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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: WeatherHost on March 03, 2019, 09:21:23 AM

Title: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 03, 2019, 09:21:23 AM
MAM and JJA 2019 on tap.


I was waiting for somebody else to do it, but I guess most people are still buried in snow and sub-freezing temperatures.

With the weird Winter, we can only hope for a tranquil Spring without severe storms and a not searing hot Summer.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: vreihen on March 03, 2019, 09:55:41 AM
March is certainly coming in like a lion in many parts of the country.....
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on March 03, 2019, 10:50:27 AM
Football Fans--channel your inner Jim Mora.

SPRING?????????????? Don't talk to me about Spring???????? You kidding me Spring???
I just hope the snow melts before May!!!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 03, 2019, 02:10:57 PM
Football Fans--channel your inner Jim Mora.

SPRING?????????????? Don't talk to me about Spring???????? You kidding me Spring???
I just hope the snow melts before May!!!
[tup]
I was looking at snow depths, many areas average 2 feet and I'm sure plenty of moisture because its compacted down.  Nebraska has one of the lower amounts with most areas well under a foot.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 03, 2019, 04:03:08 PM
Wish y'all'd close the freezer door up there after you get the steaks out.  I really don't mind if you don't share.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 03, 2019, 04:27:18 PM
Speaking of frozen steaks, how are the herds doing out there this great frozen winter in beef country?

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on March 03, 2019, 05:29:06 PM
Early Sunday morning, it came a heavy dusting of snow (not freezing rain this time) and once again the Stillwater Emergency Management Director gave another tour of road conditions in Stillwater, mostly on the outskirts.  Here are some of the more interesting points on this very long video.

1.  33.00 - Drive to the airport with a stop to watch the American Eagle get deiced.
2.  44:00  - Gate opened for a better look.
3.  1:37.00  - Pickup speeds past director and soon later slides past red light.
4.  2:15.00 -  Director himself kinda has close call, but salted intersection saves the day.  He proceeds to the interior part of town.
5.  2:18:30 - Director makes sudden turn to check out why two cop cars are stopped in the middle of Main St.

And a good number of out of state and international people were viewing.
https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/572439659924287/?multi_permalinks=2091785630911949%2C2091769677580211%2C2091754780915034%2C2091740174249828%2C2091672004256645&notif_id=1551642608073219&notif_t=group_activity (https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/572439659924287/?multi_permalinks=2091785630911949%2C2091769677580211%2C2091754780915034%2C2091740174249828%2C2091672004256645&notif_id=1551642608073219&notif_t=group_activity)

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on March 03, 2019, 06:51:52 PM
Just saw some tornado damage from AL., with fatalities. I'm thinking some possible EF4 stuff by the type structures leveled.
It's been very quiet the past 4-5 years...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Otis on March 04, 2019, 07:33:10 AM
It is hard to think spring; our temp this morning was -9.5.  It has warmed up though, now it is -7.2.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 05, 2019, 12:17:14 PM
At 25/12 (-25/Normal), yesterday was our farthest below normal since Jan 16, '18

Ahhhh, Spring is in the air ....  (but it's frostbit).



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on March 05, 2019, 08:22:11 PM
Speaking of frozen steaks, how are the herds doing out there this great frozen winter in beef country?

We haven't had any killer blizzards to this date, so other than extreme cold in some areas things are looking decent.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 09, 2019, 02:42:31 AM
An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Oh goody.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 09, 2019, 02:43:30 AM
Speaking of frozen steaks, how are the herds doing out there this great frozen winter in beef country?

We haven't had any killer blizzards to this date, so other than extreme cold in some areas things are looking decent.

Extended periods of subzero temperatures and feet of snow don't bother them?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 09, 2019, 03:16:08 AM
Tidbit I noticed from the charts.....

4 of the last 7 years ('13, '14, '15 and '18), March has been 'below normal' while '16 and '17 were above.  This year is starting out well below normal and forecasts show that trend continuing with brief warmer periods.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on March 09, 2019, 08:32:17 AM
Speaking of frozen steaks, how are the herds doing out there this great frozen winter in beef country?

We haven't had any killer blizzards to this date, so other than extreme cold in some areas things are looking decent.

Extended periods of subzero temperatures and feet of snow don't bother them?

We just don't get the extended periods of subzero temperatures here. ValentineWeather is more likely to get that stuff. Our winter here has been cold, lowest minus 16, with snow; but we have not had any deep snows. Combinations of extreme cold and deep snow are bad for cattle yes. We haven't had that here this  winter. This county is a big cow-calf county. The cold can be tough on newborns.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 09, 2019, 06:19:28 PM
And by the way, it's that unnecessary TIME of year again ... 2AM-ish
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 09, 2019, 08:34:06 PM
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/2019/03/09/610temp.20190309.fcst.gif)


Hmmmm, how 'bout that.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on March 10, 2019, 02:28:57 PM
At least that map isn't in January.  It will be more welcome in July and August.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 11, 2019, 02:13:25 PM
Over 14,000 members, over 100 on-line today and only the same ten or so posting on these seasonal threads.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 13, 2019, 12:42:16 AM
Appears the worst effects of this next system will pass north and west of us AGAIN, like pretty much every other bad system has in recent months.  I'm not looking for ward to whatever pattern change will bring us our reckoning.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 13, 2019, 12:46:12 AM
Quote from: NWS Weather Prediction Center
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 13 2019 - 00Z Fri Mar 15 2019

...A very active weather pattern in store from the Southwest into the
Plains as a surface low rapidly deepens...

...Heavy snow and strong winds will impact the Rockies and
Central/Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with blizzard conditions
likely in some areas...

...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather are all possible in the
warm sector of the low system...

...Warmer than normal in the East ahead of the cyclone and colder than
normal in the West behind it...

Over the next couple of days, an upper-level low will move across the
Southern Rockies, spinning northeastward through the Central Plains and
then into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system
will rapidly strengthen in the lee of the Central Rockies Tuesday night
and move slowly into the Central Plains on Wednesday, then tracking
through the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. These features will create a
myriad of weather hazards across the U.S. through Thursday.

Firstly, to the north and west of the surface low, heavy snow is likely to
spread across the Rockies and into the Plains. The San Juan Mountains,
Central Rockies, and parts of the Central to Northern Plains are expecting
12 to 18 inches of snow, with isolated amounts of 2 feet. The strong low
(nearing record low pressure values) will lead to a tight pressure
gradient, which causes high winds. Thus, blizzard conditions are possible
for the Central/Northern High Plains. The heavy snow and visibility near
zero will create extremely dangerous travel conditions, and power outages
are also possible.

South and east of the low, rain and thunderstorms will be the main threat.
On Tuesday evening and night, strong to severe thunderstorms will spread
across eastern New Mexico and into Texas, where there is an Enhanced Risk
of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. After the cold front
passes, strong winds are likely in the Southern Plains with the
aforementioned tight pressure gradient on Wednesday. Ahead of the cold
front moving east, thunderstorms are likely across the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday, and a Slight Risk of severe storms is in place. Heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding are possible as well in the
Southern/Central Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday,
while on Wednesday, a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in place across
parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Additionally, the
warm air on the east side of the system means precipitation will fall as
rain as far north as the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. This area has an
extensive snowpack, so flooding is possible as the rain could cause
snowmelt.

The CONUS will be divided temperature-wise, with much above average
temperatures in the eastern half of the country and below average
temperatures in the east. Highs in the 60s will spread as far north as the
Great Lakes region by Thursday, 15 to 25 degrees above normal. In the
West, highs of 15 to 25 degrees below average are expected for the
Intermountain West Wednesday and into the Northern/Central High Plains on
Thursday. Low temperatures will stay within 5 to 15 degrees below average
in the West.


Tate

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 14, 2019, 01:18:12 PM
WFO kinda' wiffed on the wetfall forecast.  They were calling for around an inch.  Storm Totals appear to be closer to 3.



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 14, 2019, 03:07:22 PM
Now I'm wondering if WFO PAH was hit:

"The National Weather Service confirmed a tornado touched down in McCracken County, Kentucky on Thursday, March 14.

According to Kentucky State Police, first responders were notified at around 9:20 a.m. on Thursday of a tornado in West Paducah.

Approximately 5 square miles of western McCracken County were affected by the tornado,  ... "


"Keith Todd with the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet said crews are responding to damage in western Kentucky specifically at the Barkley Regional Airport also on US Highway 60 and 62.

Todd said they are receiving reports of outages. The area of Lovelaceville was hit hard, according to Todd."


http://www.kfvs12.com/2019/03/14/first-alert-rain-continues-fall-stronger-storms-way/

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 19, 2019, 04:48:22 PM
Near perfect Spring day, Sunny, mild, calm winds. Great for all that yard work that's been waiting.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on March 20, 2019, 08:39:29 AM
Happy to see spring arrive. Having my morning coffee and watching the sun come up out the southeast window and the moonset out the southwest window. High 61 today. Perfect.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 20, 2019, 12:07:01 PM
Not exactly perfect but above freezing is a great improvement. Still melting snow, creeks and rivers are really running and possibly flood increases this weekend again with rain in the forecast. Ground still froze at 4" this morning but should thaw before the weekend is the hope with 50's prior in the forecast.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on March 20, 2019, 01:45:21 PM
I can now post in the spring thread

Although I may still be a few hours earlier.

good day. 42 right now.  Warm with two light coats on.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: JudinNorman on March 20, 2019, 04:10:51 PM
I can now post in the spring thread

Although I may still be a few hours earlier.

good day. 42 right now.  Warm with two light coats on.

Chief,. Much of a flood threat in your area ?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on March 20, 2019, 05:15:33 PM
around the river areas.

St. Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, Buffalo. A lot of rural. It is going to get worse before better. Snow is melting fast. St. Paul ending parking restrictions tomorrow

I have always tried NOT to live close to a river. At the very least, live on a hill.
I am sure my daughter in Fargo/NDSU will volunteer to sandbag.

