Author Topic: Michael  (Read 2213 times)

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2018, 02:49:41 PM »
Wow, this is gonna majorly hit Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, Port St Joe, Apalachicola...that entire area is getting ripped...

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Michael
« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2018, 02:51:18 PM »
It looks like landfall was on the south end of Tyndall AFB where there are some smaller airstrips/stations.  More precisely, at the south end of Saint Andrews Sound.  130mph winds recorded before Tyndall's before their equipment failed.  Some are saying Cat2 while traveling into southern Georgia.  13' storm surge anticipated in Apalachicola...many did not evacuate. 

A 90 mile swatch of hurricane force winds of this strength....bad.  ...and then, the rain. :-(

The Davis station link above made 100 mph. Been in a brief 80 mph wind can't image the damage with sustained winds that high.
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2018, 06:15:33 PM »
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

 :shock:
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Offline ocala

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Re: Michael
« Reply #28 on: October 10, 2018, 08:05:38 PM »
Was  watching the evening news tonight and the footage they showed was incredible.
A whole lot of people just had their life turned upside down.
Going to be a long recovery.

Offline Jstx

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Re: Michael
« Reply #29 on: October 10, 2018, 08:25:50 PM »
After Michael rips the SE, get ready for a possible Hurricane Leslie, which has been on/off since 23 September.
Leslie has done a couple of loops in the mid-Atlantic. Leslie is a Cat 1 now, heading E, SE of the Azores.
By Saturday night Leslie is expected to do almost a 180 and start heading to the SW, towards warmer water and lower latitudes (Leslie's at 27.8°N 41.9°W, now, lower than Michael).
It is expected to then weaken some, but as it tracks SW to W it could very well restrengthen for the x'th time in its' very long history.
Leslie could then threaten anywhere from the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, to Florida or the SE coast.
TS Nadine doesn't look like it will do much, but who knows.
Interesting climate, eh?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 08:29:20 PM by Jstx »

Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #30 on: October 10, 2018, 10:14:37 PM »
Was  watching the evening news tonight and the footage they showed was incredible.
A whole lot of people just had their life turned upside down.
Going to be a long recovery.

Some of the video coming out from down there is really heartbreaking...down toward Apalachicola is what I refer to as "old Florida"...it wouldn't surprise me if the fishing village and cafes/restaurants are gone.  Lots of folks didn't leave, too.  It makes me wonder whether the media playing up the smaller storms in the past and people heeding the "warnings" to evacuate caused some people to fall victim to kind of a reverse "boy that cried wolf" situation.  Whatever...there's gonna be lots of heartbreak.
 
It was mostly a non-event 50 miles south of Montgomery, Alabama.  I just got back from leading my daughter back to her house...about 30 miles further south on the west side of Covington County (town of Opp being the closest population center).  Seemed much more gusty down there just those few miles further south.  Still gusty up here but the rain is basically gone.

Just received a text from my sister in Columbus, Georgia...10,000 reported out of power there...she still has power.


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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2018, 10:25:52 PM »
From Facebook... Mexico Beach

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #32 on: October 10, 2018, 10:32:32 PM »
If you're on Facebook, here's a video of Mexico Beach...
https://www.facebook.com/ryan.graney/videos/10217383795615046/

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #33 on: October 11, 2018, 12:37:04 AM »
Lots of folks didn't leave, too.  It makes me wonder whether the media playing up the smaller storms in the past and people heeding the "warnings" to evacuate caused some people to fall victim to kind of a reverse "boy that cried wolf" situation.

This was only forecast to be a Cat 1, maybe low Cat 2 which is pretty much old hat for many along that coast.  It came in as a Cat4/5 which probably caught a lot of them by surprise.

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Offline ocala

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Re: Michael
« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2018, 05:57:28 AM »
If you live along the gulf or atlantic coast during hurricane season you have to be vigilant.
Have to have the one foot out the door mentality with these storms. I realize everyone isn't as weather aware as we are on this board but as soon as you hear about a possible event you have to start planning ahead.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Michael
« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2018, 11:09:21 AM »
I'm not going to compare this to other storms.  But there's going to be a wide swath from landfall to Virginia/North Carolina.  I think they were getting near-hurricane-force winds in Macon, GA, and I'm sure those people didn't evacuate.  It's hard for me to get my head around the enormity of this storm.  Wow.  :o

I noticed that rdsman said he was 175 mi NNE of landfall.  Has he reported in?
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 11:12:25 AM by SlowModem »
Greg Whitehead
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Michael
« Reply #36 on: October 11, 2018, 11:49:41 AM »
I think it caught many by surprise how fast it strengthened. Good thing it was moving and didn't stall, damage and life loss could of been even worse.
Randy

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Re: Michael
« Reply #37 on: October 11, 2018, 01:55:58 PM »
Quote
I noticed that rdsman said he was 175 mi NNE of landfall.  Has he reported in?
We survived with no damage.  The closest that Michael came to us as a Cat 3 was roughly 110 miles due south.  By the time it was 80 miles southeast of us it was a Cat 1.  We had steady rain for 17 hours.  I measured a total of 3.28 inches during this time.  It seems low, but its inline with the stations around me.  My maximum wind gust was 32 mph, again similar to stations close to me.

