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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: marshad on August 01, 2019, 07:18:06 PM

Title: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: marshad on August 01, 2019, 07:18:06 PM
I am a relatively new member to this forum, so first of all, please forgive my ignorance and presumption.

BUT, having read a lot of what's on here, there seems to me to be a very large elephant in the room - CLIMATE CHANGE.

This is probably the most important issue facing the world today, and yet in this forum of 15000+ weather enthusiasts worldwide, I can't find any serious discussion.

I know that there are those that think climate change is 'false news' and some sort of conspiracy - and so it is important that we have facts and data.

We have the data.

What can we, as watchers of the weather, contribute to the debate?

marshad
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: galfert on August 01, 2019, 07:35:25 PM
Politics not allowed in this forum. Besides this forum is about weather and climate to some degree....but climate change is totally different.

If you want to talk about climate or climate change then I'm sure you'll find company here. Just be sure it doesn't swing into politics....which might be a difficult thing to keep in check.

Yeah I know you said facts and data...not politics. But climate or climate change is not facts and data but the interpretation and analysis of the facts and data....and then it probably turns political.

See it is already getting hairy.

There is nothing in forum posting guidelines and registration agreement that says that discussing politics is or isn't allowed:
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=3991.0

But there is this as evidence that the administrators will not allow politics:
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=30711.msg304520#msg304520

But I'm nobody. Have at it and see what happens.
(Edit: I was nobody back when I posted this. Now I'm a Global Moderator.)
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: marshad on August 01, 2019, 07:55:05 PM
Thanks for the advice galfert, and good thing you edited your post. We could have had some fun with "this forum is about weather and not about climate".

But believe me, I don't want this to be a political debate - it is not about politics.

If the administrator considers climate to be an inappropriate subject for a weather forum, then please feel free to delete the thread.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: AWL on August 01, 2019, 08:00:16 PM

If the administrator considers climate to be an inappropriate subject for a weather forum, then please feel free to delete the thread.

Don't really think it is the topic rather the tempers that begin to flare.....everyone has an opinion and they stick to it!
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: CW2274 on August 01, 2019, 08:30:00 PM
But believe me, I don't want this to be a political debate - it is not about politics.
That's exactly what it has been, now becoming more so than ever. True science has taken a back seat for every person who has a bully pulpit, be it a politician or our all knowing, moronically self righteous jokes we watch on our TV screens that have absolutely NO business opening their pie-holes, except that they can and do because they can preach to the masses. Unfortunately, many listen.
See what I mean?
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: galfert on August 01, 2019, 10:20:28 PM
I said nothing of collecting and analyzing and won't argue that part is science. I said "interpreting" the analysis was political because then that interpreting goes into cause and effect. Oh I fear I have already said too much. Slippery slope.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Jstx on August 01, 2019, 11:54:10 PM
Ruh-oh... BTDT.
I'm out of popcorn too, dang it. 


This sorry thread barely got a bite [I'm working up a factual rebuttal since it appeared, but time is/has been short]:
https://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=37557.msg386443;topicseen#msg386443
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: badhairday on August 02, 2019, 06:11:32 PM
@marshad, For what it is worth, I agree with what you are saying and have wondered the same thing.  Obviously, some folks really have and issue with the subject! 
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: marshad on August 02, 2019, 07:43:13 PM
Thanks badhairday and to all who have responded. The reaction was interesting.

If you don't think this is a topical subject, here is a sample from today's news:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49205072
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/02/europe/europe-heat-wave-3-degrees-hotter-scli-gbr-intl/index.html

Basically Europe has just had its hottest July on record and it's probably down to climate change.

But hey that's just news, and we know that cannot be relied upon. We also have opinions, hearsay, rumours and lies on which to base our decisions.

If people perhaps have gotten over the shock of my original post - can we revisit it:



We have the data.

What can we, as watchers of the weather, contribute to the debate?



I have three years of data for my location, probably not statistically significant, but yes it shows it's getting hotter.

I know that there are members out there who have 10, 20, perhaps 30 years of data - what does it show?

There is perhaps a more fundamental question here - why do we amateur weather enthusiasts do what we do? Is it just to have the most accurate sensor or to have the prettiest charts on our webpage? Or do we actually care about the meaning of the data we are collecting?


Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: WeatherHost on August 02, 2019, 08:12:06 PM
Basically Europe has just had its hottest July on record

'On record' is at best a couple of hundred years.  Get back to us when you have 20,000 years of data.

You DO know how the Great Lakes were formed, right?  How many cars were running around then to cause that warming?

Your elephant is pink and has wings.

Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: galfert on August 02, 2019, 10:46:34 PM
Wow!

Anyone seen rormeister and his popcorn?
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: rormeister on August 03, 2019, 12:52:53 AM
Wow!

Anyone seen rormeister and his popcorn?
Looks like it's time to re-order. I offered a peace offering to the WUFixers, but they declined. They said they had a better source.  As for the topic at hand, the jury and I are still out. After a record 36" snowfall in the east side of Seattle last February, I will reserve my humble opinion. (oh...for anyone who isn't familiar with Seattle, it rains here...beneath our umbrellas even)
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Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: ValentineWeather on August 03, 2019, 04:50:08 AM
One of the coldest February's on record for us also. The thing about cold unlike heat it can't be misinterpreted because of urban sprawl, heat islands etc.
If I remember correctly Chicago experienced the coldest temperature (ever) recorded for any month last winter. This is hard to do because the cold had to overcome the massive expansion of concrete and steel in Chicago to do this.
 
For this location, our trend is cooling. Here are the accurate untampered with temperatures for this location over the last 2 years and monthly departure from normals.
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Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: WeatherHost on August 03, 2019, 05:59:59 AM
We all talk about our own backyard, but remember that 'global' is a bit bigger.  Note the blue areas mixed into the red:

(https://i1.wp.com/www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/hotjune.png)


Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: marshad on August 03, 2019, 10:47:34 AM
Basically Europe has just had its hottest July on record

'On record' is at best a couple of hundred years.  Get back to us when you have 20,000 years of data.

You DO know how the Great Lakes were formed, right?  How many cars were running around then to cause that warming?

Your elephant is pink and has wings.



Hi WeatherHost, Dumbo here  :grin:

Seriously, thanks for posting the surface air temperature anomaly chart. The source seems respectable.

Not sure I understand the point you are making about the blue bits, but the vast majority of the planet seems to me to be pinker than my elephant.

Ps I’ll try and get back to you on the 20,000 years of data. There was a guy in Bedrock called Rubble uploading to WU, but they have lost his data. You are right about the cars, but they did seem to have a serious problem with dinosaur emission levels.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: marshad on August 06, 2019, 06:54:54 PM

The weather warriors return to their rain buckets, and all is well with the world.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: gwwilk on August 07, 2019, 10:30:53 AM
Perhaps this (https://thefederalist.com/2019/08/07/guide-scientifically-address-climate-change/?utm_campaign=ACTENGAGE) is a more balanced view?

My apologies in advance if this article offends you...
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: chescopawxman on September 04, 2019, 09:20:22 AM
Just to add some factual real world data of a non-heat island impacted area - my data is from 35 miles west of the PHL Airport heat island that is the "official" recording. Out here in the rural hills of SE PA below are some detailed data over the last 13 decades going all the way back to 1894. This is NWS COOP and FAA data for the time period. I have included both temperature trends and snowfall trends. Of course this will not solve the climate debate. However, in it's own small but valid NWS data does not for this location support a warming climate....changing.... absolutely as climate always will. But are we just in a warming cycle with a cooling cycle coming?? While all scientist can agree that climate is always changing...where there is certainly not consensus or fact (such as the world is flat) is that man is causing climate change. What does amaze me as an earlier poster mentioned is how angry folks on the man made climate change get when you say you are not sure as there is not universal 100% scientific alignment on the topic. They call you a climate denier (whatever that means) Anyway I hope some of you find the data below of interest and or value when compared to the urban heat island of the PHL Airport. Thanks!!

Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: galfert on September 04, 2019, 10:54:33 AM
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” - Mark Twain.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: chescopawxman on September 04, 2019, 11:55:22 AM
" If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine.” – Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO

"The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight.” – Carly Fiorina, former executive, president, and chair of Hewlett-Packard Co.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: galfert on September 04, 2019, 02:07:50 PM
Good ones! Emphasis on former.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Weatheroger on September 04, 2019, 03:00:46 PM
Climate has always changed on this wonderful planet. I believe there can be a consensus on this. The big issue is what is driving this change and what are the largest factors of influence. For some, there is politics in the interpretation of the data and the gleaned statistics of that data. Both can both be massaged to support a theory and guide popular opinion one direction or the other for one's own purpose. I read both sides. For me, the truth lies near the middle.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Greg_M on September 05, 2019, 07:37:56 AM
The climate has been changing for approximately 4-1/2 billion years on this planet.
Live with it.

The rest is BS.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 06, 2019, 04:35:49 AM
We have politicians openly stating they want to throw 70% of the GDP at it now. If this isn't a wakeup call what it's really about, What is?  Creating a global system of taxation and control. Climate change is just the vehicle being used to reach the end goal. 
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Intheswamp on September 06, 2019, 07:54:10 AM
Collecting and analyzing weather data is SCIENCE, denying said science is POLY-TICKS.

DISCLAIMER: Neither Pachyderms nor Donkeys were harmed in the stating of the above obviousity.
Now you're talking about harming dumb animals!!!  Where's the data that they weren't harmed?  Where's the data that they were actually Pachyderms or Donkeys???  This is all stressing me out!!!!  I've got to...got to...got to go to my safe space!!!! 

HEY!!!! WHO USED ALL THE TOILET PAPER!!!!!!????????????  #-o
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 18, 2019, 01:51:30 AM
My latest Blog. I'm proud to called a denier because I have facts that can't be disputed.  I'm a denier of bad science.


09/17/2019     Reached 93° at the NE weather station Sunday and 88° on Monday and 89 today. We may be done with the chance of '90s after today for the year. Overall it's been a cool summer with below normal temps. Yes a little hard to believe with the global warming hysteria when year after year we are normal or below. They call us Deniers...LOL, Then they follow up with more FAKE news. I have data from coop stations in the region if interested that prove if anything we may be cooling. Guaranteed we are not warming here, the climate is unchanged. Subtract the bogus + 2° coming off ASOS at airport and climate is normal. Go to area observations compare with Ainsworth only 36 mi. as Crow flies. Look at temps dewpoints and humidity the KVTN ASOS is wrong in almost all areas especially temperature and humidity. I'm not going to continue to babysit it's up to the public to see whats going on. This station has accurate data with 100% humidity in fog while the airport never goes above 94% with the +2°F ambient error. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out. And excuse my French if you want to belive the BS about climate change go ahead. It's all about the vehicle to total socialism power and control.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Bunty on September 18, 2019, 02:27:32 AM
My latest Blog. I'm proud to called a denier because I have facts that can't be disputed.  I'm a denier of bad science.


09/17/2019     Reached 93° at the NE weather station Sunday and 88° on Monday and 89 today. We may be done with the chance of '90s after today for the year. Overall it's been a cool summer with below normal temps. Yes a little hard to believe with the global warming hysteria when year after year we are normal or below. They call us Deniers...LOL, Then they follow up with more FAKE news. I have data from coop stations in the region if interested that prove if anything we may be cooling. Guaranteed we are not warming here, the climate is unchanged. Subtract the bogus + 2° coming off ASOS at airport and climate is normal. Go to area observations compare with Ainsworth only 36 mi. as Crow flies. Look at temps dewpoints and humidity the KVTN ASOS is wrong in almost all areas especially temperature and humidity. I'm not going to continue to babysit it's up to the public to see whats going on. This station has accurate data with 100% humidity in fog while the airport never goes above 94% with the +2°F ambient error. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out. And excuse my French if you want to belive the BS about climate change go ahead. It's all about the vehicle to total socialism power and control.

But at the most you're speaking for your own area of the world and for your weather station for climate change, not the whole world.

As controversial as global warming is, I believe in doing nothing about it, other than clean up after the storms. 

Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: davidmc36 on September 18, 2019, 05:40:59 AM
Climate has always changed on this wonderful planet. I believe there can be a consensus on this. The big issue is what is driving this change and what are the largest factors of influence. For some, there is politics in the interpretation of the data and the gleaned statistics of that data. Both can both be massaged to support a theory and guide popular opinion one direction or the other for one's own purpose. I read both sides. For me, the truth lies near the middle.

