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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: ocala on August 27, 2019, 07:20:20 PM

Title: Dorian
Post by: ocala on August 27, 2019, 07:20:20 PM
Way early I know but several models have it coming into Cape Canaveral on Sunday as a TS.
It would be awesome. A tropical storm on a 3 day weekend. Couldn't ask for a better weekend.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SoMDWx on August 28, 2019, 07:40:49 AM
Now forecasted to be a hurricane by landfall.....
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 28, 2019, 10:59:29 AM
I'm not worried yet even though its headed right for me. Give it a few days. It will probably change yet again.

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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 28, 2019, 02:01:12 PM
Oh schnikes! Now its a CAT 1 and predicted CAT 3 at landfall still headed straight for me.

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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Chris Hinkle on August 28, 2019, 06:58:53 PM
A lot of the models have shifted further south.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on August 28, 2019, 07:37:20 PM
Euro is well south.
I'm ready. Got all the gas for the genny tonight.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on August 28, 2019, 07:38:20 PM
A lot of the models have shifted further south.
What's up Chris. Long time no hear
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Chris Hinkle on August 28, 2019, 07:50:04 PM
 Hey Ocala! Yeah, I stop in from time to time. Been super busy raising a family. You got a room ready for us up your way if we have to evac?  :lol:

A lot of the models have shifted further south.
What's up Chris. Long time no hear
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SlowModem on August 29, 2019, 01:19:26 AM
I saw the cone and thought of you Florida folks.   8-[  I hope it fizzles out before it gets there.  I know you know how to prepare.  So I'll just keep you in my thoughts and monitor things from up here.  Be safe!
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 29, 2019, 06:14:51 PM
   8-[  I hope it fizzles out before it gets there. 
Now progged to make landfall as a Cat 4....
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 29, 2019, 09:14:33 PM
Yep now I'm beginning to worry, I'm still in the cross hairs. Gas stations ran out of gas today all around. Grocery stores decimated of water, bread and canned food.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 29, 2019, 10:07:03 PM
Yep now I'm beginning to worry, I'm still in the cross hairs. Gas stations ran out of gas today all around. Grocery stores decimated of water, bread and canned food.
Since you're far enough inland, storm surge won't be your problem, however power and drinking water very well may be as well as passable roads from torrential rain. If you're riding it out, I suggest a bleached cleaned bath tub full of water, at the very least.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: chief-david on August 29, 2019, 10:14:46 PM
It is safe here.

All are welcome. But my generator is at the inlaws cabin after a storm.
And it may snow soon...... :grin:

Hope it all goes well down there.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Chris Hinkle on August 29, 2019, 10:21:00 PM
Pressure down to 980mb. Almost Cat 2.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 30, 2019, 07:15:43 AM
Yep now I'm beginning to worry, I'm still in the cross hairs. Gas stations ran out of gas today all around. Grocery stores decimated of water, bread and canned food.
Since you're far enough inland, storm surge won't be your problem, however power and drinking water very well may be as well as passable roads from torrential rain. If you're riding it out, I suggest a bleached cleaned bath tub full of water, at the very least.

Yes being inland definitely means I'm usually not worried about the storm itself.  It's the aftermath of days without power and drinking water supply contamination that is bad. We always fill a tub and have plenty of bottled water along with all the other preparatives.

This storm has shifted landfall to hit further South but it is still dog legging for me as a CAT 1. That is enough to not do serious damage but enough to potentially make it a miserable week without power and water.

Being inland the worst I've seen is a CAT 3. I'll take a hurricane any day with days to prepare for, than an unexpected EF 3 or 4 or 5 tornado.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SlowModem on August 30, 2019, 07:46:52 AM
Looks like some folks are going to be in for a wild ride.   8-[
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 30, 2019, 08:36:37 AM
The anticipation is killing people around here as every updated forecast shows the storm slowing down and getting stronger. First it was Sunday as a CAT 1 and then it was Monday as CAT 3 and now its Tuesday as a CAT 4. 

