Author Topic: Fall/Winter '18/'19  (Read 24643 times)

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #150 on: November 16, 2018, 06:21:34 AM »
And then, there is this:

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #153 on: November 16, 2018, 10:20:32 PM »
Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #154 on: November 16, 2018, 11:17:13 PM »
 :lol: =D>

Offline PaulMy

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #155 on: November 22, 2018, 10:37:28 AM »

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #156 on: November 23, 2018, 03:56:36 PM »
Oh Goody.  I'm overjoyed, can't you tell?

By Saturday evening, this same upper level system reaches the Central U.S.
inducing a low at the surface across the central High Plains. As this low
tracks eastward, a winter storm is likely to develop by Saturday night and
quickly strengthen on Sunday from parts of the Central Plains to the
middle Mississippi Valley. Significant snowfall is possible, and winter
storm watches are in effect from Nebraska/northern Kansas to northwest
Illinois for the potential of 6 inches or more of snow. In addition to
heavy snow, strong winds will accompany this system resulting in the
potential for blizzard conditions in the hardest-hit areas. This
combination of heavy snow and strong winds may lead to power outages and
will certainly make for potentially dangerous travel conditions to end the
Holiday Weekend. This same system will also bring heavy snowfall to
portions of the Great Lakes region by Monday.

Showers will continue pushing eastward tonight from the Gulf
Coast/Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley/Southeast ahead of upper level
troughing. By Saturday morning, rainfall intensity across the Mid-Atlantic
and central Appalachians will begin to ramp up as a surface low develops
off the Southeast Coast. The surface low tracks northward along the East
Coast on Saturday, with the precipitation shield following suit reaching
the New England by Saturday evening. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall/flash flooding from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
Given the proximity of the surface low to the coast, most of the
precipitation will be in the form of rain, except in the higher terrain of
the central and northern Appalachians where light freezing rain
accumulations are possible. Generally, up to a tenth of an inch of ice is
forecast with winter weather advisories in effect from western North
Carolina to western Pennsylvania.


http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #157 on: November 23, 2018, 06:27:11 PM »
Afternoon discussion out of North Platte they are kicking around the idea of upgrading upcoming winter storm to blizzard. 
Randy

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #158 on: November 24, 2018, 06:40:12 AM »
Jackson hole Wy. live stream of snowstorm this morning. Volume works if you unmute.
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #159 on: November 25, 2018, 08:51:03 AM »
CoCoRaHS observation at 7 this morning

Visibility 1/4-1/3 mile
Temp 25
Wind sustained average 20.
Highest gust 45
Light snow, blowing snow
Snow accumulation 1.5-2"


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #160 on: November 25, 2018, 01:47:48 PM »
CoCoRaHS observation at 7 this morning

Visibility 1/4-1/3 mile
Temp 25
Wind sustained average 20.
Highest gust 45
Light snow, blowing snow
Snow accumulation 1.5-2"

About the same up here. .23" moisture, 1.7" snow, .08" fell as rain, .15 as snow.
Randy

Offline chief-david

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #161 on: November 25, 2018, 05:51:41 PM »
As of now  16 inches of snow in Osceola, Iowa. More to fall.

Southeast Nebraska, southern Iowa, Northern Missouri, Eastern Kansas is at a standstill. Moving east to Illinois.

Glad the Chiefs did not play today. The game may have been cancelled until Monday.
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Offline chief-david

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #162 on: November 25, 2018, 07:44:46 PM »
Apparently it's name is Bruce.
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Offline vreihen

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #163 on: November 25, 2018, 08:35:21 PM »
Glad the Chiefs did not play today. The game may have been cancelled until Monday.

As a Bills fan, I can tell you that a little bit of snow rarely stops a football game in Buffalo!

From November 2014, via the local media:






WU Gold Stars for everyone! :lol:

Offline chief-david

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #164 on: November 25, 2018, 08:57:46 PM »
This would have happened during the game. Most people would have spent the night in the parking lot. MO does a good job with roads.
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Offline W Thomas

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #165 on: November 27, 2018, 07:34:56 PM »
Seems like it went from fall to winter overnight here #-o  Already had a semi major icing event that put us in the dark for 3 days. Generator was fine until we ran out of fuel and was unable to get any :-(
Been quite a few years since I remember a Winter Storm Warning this early,with the exception of Superstorm Sandy a few years back.

Previously our home was in a fairly tranquil weather location but since we moved up here in the mountains it seems like it has rained at least every other day. My season rainfall so far is showing 49.30 which right off sounds high but the more I think about it the more I agree! Back in the summer we were getting easily 3-4" a week!  And they said this never happened till I moved here!  Kinda makes me wonder :?

If we get as much snow as rain I might as well check out now LOL!


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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #166 on: November 28, 2018, 04:51:05 PM »
This is always worth watching. Still early though and models have been little flaky for this area. 5-9" current thinking
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Offline wxman1952

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #167 on: November 28, 2018, 10:53:13 PM »
This is always worth watching. Still early though and models have been little flaky for this area. 5-9" current thinking
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Always good to see this on the horizon. We had a Winter Storm watch then Warning last Sunday. Ended up with 6" heavy wet snow.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #168 on: November 29, 2018, 05:50:34 AM »
This was the 00z run of Euro model. It continues to put some impressive snowfall numbers down in middle of Nebraska.
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Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #169 on: November 29, 2018, 08:47:49 AM »
You are in that too. Might be a good one for somebody. NWS in Hastings continues to mention the southward shift of the European model.

We missed the heavy snow last week. It went east of us. Now this one north of us. But the winter is young.


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #170 on: November 29, 2018, 11:54:16 AM »
Noticed that too, the global Euro only updates twice a day however while the other models US forecasters use update 4X and are sticking to guns.  Here is what North Platte latest thinking is. If this comes through even though less than Euro amounts we will have snow cover through much of winter, impacting temperatures several degrees lower all winter with ground snow cover.
Normally we don't see snows 1 foot range until spring storms hit and melt away after few days.
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Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #171 on: November 29, 2018, 01:29:30 PM »
Latest from HSI discussion 11:50 a.m.

FWIW the 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM have stepped in the direction of the last
3 runs of the EC. NAM/GFS QPF`s are heavier than the 06Z runs...
particularly E of Hwy 281. We will probably be adding to our WS
watch with the afternoon fcst pckg...but this depends on
collaboration with neighboring offices.

Wish we would get a nice snow down here this winter.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #172 on: November 29, 2018, 03:53:16 PM »
Latest NAM just came across to public has Valentine at around 20 inches. I also noticed the EURO heaviest has slide west and south some now near North Platte.

Nam:model 1800z
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #173 on: November 29, 2018, 04:01:36 PM »
Here is the latest euro 6 hrs older than NAM however above. Bullseye near North Platte. Will be interesting if GFS starts trending west also on next run.
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Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #174 on: November 29, 2018, 04:44:27 PM »
That same system could bring us 70 or more on Saturday followed by a drop to the mid 30s by Wednesday.

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