Author Topic: Fall/Winter '18/'19  (Read 24883 times)

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Offline chief-david

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #250 on: December 27, 2018, 08:55:59 AM »
wet snow and rain. So wet it clogged up my snowblower. Hit it with the space heater later.
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #251 on: December 27, 2018, 11:07:31 AM »
Yep, the whole system dug to the east further than models originally predicted. We woke up to blizzard warning here after no headlines at all yesterday.

Meteorologist I communicate with says he doubts that forecasting snow amounts will ever be real/totally accurate. The science has a ways to go.

It is a cold one, and windy.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #252 on: December 27, 2018, 01:12:25 PM »
Agree the science just isn't there yet for winter storms.
Funny my rancher cousin was crowing about the storm falling apart and she just texted me she may have crowed to early,  the green radar return is working back across HW83 and she reports heavy snow. The ranch is southeast of red dot Valentine about 38 miles.

Current temperature here 12° winds gusting to 30mph with light snow.
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Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #253 on: December 27, 2018, 01:58:33 PM »
Just what we need.  Another inch or more of rain on top of already swollen rivers.  We were partially flooded in at this time last year.  Maybe going for a repeat?

Here, we needed the rain to keep a drought from establishing itself as it has turned abnormally dry.  Total rain here for 2018 is at 32.61".   Average is 36.71".  Contrast that to Oklahoma City, just a couple counties away, where 2018 stands at no. 7 for most rain at 45.48".   Dec. 26 rain there was 2.72", a record breaker for that day.  Formerly it was 1.60".


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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #254 on: December 27, 2018, 02:47:49 PM »
ValentineWeather, We had a band of moderate snow that snuck in here too; gave us a quick 1 or 2 inches (hard to say with the wind), and reduced visibility to 1/8 mile or less for and hour or two.

I would guess we have no more than 3 inches snow.

But I had 2.19" ice/rain in the cylinder at 7 a.m. today, 24 hr total.  In any case, a lot of precip for December where our average is around .55 for the month. Helps replenish ground water!f

Cold snap coming for New Year's Eve.


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #255 on: December 27, 2018, 04:18:02 PM »
Here is a snow ratio chart you can use when the wind is blowing making normal measurements impossible. Example today air temp 10-14°, .03" moisture is equivalent to approx 0.9" snowfall.

https://eldoradoweather.com/current/misc/snow-to-water.html
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #256 on: December 27, 2018, 04:39:23 PM »
Here, we needed the rain to keep a drought from establishing itself as it has turned abnormally dry.  Total rain here for 2018 is at 32.61".   Average is 36.71".  Contrast that to Oklahoma City, just a couple counties away, where 2018 stands at no. 7 for most rain at 45.48".   


As of yesterday, we're at 59".  Normal is 48" to that date.

Don't know the total for today yet.


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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #257 on: December 28, 2018, 08:30:56 AM »
This site does a 2 week forecast for your area once you set the location:  https://www.timeanddate.com/weather

They seem to model hug quite a bit since the forecasts beyond 7 days can vary widely as you refresh the site day by day.  Overall, it's reasonably accurate if you don't take it too seriously.  Right now mine is showing a cold snap for the first few days of January, then moderating quite a bit through the 11th.

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Offline BKS97

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #258 on: December 28, 2018, 02:56:28 PM »
The snowstorm has moved east, leaving this area with 12 inches or so of new snow.  The sky is supposed to clear today, and with it the temperature will plummet overnight to around -14.  With all the new snow, snowmobile enthusiasts are happy.  So are the local businesses that cater to them.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #259 on: December 28, 2018, 03:45:40 PM »
The snowstorm has moved east, leaving this area with 12 inches or so of new snow.  The sky is supposed to clear today, and with it the temperature will plummet overnight to around -14.  With all the new snow, snowmobile enthusiasts are happy.  So are the local businesses that cater to them.

Not fair only got a couple inches, below zero tonight here also. How much below as always depends on if we get good radiational cooling. Current winds are still blowing 20+ range hopefully they will decouple after sundown. 

Some areas east of us picked over a foot.
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #260 on: December 28, 2018, 03:52:45 PM »
Relatively balmy 6 above forecast for us, still below normal though. We have just enough snow on the ground to keep temperatures down today.