(https://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=MPX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.999&noclutter=0&t=1553116345&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lat=45.00822067&lon=-93.33930206&label=Robbinsdale+Middle+School)

(https://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=MPX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&noclutter=0&t=1553116457&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.500&centerx=367&centery=273&transx=-33&transy=33&showlabels=1&severe=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lat=45.00822067&lon=-93.33930206&label=Robbinsdale+Middle+School)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on March 20, 2019, 05:21:15 PM
Iowa and Nebraska much worse off.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on March 24, 2019, 04:25:59 AM
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XuEazAUuZGm5rLzatRbZFsJwGbQ=/0x0:960x768/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:960x768):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/15979703/12561.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Fredicere on March 29, 2019, 10:11:04 AM
Washington State weather might be the best off right now, ironically enough after their snowstorm in the winter.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on March 30, 2019, 02:38:10 PM
With no rain scheduled till Monday looks like this March will end on a very dry note.
.21 was all we could muster. :-(
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 30, 2019, 06:49:43 PM
We may end up around 7", or about double normal.  Send me a few tanker trucks and I'll fill 'em up for ya'.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on March 31, 2019, 08:32:08 AM
1.50" for March here. That is about .43 below normal. I hope this is not the beginning of the dry/draught cycle. Always waiting for that in Kansas.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on April 01, 2019, 06:29:40 PM
In Oklahoma City March was 5.1 degrees below normal and drier than average or .36 below normal.  No lows to freezing in the 10 day outlook, so probably no more freezes for the rest of April.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 02, 2019, 02:04:26 PM
3 Degrees below normal with nearly 3 extra inches of rain, which interestingly came almost all on one day:

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 05, 2019, 08:24:31 AM
Interesting FC discussion from HSI (Hastings, NE) weather office, for coming week:

Pattern begins to change on Tue as a trough deepens over the W
CONUS and a warm front develops over the C Plains. This trough
will deepen in response to amplifying ridging at higher
latitudes, namely from the Gulf of Alaska NE toward Greenland.
This will allow upper lows to amplify/strengthen "beneath" them
and potentially become cut-off. This scenario has support from
climatology as we are in peak "cut-off low season". This blocking
pattern looks to continue into the following weekend which may be
setting the stage for an even stronger/colder system compared to
the mid-week system. Plenty of time to fine tune details,
obviously, but pattern is almost certainly setting up to be a much
colder and more active one compared to the start of the week.

Considering the aforementioned pattern, tend to favor the
stronger/slower solution of the EC compared to weaker/faster GFS.
Would not at all be surprised if system slowed down even further,
maybe even by as much as 12-24hrs. However, as it stands now, a
strong storm system looks to emerge onto the Plains on Wed. Much
too early to discuss specifics, but depending on exact
timing/track, could be looking at a scenario with both
strong/severe tstms and snow impacting NE/KS (maybe even both in
our local area) Wed into Thu, esp. if stronger EC solution
verifies. Certainly a time period to watch.

Below normal (and maybe even well below normal) temperatures move
in behind the system for the end of the week, and suspect going
forecast will only trend lower. As previously mentioned, models
hint at yet another system to impact the area the following
weekend.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 05, 2019, 12:48:49 PM
Snapshot of current EC. Looks like it's leaning on northern Ne. southern SD. region.
Still 5-6 days out so lots could change, EC is usually best model for location but often over estimates precip amounts. GFS current run trending toward EC now. Was much more south previous runs. 

Euro
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GFS
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 06, 2019, 12:29:25 AM
Kind of late for our location to receive significant snow, so not surprised to see the shift north.

I would be happy to see some liquid precip here. We haven't had the big amounts that NE has had. An inch would be nice.

Hope you don't get dumped though.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on April 06, 2019, 05:31:10 AM
Man you guys are surely having  a wet one up there.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 07, 2019, 03:19:52 PM
We're about double our normal so far in moisture. May be getting an inch of rain in front of 8-12" of snow. We had a spring storm similar last April with the bad blizzard.  First, 4 years very little snow past March, so things have changed and it's gotten colder this year with a majority of months below normal going back to August.  This is a low sunspot activity year....
Sure is nice today near 70F, almost hard to believe this will turn into another snowstorm soon. 
Good thing other than mud the snow won't stick around mid-April.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on April 07, 2019, 04:12:21 PM
Next week is Twin Cities Region Severe Weather Awareness Week.
Thursday is the statewide Severe Weather Test.

We could have 6 or more inches of snow on the ground.

Welcome to Minnesota.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 07, 2019, 09:02:45 PM
Next week is Twin Cities Region Severe Weather Awareness Week.
Thursday is the statewide Severe Weather Test.

We could have 6 or more inches of snow on the ground.

Welcome to Minnesota.

With the moisture collision and cold air, this one could get nasty with severe weather.

This is out of North Platte discussion:
Rain chances Wednesday will increase to likely to categorical
into the afternoon. Colder air will quickly be drawn into the
system for a changeover to snow across the northwest Sandhills in
the afternoon. Elevated instability is shown in the afternoon,
with MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG across southern and eastern areas for
an additional threat for thunderstorms.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 08, 2019, 08:13:12 AM
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Looks to be east of me. Hope we get some rain.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 08, 2019, 11:46:15 AM
It seems odd to see so many complain about lack of rain when so many others are complaining about far too much.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 08, 2019, 12:23:38 PM
It seems odd to see so many complain about lack of rain when so many others are complaining about far too much.

Not complaining as much as worrying. I know what this place can be like when the precip shuts down and we go into drought cycle. We had decent precipitation, 4" above average, this past year, but I would like some more assurance that we aren't going into Gaza Strip mode.  :-)

On another note, my low here was 33 degrees at about 7:15 a.m. today. Four hours later, 11:21 a.m. and the temperature has risen 44 degrees to 77. Good old down slope winds.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 08, 2019, 01:29:52 PM
12-18" snow with 55 mph winds now in the forecast.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 08, 2019, 05:10:33 PM
Keep it, Randy.

We had a 51 degree temperature range today. 33 to 84 F
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 08, 2019, 06:01:24 PM
I'm actually hoping for a big forecast bust. Had enough winter fun this year.

Unfortunately, it gets worse with the afternoon update, now 18-24"  across the Valentine region.  I did notice today people stocking up and getting fresh gas for snowblowers and other snow removal equipment.

 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 08, 2019, 06:20:13 PM
So, what's your latest snowfall on record?  And what's your latest over 6"?

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 08, 2019, 06:41:30 PM
We had a 51 degree temperature range today. 33 to 84 F
Wow. That even impressive for where I live.
BTW, if you wanna sound like the smart kid on the block, it's typically referred to as a 'diurnal spread or variation'. ;)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 08, 2019, 06:49:19 PM
I'm actually hoping for a big forecast bust. Had enough winter fun this year.

Unfortunately, it gets worse with the afternoon update, now 18-24"  across the Valentine region.  I did notice today people stocking up and getting fresh gas for snowblowers and other snow removal equipment.
We down here are progged to have the snow level drop to 6500' with this thing and freezing temps in favored lo-cals. Unheard of this time if year. And that's after upper 90's tomorrow...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 08, 2019, 08:13:18 PM
So, what's your latest snowfall on record?  And what's your latest over 6"?

Good question so looked it up.
May 28, 1947 was the latest measurable snowfall of 4".
May 4th 1929  latest amount over 6".  6.5" fell this date

Greatest 24 hour has occurred several times 18" throughout the history most recently couple times in the 1980's.

Problem with using the 24 hour total some storms extend beyond even last years April blizzard did dumping 11". Blizzard of '49 2-3 foot snow estimates and 20-foot drifts were common for most areas but storm lasted 2 days.
 



We down here are progged to have the snow level drop to 6500' with this thing and freezing temps in favored lo-cals. Unheard of this time if year. And that's after upper 90's tomorrow...

Really, I can remember April snows even in the high desert near Utah border, however.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 08, 2019, 08:25:15 PM
So, if you get over 6, you'll be right on that 'once in a hundred years' thing.


Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 08, 2019, 09:38:27 PM
So, if you get over 6, you'll be right on that 'once in a hundred years' thing.

Any snow above 12" is rare, any month and would most likely be some kind of record in April.  6" not so much so depends on how much.  I gave the latest occurrences was the question all those occurred in May not April. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: bks97 on April 09, 2019, 07:17:45 AM
The storm track appears to have shifted north a little, and here in north central Minnesota we are now in line for 8-12 inches of snow rather than 1-3 inches forecast yesterday.  Much bigger amounts further south and west.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on April 09, 2019, 08:35:01 AM
Blizzard warning for my area tonight. Look at the last line of my forecast for tonight.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 09, 2019, 09:08:48 AM
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OCALA, that might be a record for you, right?  ;)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on April 09, 2019, 10:25:12 AM
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OCALA, that might be a record for you, right?  ;)
Nah, we're on the downslope of the Florida range. We regularly get several feet a night in the spring. :-P
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on April 09, 2019, 03:02:05 PM
Because of snow

The MN Tornado Watch/Warning drill scheduled for Thursday, 4/11 has been canceled due to the winter storm. The backup day of Friday, 4/12 has also been canceled. No backup date is planned at this time.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 09, 2019, 03:23:38 PM
North Platte FCO put  historical perspective out today, and just how rare this upcoming bomb cyclone is. This should answer some of the WeatherHost questions. 

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on April 09, 2019, 07:23:21 PM
anny quit working this afternoon. Again.

What at time to quit. Expecting 50 MPH winds and snow.  ](*,)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 09, 2019, 07:24:20 PM
Goodland, KS showing Red Flag and Blizzard Warnings in immediately adjacent counties.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 09, 2019, 09:07:43 PM
About 60 miles west of us. Glad it isn't on top of us.