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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on August 30, 2019, 09:10:30 AM
Brings back the horrible feelings I had when Florence was coming for us... If you think you should go, don't wait too long, just do it. I left, but then the storm dropped to cat 2. I still think I did the right thing.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 30, 2019, 12:47:58 PM
This is the first update where I've seen a track change to the north.  They now have it running up the peninsula.  Could it possibly turn north further east and skim or miss land?

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: racer3 on August 30, 2019, 03:30:43 PM
Euro model now tracking it offshore.  I can only hope it follows that.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 30, 2019, 03:58:02 PM
The anticipation is killing people around here as every updated forecast shows the storm slowing down
Yep, the last thing you wanna hear. From the NHC:

By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula.  This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on August 30, 2019, 04:35:06 PM
I've had a strong feeling that the high would weaken and allow the Hurricane to turn north, and the latest model runs are indicating this just as it begins to interact with land. I'm thinking it could turn even sooner and head north towards the coastal Carolina's.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: chief-david on August 30, 2019, 05:06:45 PM
Brings back the horrible feelings I had when Florence was coming for us... If you think you should go, don't wait too long, just do it. I left, but then the storm dropped to cat 2. I still think I did the right thing.

I would leave for every storm....Maybe that is why I live here.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 30, 2019, 05:09:16 PM
5PM track, further east, now running up the coast instead of coming inland.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on August 30, 2019, 05:36:07 PM
Let's hope it will keep going and miss everyone.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 30, 2019, 05:38:09 PM
5PM track, further east, now running up the coast instead of coming inland.
That could even be worse....now, the eye wall has the potential to stay over the reaaaaaly warm water and lose little if any intensity as it rakes it's way up the coast. Fl topography will do nothing to help shear it either. Wow, this could be all around super bad.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 30, 2019, 05:53:59 PM
Other thing I noticed is a drop further south which will hit the Bahamas harder.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Chris Hinkle on August 30, 2019, 06:07:38 PM
Impressive
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SlowModem on August 30, 2019, 06:11:43 PM
The local news in Chattanooga just ran a story about the local Red Cross preparing to deploy if needed.  I'm sure the power companies will have a fleet of trucks and personnel ready to go, as well.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 30, 2019, 07:10:34 PM
TWC just reported that 60% of metro Miami gas stations are dry. At least people are listening.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 30, 2019, 07:37:35 PM
Really getting a nice CDO and the visible showed the "stadium effect" starting to occur just before sunset. I think little doubt it'll be an easy 4 on the next advisory.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-14-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DrBwell on August 30, 2019, 10:50:27 PM
Iím in St. Augustine, about 20 miles inland. Based on the wunderground model it says 81 mph winds by me on Wednesday. Got the generator running , 3 cans of propane and a 5 gal jug of gasoline. I hope thatíll be enough if we lose power. Gas stations by the coast are dry, but not a problem so far at the inland stations. I must admit, Iím excited about how my WS2000 will perform on Wednesday.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Vette-kid on August 30, 2019, 11:29:26 PM
My parents are in Titusville.  Trying to convince them to leave in the morning.  My 94yo grandfather lives with them and it's tough to move him, but I don't think he would survive a week without power.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 31, 2019, 12:04:42 AM
Looking at the latest loop, the CDO is becoming perfectly symmetrical and the eye wall is shrinking, a Cat 5 is certainly knocking on the door.
This is gonna be a long few days for alotta folks. 8-[
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 31, 2019, 04:59:47 AM
Yes! It's turning away. This is why I say to remain calm until at least 3 to 4 days. Who needs more time than that to prepare and/or evacuate?  I'm doing the happy dance. Unbelievable that yesterday local schools already canceled school for Tuesday (Monday is a holiday).

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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Vette-kid on August 31, 2019, 05:47:34 AM
I don't find it unbelievable or inappropriate.  There is still significant risk and chance of land fall.  The smart thing to do is cancel school and other activities to allow people the ability to do what they need to.  Happy dance of you wish, but your still at risk.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: waiukuweather on August 31, 2019, 05:51:20 AM
yes, there is weak steering flows, and that forecast track is just the average of lots of ensemble runs
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 31, 2019, 06:34:30 AM
From the real source (No WuWu nonsense), track centerline is now completely off shore until SC:

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on August 31, 2019, 08:14:47 AM
I don't like how "the real source" does not show projected hurricane wind speed category. It only has 2 levels (H, M).
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on August 31, 2019, 08:18:55 AM
Right now, I would be very concerned from the Low country of SC, all the way to Hatteras. Start to get your plans in motion. Once the storm begins to turn over the Bahama's, it should sit still for a day or so, and then the models will be able to read it's future path with a lot more certainty I believe. Right now, it's way to speculative to give a hint of an all clear all the way up and down the SE coast of the US.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 31, 2019, 08:32:54 AM
Right now, it's way to speculative to give a hint of an all clear all the way up and down the SE coast of the US.