Offline BKS97

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #261 on: December 28, 2018, 04:31:18 PM »
It was pretty windy when I was blowing snow this morning, but this is a heavily wooded area, so sometimes the wind is not a big factor.  My wife is from Great Bend, Kansas, so I know what the wind is like in the open country.  We lived for a while in southwestern Minnesota, where the wind blows a lot also.  In some ways, winter there can be more rugged than up in the forested areas of the state.  The sun can be shining, but when the wind roars in and there is snow on the ground, a “ground blizzard” can pop up with zero visibility. 

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #262 on: December 29, 2018, 11:52:19 AM »
10-13 below zero this morning,  Happened early just after 1am and warmed toward sunrise. They have near 50° toward the end of 7 day forecast so another warm ridge building.
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Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #263 on: December 29, 2018, 01:51:51 PM »
Cold by any standard.
We got to 9 above due to clouds.
50 forecast here by late next week. Time to plant the garden?

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #264 on: December 29, 2018, 02:52:35 PM »
Would need to use a pickaxe to about 13". Soil temps 4"-36"....#1 is 4", #4 is 36". I've seen it freeze down to 36" last February.  :shock:
Snow cover actually insulates somewhat I noticed.

Current soil temperatures
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Randy

Offline ocala

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #265 on: December 29, 2018, 05:01:45 PM »
10-13 below zero this morning,  Happened early just after 1am and warmed toward sunrise. They have near 50° toward the end of 7 day forecast so another warm ridge building.
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #266 on: December 29, 2018, 06:57:35 PM »
"Farther east, the weather will again tend to trend much milder and wetter,
as a storm system develops over the lower Mississippi Valley region on New
Year's Eve and lifts north up across the lower Great Lakes region.
Southerly flow ahead of a low center and attendant cold front will result
in notably warmer temperatures lifting north from the Gulf Coast states
and overspreading much of the Eastern half of the nation. High
temperatures especially along and just west of the Appalachians including
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees above
normal on New Year's Eve. With the influx of warmer air will also be a
substantial amount of moisture, and the expectation is for a rather
widespread area of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms to impact the
Southern and Eastern U.S. from the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
east to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region. Some localized runoff and
flooding concerns will be possible given rainfall amounts of as much as 1
to 3 inches with this next system, and based on this, the Weather
Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.
In
addition to the rainfall, there will be a localized concern for some
severe weather, especially across the Gulf Coast states, and this is where
the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms. The concerns for heavy rainfall and severe weather will
both need to be closely monitored over the next couple of days."

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd



Oh, goody.

 :evil:
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #267 on: December 30, 2018, 10:50:21 AM »
Brother in VA is tired of rain. Over 75" this year I think he said. Inconceivable to me. Really muddy he says.
Good luck dealing with it.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #268 on: December 30, 2018, 11:54:39 AM »
I've had places I could barely walk on for days at a time.  Far too soft and slick for tractor work, even my small ones.  Trying to till some areas just results in goop stuck to the tines.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #269 on: December 30, 2018, 02:25:14 PM »
Brother in VA is tired of rain. Over 75" this year I think he said. Inconceivable to me. Really muddy he says.
Good luck dealing with it.
I'm having a banner year in the low 60's. 75 inches is nuts.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #270 on: December 30, 2018, 05:04:00 PM »
Measly 29". And that's above normal.
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #271 on: December 30, 2018, 05:10:59 PM »
Forecast for another possible 1-2 before year's end tomorrow.

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #272 on: December 30, 2018, 05:42:35 PM »
Will Mom usher in the New Year with some natural fireworks?

"outlook from the Storm Prediction Center concerning the severe weather potential on Monday. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but flash flooding and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. "




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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #273 on: December 30, 2018, 08:36:34 PM »
Measly 29". And that's above normal.

32.18" for calendar year and that is about 8" more than normal.

31.07" for water year 2018, about 7" more than normal.

We have really enjoyed the extra precipitation regardless.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #274 on: December 31, 2018, 01:08:10 PM »
Frigging tornado warnings on New Year's Eve day.  What kind of nutty goofy nonsense is that?

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