I fall more middle also.

I think pollutants.....chemicals, plastics, etc are more worrisome than a temperature cycle that we may or may not be influencing to a measurable degree and likely can have little influence over.

I wish I had a weather station that collected data like the TAMDAR we ran on some of the Jet scheds  a few years back.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Cutty Sark Sailor on September 18, 2019, 12:12:51 PM

Well... FWIW
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions (https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions)
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: davidmc36 on September 18, 2019, 12:48:51 PM
Climatologists are like doctors. They don't know half what they think they know.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Greg_M on September 18, 2019, 02:51:27 PM
Anyone remember back in the 70s when all the scare-ists said we were heading for a giant ice age and the poles would all freeze up and cause huge polar caps that would then calve and cause huge tidal waves which would drown us all?
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Cutty Sark Sailor on September 18, 2019, 04:26:24 PM

Anyone remember back in the 70s when all the scare-ists said we were heading for a giant ice age and the poles would all freeze up and cause huge polar caps that would then calve and cause huge tidal waves which would drown us all?

Well... FWIW
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions (https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions)
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: badhairday on September 18, 2019, 04:59:08 PM
I remember reading where people thought the earth was the center of the universe.  People even thought the world was flat!  Oh wait, some people still think that.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: wxthomson on September 18, 2019, 09:49:29 PM
Haven't we been though all of this before?

Hey Elephant, please leave the room!
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: jas340 on October 11, 2019, 03:03:29 PM
The science is in. There is no man made climate change. Our future will be colder. PLEASE watch the following videos. Caution, these movies require above average intelligence to comprehend.

The 10 minute short version:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tul07hx8V8w

The full movie:        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEWoPzaDmOA&t=1092s
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Bunty on October 11, 2019, 10:20:10 PM
The science is in. There is no man made climate change. Our future will be colder. PLEASE watch the following videos. Caution, these movies require above average intelligence to comprehend.

The 10 minute short version:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tul07hx8V8w

The full movie:        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEWoPzaDmOA&t=1092s

The future may already be here, since the low tonight is supposed drip just below freezing, which will break a record in Oklahoma City.  It doesn't normally do that until around Nov. 1.  But is this the weather changing or is it the climate? 
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Intheswamp on October 12, 2019, 08:41:17 AM
Bunty, down here in south Alabama we're just exiting from a long, hot, drought.  We've had multiple record high temps and pretty much zero rainfall (unless you were fortunate enough to be beneath a cloudburst) over the last 30-45 days.  Pretty well fire bans from one end of the state to the other.  Thankfully the 95-100F temperatures have given way to the upper 80Fs and is hopefully dropping a little lower after this weekend...*and* a real chance of some rain!!!!!  =D> =D> 

Nothing stays the same, things change.  Has "man" caused global warming?...he most likely has contributed to it.  Sending fumes and smoke into the atmosphere can't be a good thing.  I read an article several years back, though, that was asserting that if the world had anywhere near the tree canopy that it had in the past that the natural filtration system could handle those pollutants.  But, massive clearing of old growth forests here in the USA, in the Amazon Basin, and in most any other country/place in the world has taken away our best defense against "global warming", poor air quality, etc., etc.,.  But "progress"...quest for food production (fields), the needs for lumber, and the basic greed of man has mowed most of the forest lands down.  Pretty much anything "modern" has a thread (even if it is a fine one) leading back to fossil fuels.  If not, then the process of manufacturing creates emissions that go "somewhere".  The computer screen that we look at, the vehicle we drive to work, the synthetic *and* natural materials that we cloth ourselves with, the asphalt in the roads, the wire bringing electricity to our houses and businesses,...everything contributes to a more "dirty" environment.  I'm no tree-hugger (though I like trees :) ), it's just logic that we're leaving footprints (and lots of them) most everywhere we go.  Are the footprints causing "global warming"?...I dunno, but the footprints are there, there is no denying that part.  I recently had a reality check on a trip to Uganda.  Definitely a third world country...the land has been stripped of most natural resources, people walk miles to get a jerry can full of water, to get an armload of firewood for cooking, the cities have a lingering layer of smoke from garbage being burned, etc., etc.,.  The education level is very low.  And that is just one country in east Africa...many more like it around the globe.  Indifference (more important priorities than the environment to these people), ignorance (most people there haven't ever heard of the ozone layer), need (cooking wood is scarce, but no other power to speak of to cook their meager meals with).  Very little wood is used in building structures...mud brick, a few roof trusses, and mostly steel windows and doors. 