The coast is not clear.

There will be effects from W. Palm northward until wherever it turns back out to sea or dissipates.  How substantial those effects will be is very much in question, but likely to be less wind damage than a direct landfall.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on August 31, 2019, 09:19:45 AM
The models are now indicating that once it turns, it will move very rapidly to the north and northeast possibly...
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on August 31, 2019, 11:31:17 AM
If the stall over/near the Bahamas happens, I wouldn't take any forecast into next week to the bank.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DrBwell on August 31, 2019, 11:44:12 AM
I was told that a similar think happened with hurricane Matthew. It turned into Florida and caused a lot of damage. I guess weíre not in the clear until it passes by.


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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on August 31, 2019, 12:03:44 PM
3 days out the NHC is pretty good with track guidance.
I would say at this point it's a non event for inland Florida.
Every model  I looked at has it offshore heading north. I guess things could change but
not expecting them to.
This is part of the 11AM discussion.
Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days.  This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Papa on August 31, 2019, 01:33:44 PM
Hope it keeps moving east, right now it is dead on my beach house. Sister is full time across street on ICW.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 31, 2019, 02:00:23 PM
2PM takes it further offshore, now more skimming NC than direct into SC.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 31, 2019, 05:20:57 PM
5PM, Advisory 30, now even further off shore, may even miss NC at this rate.

TS Watch posted for part of FL though.  There will be winds, rain and rough surf.  Unlikely to completely miss all of that at this point.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on August 31, 2019, 06:48:37 PM
spaghettimodels (Mikes Wx Page) is an excellent source for all graphics.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: nincehelser on August 31, 2019, 08:28:48 PM
spaghettimodels (Mikes Wx Page) is an excellent source for all graphics.

https://www.facebook.com/ChefRichardWilson/videos/2537079256354637/

The Weather Channel be like.... #hurricane #spaghetti #moreaccuratethanweatherchannel #floridabelike #florida
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on August 31, 2019, 08:51:25 PM
 :lol:    Was not expecting that.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on August 31, 2019, 09:10:05 PM
I just hope it doesn't straighten out and go inland after all.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on September 01, 2019, 06:39:41 AM
Guess I spoke too soon. In the past 24 hours the  models are trending back to the west so the track was moved ever so slightly back  west. It was enough for me to go out and top off the tanks this morning.
If the trends continue wouldn't be surprised to see the track moved again. NHC doesn't like to make huge changes at once so if they do it will probably be a small, if any move.
Keeping things interesting for sure. :?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on September 01, 2019, 06:42:07 AM
spaghettimodels (Mikes Wx Page) is an excellent source for all graphics.

https://www.facebook.com/ChefRichardWilson/videos/2537079256354637/

The Weather Channel be like.... #hurricane #spaghetti #moreaccuratethanweatherchannel #floridabelike #florida
=D>
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on September 01, 2019, 07:55:13 AM
Cat 5, 160mph, 927mb.

Northern Bahamas... I can't imagine.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on September 01, 2019, 08:47:11 AM
Live weather station in the Bahamas. Just east of the eye.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABACOGU2
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Vette-kid on September 01, 2019, 08:48:07 AM
What is the steering force that would push Dorian northward?  I understand the two highs blocking it, but in their absence, what would cause it to go north?  Why not just carry on to the West?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on September 01, 2019, 08:53:12 AM
Not sure but I do know that well defined storms tend to move poleward.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 01, 2019, 09:02:01 AM
927 hPa... Cat 5... Wow
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Chris Hinkle on September 01, 2019, 09:04:56 AM
Some uncertainty is felt in this podcast at 8am this morning from Ken Graham.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201909011204.mp3
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Vette-kid on September 01, 2019, 09:55:15 AM
175mph!!!
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2019, 10:18:49 AM
At this point there will be all kinds of uncertainty.  Anything is possible.   Remember Charlie.



Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2019, 10:20:48 AM
They really need to cut the dramatics though.  Almost seems like Irwin Allen is writing some of their text.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Chris Hinkle on September 01, 2019, 10:34:57 AM
I remember. Was 10 miles from the eye at home. Last minute wobble left thousands unprepared....including me.

At this point there will be all kinds of uncertainty.  Anything is possible.   Remember Charlie.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 01, 2019, 11:07:32 AM
180 MPH??????? Why is this thing still gaining power? What happened to the dry air?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2019, 11:09:49 AM
Three more brewing also.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SoMDWx on September 01, 2019, 12:09:23 PM
Dorain is entering an area of deeper, warmer water with no/little shear........

This storm could be one for all times....
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Vette-kid on September 01, 2019, 12:19:45 PM
Three more brewing also.

Where?  I've not seen this
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2019, 12:57:20 PM
Three more brewing also.

Where?  I've not seen this

You haven't seen the NHC main page?

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 01, 2019, 01:04:26 PM
Three more brewing shown here:

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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2019, 01:20:23 PM
CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on September 01, 2019, 01:32:08 PM
What is the steering force that would push Dorian northward?  I understand the two highs blocking it, but in their absence, what would cause it to go north?  Why not just carry on to the West?

From the 11am EDT NHC discussion:

Quote
The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is
expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects
in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west
to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours, with a turn to
the north and an increase in forward speed as the mid-level trough
along the eastern United States deepens and becomes the dominant
steering feature.

That is still days out, though, adding uncertainty. Hence we now see the watches upgraded on the FL coast.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Vette-kid on September 01, 2019, 01:51:00 PM
Three more brewing also.

Where?  I've not seen this

You haven't seen the NHC main page?

Honestly, I kept skipping over that graphic, thank you. 
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 01, 2019, 03:15:37 PM
There is still a spread in these models, particularly, the HWFI, which is a hurricane model. However, they all tend to agree that once the storm makes the turn, it will go north and northeast rather quickly (in relation to these storms and the speeds they typically move) HWFI goes almost due east. None of the models go into upstate SC and NC like what I would be looking for if I were to anticipate a direct landfall right now, so that is some good news, and they have been very consistent too in predicting this out to sea motion. The models always seem to shift back and forth a bit most times, and this time that has been very minimal. The cold front and high pressure coming down later in the next few days seems to be strong enough to turn this beast on out?

Thoughts? Opinions?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 01, 2019, 03:45:38 PM
Tropical systems are nothing more than like a cork floating in a bathtub, they're completely dependent on other forces for it's movement as well as it's "health". The trough draped across the mid-Atlantic states will certainly turn the storm to the right, the problem is when.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 01, 2019, 03:58:50 PM
CMC and HWRF are taking it into Florida and Georgia! HWRF and HWFI have been showing this all day. Now the CMC is also taking this route. That would be catastrophic.

Has anyone mentioned these on TV?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: waiukuweather on September 01, 2019, 03:59:34 PM
they tend to move towards areas of falling air pressure  and are also influenced by upper level steering winds (which if strong enough means they can run into high pressure to a degree)
but once they become a monstor, like this one, then they are the environment
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 01, 2019, 04:22:32 PM
The EE set of models are in, and they are ramming it into the coast anywhere from Daytona Beach up to Charleston, and even possibly now Myrtle Beach. We need to really pay attention to this trend. These EE models have been the very best so far, with an error of 100 to at most 200 miles in 5 days.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: waiukuweather on September 01, 2019, 04:32:29 PM
There is a huge amount of angular momentum with a system like this
it take a lot to change its direction
If it stalls then sure it can then start moving in a different direction
but otherwise its move a gradual turn
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 01, 2019, 05:11:53 PM
I'm seriously wondering if some of the cays of Bermuda will even exist after this. Bad enough to get slapped one direction at a sustained buck eighty five, let alone gusts, they're getting from both sides, and taking it's time to boot.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on September 01, 2019, 06:02:57 PM
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings up for parts of Atlantic Coast of Florida.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: konz on September 01, 2019, 11:46:18 PM
Not sure but I do know that well defined storms tend to move poleward.