I wonder if the El Governor Motel in Mexico Beach survived.  A massive amount of destruction...


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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Michael
« Reply #38 on: October 11, 2018, 05:19:38 PM »
Only 32 MPH? Wow. I just had 47 MPH and I am well over 100 miles from the center. One of my guy wires snapped also for my anemometer.


Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #39 on: October 11, 2018, 10:38:20 PM »
Only 32 MPH? Wow. I just had 47 MPH and I am well over 100 miles from the center. One of my guy wires snapped also for my anemometer.
I'm wondering about my anemometer...we recorded a high of 33mph and the trees were *really* whipping.  Definitely not hurricane winds, but seems they would've been higher than 33mph.  How would one test an anemometer???....Davis VP2?

The drone footage on Fox is incredible...Mexico Beach, wow!!!!!!!!!!! :(

Lots of folks out of power in Georgia:  http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/m.html

My wife and I were up in Montgomery today and we saw several Florida tags.  I overheard one person in a store talking on a cellphone saying something about "just looking for something to keep us occupied"...I figured he was an evacuee.   

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Offline reddclay

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Re: Michael
« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2018, 01:08:53 AM »
Hello, 
I was hoping somebody could help me out.  I apologize in advance if my query is off base or ridiculous but I am sharing with you the commentary that somebody sent me which is very conspiracy oriented.   If you would point me to the historical wind data to debunk these claims, I'd appreciate it.  Unless, the claims have validity. 

First the conspiracy.  http://82.221.129.208/.yb7.html   The assertion is that the data was falsified, and damage not consistent with 155mph winds.   

Second,  Somebody kept referring to wind speed on this weather app https://www.ventusky.com  The winds never exceeded Category one.  I was currently looking at wind speeds at the current "eye" of the tropical storm as it appears on the screen and it says wind speed is not in excess of 10mph while accuweather had 50 mph sustained winds.  How can I account for such extreme differences between the reported speed by media and what appears on this site and Windy.com

Third, https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/sar.php?station=sgof1   I don't see any data that indicates the wind exceeded 50 knots on 10/10.  How can that be? 

Windspeeds at Panama City reach 60 knots and the rest is missing.  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=pacf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT   And the previous data page, all data is missing.    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pacf1&uom=E&tz=EST  Can you help me locate any of the data that indicates wind speed consistent with a Hurricane 4?

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Re: Michael
« Reply #41 on: October 12, 2018, 06:32:20 AM »
I don't usually get into this stuff, but ....

NCDC is archival.  They may not have current data as it takes a few days to review and verify.

Many weather stations have wind limits before destruction, same as most other things.  When winds get to 80, 90 or more, they vanish.  Some fail at lower wind speeds.  The fact you can't find wind readings above that could be an indication there were indeed far higher.



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Re: Michael
« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2018, 07:58:46 AM »
Welcome to the forum!!!   I'm not trying to be harsh, but...

You can kind of look at the photos and videos and realize it was a *little* bit more than a Category 1 hurricane.  Maybe the Airforce staged a mock disaster for a drill, showing those planes tossed around and flipped upside down?  Miles of coastline wiped out?  House after house after house submerged?  Power outages up through Georgia in conjunction with the storm?  Flooding through the Carolinas?  :-| 

If not a major hurricane then what event does "somebody" think caused this disaster?  Or, does "somebody" think that all the destruction is actually staged on a movie set in Arizona and that today is just a regular ho-hum day in Mexico Beach?

Maybe these questions were answered in the yb7 html but I tend to stay away from links I don't know about and from people who suddenly appear in my presence.   I'm sure you understand. ;)

Best wishes.

Hello, 
I was hoping somebody could help me out.  I apologize in advance if my query is off base or ridiculous but I am sharing with you the commentary that somebody sent me which is very conspiracy oriented.   If you would point me to the historical wind data to debunk these claims, I'd appreciate it.  Unless, the claims have validity. 

First the conspiracy.  http://82.221.129.208/.yb7.html   The assertion is that the data was falsified, and damage not consistent with 155mph winds.   

Second,  Somebody kept referring to wind speed on this weather app https://www.ventusky.com  The winds never exceeded Category one.  I was currently looking at wind speeds at the current "eye" of the tropical storm as it appears on the screen and it says wind speed is not in excess of 10mph while accuweather had 50 mph sustained winds.  How can I account for such extreme differences between the reported speed by media and what appears on this site and Windy.com

Third, https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/sar.php?station=sgof1   I don't see any data that indicates the wind exceeded 50 knots on 10/10.  How can that be? 

Windspeeds at Panama City reach 60 knots and the rest is missing.  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=pacf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT   And the previous data page, all data is missing.    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pacf1&uom=E&tz=EST  Can you help me locate any of the data that indicates wind speed consistent with a Hurricane 4?

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #43 on: October 12, 2018, 08:07:40 AM »
Let me say this, too.  I'm no hurricane expert, though I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express several years ago....

