Author Topic: Spring/Summer '19  (Read 16131 times)

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2019, 12:07:01 PM »
Not exactly perfect but above freezing is a great improvement. Still melting snow, creeks and rivers are really running and possibly flood increases this weekend again with rain in the forecast. Ground still froze at 4" this morning but should thaw before the weekend is the hope with 50's prior in the forecast.
Randy

Offline chief-david

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2019, 01:45:21 PM »
I can now post in the spring thread

Although I may still be a few hours earlier.

good day. 42 right now.  Warm with two light coats on.
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Offline JudinNorman

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #27 on: March 20, 2019, 04:10:51 PM »
I can now post in the spring thread

Although I may still be a few hours earlier.

good day. 42 right now.  Warm with two light coats on.

Chief,. Much of a flood threat in your area ?

Offline chief-david

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2019, 05:15:33 PM »
around the river areas.

St. Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, Buffalo. A lot of rural. It is going to get worse before better. Snow is melting fast. St. Paul ending parking restrictions tomorrow

I have always tried NOT to live close to a river. At the very least, live on a hill.
I am sure my daughter in Fargo/NDSU will volunteer to sandbag.



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Offline chief-david

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2019, 05:21:15 PM »
Iowa and Nebraska much worse off.
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Online Bunty

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #30 on: March 24, 2019, 04:25:59 AM »

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Offline Fredicere

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #31 on: March 29, 2019, 10:11:04 AM »
Washington State weather might be the best off right now, ironically enough after their snowstorm in the winter.

Offline ocala

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2019, 02:38:10 PM »
With no rain scheduled till Monday looks like this March will end on a very dry note.
.21 was all we could muster. :-(

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2019, 06:49:43 PM »
We may end up around 7", or about double normal.  Send me a few tanker trucks and I'll fill 'em up for ya'.

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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #34 on: March 31, 2019, 08:32:08 AM »
1.50" for March here. That is about .43 below normal. I hope this is not the beginning of the dry/draught cycle. Always waiting for that in Kansas.

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #35 on: April 01, 2019, 06:29:40 PM »
In Oklahoma City March was 5.1 degrees below normal and drier than average or .36 below normal.  No lows to freezing in the 10 day outlook, so probably no more freezes for the rest of April.

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #36 on: April 02, 2019, 02:04:26 PM »
3 Degrees below normal with nearly 3 extra inches of rain, which interestingly came almost all on one day:

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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #37 on: April 05, 2019, 08:24:31 AM »
Interesting FC discussion from HSI (Hastings, NE) weather office, for coming week:

Pattern begins to change on Tue as a trough deepens over the W
CONUS and a warm front develops over the C Plains. This trough
will deepen in response to amplifying ridging at higher
latitudes, namely from the Gulf of Alaska NE toward Greenland.
This will allow upper lows to amplify/strengthen "beneath" them
and potentially become cut-off. This scenario has support from
climatology as we are in peak "cut-off low season". This blocking
pattern looks to continue into the following weekend which may be
setting the stage for an even stronger/colder system compared to
the mid-week system. Plenty of time to fine tune details,
obviously, but pattern is almost certainly setting up to be a much
colder and more active one compared to the start of the week.

Considering the aforementioned pattern, tend to favor the
stronger/slower solution of the EC compared to weaker/faster GFS.
Would not at all be surprised if system slowed down even further,
maybe even by as much as 12-24hrs. However, as it stands now, a
strong storm system looks to emerge onto the Plains on Wed. Much
too early to discuss specifics, but depending on exact
timing/track, could be looking at a scenario with both
strong/severe tstms and snow impacting NE/KS (maybe even both in
our local area) Wed into Thu, esp. if stronger EC solution
verifies. Certainly a time period to watch.

Below normal (and maybe even well below normal) temperatures move
in behind the system for the end of the week, and suspect going
forecast will only trend lower. As previously mentioned, models
hint at yet another system to impact the area the following
weekend.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #38 on: April 05, 2019, 12:48:49 PM »
Snapshot of current EC. Looks like it's leaning on northern Ne. southern SD. region.
Still 5-6 days out so lots could change, EC is usually best model for location but often over estimates precip amounts. GFS current run trending toward EC now. Was much more south previous runs. 

Euro
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Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #39 on: April 06, 2019, 12:29:25 AM »
Kind of late for our location to receive significant snow, so not surprised to see the shift north.

I would be happy to see some liquid precip here. We haven't had the big amounts that NE has had. An inch would be nice.

Hope you don't get dumped though.

Offline ocala

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #40 on: April 06, 2019, 05:31:10 AM »
Man you guys are surely having  a wet one up there.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2019, 03:19:52 PM »
We're about double our normal so far in moisture. May be getting an inch of rain in front of 8-12" of snow. We had a spring storm similar last April with the bad blizzard.  First, 4 years very little snow past March, so things have changed and it's gotten colder this year with a majority of months below normal going back to August.  This is a low sunspot activity year....
Sure is nice today near 70F, almost hard to believe this will turn into another snowstorm soon. 
Good thing other than mud the snow won't stick around mid-April.

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Randy

Offline chief-david

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #42 on: April 07, 2019, 04:12:21 PM »
Next week is Twin Cities Region Severe Weather Awareness Week.
Thursday is the statewide Severe Weather Test.

We could have 6 or more inches of snow on the ground.

Welcome to Minnesota.
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #43 on: April 07, 2019, 09:02:45 PM »
Next week is Twin Cities Region Severe Weather Awareness Week.
Thursday is the statewide Severe Weather Test.

We could have 6 or more inches of snow on the ground.

Welcome to Minnesota.

With the moisture collision and cold air, this one could get nasty with severe weather.

This is out of North Platte discussion:
Rain chances Wednesday will increase to likely to categorical
into the afternoon. Colder air will quickly be drawn into the
system for a changeover to snow across the northwest Sandhills in
the afternoon. Elevated instability is shown in the afternoon,
with MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG across southern and eastern areas for
an additional threat for thunderstorms.
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #44 on: April 08, 2019, 08:13:12 AM »
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Looks to be east of me. Hope we get some rain.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #45 on: April 08, 2019, 11:46:15 AM »
It seems odd to see so many complain about lack of rain when so many others are complaining about far too much.

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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #46 on: April 08, 2019, 12:23:38 PM »
It seems odd to see so many complain about lack of rain when so many others are complaining about far too much.

Not complaining as much as worrying. I know what this place can be like when the precip shuts down and we go into drought cycle. We had decent precipitation, 4" above average, this past year, but I would like some more assurance that we aren't going into Gaza Strip mode.  :-)

On another note, my low here was 33 degrees at about 7:15 a.m. today. Four hours later, 11:21 a.m. and the temperature has risen 44 degrees to 77. Good old down slope winds.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #47 on: April 08, 2019, 01:29:52 PM »
12-18" snow with 55 mph winds now in the forecast.
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Randy


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '19
« Reply #49 on: April 08, 2019, 06:01:24 PM »
I'm actually hoping for a big forecast bust. Had enough winter fun this year.

Unfortunately, it gets worse with the afternoon update, now 18-24"  across the Valentine region.  I did notice today people stocking up and getting fresh gas for snowblowers and other snow removal equipment.

 
Randy

 

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