Maybe based on the Coriolis effect and prevailing winds.  The same occurs for ocean currents - clockwise in the northern hemi and counter-clockwise in the southern hemi.

Quote
"The Coriolis Effect describes the turn of the wind to the right in the Northern Hemisphere caused by earth's rotation. Why do I care? The Coriolis Effect contributes to the circular motion of the wind around pressure systems which move weather patterns in the southeastern United States."
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: konz on September 01, 2019, 11:50:59 PM
Found this WeatherHawk 610 and had never heard of such a brand - no moving parts.  Hope it stays up.  Just looked at the WU radar of the storm and my heart goes out to those living there.  They've got to be taking a beating.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWESTGRA2?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash (https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWESTGRA2?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash)

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 02, 2019, 01:21:54 AM
This thing has slowed to an absolute crawl...if even that, and the island will do little to weaken it before it has done it's carnage. I suppose one could hope this is the influence that will start it's right turn....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-15-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: ocala on September 02, 2019, 06:32:47 AM
The before and after sat pics for Michael were very telling.
These will probably be off the charts.
At this point just a TS watch just to my east so not much gonna happen here.
But of course a slight deviation west could change that.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SlowModem on September 02, 2019, 09:43:09 AM
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.  There's just no telling where this thing is going to go.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 02, 2019, 10:31:37 AM
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.  There's just no telling where this thing is going to go.

Dry air is coming down from the north on the water vapor loop. This should begin to interact with the Hurricane, and weaken it, along with begin to pick it up in the trough and move it northeast.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 02, 2019, 03:25:25 PM
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.

2PM, WNW at 1MPH.

I'd say that's stalled.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 02, 2019, 03:57:20 PM
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.
I'd say that's stalled.
You guys are late to the party, I made that comment 14 hours ago....
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on September 02, 2019, 06:14:45 PM
Hurricane warnings now extend north to just short of Jacksonville (from just north of West Palm).

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 03, 2019, 04:31:54 AM
Seeing the latest forecast, I feel like I dodged a bullet.

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Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 05, 2019, 06:21:47 PM
Very tranquil here now. Dorian has begun to weaken, and is moving NE as anticipated. These models are amazingly accurate now. The GFS had this forecast nailed many days ago.
Dry air is intruding, and the cold front is going to keep it along the outer banks and rapidly move it off the NC coast. I think we may see 50 MPH wind at my location later tonight, but this one won't be anything like what I've witnessed before. Tornadoes have been the threat in isolated locations today in eastern NC>
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 05, 2019, 06:38:42 PM
Yes, was just looking at the radar, appears nothing more than a rain/wind/some beach erosion event for you guys. Outer banks may see the worst of it.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 05, 2019, 06:41:49 PM
Tornadoes have been the threat in isolated locations today in eastern NC>
Fortunately, land interacted tropical storms usually only make EF0 and 1's, just enough to rip the roof of the tool shed.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Papa on September 05, 2019, 10:39:48 PM
Been watching 2 WU sites at Holden Beach NC. Unimpressive wind so far and barometric pressure is beginning to rise.ay have dodged a bullet.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 06, 2019, 08:37:04 AM
Storm is moving out. Still breezy. Highest wind 51 MPH. Rain over 5 inches, but is not standing. Very dry summer here. Power still on, but around the area some are without, but not very many I don't think...
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: VaJim on September 06, 2019, 11:15:09 AM
https://www.weatherlink.com/embeddablePage/show/e332f72cc9084580893360b22dbef184/wide
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 06, 2019, 05:30:24 PM
Speaking of tornadoes....

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on September 06, 2019, 05:51:15 PM
I have to give props to the NHC for the forecast work on Dorian. Particularly tricky with a stalling storm. I know there were a lot of weather balloons launched in the continental US to get extra data to help with the steering situation. I wonder how much that helped.