I hate to see the daffodils and other spring flowers beat to death by the strong winds and the snow here. They are looking so good right now.

ValentineWeather better have his winter blankets out.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 09, 2019, 09:42:10 PM
I can't recall this many advisories before. Especially with the B word.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: bks97 on April 10, 2019, 06:45:57 AM
The winds coming with the big spring snowstorm will likely create some very big waves on Lake Superior and other problems in the Duluth area.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 10, 2019, 08:35:37 AM
31° and very light freezing rain this morning. Meanwhile, the globally warmed airport has 34°. At least the freezing rain sensor works. Check out the humidity because the temperature is running high. It's a joke an airport sensor can be this bad.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on April 10, 2019, 09:00:33 PM
4 inches so far. May be more later.  A lot of schools canceling for tomorrow.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 11, 2019, 04:53:43 AM
4am: 6-7" using the NOAA snowmelt equivalent chart. Anemometers both stations are frozen solid because of substantial freezing rain prior to snowfall. 
Airport hasn't reported anything since midnight, not even a trace and it's snowing heavily at times so their ASOS can't handle a storm like this either so don't feel so bad about frozen anny's.  ;)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: jas340 on April 11, 2019, 08:49:19 AM
There are 2 Vaisala WXT 510's for sale on ebay. They are asking around $500.00. These are $2500.00 stations. These don't freeze up. They are Professional weather stations. Try low balling the guy if interested. You never know. I got a NIB one for $250.00 16 months ago. The only downside for me is that they are hardwired and are AIO systems. They work with Weather Display software. Do not buy if you are not prepared to do some work to get the system up and running.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 11, 2019, 09:24:14 AM
Thanks for the tip. I've tried to convert to WD software and ran into issues and gave up. Also not interested in an all-in-one.
Darrera made a sonic unit but looks like it may no longer be available.  :-(
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on April 11, 2019, 09:56:04 AM
Western Minnesota is in a Blizzard Warning..... AND has a Severe Weather Warning.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D34GWBLWAAEN1Ij.jpg



There is a tv station here that nominates "The most Minnesotan thing today"  I think this wins.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 12, 2019, 05:39:40 AM
Found this for frozen anemometers at $94.  30' extension should be able to break free.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on April 15, 2019, 01:34:36 PM
Saturday was a wet day for the southeast half of Oklahoma.  Fortunately, it wasn't associated with any severe weather.  Another good chance for rain comes Wednesday.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainapr15-2019.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on April 17, 2019, 04:15:33 PM
Unique change in severe weather forecast for central Oklahoma Wednesday morning. The change is in the way the low is ejecting into the plains will result in nearly guaranteed severe storm development across NW Oklahoma and S & E Oklahoma, leaving a potential hole in the middle of Oklahoma.  Tuesday night, Aaron Tuttle was on Facebook saying he saw weakness in the model data over central Oklahoma and said the change would likely happen and boasted that it did this morning as pictured below.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/tuttle.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 17, 2019, 05:50:20 PM
Unique change in severe weather forecast for central Oklahoma Wednesday morning. The change is in the way the low is ejecting into the plains will result in nearly guaranteed severe storm development across NW Oklahoma and S & E Oklahoma, leaving a potential hole in the middle of Oklahoma.  Tuesday night, Aaron Tuttle was on Facebook saying he saw weakness in the model data over central Oklahoma and said the change would likely happen and boasted that it did this morning as pictured below.

Well the "hole" is for the wind and hail threat, however, the tornado threat encompasses that.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: andyk1 on April 18, 2019, 10:38:09 PM
An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Oh goody.

If you dig a little deeper in NOAA's site you'll see we are at the end of the suns 11 year cycle and returning to milder season. When that will starts I am wondering. Where I am from, we are on track for normal rainfall and are at about 102% of normal. Hopefully a milder summer.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 19, 2019, 06:23:49 PM
Normal average precipitation for county
March: 1.93"
April :  2.32"

Precipitation Received to Date (Reported to CoCoRaHS)
March and April: 1.63"
Below average to date: 2.62"

I am not liking what I see, though it is early to reach any conclusions.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 19, 2019, 06:36:37 PM
Yup, been to 98F and 2% humidity today. Winter has obviously taken a hike. [tup]
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: andyk1 on April 19, 2019, 09:07:43 PM
Where are you seeing this?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 19, 2019, 10:39:46 PM
Where are you seeing this?
Tucson.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: andyk1 on April 20, 2019, 03:03:24 AM
I read California filled up most of it's reservoirs to capacity this past winter alone. First time since 2011. They have had a rough couple last few years.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 20, 2019, 06:35:15 AM
Precip ABOVE normal

Jan 1.10
Feb 6.51
Mar 2.71
Apr 2.27 (So Far)

Total Precip:

Jan  4.78
Feb  10.42
Mar  6.64
Apr  5.14



Don't talk to me about not enough rain!!!!   I'll be grumbling about it by August probably.



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 20, 2019, 08:15:09 AM
Precip ABOVE normal

Jan 1.10
Feb 6.51
Mar 2.71
Apr 2.27 (So Far)

Total Precip:

Jan  4.78
Feb  10.42
Mar  6.64
Apr  5.14



Don't talk to me about not enough rain!!!!   I'll be grumbling about it by August probably.

Feast or famine. I just don't enjoy the famine at all.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: andyk1 on April 20, 2019, 09:08:16 PM
Wow Dr Robert's. I am from Oklahoma and surprised that your below normal. Having watched the weather in the Midwest I remember seeing you in Kansas having a lot more severe weather than we have had South of you. I know Wichita would get the storm systems heading north of us and building in intensity as they went by us. We are also below normal in severe weather such as Tornado's. We have had some but nowhere as severe as other parts of the country.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 21, 2019, 09:30:09 PM
 Well, that was stimulating. A bit of a surprise severe thunderstorm. Gust 61 mph on the VP2 and blowing dust. Visibility 1/8 mile for bit. Nasty stuff.

Not much rain, maybe a few hundredths, but thankfully no hail.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 26, 2019, 05:55:07 PM
99F so far today and just turned on the a/c for the first time this year. Don't recall waiting this late before.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 27, 2019, 07:05:28 AM
It's late April, almost May and they're still using the 'S' word for too many places:

" Late season accumulating snow is expected on the northern edge of the precipitation with several inches of
snow likely from southern Minnesota to near the greater Chicago area, with winter storm warnings in effect for parts of these areas.  In the warm sector of this low, scattered showers and storms are likely across parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Texas, with some severe storms possible.

Towards Saturday night and Sunday, a second storm system organizes over the Rockies and western High Plains in response to a closed upper level low.  This will likely result in heavy mountain snow across western Montana and extending eastward across parts of North Dakota"



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Jasiu on April 27, 2019, 08:17:28 AM
Hey everyone, a favor to ask...

These seasonal threads are full of reports of heat, snow, severe weather, etc. but for many of them, I'm not sure where you are.

If you don't mind, and haven't done so already, would you consider going into your profile (top of page, Profile -> Forum Profile) and fill in the "Location" field?

Thanks!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on April 29, 2019, 02:46:05 PM
April is about done. These are my highs and lows for Phillips County, KS

Max Temperature 89 F  2 dates
Min  Temperature 20 F

Precipitation    .22" (CoCoRaHS)
Normal Avrg  2.32"

Max Wind Gust  61 mph

Max Pressure 30.27"
Min Pressure  29.22"
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Jasiu on April 29, 2019, 05:42:05 PM
Boston has set a new record for number of days with precipitation in a month - 20. Not just for April, but for any month since record keeping started.

And we ain't done with it yet.

Overall, the amounts haven't been spectacular, but we're above average and tree pollen allergy sufferers are getting a bit of a break.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 29, 2019, 06:51:58 PM
Boston has set a new record for number of days with precipitation in a month - 20. Not just for April, but for any month since record keeping started.

Seems odd for a coastal area.  I'm a long ways inland and I've had a few stretches of 30 days or longer, a couple of 40 day stretches with only one or two missing.






Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Jasiu on April 29, 2019, 07:12:03 PM
'Tis true though.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on April 30, 2019, 03:44:41 PM
Just saw some really cool footage of a small tornado in OK taken by a drone on TWC. Great vantage point! I'm sure they'll show it again.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: AWL on April 30, 2019, 05:00:58 PM
Five tornado warning visible on the Norman radar as I type this ](*,) Still clear across Southern Oklahoma at least for now.

Doug
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on April 30, 2019, 10:32:40 PM
Stillwater was blessed to be spared from the worst effects of Tuesday's storms.  The southeast part of my county in Cushing had a minor tornado with two companies getting  damage.  The rainfall here, so far, hasn't been super generous but has been so for Tulsa, where much of that city has had 2 to 5+ inches of rain.  Tonight, as I write this, I thought the rain was over for Stillwater, but new rain clouds with thunder have formed overhead.

Rainfall amounts in Oklahoma, so far.
(https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on May 01, 2019, 06:26:17 PM
Some tropical moisture making its way up the Florida peninsula the next 2 days. Nothing major but hurricane season is just a month away.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 01, 2019, 09:00:14 PM
Interesting side note in bold.

Quote
April 2019 Climate Review: Temperatures averaged above normal by around 1 to 2 degrees. Temperatures reached 80 degrees 7 times in Paducah and 4 times in Evansville. The last freeze of the season occurred on April 15th in several locations, including in Paducah. This was around a week or so later than usual. However, other locations, like Evansville observed their last freeze on April 1st.

The month was wetter than normal across much of the region. Amounts of 5 to 6 inches were common, along with some locally higher amounts. The corridor that experienced the wettest conditions, relative to normal, were across portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana.