I don't believe anybody intends/intended to mar our world with toxins...the indifference, ignorance, and need all add to the equation.  The current environmental situation is somewhat like a "Comedy of Errors"...but, not very entertaining.

When I look to the south of where I live and see the 10's (100's) of thousand acres of clearcuts, where old stand timber once stood, and I see weak pine trees planted in rows...well, something just doesn't seem comforting about that.  When I was a teenager and the wholesale clear-cutting was underway with the little pine saplings being planted a friend of mine quipped one day "You know, one day our grandchildren will believe that pine trees all grow in rows".  We're pretty much at that point.

Cycle?  Man caused?  Climate change?  Global warming?
Nothing stays the same, things change...


Edit:  Misspelled "add" as "and"...
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Greg_M on October 12, 2019, 09:04:54 AM
Look up the volume of pollutants volcanoes spew when they go off. Quite a bit more than any man made cause. This has been happening for quite a long time and yet the Earth manages to recover.

The bottom line is our sun controls the temp on this planet.

Al Gore Made Nearly $200 Million from the Global Warming Scam
http://humansarefree.com/2016/11/al-gore-made-nearly-200-million-from.html (http://humansarefree.com/2016/11/al-gore-made-nearly-200-million-from.html)

Chicken Little had nothing on the current crop of doomsayers.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: arrowspace90 on October 13, 2019, 12:17:47 PM
Climate change is a matter of science, and no political parties own science.  Though some no doubt believe they do.
If the thermometers around the world agree that average temps are rising, ok.
To claim the higher ground of "why" temps are rising is another matter.  Scientists are free to use numbers to make predictions.  The data they use to support their conclusions is open to discussion.  Just like in all branches of scientists, you are free to substitute your own data and predictions.
Moralizing with political zeal, as many do, is not part of science.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Greg_M on October 13, 2019, 12:27:01 PM
........and then you have humorous stuff like this happening......

‘Climate Warriors’ filming documentary Stuck In Arctic Ice – All 16 climate activists evacuated from ship by helicopter


https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/09/09/climate-warriors-filming-documentary-stuck-in-arctic-ice-all-16-climate-activists-evacuated-from-ship-by-helicopter/ (https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/09/09/climate-warriors-filming-documentary-stuck-in-arctic-ice-all-16-climate-activists-evacuated-from-ship-by-helicopter/)

 :lol:
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: CW2274 on October 13, 2019, 02:51:35 PM
Don't worry everyone....AOC has it all under control.

Calling climate change “a direct threat to the national security of the United States,” the resolution calls for the United States to “achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions through a fair and just transition for all communities and workers.”
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: chief-david on October 13, 2019, 04:06:57 PM
Anyone remember back in the 70s when all the scare-ists said we were heading for a giant ice age and the poles would all freeze up and cause huge polar caps that would then calve and cause huge tidal waves which would drown us all?

Me. I was 5.  1973. Corn not harvested. Combines frozen in the field because of the wet weather and then it froze.
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Intheswamp on October 15, 2019, 08:49:08 AM
Don't worry everyone....AOC has it all under control.

Calling climate change “a direct threat to the national security of the United States,” the resolution calls for the United States to “achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions through a fair and just transition for all communities and workers.”

If she groups us in with greenhouse emissions from cows then we're in *real* trouble!!!   :-&
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Old Tele man on October 15, 2019, 02:40:04 PM
What? No more re-fried Mexican Beans (frijoles)?
Title: Re: The Elephant in the Room
Post by: Intheswamp on October 17, 2019, 05:43:49 PM
What? No more re-fried Mexican Beans (frijoles)?
Renewable energy....   [tup]