This is also a slam-dunk retired name give the catastrophic damage.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 06, 2019, 06:14:32 PM
I have to give props to the NHC for the forecast work on Dorian. Particularly tricky with a stalling storm. I know there were a lot of weather balloons launched in the continental US to get extra data to help with the steering situation. I wonder how much that helped.

This is also a slam-dunk retired name give the catastrophic damage.
Agreed, NHC rocked it...again. Upper air plots are crucial, especially in these scenarios.
I was quite surprised that there's been 89 retired storm names. Waaay more than I thought.   
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: vreihen on September 06, 2019, 08:01:26 PM
The talking heads on one of the NYC TV stations showed a map tonight forecasting that Dorian would strengthen from a Cat1 back to a Cat2 off the coast of NJ tonight.  Apparently the ocean is that warm.....
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 06, 2019, 08:41:54 PM
The talking heads on one of the NYC TV stations showed a map tonight forecasting that Dorian would strengthen from a Cat1 back to a Cat2 off the coast of NJ tonight.  Apparently the ocean is that warm.....
Even if, the upper low over Lake Ontario will push it further out to sea, everyone on this side of the pond is done with it. Maybe Europe can have some fun with it.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 06, 2019, 09:29:18 PM
Even if, the upper low over Lake Ontario will push it further out to sea, everyone on this side of the pond is done with it.

Doesn't appear that way for The Maritimes.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 06, 2019, 10:04:56 PM
Even if, the upper low over Lake Ontario will push it further out to sea, everyone on this side of the pond is done with it.

Doesn't appear that way for The Maritimes.
Yeah, that neck of the woods always sticks out further than I remember. It's moving along fine as usual at this latitude, so should hopefully be no more than a show.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 07, 2019, 07:32:55 AM
(https://i.cbc.ca/1.5274679.1567850995!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_780/dorian-warnings.jpg)
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 07, 2019, 03:48:10 PM
Some light reading:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Jasiu on September 07, 2019, 03:58:27 PM
CAT 2 now heading to Nova Scotia.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 07, 2019, 04:06:24 PM
This storm is relentless. It weakens and then it strengthens. It might just go around the Atlantic for another loop. /s

I've seen storms make loops. Usually they are small loops. Has anyone ever heard of a storm go around wide and come back down after reaching Europe to warmer waters and then having another go at the Americas?

Someone should know how to research that.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 07, 2019, 04:14:51 PM
Has anyone ever heard of a storm go around wide and come back down after reaching Europe to warmer waters and then having another go at the Americas?
Not going to research it, but am fairly sure at least a semblance of this nature has occurred before.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Notsorusty on September 08, 2019, 03:47:38 PM
It will come around and make landfall in Alabama, check with The POTUS, he has the forecast maps.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: alanb on September 08, 2019, 07:12:35 PM
It will come around and make landfall in Alabama, check with The POTUS, he has the forecast maps.
I am surprised there hasn't been more discussion about this on the forum … not so much about what Trump said, but about the NOAA instructing their scientists to not contradict. It seems like a dangerous precedent when people need the most accurate information available about an approaching storm.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 08, 2019, 08:43:13 PM
At one time, models did have the track towards Alabama. NBC is a network of nonsense. If you even kept the cone going, it would have possibly impacted Alabama!
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: alanb on September 08, 2019, 09:11:45 PM
At one time, models did have the track towards Alabama. NBC is a network of nonsense. If you even kept the cone going, it would have possibly impacted Alabama!
Understood. I guess I was referring more about the reaction to NOAA than about what Trump said. https://www.apnews.com/e0680f910cdd43e4be257720e182948e. Sounds like a credibility hit against NOAA.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 08, 2019, 11:07:30 PM
Yeah would have brought the subject up sooner, but talking politics is against the forum guidelines.

All you have to do is look at the first page of this forum and see capeweather's post and you can see the spaghetti models touching Alabama outside of the cone, no Sharpie needed.
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=37724.msg388100#msg388100

I frankly do not understand the media coverage of this story, nor POTUS reaction to it all, and NOAA and NWS. Like really sheez who the hell cares.

