Author Topic: Spring/Summer '19  (Read 8714 times)

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #125 on: May 12, 2019, 05:37:30 PM »
Did I mention this is not May?

CPC 8-14 day says more cool and damp in store for much of the SW.

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #126 on: May 12, 2019, 05:58:22 PM »
Did I mention this is not May?

CPC 8-14 day says more cool and damp in store for much of the SW.
Yep, another trough coming. Been here thirty years, never seen anything like it. As I stated earlier, I'm really wondering if this will start effecting the setup for the monsoon. At this rate, won't need it... :!:

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #127 on: May 12, 2019, 08:06:34 PM »
Just noticed on the Valentine Police website.  Check out the wheels grass on one side snow on the other.
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I haven't lived up north in a while but I can't ever remember cutting the grass with snow on it.
Is this something new or is this guy just having some fun.

I don't know about that one. Seems a little strange unless the guy had a lawn service and scheduling problems.
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #128 on: May 13, 2019, 09:03:02 AM »
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From HSI on Saturday morning. Thought this was worth posting. Where will it set up?

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #129 on: May 13, 2019, 01:06:53 PM »
For NC Nebraska, last week of May and most of June is generally very wet period. 5-6" rainfall. Last June was exception very dry.
Randy

Offline Bunty

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #130 on: May 13, 2019, 09:10:10 PM »
Hail in Stillwater Tuesday evening from pea to marble size and a few a bit bigger.  Fortunately, the hail didn't get bigger.  The storm formed from overhead to the west side of the county and moved SE.

« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 09:31:35 PM by Bunty »

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #131 on: May 14, 2019, 06:19:27 AM »
41 this morning which looks like it should be a new record low.

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #132 on: May 14, 2019, 08:04:44 AM »
Dropped one more briefly:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 AM CST TUE MAY 14 2019

...RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH KY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY THIS
MORNING...MAY 14TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 43 SET IN 2016 AND
PREVIOUS YEARS.

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Offline Bunty

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #133 on: May 15, 2019, 02:13:50 PM »

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #134 on: May 16, 2019, 01:24:02 AM »
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #135 on: May 16, 2019, 03:50:42 AM »
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.

This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #136 on: May 16, 2019, 04:17:24 AM »
ENH already up for Friday (TX and NE) and Saturday (TX).

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #137 on: May 16, 2019, 04:23:59 AM »
This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.

Bound to be some confliction commotion in there somewhere:

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #138 on: May 16, 2019, 02:19:19 PM »
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.

This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.
In case you haven't read it, from SPC for tomorrow. The first sentence gets your attention.


   ...Central Plains region...

   Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of
   NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.
   However, primary uncertainty this forecast will be how far south the
   cold front advances and where it will be during peak heating, which
   will be critical in determining corridor of greatest severe threat.
   The front should stall somewhere across central or south central NE
   before possibly retreating slowly north as a warm front. Dewpoints
   generally in the low 60s F should reside in the warm sector beneath
   very steep (7.5-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates). This setup will
   favor strong instability with MLCAPE from 2500-3000 J/kg as the
   boundary layer warms. However, given warm air at the base of the
   elevated mixed layer, the warm sector will likely remained capped
   through at least the first half of the day. Elevated storms will
   probably be ongoing north of the front early with some threat for
   hail. Initial surface-based storm development may occur by mid-late
   afternoon near triple point from northeast CO into southwest NE at
   intersection of surface low/front and dryline where convergence and
   deep mixing, as well as arrival of deeper forcing for ascent within
   upper jet exit region should weaken the cap. These storms should
   intensify as they develop northeast through the very unstable warm
   sector along and just south of the front where 40-50 kt effective
   bulk shear will favor supercells with very large hail. Tornado
   threat should be maximized from late afternoon through early evening
   as the low-level jet strengthens, contributing to increasing
   hodographs size with 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. More
   isolated supercells may develop southward through western KS.

Eye to the sky, sir.

Offline Bunty

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #139 on: May 16, 2019, 02:21:30 PM »
Wow, 7.89" of rain projected for Stillwater between Friday and Tuesday.  I'll believe the hype when I see it measured in my rain gauge.  Later,  I'll compare it to the Oklahoma Mesonet map for actual amounts.  After a couple of dry days, the ground is kinda squishy from 4.69" for May, so far.  So hopefully, it won't mostly come by a heavy downpour or two.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2019, 02:39:03 PM by Bunty »

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #140 on: May 17, 2019, 06:30:10 PM »
Randy, hope you're watching the radar, that supercell SW of the main bang is crazy spinning like a top and making a bee-line for you. :!:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LNX-N0Q-1-24

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #141 on: May 17, 2019, 07:29:24 PM »
I see the atmosphere is exploding all around. Surface temps are low up here mid 50's vs 120 miles south near 70. Wondering if that doesn't limit the bigger storms? May not matter these aren't temperature enhanced like a summer type storm.  It's been cool all day with mist and fog.
Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #142 on: May 17, 2019, 07:36:37 PM »
Forget the temp. The rotating storm WSW of the radar has a hellofa hail core, and wouldn't surprise me one bit to become tornadic. Not trying to be over dramatic , but you may want to consider cover very shortly.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #143 on: May 17, 2019, 07:45:09 PM »
Forget the temp. The rotating storm WSW of the radar has a hellofa hail core, and wouldn't surprise me one bit to become tornadic. Not trying to be over dramatic , but you may want to consider cover very shortly.

Thanks for the warning those bad boys are still a ways off from me. 60 miles or so. To the SE Ainsworth had 1.75" hail in an earlier storm.
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Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #144 on: May 17, 2019, 07:50:26 PM »
That should put it on your doorstep in about 1 hour.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #145 on: May 17, 2019, 07:55:31 PM »
That should put it on your doorstep in about 1 hour.

Just went under a severe TS watch.
Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #146 on: May 17, 2019, 08:03:36 PM »
That should put it on your doorstep in about 1 hour.

Just went under a severe TS watch.
No sir, not watch, warning.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #147 on: May 17, 2019, 08:28:00 PM »
Maybe for the county, but not the city.   Yet.



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Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #148 on: May 17, 2019, 08:45:56 PM »
Maybe for the county, but not the city.   Yet.
Yes, I'm aware. He's been under a watch for hours.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #149 on: May 17, 2019, 09:46:59 PM »
Hook echo south of Broken Bow. I heard North Platte canceled all tv shows and is covering the storms live. We don't get NP channels up here.
Randy

 

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