Author Topic: Hurricane IRMA  (Read 15071 times)

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #75 on: September 09, 2017, 02:14:51 PM »
Where ya' been Slow?   Last post was over a year ago!
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Offline DJFaninTN

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #76 on: September 09, 2017, 02:15:47 PM »
still watching from the panhandle making sure it doesn't go due west anymore. it wouldn't shock me if that happened.

waiting on putting up hurricane shutters until late Saturday PM or early Sunday AM.  :roll:

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #77 on: September 09, 2017, 02:35:10 PM »
If Irma gets to me as the five day track hints, it would be the third this year after Cindy and Harvey.

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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #78 on: September 09, 2017, 02:49:05 PM »
If Irma gets to me as the five day track hints, it would be the third this year after Cindy and Harvey.

Hmmm, 2017, an anomalous year, ~1850-2017, an anomalous period; or the "New Normal"  :twisted:, hint hint .

Offline CNYWeather

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #79 on: September 09, 2017, 03:02:44 PM »
Not everyone has left. You can watch the dummies this afternoon on the Southernmost Point webcam

Tony




Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #80 on: September 09, 2017, 03:17:51 PM »
You would think from that cam there's no storm coming.
Here's another live one from key west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #81 on: September 09, 2017, 03:32:53 PM »
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU
 

Offline Sooner Al

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #82 on: September 09, 2017, 03:43:47 PM »
From NWS Key West...

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #83 on: September 09, 2017, 03:52:10 PM »
Key West radar is showing the eye wall moving completely back over water.... 8-[ 

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #84 on: September 09, 2017, 04:08:41 PM »
Key West radar is showing the eye wall moving completely back over water.... 8-[
Right on cue, the CDO is getting it's act back together. Oh boy...Now we watch for the progged right turn.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #85 on: September 09, 2017, 05:01:29 PM »
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU

When this happens you go fast and far away as you can.
Most memorable for me was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sucking the beaches dry and people wandering around, most didn't make it.
Randy

Offline ocala

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #86 on: September 09, 2017, 05:15:00 PM »
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU

When this happens you go fast and far away as you can.
Most memorable for me was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sucking the beaches dry and people wandering around, most didn't make it.
I have seen it in regards to tsunami's but not not wind driven.

Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #87 on: September 09, 2017, 05:15:40 PM »
Yes, Irma's beginning to lift away from the Cuban coast, a very slight bend in course northward.
How, and if, this course change holds and/or increases, will determine where it slices the Keys, and where it impacts the Florida coast.
Irma will be crossing the area where the Gulf Loop Current joins the Gulf Stream, and both are anomalously warm now, a significant intensification could be just hours away.
Irma could also possibly traverse and remain over the East part of the Loop Current, this link has a good write-up on how that has intensified many cyclones (as does the Gulf Stream).
Gulf Loop Current
All the models take it onto a WNW/NW/NNW/N course, but it's now clear the Irma will have an excursion to some degree into the Gulf of Mexico, where SST's (and positive heat anomaly) could affect that and certainly the intensity.

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Offline Jstx

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #88 on: September 09, 2017, 05:28:02 PM »
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU

When this happens you go fast and far away as you can.
Most memorable for me was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sucking the beaches dry and people wandering around, most didn't make it.
I have seen it in regards to tsunami's but not not wind driven.

A wind-driven tidal movement is extremely common on many bodies of water, tsunamis are rare. The wind-water level effect is a constant factor in boat navigation. Lake Erie is a good example in extremis, Texas bays and barrier islands another. It works both ways, the water level can go down to nothing, or it can flood to record levels (on top of the normal tides).
Everything from launching a small craft from a ramp, to getting in and out of a slip and setting dock lines are affected by it. Let alone traversing 'skinny water' with a keelboat when the fetch of a brisk wind has taken a foot or four off the charted depths  :shock:.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #89 on: September 09, 2017, 05:38:08 PM »
My plate's been kind of full.  But it's good to check in.  :)
Greg Whitehead
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Offline Old Tele man

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #90 on: September 09, 2017, 05:53:05 PM »
A SUPER WORST-CASE scenario: Irma continues into GOM and "bites" either Houston or New Orleans...again!
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #91 on: September 09, 2017, 06:02:00 PM »
A SUPER WORST-CASE scenario: Irma continues into GOM and "bites" either Houston or New Orleans...again!
With the trough bearing down from the NW, NHC and the models think that's highly unlikely.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #92 on: September 09, 2017, 06:35:52 PM »
Maybe premature, but the last few radar scans appear to have slowed, if not stopped the forward progress. Perhaps the trough influence is starting and the further right turn will commence shortly.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 06:39:31 PM by CW2274 »

Offline WxLover16

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #93 on: September 09, 2017, 06:49:07 PM »
Check this out, first time I've ever seen this in my forecast.

MondayTropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 65. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday NightTropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

They're saying I could get about 4" of rain with gusts around 50mph or so. Gonna be nasty here!
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Offline WxLover16

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #94 on: September 09, 2017, 06:51:11 PM »
Maybe premature, but the last few radar scans appear to have slowed, if not stopped the forward progress. Perhaps the trough influence is starting and the further right turn will commence shortly.

I think you're right; the turn we've all been waiting for could be coming shortly. I just hope I don't lose power.
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #95 on: September 09, 2017, 07:29:48 PM »
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 07:31:56 PM by SlowModem »
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline Old Tele man

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #96 on: September 09, 2017, 08:03:24 PM »
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history
You can see the 'rain bands' coinciding with the passing of feeder bands as they passed over that location.
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Offline chief-david

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #97 on: September 09, 2017, 08:11:58 PM »
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history

From its WU station. It says it read a 250mph wind gust.
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #98 on: September 09, 2017, 08:19:40 PM »
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history

From its WU station. It says it read a 250mph wind gust.
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Shocking. I remember a few years ago they had my dew point hotter than the surface of the sun. Not kidding. :roll:

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Hurricane IRMA
« Reply #99 on: September 09, 2017, 08:26:01 PM »
Yeah, I think that's not going to pass the QA check.  But I never have been crazy about the way WU reports gusts.  It never seems to correspond with CWOP or PWS.

It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history

From its WU station. It says it read a 250mph wind gust.
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« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 08:29:27 PM by SlowModem »
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


 

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