The lack of severe thunderstorms was the big story line for the month. Typically the peak of our severe weather season begins in April. However, that wasn’t the case this year. Our office only issued 2 severe thunderstorm warnings the entire month. For comparison, we had never issued fewer than 10 in any April since 1995, which was the year our office spun up.




Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 02, 2019, 06:26:14 AM
Tied short station history on number freeze days in a season 25° this morning.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 02, 2019, 08:00:04 AM
Been a long winter, hasn't it? Hope it is the last freeze for you.

My station low this morning was 31. Ice on my CoCoRaHS gauge and on the grass.
I am in a low elevation area, so town and official is almost always higher.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 02, 2019, 08:24:59 AM
Yes, I'm done with it.
I do enjoy the weather here but after a long winter, the thought of warmth is very inviting.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 06, 2019, 08:15:07 PM
This astonishing pattern of weather this year for the W/SW continues as another trough digs down the coast. This looks more like late winter than approaching mid May. We here have a decent shot of rain next weekend, unheard of this time of year as May is our driest month. I'm wondering if it's getting to the point that if a pattern change to the "norm" doesn't start soon, our monsoon may suffer, or at least have a very late start.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 06, 2019, 10:27:18 PM
Mid May through the end of June are normally wet period but these temperatures are still low for this time of year.  Still wearing the jacket with a stretch of mid 40's for highs. Down to 23°F a couple of days ago.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 07, 2019, 07:10:13 AM
This astonishing pattern of weather this year for the W/SW continues as another trough digs down the coast. This looks more like late winter than approaching mid May. We here have a decent shot of rain next weekend, unheard of this time of year as May is our driest month.

If you believe the CPC Crystal Ball graphs, they show cool-ish and damp into June on the One Month:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 08, 2019, 06:03:45 PM
Just saw where a couple of models are showing that the Houston area will be inundated with rain for at least the next 6 days, they may very well go under again.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 08, 2019, 06:32:24 PM
"The Weather Prediction Center has upgraded to a moderate risk for excessive rainfall for both Day 2 (Thurs AM into Fri AM) and Day 3 (Fri AM into Sat AM). Therefore, forecasted rainfall totals estimate about 5-8 inches widespread, with isolated 9-12 inches possible Thursday through early Sunday. "

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 08, 2019, 06:34:47 PM
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
717 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

LOCATION                     AMOUNT    TIME/DATE       LAT/LON 

...FORT BEND COUNTY...
SUGAR LAND                   10.28 IN  0606 AM 05/08   29.54N/95.67W       
RICHMOND                     9.38 IN   0602 AM 05/08   29.56N/95.74W       
BUFFALO BAYOU                8.21 IN   0530 AM 05/08   29.72N/95.77W       
ROSENBERG                    7.51 IN   0606 AM 05/08   29.52N/95.81W       
FIRST COLONY                 6.91 IN   0609 AM 05/08   29.58N/95.60W   

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201905081217-KHGX-NOUS44-PNSHGX

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: bks97 on May 08, 2019, 07:07:58 PM
Here, a spring storm passing through has a swath of winter in it.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on May 08, 2019, 08:35:38 PM
Central Minnesota
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6FQmASXsAAORZq.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on May 09, 2019, 08:15:24 AM
Duluth is reporting 8.3 inches. Still snowing mildly there.

Happy May 9.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 09, 2019, 01:34:27 PM
Never thought I would say this but they can keep it.
Freeze warning up here tonight.  Many farmers have or are planting but doubt seedlings are up yet its been so cool.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 09, 2019, 08:53:32 PM
This long wave trough is nuts...what 3500 miles wide and digging into Mexico...and with all the short waves embedded within? Crazy stuff with an unheard of good shot at rain this weekend for us down here.
This is not May.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 10, 2019, 07:36:36 AM
Temperature below freezing for over 5 hours. Guess that qualifies as a hard freeze. 28 F now.

I hope neighbors to the north are finally done with this winter weather.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 10, 2019, 10:35:09 AM
Just maybe this is the last one.  [tup]  One 36° on Sunday morning always has potential.  :sad:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 10, 2019, 01:48:23 PM
Mowing the weeds at 56 F felt positively warm. Maybe it won't get warmer than 70 this summer???
 :-)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: bks97 on May 10, 2019, 03:34:11 PM
Mowing the weeds at 56 F felt positively warm. Maybe it won't get warmer than 70 this summer???
 :-)

It’s 56 and mostly sunny here, too, this afternoon. It does feel pretty good.  Tomorrow is Minnesota’s annual fishing opener when about 500,000 anglers will take to the lakes and streams to fish for walleye, northern pike and other species.   The ice is out of the lakes and temperatures for much of the state should be in the low to mid 60s, so it looks to be a good day to cast a hook in the water.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on May 10, 2019, 04:50:24 PM
Feel sorry for you guys out there with that lingering cold weather.
But, that's why I'm down here. Can't handle that cold anymore.
Hopefully it warms up soon and stays that way. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 11, 2019, 04:26:47 AM
Been a long winter, hasn't it? Hope it is the last freeze for you.

My station low this morning was 31. Ice on my CoCoRaHS gauge and on the grass.
I am in a low elevation area, so town and official is almost always higher.

Oklahoma City TV weatherman, Mike Morgan  said Oklahoma City has had 10 straight months of below normal temperatures.  Global Warming skeptics will surely love that.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 11, 2019, 05:15:39 AM
Beautiful pic of the soon-to-be cut low spinning off the west coast as the jet carves it off into the mid-upper plains.

Love this stuff, but this is not May.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 11, 2019, 08:25:53 AM
Just noticed on the Valentine Police website.  Check out the wheels grass on one side snow on the other.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 11, 2019, 03:16:26 PM
 :lol: That's hilarious! (unless you're doing it) I've never seen the snow mowed before.... #-o
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 11, 2019, 03:43:44 PM
Last year they made a big fuss about the cool April and hot May (Winter >>  Summer, skip Spring).  This year both months so far are near normal, but wet.  Thing is, we've had one day in the 80s and the next day in the 60s a few times.  The odd swings are still there, but they make the month look 'normal'.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 12, 2019, 04:11:00 PM
Nice T-storms yesterday, airport picked up 1.08" making it officially the wettest day in May in recorded history (our average is 0.23" for the month). More knocking on the door now too.
Did I mention this is not May?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on May 12, 2019, 04:36:13 PM
Just noticed on the Valentine Police website.  Check out the wheels grass on one side snow on the other.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
I haven't lived up north in a while but I can't ever remember cutting the grass with snow on it.
Is this something new or is this guy just having some fun.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 12, 2019, 05:37:30 PM
Did I mention this is not May?

CPC 8-14 day says more cool and damp in store for much of the SW.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 12, 2019, 05:58:22 PM
Did I mention this is not May?

CPC 8-14 day says more cool and damp in store for much of the SW.
Yep, another trough coming. Been here thirty years, never seen anything like it. As I stated earlier, I'm really wondering if this will start effecting the setup for the monsoon. At this rate, won't need it... :!:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 12, 2019, 08:06:34 PM
Just noticed on the Valentine Police website.  Check out the wheels grass on one side snow on the other.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
I haven't lived up north in a while but I can't ever remember cutting the grass with snow on it.
Is this something new or is this guy just having some fun.

I don't know about that one. Seems a little strange unless the guy had a lawn service and scheduling problems.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 13, 2019, 09:03:02 AM
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

From HSI on Saturday morning. Thought this was worth posting. Where will it set up?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 13, 2019, 01:06:53 PM
For NC Nebraska, last week of May and most of June is generally very wet period. 5-6" rainfall. Last June was exception very dry.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 13, 2019, 09:10:10 PM
Hail in Stillwater Tuesday evening from pea to marble size and a few a bit bigger.  Fortunately, the hail didn't get bigger.  The storm formed from overhead to the west side of the county and moved SE.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/hailinstillwater.JPG)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 14, 2019, 06:19:27 AM
41 this morning which looks like it should be a new record low.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 14, 2019, 08:04:44 AM
Dropped one more briefly:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 AM CST TUE MAY 14 2019

...RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH KY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY THIS
MORNING...MAY 14TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 43 SET IN 2016 AND
PREVIOUS YEARS.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 15, 2019, 02:13:50 PM
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4 (https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4)

(https://d1fofpanmqww7d.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/toroutlook.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 16, 2019, 01:24:02 AM
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4 (https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4)
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 16, 2019, 03:50:42 AM
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4 (https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4)
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.

This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 16, 2019, 04:17:24 AM
ENH already up for Friday (TX and NE) and Saturday (TX).

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 16, 2019, 04:23:59 AM
This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.

Bound to be some confliction commotion in there somewhere:

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]


.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 16, 2019, 02:19:19 PM
Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4 (https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4)
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.

This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.
In case you haven't read it, from SPC for tomorrow. The first sentence gets your attention.


   ...Central Plains region...

   Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of
   NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.
   However, primary uncertainty this forecast will be how far south the
   cold front advances and where it will be during peak heating, which
   will be critical in determining corridor of greatest severe threat.
   The front should stall somewhere across central or south central NE
   before possibly retreating slowly north as a warm front. Dewpoints
   generally in the low 60s F should reside in the warm sector beneath
   very steep (7.5-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates). This setup will
   favor strong instability with MLCAPE from 2500-3000 J/kg as the
   boundary layer warms. However, given warm air at the base of the
   elevated mixed layer, the warm sector will likely remained capped
   through at least the first half of the day. Elevated storms will
   probably be ongoing north of the front early with some threat for
   hail. Initial surface-based storm development may occur by mid-late
   afternoon near triple point from northeast CO into southwest NE at
   intersection of surface low/front and dryline where convergence and
   deep mixing, as well as arrival of deeper forcing for ascent within
   upper jet exit region should weaken the cap. These storms should
   intensify as they develop northeast through the very unstable warm
   sector along and just south of the front where 40-50 kt effective
   bulk shear will favor supercells with very large hail. Tornado
   threat should be maximized from late afternoon through early evening
   as the low-level jet strengthens, contributing to increasing
   hodographs size with 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. More
   isolated supercells may develop southward through western KS.

