Author Topic: Fall/Winter '18/'19  (Read 25102 times)

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #175 on: November 29, 2018, 05:08:52 PM »
Latest NAM just came across to public has Valentine at around 20 inches. I also noticed the EURO heaviest has slide west and south some now near North Platte.

Nam:model 1800z
This low is pretty potent with a decent cold core....maybe some thundersnow??? =D>

Offline Jstx

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #176 on: November 29, 2018, 06:17:57 PM »
Sorry about your WX guys and gals. It was 75+ and partly sunny here today (been below average lately). Headed for 80+ deg F and sunny rest of the week. On Unisys composite/sat/surface national page it looked warmer than S Florida.
Snow? Whut dat?   :twisted:

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #177 on: November 30, 2018, 08:28:11 AM »
Valentine, best get some extra bread and bring in the brass monkeys. 12-18" is a good amount of snow.


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #178 on: November 30, 2018, 09:27:57 AM »
Valentine, best get some extra bread and bring in the brass monkeys. 12-18" is a good amount of snow.

Good advice, worried about power outages in these rural areas mainly for weather station going offline  ...:lol:
I've spent many days camping in mountains so have plenty of cold weather gear and backup heat sources to keep pipes thawed should it be over extended period.
Randy

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #179 on: November 30, 2018, 09:53:23 AM »
EURO had the storm pegged from getgo, pretty amazing how well that model does. This was the midnight run last night. The other models are trending toward the EURO. The NAM did well too, was a little more north and east as well but with higher amounts putting Valentine near 18-20". The other American model GFS is starting to come around but was still putting a big chunk in SE South Dakota but forecasters are generally ignoring it.
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #180 on: November 30, 2018, 10:52:15 AM »
Euro was a Cadillac of models when it was developed. Don't think NOAA was given the budget to develop on a similar scale, but that is IMHO. You are right about it being right on from the start. Our local weather offices nailed the storm last week too.

Think of the panic this storm would cause in the East.

I only hope (in vain I am afraid) that the 4" line for Phillips might be right. ATPT, HSI isn't even issuing us a WWA.

Just nudge that storm 50 miles south?  ;)

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #181 on: November 30, 2018, 11:47:21 AM »


Think of the panic this storm would cause in the East.


Wall to wall coverage as always.  Sure they will have one or more before winters over.
Randy

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #182 on: November 30, 2018, 06:51:18 PM »
Tornado watch out for much of Oklahoma.

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #183 on: November 30, 2018, 07:04:01 PM »
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #184 on: November 30, 2018, 07:55:29 PM »
21 out of 30 days below 'normal'.  7th coldest November on record.

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #185 on: November 30, 2018, 08:13:14 PM »
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

That's what they've been saying, being such a weather nerd I should know more about what "negative tilt" means.
Randy

Online Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #186 on: November 30, 2018, 08:13:20 PM »
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

Aaron Tuttle is covering the storms on Facebook as they are now moving across the Oklahoma City metro.  Only low level severity, so far.

https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/218596922386037/?notif_id=1543462132589816&notif_t=live_video

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Online Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #187 on: November 30, 2018, 08:57:22 PM »
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

Aaron Tuttle is covering the storms on Facebook as they are now moving across the Oklahoma City metro.  Only low level severity, so far.

https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/218596922386037/?notif_id=1543462132589816&notif_t=live_video

LOL, Tuttle got bored with how the weather was doing and signed off. 

The storm currently moving through here isn't rated severe.

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #188 on: November 30, 2018, 11:03:44 PM »
PDS from apparent wedge far eastern OK. Big debris signature.

Online Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #189 on: November 30, 2018, 11:31:53 PM »
PDS from apparent wedge far eastern OK. Big debris signature.

Yeah, there has been a tornado there.  Haven't heard if any towns hit.  Tornado watch was canceled here.

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #190 on: December 01, 2018, 04:59:16 AM »
Well this spring like storm is acting like one for sure. Took until 3:15AM to change over to snow. Probably lost 4" in form of rainfall.
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #191 on: December 01, 2018, 08:49:57 AM »
Very much like a spring storm, yes. We had thunder/lightning last night and .87" of rain.

Turned to light snow (temporarily) before dawn.

Offline Jstx

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #192 on: December 01, 2018, 12:04:00 PM »
Down here in South Texas, we're getting the kind of FROPA this morning that changes the WX from 'not too bad' into fantastic.

It had been mid 70degs recently (overnights ~60), but the RH and dewpoints were a bit sticky. This dry front blows in starting a few hours ago, and the temperature is quickly rising, and the RH/DPs are falling off a cliff.
73deg F and climbing (headed for 80+?), RH down to ~28%, dewpoint ~40deg F.
And the wind, WNW, gusts to 43.4mph, sustained ~28mph. FROPA blew the partial cloud cover away, nothing but blue skies.
Can't hardly get better than this.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2018, 12:08:32 PM by Jstx »

Offline chief-david

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #193 on: December 01, 2018, 07:29:35 PM »
snowing now. about 1-2 here. More to the south. May be around 4-5 by tomorrow morning.
Just got my snowblower back from a tune up. So tomorrow it will be a crank up and use it.
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Online Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #194 on: December 03, 2018, 05:19:57 PM »
Story of the damages from tornado in eastern Oklahoma during Friday night with drone video.

https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-storms-leave-catastrophic-damage-in-eastern-oklahoma

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #195 on: December 03, 2018, 05:57:41 PM »
Story of the damages from tornado in eastern Oklahoma during Friday night with drone video.

https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-storms-leave-catastrophic-damage-in-eastern-oklahoma
Well, that explains the "big debris signature", quite the mess. I'm guessing EF3 at it's peak.

Online Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #196 on: December 03, 2018, 11:23:01 PM »

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #197 on: December 04, 2018, 05:59:44 AM »
 Euro vs US GFS
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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #198 on: December 05, 2018, 01:13:24 AM »
Pre White Christmas coming to Oklahoma.  Snow amounts for Oklahoma projected for this weekend.  Euro model:


« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:43:16 PM by Bunty »

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #199 on: December 05, 2018, 06:33:39 PM »
Oklahoma meteorologist Aaron Tuttle's take on the winter storm coming to much of Oklahoma:  https://aarontuttleweather.com/2018/12/04/winter-storm-what-you-want-to-know-details-and-snow-totals/  Most of the Texas panhandle is also under a winter storm watch.

Winter Storm Watch  for much of Oklahoma:
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Washita - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Fri, 12/7 6:00am    Updated: Wed, 12/5 5:27pm    Urgency: Future
Expires: Sun, 12/9 12:00am    Severity:  Moderate     Certainty: Possible
 
Details:

...Winter Storm Expected Friday morning through Saturday
Evening...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of
at least 6 inches. Ice accumulations up to three tenths of an
inch are possible.
* WHERE...The heavier snow accumulations will mainly be across
northern and western Oklahoma. The heavier ice accumulations
are expected to extend from southwest Oklahoma into central
Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City.
* WHEN...From Friday late morning through Saturday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
across portions of the area due to the ice. Road conditions will
vary across Oklahoma and western north Texas, depending on
ground temperatures and the rate of accumulation of snow and
ice. Ice may accumulate on bridges and overpasses, even where
main roads do not freeze.

Information:

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Oklahoma counties covered in blue:

« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 07:17:26 PM by Bunty »

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