. I said "interpreting" the analysis was political because then that interpreting goes into cause and effect. Oh I fear I have already said too much. Slippery slope.
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Offline Jstx

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2019, 11:54:10 PM »
Ruh-oh... BTDT.
I'm out of popcorn too, dang it. 


This sorry thread barely got a bite [I'm working up a factual rebuttal since it appeared, but time is/has been short]:
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=37557.msg386443;topicseen#msg386443

Offline badhairday

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2019, 06:11:32 PM »
@marshad, For what it is worth, I agree with what you are saying and have wondered the same thing.  Obviously, some folks really have and issue with the subject! 

Offline marshad

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2019, 07:43:13 PM »
Thanks badhairday and to all who have responded. The reaction was interesting.

If you don't think this is a topical subject, here is a sample from today's news:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49205072
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/02/europe/europe-heat-wave-3-degrees-hotter-scli-gbr-intl/index.html

Basically Europe has just had its hottest July on record and it's probably down to climate change.

But hey that's just news, and we know that cannot be relied upon. We also have opinions, hearsay, rumours and lies on which to base our decisions.

If people perhaps have gotten over the shock of my original post - can we revisit it:



We have the data.

What can we, as watchers of the weather, contribute to the debate?



I have three years of data for my location, probably not statistically significant, but yes it shows it's getting hotter.

I know that there are members out there who have 10, 20, perhaps 30 years of data - what does it show?

There is perhaps a more fundamental question here - why do we amateur weather enthusiasts do what we do? Is it just to have the most accurate sensor or to have the prettiest charts on our webpage? Or do we actually care about the meaning of the data we are collecting?



Offline WeatherHost

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2019, 08:12:06 PM »
Basically Europe has just had its hottest July on record

'On record' is at best a couple of hundred years.  Get back to us when you have 20,000 years of data.

You DO know how the Great Lakes were formed, right?  How many cars were running around then to cause that warming?

Your elephant is pink and has wings.

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Offline galfert

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2019, 10:46:34 PM »
Wow!

Anyone seen rormeister and his popcorn?
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Offline rormeister

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2019, 12:52:53 AM »
Wow!

Anyone seen rormeister and his popcorn?
Looks like it's time to re-order. I offered a peace offering to the WUFixers, but they declined. They said they had a better source.  As for the topic at hand, the jury and I are still out. After a record 36" snowfall in the east side of Seattle last February, I will reserve my humble opinion. (oh...for anyone who isn't familiar with Seattle, it rains here...beneath our umbrellas even)
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« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 12:54:58 AM by rormeister »

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2019, 04:50:08 AM »
One of the coldest February's on record for us also. The thing about cold unlike heat it can't be misinterpreted because of urban sprawl, heat islands etc.
If I remember correctly Chicago experienced the coldest temperature (ever) recorded for any month last winter. This is hard to do because the cold had to overcome the massive expansion of concrete and steel in Chicago to do this.
 
For this location, our trend is cooling. Here are the accurate untampered with temperatures for this location over the last 2 years and monthly departure from normals.
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2019, 05:59:59 AM »
We all talk about our own backyard, but remember that 'global' is a bit bigger.  Note the blue areas mixed into the red:




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Offline marshad

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2019, 10:47:34 AM »
Basically Europe has just had its hottest July on record

'On record' is at best a couple of hundred years.  Get back to us when you have 20,000 years of data.

You DO know how the Great Lakes were formed, right?  How many cars were running around then to cause that warming?

Your elephant is pink and has wings.



Hi WeatherHost, Dumbo here  :grin:

Seriously, thanks for posting the surface air temperature anomaly chart. The source seems respectable.

Not sure I understand the point you are making about the blue bits, but the vast majority of the planet seems to me to be pinker than my elephant.

Ps I’ll try and get back to you on the 20,000 years of data. There was a guy in Bedrock called Rubble uploading to WU, but they have lost his data. You are right about the cars, but they did seem to have a serious problem with dinosaur emission levels.

Offline marshad

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2019, 06:54:54 PM »

The weather warriors return to their rain buckets, and all is well with the world.

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2019, 10:30:53 AM »
Perhaps this is a more balanced view?

My apologies in advance if this article offends you...
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
gwwilk@gmail.com

Offline chescopawxman

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2019, 09:20:22 AM »
Just to add some factual real world data of a non-heat island impacted area - my data is from 35 miles west of the PHL Airport heat island that is the "official" recording. Out here in the rural hills of SE PA below are some detailed data over the last 13 decades going all the way back to 1894. This is NWS COOP and FAA data for the time period. I have included both temperature trends and snowfall trends. Of course this will not solve the climate debate. However, in it's own small but valid NWS data does not for this location support a warming climate....changing.... absolutely as climate always will. But are we just in a warming cycle with a cooling cycle coming?? While all scientist can agree that climate is always changing...where there is certainly not consensus or fact (such as the world is flat) is that man is causing climate change. What does amaze me as an earlier poster mentioned is how angry folks on the man made climate change get when you say you are not sure as there is not universal 100% scientific alignment on the topic. They call you a climate denier (whatever that means) Anyway I hope some of you find the data below of interest and or value when compared to the urban heat island of the PHL Airport. Thanks!!


Offline galfert

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2019, 10:54:33 AM »
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” - Mark Twain.
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Offline chescopawxman

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2019, 11:55:22 AM »
" If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine.” – Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO

"The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight.” – Carly Fiorina, former executive, president, and chair of Hewlett-Packard Co.

Offline galfert

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2019, 02:07:50 PM »
Good ones! Emphasis on former.
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Offline Weatheroger

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2019, 03:00:46 PM »
Climate has always changed on this wonderful planet. I believe there can be a consensus on this. The big issue is what is driving this change and what are the largest factors of influence. For some, there is politics in the interpretation of the data and the gleaned statistics of that data. Both can both be massaged to support a theory and guide popular opinion one direction or the other for one's own purpose. I read both sides. For me, the truth lies near the middle.

Offline Greg_M

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2019, 07:37:56 AM »
The climate has been changing for approximately 4-1/2 billion years on this planet.
Live with it.

The rest is BS.
The other Greg....
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #23 on: September 06, 2019, 04:35:49 AM »
We have politicians openly stating they want to throw 70% of the GDP at it now. If this isn't a wakeup call what it's really about, What is?  Creating a global system of taxation and control. Climate change is just the vehicle being used to reach the end goal. 
Randy

Offline Intheswamp

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Re: The Elephant in the Room
« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2019, 07:54:10 AM »
Collecting and analyzing weather data is SCIENCE, denying said science is POLY-TICKS.

DISCLAIMER: Neither Pachyderms nor Donkeys were harmed in the stating of the above obviousity.
Now you're talking about harming dumb animals!!!  Where's the data that they weren't harmed?  Where's the data that they were actually Pachyderms or Donkeys???  This is all stressing me out!!!!  I've got to...got to...got to go to my safe space!!!! 

HEY!!!! WHO USED ALL THE TOILET PAPER!!!!!!????????????  #-o

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