Author Topic: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!  (Read 1022 times)

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Offline WeatherHost

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Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« on: July 01, 2019, 03:19:32 PM »
Seems to be a campaign on to that effect.  Always thought it was silly.  But they said NO rain until Thursday, maybe late Wednesday.  It's mid-day Monday and it's pouring.  How many millions of dollars do they spend/waste every year not being able to figure out simple things like when it will rain?

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Offline waiukuweather

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2019, 03:37:17 PM »
got to be the dumbest thing I have read on this forum
hopefully u are joking  ;)

Offline CW2274

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Offline chief-david

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2019, 04:00:31 PM »
darn. Only missing a few credits.
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It's not you-It's WU.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2019, 04:26:42 PM »
They totally blew this one.  They weren't even close.  Then they make some wisecrack about 'so much for our dry spell'.

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2019, 05:25:31 PM »
https://www.usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDetails/537411000

Wages aren't that bad, when I was looking at it a long time ago salaries weren't that competitive. Things have sure changed but should have figured government spending is out of control.   
Randy

Offline ocala

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2019, 05:35:06 PM »
It's an impossible job.
They get no credit when they get it right and all the blame when they get it wrong.
That's why it's called a forecast weatherhost. Just an educated guess of what might happen.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2019, 05:54:09 PM »
https://www.usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDetails/537411000

Wages aren't that bad, when I was looking at it a long time ago salaries weren't that competitive. Things have sure changed but should have figured government spending is out of control.   
Perhaps, but if you want the best and brightest, you're gonna hafta pay up. Exactly why I had every intention of leaving the Navy (and did) for the FAA, no contest.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2019, 06:05:19 PM »
Just an educated guess of what might happen.

They don't even do that any more.  They look at models and do an eenie meenie  miney moe between them.  I've read almost exactly that in several AFDs recently.  'We looked at all these and we really don't agree with any of them, but we'll go with this one for now and maybe change later in the day.'

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2019, 06:16:24 PM »
Just an educated guess of what might happen.

They don't even do that any more.  They look at models and do an eenie meenie  miney moe between them.  I've read almost exactly that in several AFDs recently.  'We looked at all these and we really don't agree with any of them, but we'll go with this one for now and maybe change later in the day.'
I will have to agree with you here. The art of forecasting has taken a back seat to the um-teen million models they now use, not completely, but certainly as a crutch. Ahhhh, technology....

Offline ocala

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2019, 08:11:36 PM »
Have to disagree with you guys. There is a lot of local knowledge that goes into a forecast but you don't hear about it. Those mental notes about similar setups in the past are probably, guessing here, a third of a forecast along with model data and soundings.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2019, 09:09:31 PM »
Have to disagree with you guys. There is a lot of local knowledge that goes into a forecast but you don't hear about it.
Oh, no doubt. However, you gotta understand, these folks rarely hang around one spot, too many "horizons" elsewhere. I've lived here in Tucson over 30 years now and can all but guarantee that I know the nuances of the yearly weather here better than anyone from my WFO, they're simply too inexperienced. Example, I said a couple of months ago that the monsoon would probably be well delayed due to the winter-ish pattern that has constantly been in play, my WFO is now buying into that as it looks like it's coming to fruition. Models help fill that gap, but not like experience potentially can in the long haul.

Offline The Maine Naturalist

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2019, 09:20:16 PM »
Models help fill that gap, but not like experience potentially can in the long haul.
I couldn't agree more! I know for one that meteorologists with more local experience for a longer duration tend to begin to catch on to the typical patterns in a given area, whereas some of the newer ones tend to take the 'safe' route and make a forecast solely based off of what the models are telling them, and not what they know typically happens. More experience with a particular location also leads to lead to better forecasts in relation to micro-climactic patterns as well.
   - Matt

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2019, 04:48:55 PM »
From this afternoon's AFD:

"The convection may diminish slightly this evening or become more consolidated closer to the mid level support moving into and across the area,"



Ahhh, OK.  Good ta' know where all those tax dollars are going.

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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2019, 10:46:59 AM »
got to be the dumbest thing I have read on this forum
hopefully u are joking  ;)

Agree

Offline Rappsen

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2019, 08:06:03 AM »
Don't be too harsh on the OP. His plans probably fell through because of that and he was bummed out. Happens to all of us from time to time.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2019, 07:29:44 AM »
I love it when they openly admit that even with everything at their disposal, they have no idea what's happening or why:

"Early this morning, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
stubbornly persisted in a band from north of Perryville MO to the
Rend Lake area in southern Illinois, with a few cells observed in
southwest Indiana within the past couple hours as well. As best as
we can tell,
the activity was likely a result of a combination of
weak mid level energy approaching from the northwest and a remnant
outflow boundary that drifted northward from evening convection.
No model seems to have a good handle on the ongoing activity, so
any forecast is a wild guess. Thinking the current activity should
diminish through daybreak, but with the presence of the boundary
and weak energy, other isolated activity could fire to its south."
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Offline ocala

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Re: Maybe they SHOULD abolish the NWS!
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2019, 10:26:20 AM »
I love it when they openly admit that even with everything at their disposal, they have no idea what's happening or why:

"Early this morning, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
stubbornly persisted in a band from north of Perryville MO to the
Rend Lake area in southern Illinois, with a few cells observed in
southwest Indiana within the past couple hours as well. As best as
we can tell,
the activity was likely a result of a combination of
weak mid level energy approaching from the northwest and a remnant
outflow boundary that drifted northward from evening convection.
No model seems to have a good handle on the ongoing activity, so
any forecast is a wild guess. Thinking the current activity should
diminish through daybreak, but with the presence of the boundary
and weak energy, other isolated activity could fire to its south."

Again, I'm always going to defer to the mets. I love weather but I don't know the X's and O's of forecasting. It's not an exact science so how can the mets get it right.  Sometimes you gotta take a wild guess because you just don't know.
As an example just yesterday there was barley a cloud in the sky. Very strange for our rainy season. Saw a nice sunset with just a few clouds on the horizon. Around midnight I'm awaken to the sound of the thunder. This small complex of storms blew up  out of nowhere then immediately dissipated.  NWS Jacksonville issued a flood watch for the area. The 2:30AM AFD made no mention of the activity.  Generally in situations like this there is an old outflow boundry from the previous days storms that will be the focus for TS activity but as I said earlier it was blue sky's all day.