Eye to the sky, sir.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 16, 2019, 02:21:30 PM
Wow, 7.89" of rain projected for Stillwater between Friday and Tuesday.  I'll believe the hype when I see it measured in my rain gauge.  Later,  I'll compare it to the Oklahoma Mesonet map for actual amounts.  After a couple of dry days, the ground is kinda squishy from 4.69" for May, so far.  So hopefully, it won't mostly come by a heavy downpour or two.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainmapmay182019.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 17, 2019, 06:30:10 PM
Randy, hope you're watching the radar, that supercell SW of the main bang is crazy spinning like a top and making a bee-line for you. :!:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LNX-N0Q-1-24
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 17, 2019, 07:29:24 PM
I see the atmosphere is exploding all around. Surface temps are low up here mid 50's vs 120 miles south near 70. Wondering if that doesn't limit the bigger storms? May not matter these aren't temperature enhanced like a summer type storm.  It's been cool all day with mist and fog.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 17, 2019, 07:36:37 PM
Forget the temp. The rotating storm WSW of the radar has a hellofa hail core, and wouldn't surprise me one bit to become tornadic. Not trying to be over dramatic , but you may want to consider cover very shortly.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 17, 2019, 07:45:09 PM
Forget the temp. The rotating storm WSW of the radar has a hellofa hail core, and wouldn't surprise me one bit to become tornadic. Not trying to be over dramatic , but you may want to consider cover very shortly.

Thanks for the warning those bad boys are still a ways off from me. 60 miles or so. To the SE Ainsworth had 1.75" hail in an earlier storm.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 17, 2019, 07:50:26 PM
That should put it on your doorstep in about 1 hour.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 17, 2019, 07:55:31 PM
That should put it on your doorstep in about 1 hour.

Just went under a severe TS watch.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 17, 2019, 08:03:36 PM
That should put it on your doorstep in about 1 hour.

Just went under a severe TS watch.
No sir, not watch, warning.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 17, 2019, 08:28:00 PM
Maybe for the county, but not the city.   Yet.



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.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 17, 2019, 08:45:56 PM
Maybe for the county, but not the city.   Yet.
Yes, I'm aware. He's been under a watch for hours.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 17, 2019, 09:46:59 PM
Hook echo south of Broken Bow. I heard North Platte canceled all tv shows and is covering the storms live. We don't get NP channels up here.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 17, 2019, 09:50:32 PM
GR3 radar several tornado reports same area.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 18, 2019, 11:15:56 AM
Randy, miss it all?

We had a severe t storm warning here, but only .01" and the storm was not severe.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 18, 2019, 12:22:43 PM
We missed most here also.     .39 west side and .42 eastside
At least 2 different tornados McCook and Broken Bow all well south of us.
 
Now talking about snow in the forecast for Monday... ](*,)
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 18, 2019, 12:25:12 PM
Well, at 35 and 47, any 'snow' won't amount to much.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on May 18, 2019, 12:42:05 PM
Wouldn't it be nice if we could cross off the forecast and make it go away.

 I always think that That Minneapolis gets bipolar weather. But Valentine you get some crazy swings
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 18, 2019, 02:18:42 PM
Well, speaking of Monday...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: gwwilk on May 18, 2019, 02:40:32 PM
The first week in June has historically been the most tornadically destructive time in my neck of the woods, according to this SPC perspective (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=sigTorn) based on 1982-2011 data (you can step through the weeks using the buttons on the upper right.)  Central Oklahoma looks to be most at risk right now...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 19, 2019, 08:44:30 PM
The first week in June has historically been the most tornadically destructive time in my neck of the woods, according to this SPC perspective (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=sigTorn) based on 1982-2011 data (you can step through the weeks using the buttons on the upper right.)  Central Oklahoma looks to be most at risk right now...

Oklahoma City metro schools are closed Monday due to the high threat of severe weather, including tornadoes.  Stillwater schools will be closed, too.  Gee, when I was a kid I don't recall school closed due to the fear it looked like a real bad weather day for thunderstorms.  But for now better safe than sorry.  Hopefully, storms won't get too bad on Monday.
https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-regional/tornado-risk-significant-in-central-western-oklahoma-monday-tulsa-under/article_548aa5f4-3d4e-58ae-be87-46ac5b7b403e.html?fbclid=IwAR1t8WyYtSX4WtEHzD3l59tQ9YJWUw5ooZiWgF-yLF9ZCm5wm7xtOOv3bbI (https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-regional/tornado-risk-significant-in-central-western-oklahoma-monday-tulsa-under/article_548aa5f4-3d4e-58ae-be87-46ac5b7b403e.html?fbclid=IwAR1t8WyYtSX4WtEHzD3l59tQ9YJWUw5ooZiWgF-yLF9ZCm5wm7xtOOv3bbI)

Here is snapshot from NAM showing the initial dry line development in the afternoon:

(https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019051918/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_35.png)

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/tulsaworld.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/5/93/593bdc12-9a8c-5c42-a703-43fd5b9b5cb7/5ce1bb0eb5537.image.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 19, 2019, 09:23:00 PM
I should probably start another thread here, but if you tornado alley folks wouldn't mind sharing, who here has a storm shelter? After the 1999 EF5 Bridge Creek, OK (where he lived) tornado missed my dad's house by just over a mile, he had an in-ground shelter dug into the yard. It was impressive.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 19, 2019, 09:33:14 PM
Had one when we lived in town. Not a place I liked visit and only had to twice in 15 years.

Have a basement now.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 19, 2019, 11:39:07 PM
LOL, Stillwater is still in the running to get the most rain in Oklahoma by late Tuesday.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainmay21.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 20, 2019, 03:15:13 AM
Hot off the press....this is some of the strongest language I've seen in recent memory.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: zackdog on May 20, 2019, 10:42:40 AM
Hot off the press....this is some of the strongest language I've seen in recent memory.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I don't like this forecast, but definitely prefer it to that one.

Mark [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 20, 2019, 12:18:20 PM
I should probably start another thread here, but if you tornado alley folks wouldn't mind sharing, who here has a storm shelter? After the 1999 EF5 Bridge Creek, OK (where he lived) tornado missed my dad's house by just over a mile, he had an in-ground shelter dug into the yard. It was impressive.

Had one when we lived in town. Not a place I liked visit and only had to twice in 15 years.
Have a basement now.

No shelter at all where I'm at now. The new place hopefully closing on soon is one of those split level entries as you come in 5 steps down or up, the design was popular in 70s-80s for square footage bang for the buck, guess its better than nothing. There is a closet storage area under the stairwell. 
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 20, 2019, 07:49:16 PM
Nice looking place, Randy. In town?

How's the weather instrument move going?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 20, 2019, 08:08:03 PM
Too close to the street and it looks like there's another house within a half mile.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 20, 2019, 09:12:43 PM
Nice looking place, Randy. In town?

How's the weather instrument move going?

Thanks, most of the station is moved still working on the communication. Rained all day today but did make some progress. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 21, 2019, 11:55:36 AM
Another Negative-tilt trough. Thankfully not cold enough to be snow but the rain is relentless. Radar live: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/LNX_loop.gif
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 21, 2019, 04:44:26 PM
We actually picked up some nice precip with this one, which was not true of the past 3. Needed the precipitation here unlike many/most surrounding areas.

I see our pressure has just taken an upward trend. Now 29.27"
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 21, 2019, 05:55:17 PM
Intensity has picked up here. Right at 2.5" (2 day) storm total with no sign of stopping yet.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on May 21, 2019, 08:11:25 PM
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Picture posted by NWS HSI taken by a Phillips County resident.
A few miles from me, never saw it but then we are down in a low area.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 21, 2019, 08:17:55 PM
That's postcard stuff. Very nice.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 21, 2019, 08:31:55 PM
Nice!  [tup]
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 22, 2019, 04:25:08 AM
Flood in Stillwater on Tuesday after 4 to 7+ in. of rain in the area on ground already saturated.  Flooding on Cimarron River 12 miles to the south hampered drainage and caused water from Stillwater Creek to back up.  Report of water going 3 ft. over the spillway at Blackwell Lake 8 miles to the west added to the situation.  Spillway water goes directly into Stillwater Creek.

W. 12th St. underwater and closed.  This is what my friend faced Tuesday morning on the way to work. She detoured.  Her home was several blocks from the flooding.  I later kidded her by saying it never floods on my side of town because we send all the water your way.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC02303.jpg)

The flooding as seen from the other side of W. 12th. Water went a block to the left and got into some houses.  Much of the area shown along 12th was turned into park land after previous floods.  At least several other scenes like this on streets near Stillwater Creek.   Not since 2007 during which time it rained over 60 inches has there been flooding like this:
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC02311.jpg)

11th and Knoblock
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/11thknoblock.jpg)

Water shown almost up to Lakeview Ave. bridge across Boomer Lake.   Earlier, the water was up to the outer lanes, which were closed.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC00305.jpg)

Water over the spillway at Boomer Lake.  Boomer Creek had no trouble handling the water.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC00301.jpg)

View of spillway from top of Boomer Lake Dam.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/spillwayview.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 22, 2019, 01:52:10 PM
Oh Frack!!!!

Got roof work to do, metal over shingles.  Forecast for morning, 5AM to Noon is basically 70-75 degree air and 70 degree dewpoint.  Next day also.  And the next.

How many pounds will I sweat off each day trying not to pass out and fall off the roof?