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Offline reddclay

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Re: Michael
« Reply #44 on: October 12, 2018, 09:10:37 AM »
Welcome to the forum!!!   I'm not trying to be harsh, but...

You can kind of look at the photos and videos and realize it was a *little* bit more than a Category 1 hurricane.  Maybe the Airforce staged a mock disaster for a drill, showing those planes tossed around and flipped upside down?  Miles of coastline wiped out?  House after house after house submerged?  Power outages up through Georgia in conjunction with the storm?  Flooding through the Carolinas?  :-| 

If not a major hurricane then what event does "somebody" think caused this disaster?  Or, does "somebody" think that all the destruction is actually staged on a movie set in Arizona and that today is just a regular ho-hum day in Mexico Beach?

Maybe these questions were answered in the yb7 html but I tend to stay away from links I don't know about and from people who suddenly appear in my presence.   I'm sure you understand. ;)


Hello, Thank you for your response.   

Their assertions are NOT that there was no hurricane.  That there has been consistent over exaggeration of the storms.  There were people on a forum who were monitoring the wind speeds during the entire time and nobody could find NOAA data that was consistent with a Category 4.  There was obviously a hurricane. 

The assertions are that the damage at Mexico Beach Fl were mostly caused by the surf.   Windows remain in tact.  You see video's when the whole place was flooded causing most of the destruction.  Similar photo's from other hurricanes, show tree's that were totally snapped and uprooted.  There are alot of tree's standing still but I noted that Palm Tree's do not snap.  They are more likely to get lifted out of the ground. 

I've looked at other Florida towns for photo's but can't find much.   Panama city looks like hit got it by a hurricane but very recoverable.  And the other assertion is that it went from Cat. 4 to tropical storm in record time.   

It also doesn't explain why none of us could find winds consistent on Ventusky and Windy.  I did find wind gusts up to 113 kts but not sustained winds.       

The weather monitoring equipment can't withstand 80 mph winds?  If that's the case, where are they getting the data from?   

The buoy's I posted an other nearby do not show winds beyond 30 kts.  That doesn't make sense even if it was a Cat 2 or 3?   

It looks like a hurricane to me.   But I have to prove my case.   There has to be some data that somebody captured during the storm or records that show historical wind speeds?    This is the 21st century.   If MSM is getting the raw data and forecasted models  from NOAH, then NOAH's data should have reflected it in real time or at least be some record.   

I can't respond to them with wise guy comments.   Very data oriented people.  Is Mexico Beach the ONLY place that got "wiped out" from a cat 4 storm?  Must be photographic evidence of other places?

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Re: Michael
« Reply #45 on: October 12, 2018, 10:48:53 AM »
You also have to remember that those windspeed estimates are based on data collected from the C-130 Hurricane Hunter aircraft at flight level, then extrapolated down to ground level.  There can be some error involved there.  Very few ground based weather stations can measure and verify 150 MPH winds.
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Offline bchwdlks

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Re: Michael
« Reply #46 on: October 12, 2018, 03:00:41 PM »
ANY storm that causes ""30 Waffle Houses locations closed" is a MAJOR event.

Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #47 on: October 12, 2018, 03:55:41 PM »
ANY storm that causes ""30 Waffle Houses locations closed" is a MAJOR event.
:shock: :shock:  I DID NOT KNOW THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!  <SHUDDER>

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #48 on: October 12, 2018, 04:05:31 PM »
reddclay, good luck on your search for the data that you're looking for, maybe you will find it.  As for the conspiracy, global warming, bogus whatever...there are nuts on the far left and far right and the far behind, too. Don't lose too much sleep over it.  ;)

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Re: Michael
« Reply #49 on: October 12, 2018, 05:59:51 PM »
Welcome to the forum!!!   I'm not trying to be harsh, but...

You can kind of look at the photos and videos and realize it was a *little* bit more than a Category 1 hurricane.  Maybe the Airforce staged a mock disaster for a drill, showing those planes tossed around and flipped upside down?  Miles of coastline wiped out?  House after house after house submerged?  Power outages up through Georgia in conjunction with the storm?  Flooding through the Carolinas?  :-| 

If not a major hurricane then what event does "somebody" think caused this disaster?  Or, does "somebody" think that all the destruction is actually staged on a movie set in Arizona and that today is just a regular ho-hum day in Mexico Beach?

Maybe these questions were answered in the yb7 html but I tend to stay away from links I don't know about and from people who suddenly appear in my presence.   I'm sure you understand. ;)
I can't respond to them with wise guy comments.   Very data oriented people.  Is Mexico Beach the ONLY place that got "wiped out" from a cat 4 storm?  Must be photographic evidence of other places?
Yes, space. Any trained eye can easily tell the approximate strength of a hurricane just by looking at it from above. You don't see Cat1's and 2's, even 3's, with perfectly formed CDO's. Not only, you have the central pressure readings taken from the NHC planes that fly into the storm directly, which corresponds very closely to wind speed, let alone the raw wind data they collect. As a matter of fact, Micheal had a lower central pressure at land fall than Andrew did, and that was a Cat5.
You don't need anemometers for proof.