Author Topic: Hurricane Willa and TS Vicente  (Read 1386 times)

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Offline Jstx

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Hurricane Willa and TS Vicente
« on: October 22, 2018, 09:19:37 PM »
Little TS Vicente began to develop last Thursday, became Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E by 1500UTC on Friday, and a Tropical Storm by 2100UTC.
Vicente never reached hurricane status, probably due to proximity to his big sister Willa.
Both of which formed near an area south of Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec (that narrow part of Mexico where the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico is just a short distance north of the Pacific Ocean). This area is the spawning place for many East Pacific cyclones.
It has been very active this year.
Hurricane Willa began forming shortly after Vicente and became a tropical storm by 1500UTC on Saturday.
By 0900UTC on Sunday Willa was a Cat 1 hurricane and a Cat 2 by 1500UTC.
Willa continued a very rapid intensification and was a Cat 3 by 2100UTC, major hurricane status (Cat 1 at 0900, Cat 3 at 2100, just 12 hours).
By 2230UTC Willa was upgraded to extremely dangerous Cat 4 status (Cat 1-Cat4 in 13.5 hours).
Willa went to Cat 5 by 1500UTC on Monday. From Sunday, 0900UTC as a Cat 1, to 1500UTC Monday, a Cat 5. 30 hours to develop from a Cat 1 to strong Cat 5.
Just 30 hours duration as a hurricane to reach sustained winds of 160mph; and what many don't realize, much higher gusts which can buzzsaw the terrain and structures worse than a sustained wind can (as a sixty+ year long sailor/mariner, I can state that the gusts will get you).
As of 0000UTC Tuesday, Willa has slipped (due to an eyewall replacement cycle) to a very strong, still extremely dangerous Cat 4, with landfall expected near San Blas/Mazatlan on Tuesday afternoon.
Willa's remnants will then make a beeline across the Sierra Madres straight into South, Central and East Texas (probably even Houston, etc), see the NHC future track chart.

This extremely rapid intensification cycle has occurred with many hurricanes this year, recent devastating Atlantic Hurricane Michael for example (probably the most expensive US storm yet).
I'm anticipating some interesting scientific papers from the professional hurricane scientists about this phenomena later on.

Here in South and Central Texas, we haven't yet recovered from intense, expensive '500-year event' flooding events triggered in part by moisture plumes/WX systems from other recent Pacific hurricanes over the last month or so.
Now the future remnants of Willa (and Vicente) are expected to bring more major rainfall this week. Much more flooding is expected this week. The rivers are still high, and forget about soil moisture, it's basically boggy, even the caliche.

But let's not talk about that subject which shall not be mentioned around this noted WX website.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2018, 09:31:40 PM by Jstx »

Offline Old Tele man

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Re: Hurricane Willa and TS Vicente
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 09:31:54 PM »
It has been an El Niño year.
• SYS: Davis VP2 Vue/WL-IP & Envoy8X/WL-USB;
• DBX2 & DBX1 Precision Digital Barographs
• CWOP: DW6988 - 2 miles NNE of Cortaro, AZ
• WU - KAZTUCSO202, Countryside

Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane Willa and TS Vicente
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 09:55:54 PM »
It has been an El Niño year.

No, the 2018 El Nino is just beginning, and is expected to be a weak one. See the bulk of the CPC advisory below (w/ links).

Of course the ENSO/El Nino/La Nina have a large influence on both the Pacific and Atlantic WX and storm systems, plus the continental landmasses.
But anomalous very warm SST's have been driving this hurricane season.

(my bolding for emphasis):
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 October 2018
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during September, but with increasingly more widespread regions of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Over the last month, all four Niño index values increased, with the latest weekly values in each region near +0.7C (Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also increased during the last month (Fig. 3), due to the expansion and strengthening of above-average temperatures at depth
across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Convection was increasingly suppressed over Indonesia and around the Date Line (Fig. 5). Low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the western and east-central Pacific, with some of the strongest anomalies occurring over the eastern Pacific during the past week.
Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to form during the fall and continue through the winter (Fig. 6). The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño,
consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean.
In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance
; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

[Arrrg, NOAA's CR/LF's play havoc with a simple C&P job]
« Last Edit: October 22, 2018, 10:01:36 PM by Jstx »

Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane Willa and TS Vicente
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2018, 03:14:33 PM »
Not looking like any record rainfall, but dang, it's just nonstop precip since yesterday and through tomorrow morning (my rain gauge is glitching too). Baro falling as remnant Willa's core approaches, it's about 225 miles SW and closing at 28mph.

Hurricane Willa has officially dissipated, but billions of tons of its' moisture are precipitating out over NE Mexico and South and Central Texas today.

WTPZ34 KNHC 241431
Remnants Of Willa Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018
LOCATION...25.5N 101.5W

Moderate to Heavy Rain Across Texas; Will Spread Into the South and Central Gulf Coast on Thursday
Moisture from the remnants of Willa and the Gulf of Mexico is producing moderate to heavy rainfall across Texas. This overrunning rain, along with an area of organizing low pressure, will shift into the South tomorrow with possible thunderstorm activity down near the immediate central Gulf Coast. Flood concerns should be marginal at best.
Numerous to widespread showers are expected today as a shortwave trough moves east across the area. Moderate rainfall is expected, although isolated heavy rainfall will be possible at times. Also, cannot rule out an embedded thunderstorm or two. Greatest coverage is expected across the Brush Country in the morning, then shifting to the Coastal Plains and Gulf waters during the afternoon and evening. Light rain will continue today across South Texas. Another cloudy and cool day can be expected with highs near 60 along the Rio Grande and low to middle 60s along the Coastal Bend.

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« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 03:26:53 PM by Jstx »