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 22, 2019, 08:26:31 PM
Floodgates at Keystone Dam, located just west of Tulsa, have opened, releasing amounts of water seldom seen before. The dam holds back water from Arkansas and Cimarron Rivers.   Numerous photos here of flooding along the Arkansas River in the Tulsa area here.  A riverside casino has closed:    https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-regional/gallery-aerial-views-of-flooding-along-the-arkansas-river-and/collection_52f1ad79-a25f-5158-b2a6-206460862c40.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share&fbclid=IwAR2eFVkA-f08-T6Lpjor8FgRBcnKCU6_YRB0s8tB_xFzbFhNW965xHRXPuE#1 (https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/state-and-regional/gallery-aerial-views-of-flooding-along-the-arkansas-river-and/collection_52f1ad79-a25f-5158-b2a6-206460862c40.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share&fbclid=IwAR2eFVkA-f08-T6Lpjor8FgRBcnKCU6_YRB0s8tB_xFzbFhNW965xHRXPuE#1) 

There is a tornado watch here until 10pm.  Storms have formed with none headed this way, so far, fortunately.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: AWL on May 23, 2019, 06:53:38 AM
Floodgates at Keystone Dam, located just west of Tulsa, have opened, releasing amounts of water seldom seen before.

Had a family reunion at Keystone a couple of years ago so familiar with the area. Showed the wife the pictures as she is originally from the Tulsa area. Impressive to say the least. Looks as if a lot of rain fell in the area again last night.

Doug
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 23, 2019, 01:03:52 PM
82 air, 72 dewpoint, 72 humidity, 87 heat index

On the roof laying metal, start feeling cold and a bit wobbly.


Time to get the ['ELL off the roof.

It'll still be there tomorrow.  Got ground stuff I can do today like mowing which is just riding around for a while.

.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 23, 2019, 02:45:09 PM
Floodgates at Keystone Dam, located just west of Tulsa, have opened, releasing amounts of water seldom seen before.

Had a family reunion at Keystone a couple of years ago so familiar with the area. Showed the wife the pictures as she is originally from the Tulsa area. Impressive to say the least. Looks as if a lot of rain fell in the area again last night.

Doug

Rural northwest Stillwater got hard hit again from one with one of the largest rains amounts in the area last night with around 1.5".  It's had over 16" of rain, so far, for May, compared to 10.73" for my location.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on May 23, 2019, 03:11:18 PM
Jefferson, Mo is a mess
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 23, 2019, 04:24:01 PM
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...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 23, 2019, 11:14:17 PM
Two runaway barges loaded with fertilizer strike dam on the Arkansas River and sink with video. https://kfor.com/2019/05/23/watch-two-barges-sink-after-hitting-dam-at-webbers-falls/ (https://kfor.com/2019/05/23/watch-two-barges-sink-after-hitting-dam-at-webbers-falls/)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 25, 2019, 04:52:19 AM
They say you'll know 'obscene' when you see it.  I'd say 75 degrees at 3AM in May fits the description.  I don't care for it in July or August, but it's just nuts in May.



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on May 25, 2019, 06:36:03 AM
Two runaway barges loaded with fertilizer strike dam on the Arkansas River and sink with video. https://kfor.com/2019/05/23/watch-two-barges-sink-after-hitting-dam-at-webbers-falls/ (https://kfor.com/2019/05/23/watch-two-barges-sink-after-hitting-dam-at-webbers-falls/)
Luckily it didn't look like the dam was compromised.
That's a whole lot of fertilizer going where it shouldn't be. :-(
Really no excuse for this happening. With the strong current extra mooring should have been applied to prevent this.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 25, 2019, 03:00:46 PM
91 yesterday, first one of the year.  I'm sure not the last.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 26, 2019, 03:28:10 PM
91 yesterday, first one of the year.  I'm sure not the last.
In Stillwater we can't get a stretch of sunny weather long enough for a buildup to temps in the 90s for the first time this spring.

Sat. night in El Reno,  a suburb in the western part of the OKC metro, a EF3 tornado hit a mobile home park and a hotel.  2 people were killed with over two dozen hurt.

https://www.news9.com/story/40535491/el-reno-is-a-resilient-community-mayor-gives-update-after-deadly-tornado (https://www.news9.com/story/40535491/el-reno-is-a-resilient-community-mayor-gives-update-after-deadly-tornado)

In Stillwater, the first night with over an inch of rain didn't produce more street flooding after it receded but the 2nd night in a row with over another inch did, sending Stillwater Creek out of its banks again.  So 6 or so stretches of streets are closed in the same areas.

Stillwater Emergency Operations Director went on a tour for over an hour of the renewed flooding Sunday morning.  An interesting part he encounters paper boy and storm chaser at 36:00.
https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/449823452486384/?comment_id=2217041111719733&reply_comment_id=2217358591687985&notif_id=1558856841747888&notif_t=group_comment_mention (https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/449823452486384/?comment_id=2217041111719733&reply_comment_id=2217358591687985&notif_id=1558856841747888&notif_t=group_comment_mention)

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 27, 2019, 02:29:49 PM
Statement from the Stillwater Emergency Management Agency:

Lots and lots to talk about.

First the roads. We continue to open roads as we can and keep the map updated: Stillwater.org/road-closing.

Second, the rainfall. We have received over 19+” of rainfall in the month of May. This puts us between a 100 year & a 200 year flooding event. (Graphic attached)

The river crested earlier than expected and this will improve our situation, but it will still take quite a while to recover.

Upcoming weather: we are on the edge of “marginal risk” tonight (5/27), but not in it. We could see some rain from storms that are no longer severe move through, but little to no additional accumulations tonight.

Tomorrow’s weather (5/28) is a different story. We are in an “enhanced risk” tomorrow for tornados, 60-80mph winds, and baseball size hail. And of course additional rain/flooding issues.

We will be monitoring remotely today and working with city staff to stay up to date on issues, but we have got to take some time off to recover. As always, we will update as needed. ~SEMA

(https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/61382891_2152207804827898_4817375077429411840_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=80f9b3ca6819a45f9ea096825e0c1708&oe=5D93C654)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 27, 2019, 09:34:30 PM
Supercells poping SW Nebraska this evening. This is near Imperial.
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Stay south don't want that mess.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 27, 2019, 09:51:09 PM
Phenomenal. I never grow tired of seeing pics/movies of an entire thunderstorm spin like a top. 8-)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 27, 2019, 10:22:30 PM
Full view of mothership near Imperial.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on May 27, 2019, 11:00:12 PM
On radar still hasn't reached imperial but impressive pink hail signature. This is storm J1 at top.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 27, 2019, 11:29:34 PM
Not just the hail, that's a nice bowing segment in front of the core, nasty straight line winds.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LNX-N0Q-1-24
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on May 27, 2019, 11:36:54 PM
While were at it, now look at the hook at the base...surely tornado warned on.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on May 28, 2019, 12:33:04 PM
Start well this year with the summer season...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on May 29, 2019, 11:05:59 PM
Oh joy, power out.  Been a while, but not near long enough.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on May 30, 2019, 11:35:25 PM
Uh, oh, Stillwater to get the most rain again in Oklahoma by next Friday.   It's not so funny the 2nd time around.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC00317.JPG)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DoctorKnow on June 01, 2019, 10:08:02 AM
The GFS is showing a Tropical Storm grazing the Carolina's on the 13th. Then it shows a Hurricane hitting the northeast.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 03, 2019, 04:47:15 PM
Oh Joy!

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Color me ....  annoyed.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 03, 2019, 05:20:23 PM
"May 2019 Climate Review: The main headline for the month was the excessively wet conditions observed over a large majority of the region. Widespread rainfall amounts of 5 to 9 inches were observed across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and much of western Kentucky, with some locations picking up 10 to 12 inches. With 11.09” falling in Paducah, it became the wettest May on record for the city. Cape Girardeau checked in as the 5th wettest May there. There was a very sharp cutoff to the heavy rainfall amounts across western Kentucky though, with drier than normal conditions observed in much of Calloway, Trigg, Christian, and Todd Counties. Some of this area only received a little over 2 inches of rain for the month.

Temperatures were above normal by around 2 to 3 degrees. Low temperatures were particularly warmer than normal and this was largely due to increased cloud cover and wetter conditions across the region helping to keep overnight lows up.

While we did have some severe thunderstorms during the month, overall it was yet another month with below normal severe thunderstorm coverage across the region. The two most notable severe weather events occurred on May 21 and May 29."

Anybody else seeing that?  Lots of rain, some storms, but not as many as usual.

(I'm quite OK with a lack of severe weather.)

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on June 03, 2019, 11:30:13 PM
Oklahoma definitely had more tornadoes than normal for May, but at least for the most part they did a good job of staying out of small towns and big cities.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 06, 2019, 02:30:19 PM
Just read from the local WFO that the last three weeks have been the coolest in 102 years, we haven't even hit 100F yet either. Not surprising as seemingly the W/SW has been under a trough since last November. Well, that's all coming to a screeching halt as we're progged for 108F next Wed., and surely more to follow. June's here... 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 06, 2019, 05:15:00 PM
CPC 6-10 day is showing a big blue bullseye over Missery and extending from Alpena to Austin and Minneapolis to Montgomery.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 09, 2019, 12:37:01 PM
We've been in 'too much rain' for close to six months now, since October or so and I don't really see any end to it in any of the crystal ball stuff out there.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 10, 2019, 12:10:53 AM
We haven't had much of anything in Northern Minnesota over the last few months. No severe weather to speak of and not much rainfall or any other significant weather since this god awful winter we got over.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on June 10, 2019, 04:24:17 PM
Wow, Oklahoma for rain in the past 365 days.  Tropical rain forest-type annual precipitation is 80" annually.
(http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.8760hr.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 10, 2019, 05:56:42 PM
A short breath of fresher air ...