This much is true though....POTUS spoke with outdated (but 100% correct for the prior day) information on Sept 1st at 10:54 AM. Because by then the storm had already dog legged for up the center of Florida and up onto Georgia, missing Alabama. If you're gonna talk, you should have current information. Everyone knows that hurricane updates happen every 3 hours on the 8, 11, 2, 5 hours.

The whole mess with NOAA and NWS is nonsense. The story and the unbiased facts are clear to me. Why does't anyone report this? Both sides are wrong.

There I made sure this post was not politically biased or charged. I both supported POTUS and criticized him at the same time.
 
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: CW2274 on September 08, 2019, 11:24:38 PM
I frankly do not understand the media coverage of this story
:lol: Where've you been?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 08, 2019, 11:40:39 PM
I frankly do not understand the media coverage of this story
:lol: Where've you been?

I know. But I just can't believe that the media still thinks we are all idiots. How long can they keep this up?

I don't watch the news anymore for information. Now I watch it for entertainment, and I laugh at the reporters, panelists, an opinion journalists. They are the clowns and buffoons. I guess that is why they keep doing it, because they still have an audience no matter what and I'm contributing to their success. But I have to say I tune in much much less than I used to. It gets tiresome and there are other things to do for fun.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: waiukuweather on September 09, 2019, 12:38:50 AM
Trump was using outdated information .
Why does he not just admit that was the problem?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: alanb on September 09, 2019, 12:48:17 AM
I guess what bothers me is NOAA instructing their experts to allow misinformation to go uncorrected (if that is what actually happened). As destructive as Dorian was and is, the public deserves to have the best and latest consistent information available from the national weather service.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: galfert on September 09, 2019, 01:19:32 AM
I guess what bothers me is NOAA instructing their experts to allow misinformation to go uncorrected (if that is what actually happened). As destructive as Dorian was and is, the public deserves to have the best and latest consistent information available from the national weather service.

This did not happen. What NOAA said is being misreported and has been churned and words have been twisted. NOAA just said that NWS (Birmingham location) broke protocol by speaking in absolutes when clearly some Alabama probability existed of tropical storm impact to Alabama even still on September 1st.

But everyone with an opinion is picking and choosing words. POTUS said hurricane impact to Alabama when in reality it was just tropical storm impact to Alabama (by Sept 1st latest data models). But it was a storm that was a hurricane and was known that it was going to strengthen to at least a CAT 3 at the time.

NOAA statement. Read it yourself and not as interpreted by the media:
https://www.noaa.gov/news/statement-from-noaa

Quoted here in case link above is taken down:
Quote
Statement from NOAA
September 6, 2019

From Wednesday, August 28, through Monday, September 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama. This is clearly demonstrated in Hurricane Advisories #15 through #41, which can be viewed at the following link.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_34_F120

The Birmingham National Weather Serviceís Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.

Want to step through every combined model in every report? Here you go. Just click stop and then use the left right arrow buttons. See Sept 1st still has a bit of Alabama in the probability for tropical storm impact.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_34_F120

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: waiukuweather on September 09, 2019, 01:49:53 AM
but it would have weakened crossing the land mass of Florida if it did head towards Alabama
Alabama was the least of the worries and should not have even been mentioned that far out
Why does he just admit that was a mistake to mention it?
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 09, 2019, 04:06:24 AM
talking politics is against the forum guidelines.

.........
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: SoMDWx on September 09, 2019, 06:35:50 AM
Please let this die and move on to real weather stuff...  :roll:
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: WeatherHost on September 09, 2019, 07:05:51 AM
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


64 advisories is getting up there, but I don't think it's anywhere near any kind of record.

Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: Notsorusty on September 09, 2019, 04:05:49 PM
Now that things have calmed down for most of us, would anyone with a PWS affected by Dorian want to share the experience? Interesting readings recorded, total destruction of the machine, photos etc. I realize that power outages usually kills data logging but I am interested in what machines are robust enough for that type of weather. Us Midwesteners don't get these long lasting intense storms. Just an occasional tornado that blasts everything to pieces in minutes.
Title: Re: Dorian
Post by: waiukuweather on September 09, 2019, 04:10:55 PM
I had someone contact me in Nova Scotia, their weather station got washed away by the ocean! (sea wall where it was mounted collapsed and got washed away)