"Temperatures will average below normal with highs mostly in the 70s
and lows in the 50s the next couple of days. Can`t even rule out
a few localized upper 40s tonight in southern Illinois, given the
dry air and light winds overnight. Unseasonably low humidity
levels will be felt with dew points in the upper 40s and 50s
through the short term and beyond. This is somewhat rare to get a
prolonged stretch of comfortable air like this in the middle of
June. Better enjoy it while it lasts!"


Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 10, 2019, 08:36:47 PM
Wow, Oklahoma for rain in the past 365 days.  Tropical rain forest-type annual precipitation is 80" annually.
(http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.8760hr.png)

That's pretty insane, hope everything is good down there after all that flooding you guys experienced last month.


Frost possible, I thought it was June?!

"A trough will dig into the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday into
early Thursday, while a weak high nudges in from the Northern
Plains. At the surface a cold front will slide eastward through
eastern Minnesota gradually into the Central Great Lakes. This will
gradually bring showers and thunderstorms to an end from west to
east. The high will establish itself Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The combination of clear skies and relatively light winds
will result in areas of frost across parts of northeast Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin."
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 11, 2019, 06:39:46 AM
Wow, Oklahoma for rain in the past 365 days.  Tropical rain forest-type annual precipitation is 80" annually.

PAH is showing 70" officially for the last 12 months.

Annual Normal is 49".

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 11, 2019, 07:35:11 PM
"On the back side of the front
temperatures should remain on the cool side, with high only in the
60s for most locations. This will set us up for a rather chilly
night Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as a ridge of high
pressure slides southeast across the area overnight and allows
light winds and clear skies to set us up for a decent radiational
cooling night. I have some concerns for frost along Iron Range and
areas north of there, and we will have to re-evaluate that again
tomorrow before deciding on whether we need a Frost Advisory for
tomorrow night or not.
"
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 12, 2019, 12:19:51 PM
Today marks the 125th consecutive day that the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois has been above flood stage. Moderate flooding is occurring now with a crest around 49 feet forecast on Thursday. Flooding will continue until further notice.

Previous record was 97 days in 1973.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 12, 2019, 06:17:18 PM
Even drier air will
filter into the region, with dew points Thursday into Thursday
night dropping into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Thursday
night lows will again be very cool.  Readings in the 49 to 54
degree range will be around 10 degrees below seasonal normals.


That would be Thursday night/Friday morning.  Record Low for 6/14 is 51, set in 1985.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 12, 2019, 06:39:36 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/HUuKAIX.png)

Frost Advisory for my area, 3AM to 7AM.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 13, 2019, 06:27:14 PM
Well, I guess summer finally made it here, 108F yesterday and 111F today. Now we wait for the monsoon. \:D/
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 13, 2019, 06:59:16 PM
Well, I guess summer finally made it here, 108F yesterday and 111F today. Now we wait for the monsoon. \:D/

You live in the southwest?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 13, 2019, 07:06:01 PM
Tucson.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 13, 2019, 07:28:34 PM
Tucson.

Cool, you guys can keep that heat, anything above 80 is too much!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 13, 2019, 07:35:42 PM
Tucson.

Cool, you guys can keep that heat, anything above 80 is too much!
As I've said here more than once, I can seek shade from the sun, you can't seek shade from the humidity. ;)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 13, 2019, 07:47:01 PM
CPC saying below normal temperatures and above average precipitation for my area.

(https://i.imgur.com/RGMvIpb.gif)

(https://i.imgur.com/osIcfuw.gif)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on June 13, 2019, 08:20:06 PM
Gorgeous few days here. AC is off. Humidity is low. Hard to believe this is summer. But not complaining.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 14, 2019, 01:24:18 PM
Like, total coolness, man!!

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 14, 2019, 05:28:06 PM
Thunderstorms for my area tonight then a big cooldown tomorrow with temps in the 60s and rain all day.

(https://i.imgur.com/8ZD8W3e.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on June 15, 2019, 08:03:21 PM
FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF OKLAHOMA

Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Washita

Details:
...Significant Flooding Possible Tonight...
.Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region this
evening and overnight, especially across southwest into central
Oklahoma. Due to recent rainfall, a potentially significant and
life threatening flooding event may occur, especially across
central Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City Metropolitan area.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for a large part of
Oklahoma and all of western north Texas. In Texas, this watch
includes Quanah, Crowell, Vernon, Seymour, and Wichita Falls. In
Oklahoma, it includes Altus, Lawton, Ardmore, Elk City, Clinton
and Weatherford, Enid, the Oklahoma City Metro, Ponca City,
Stillwater, Shawnee, Seminole, and Ada.
* Through early Sunday morning.
* Extremely heavy rainfall associated with widespread
thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
* Due to saturated soils and bankfull rivers, the heavy rain that
is expected tonight could lead to significant and life
threatening flooding and flash flooding, especially across
central portions of Oklahoma.
* Avoid areas that normally flood during heavy rain and do not
drive into areas where water covers the road. Flooding is very
hard to see at night, so use extreme caution if you are
traveling.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 16, 2019, 02:18:18 AM
Yikes not more flooding for you guys!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on June 16, 2019, 03:44:13 AM
Yikes not more flooding for you guys!

Tonight's storms arrived here in weakened condition, so no problem.  They got rough in the western part of Oklahoma.  It was the 3rd night with thunderstorms here with the rain amount staying well under 1 inch.  That helps a lot.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on June 16, 2019, 05:16:41 PM
Nice 20 degree drop from a passing thunderstorm.
Man I love the rainy season.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 16, 2019, 11:20:09 PM
"By early Friday morning the flow
aloft will change southwesterly as longwave trough digs into the
Rockies and Intermountain West. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast in
the Northern Plains Thursday night. The low pressure system will
likely lift toward the northeast into the southeastern Canadian
Prairies and northwest Ontario by Saturday morning. Deterministic
and ensemble models differ in the details, but seem to have good
agreement in the placement of the trough and eventual eastward
progression. Southwesterly return flow is possible ahead of the
system, which may support strong to severe thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening and perhaps again Saturday.

Temperatures will remain near to below normal for the long term
period with afternoon highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s.
"
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 17, 2019, 03:50:44 PM
I made reference to this a month or so ago, but as I watch another short wave dig through the SW like it's March (with yet another this weekend), it's looking more and more like our sub-tropical high isn't going to set up shop in the four corners any time soon. We're "technically" in monsoon season now, although it really doesn't get here till around the 4th of July, but if this long term pattern doesn't change soon, it could be a very miserable, dry summer down here.  :sad:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 17, 2019, 05:08:44 PM
We're "technically" in monsoon season now, although it really doesn't get here till around the 4th of July, but if this long term pattern doesn't change soon, it could be a very miserable, dry summer down here.  :sad:

Up in Page, you could set the calendar with first thunderstorms breaking out and independence day and never be off by more than 1 or 2 days.
I thought it was assinine when they decided to set an artificial monsoon date mid-June usually the driest and hottest time of year. Maybe once a decade it starts that early, they should go back to the 3 dewpoint days in a row over 55 for Phoenix as the official start. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 17, 2019, 09:18:51 PM
We're "technically" in monsoon season now, although it really doesn't get here till around the 4th of July, but if this long term pattern doesn't change soon, it could be a very miserable, dry summer down here.  :sad:
I thought it was assinine when they decided to set an artificial monsoon date mid-June usually the driest and hottest time of year. Maybe once a decade it starts that early, they should go back to the 3 dewpoint days in a row over 55 for Phoenix as the official start.
It was done to appease non locals so they'd have an "idea" when the t-storm season might start. I though it was/is stupid as well. Here we use, well use to use, a 3 day average of a 54F dew to signal the start of the monsoon. Why PHX uses 55F, dunno.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 19, 2019, 11:37:13 AM
(https://maps8.pivotalweather.com/maps/cpc/latest/814temp.conus.png)

Looks like the pattern will change for most of the US compared to what it was this past week, more flooding and storms for my area.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 19, 2019, 05:19:05 PM
Rolling Thunder.

Not the bike parade, the stuff in the storm clouds that carries on for a minute or more as it wanders overhead.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 19, 2019, 06:43:21 PM
Rolling Thunder.

Not the bike parade, the stuff in the storm clouds that carries on for a minute or more as it wanders overhead.
No idea about your topography but the valley here is pretty much surrounded by three mountain chains and I've found that CC lighting is much more "echoey" compared to CG strikes.
Whether the topo here is responsible or that's just the way it is.... :?:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on June 20, 2019, 07:15:13 PM
Andy Thompson has a storm heading his way. Already dropped on tornado and ping pong ball size hail.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 20, 2019, 07:18:13 PM
Yeah I'm watching them, they look decently organized right now.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on June 20, 2019, 08:00:04 PM
Andy sent me a message that he was having golf ball hail
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 20, 2019, 08:14:54 PM
Yeah those storms are producing atleast Tennis ball sized hail though, they look pretty nasty.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 20, 2019, 10:12:06 PM
Under a tornado watch tonight.
Little off subject weather cam caught a deer walking by while I was putting up house numbers. This new neighborhood on the edge of town is infested with whitetails which I'm okay with. I see them feeding in neighbors yards all the time, deer sitings are at least a couple of times a day.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 20, 2019, 10:19:53 PM
Atleast they have some place to feast
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on June 21, 2019, 01:24:54 AM
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Nice bow on this one. North of me just a few miles. Thankfully.

NWS HSI
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on June 21, 2019, 01:36:04 AM
Very. You can see the gust front here as the leading thin green line on this one.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=UEX-N0Q-1-24
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 21, 2019, 09:53:54 AM
I hate it when my area is in an increasing risk area.  Early yesterday, the risk was Marginal.  Late yesterday they upgraded to Slight.  Now this morning they've cranked it up again to Enhanced.  Never a good sign.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 21, 2019, 02:41:15 PM
And now they've expanded the Enhanced again to cover a much wider area.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on June 21, 2019, 06:03:27 PM
Hottest day of year here in Oklahoma came with high heat index advisory at my weather station.   There is a flood watch out for this weekend.  Hopefully, thunderstorms won't get too severe:

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/hiheatindex.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 21, 2019, 08:49:47 PM
0516 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE HEATH             37.06N 88.77W
06/21/2019                   MCCRACKEN          KY   OTHER FEDERAL

            BARKLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT TEMPORARY AIRPORT
            TOWER TRAILER SHIFTED OFF FOUNDATION. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

OK, there's one you don't see every day.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on June 22, 2019, 07:02:21 AM
DP's flirting with 80 yesterday.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 22, 2019, 12:39:15 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/71NbGvD.gif)

Above normal temperatures for my area from June 29th to July 5th, oh boy  #-o
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on June 26, 2019, 12:44:22 PM
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

More weirdness
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on June 26, 2019, 12:50:14 PM
In these days in Italy there is an exceptional heat wave. It is possible that it reaches up to 40 ° C / 104 Fahrenheit
In doing so he exceeds the 2003 record reached 37 ° C / 98.6 Fahrenheit.
Already next week the heat will return to normal.

(http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019062606/gfs-0-18.png)

Yesterday in my locality 37 ° C were touched.
Today they surely surpass each other.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 26, 2019, 06:26:57 PM
In these days in Italy there is an exceptional heat wave. It is possible that it reaches up to 40 ° C / 104 Fahrenheit
In doing so he exceeds the 2003 record reached 37 ° C / 98.6 Fahrenheit.
Already next week the heat will return to normal.

(http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019062606/gfs-0-18.png)

Yesterday in my locality 37 ° C were touched.
Today they surely surpass each other.

What's the dewpoint looking like at those temperatures? Do people normally have air conditioning? Makes a big difference in what people are accustomed.  37C is no big deal for many here in states but most have AC too.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on June 26, 2019, 11:46:39 PM
In these days in Italy there is an exceptional heat wave. It is possible that it reaches up to 40 ° C / 104 Fahrenheit
In doing so he exceeds the 2003 record reached 37 ° C / 98.6 Fahrenheit.
Already next week the heat will return to normal.

(http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019062606/gfs-0-18.png)

Yesterday in my locality 37 ° C were touched.
Today they surely surpass each other.

That is nuts! Hope you can stay cool and hydrated my friend.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on June 27, 2019, 08:56:26 AM
dew point 22.5 Valentine.

subzero; I am drinking as much as I can, in fact the problem and when it comes out there is a hot air.
Look at the current temperature and the perceived temperature.

http://meteobrianza.altervista.org/wp-content/meteo/wxindex.php

the perceived temperature is now 45 ° C
Absurd on the news they said there were already 5 dead people were elderly.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 28, 2019, 05:46:47 PM
We are having a warm spell also. Feels like just over 100F but with the breeze not that bad in the shade. Our dewpoints also high for us low to mid 70's.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on June 28, 2019, 06:22:14 PM
wow! personally I bear the cold more. I consider myself more cold-hearted :-). However unfortunately for us we still have it for quite a while. Our problem is that in the Po valley there is a lot of humidity and when there is no heat this wind is never present. So you can imagine. Perhaps you are more used to it.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 28, 2019, 06:51:53 PM
wow! personally I bear the cold more. I consider myself more cold-hearted :-). However unfortunately for us we still have it for quite a while. Our problem is that in the Po valley there is a lot of humidity and when there is no heat this wind is never present. So you can imagine. Perhaps you are more used to it.

LOL, I'm with you. Cooler the better I like around 65F , 18c max for highs.
Here in the middle United States, we do get the arctic air masses winter also. -39F and C to be exact 1989., and hot weather to boot as high as 114F, 45.5C. Nuts and crazy weather but love it.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on June 28, 2019, 07:18:07 PM
Then we get along.  :grin:
Here the least ever reached I'm talking about Milan was -17 ° C in February 2012.
https://milano.corriere.it/milano/notizie/cronaca/12_febbraio_5/freddo-picco-gelo-emergenza-neve-1903151709224.shtml (https://milano.corriere.it/milano/notizie/cronaca/12_febbraio_5/freddo-picco-gelo-emergenza-neve-1903151709224.shtml)
I had to go see a soccer game at the stadium but I couldn't go because they had postponed it.
I hope this heat wave ends soon and makes us breathe this summer.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on June 28, 2019, 09:24:52 PM
Then we get along.  :grin:
Here the least ever reached I'm talking about Milan was -17 ° C in February 2012.
https://milano.corriere.it/milano/notizie/cronaca/12_febbraio_5/freddo-picco-gelo-emergenza-neve-1903151709224.shtml (https://milano.corriere.it/milano/notizie/cronaca/12_febbraio_5/freddo-picco-gelo-emergenza-neve-1903151709224.shtml)
I had to go see a soccer game at the stadium but I couldn't go because they had postponed it.
I hope this heat wave ends soon and makes us breathe this summer.

Interrestisting article. Another Chicago Illinois of all places, several million people you would expect a heat island broke an all-time record low last winter, dating back to early America.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on June 28, 2019, 10:20:27 PM
Yes I heard they showed it also on our local channels. The seasons are getting extreme now. We had, below average in May until mid-June and then this heat wave immediately arrived. This happened before the heat wave in Bologna.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on June 29, 2019, 07:02:59 AM
Tuesday it was 98.2 with heat index of 120.
I been in Florida for about 30 years. I can honestly say that was a hot MF'r.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: gwwilk on June 29, 2019, 08:12:52 AM
Perhaps some perspective, at least from the USA's point of view, can be gained by checking this site (https://www.weatherforyou.com/weather_history/index.php) daily.

Don't allow the apocalyptics to drag you into their short-sighted camp...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: pekkie on June 29, 2019, 03:56:32 PM
Beautiful as a site, tells you everything.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: bks97 on July 04, 2019, 09:09:37 AM
The NWS-Duluth office has done a great job revisiting the July 4, 1999 blowdown event across the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in northeast Minnesota:

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/July_4_1999_BWCA_Storm
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on July 04, 2019, 10:36:42 AM
The NWS-Duluth office has done a great job revisiting the July 4, 1999 blowdown event across the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in northeast Minnesota:

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/July_4_1999_BWCA_Storm
Excellent thanks for the post. I've seen areas with large blowdowns before usually in remote mountains but nothing like this.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 04, 2019, 04:33:51 PM
Kinda weird to watch an outflow boundary approach on radar, then look at your cameras and watch the trees go from still to waving wildly in just a matter of minutes.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 07, 2019, 05:25:26 PM
Today marks the 125th consecutive day that the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois has been above flood stage. Moderate flooding is occurring now with a crest around 49 feet forecast on Thursday. Flooding will continue until further notice.

Previous record was 97 days in 1973.



Currently at 150 days, the Ohio is forecast to finally fall below Flood Stage (40') on or about the 13th, which would make it around 156 days.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 07, 2019, 11:22:42 PM
Talk about a change of air mass, I went from a dew point of 71F at 1pm local to now 7 hours later, and it's utterly crashed to 18F. The non-soon continues.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: AWL on July 09, 2019, 09:09:14 AM
The non-soon continues.


Was watching your site yesterday. Dew point of 6 and humidity of 3! Moisture really rolling in for y'all  #-o


Doug
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 09, 2019, 03:17:43 PM
The non-soon continues.
Was watching your site yesterday. Dew point of 6 and humidity of 3! Moisture really rolling in for y'all  #-o
Doug
:lol: Not quite yet, Doug. Unfortunately my prediction that I made a couple of months of a delayed monsoon is coming to fruition. However, we're suppose to be in a more favorable flow come this weekend, so maybe we can get the ball rolling and keep it rolling cause our window of opportunity only last about 10 weeks at best.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on July 09, 2019, 05:28:54 PM
This area could spare some. I hope your monsoon begins soon.

This our last 24 hrs for the Hastings, NE coverage area. Needless to say, flooding is common. I had 1.64" in the CoCoRaHS this morning.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 09, 2019, 05:50:56 PM
This area could spare some. I hope your monsoon begins soon.

Thanks. We only average 12" a year, and literally half comes from the next two months, so to drought or not is heavily dependent on our summer rains, or lack thereof.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: AWL on July 10, 2019, 04:37:35 PM
Interesting weather today. First hit yearly high temp (95.7), yearly high dew point (81.4), and yearly high heat index of 118.3. Just had a 43mph gust with thunderstorms blowing thru. Temperature is falling 17 degrees/hr, down to 74 and raining at 5.5 inches/hr.


Doug
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on July 13, 2019, 05:28:17 PM
CPC showing a potential pattern change 3-4 weeks out?

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 13, 2019, 09:18:49 PM
Holy crap, careful what you wish for!! I've been whining about the NON-soon, well it just gave us a "how do you do". In 45 minutes I picked up 1.67" of rain at a max of 9" per hour (per the RW bucket), pea size hail (that's about as big as we usually get) 39mph gust (no biggie) and a temp drop of 24F. Whew....
It also helped me discover how many leaks in my widow sills that must be dealt with.... ](*,)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on July 13, 2019, 09:20:48 PM
That's an incredible amount of rain in such a short time. We rarely get stuff like that in Minnesota here
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on July 13, 2019, 09:32:45 PM
Holy crap, careful what you wish for!! I've been whining about the NON-soon, well it just gave us a "how do you do". In 45 minutes I picked up 1.67" of rain at a max of 9" per hour (per the RW bucket), pea size hail (that's about as big as we usually get) 39mph gust (no biggie) and a temp drop of 24F. Whew....
It also helped me discover how many leaks in my widow sills that must be dealt with.... ](*,)

Kind of rain that brings the bullfrogs out.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Subzero on July 13, 2019, 09:37:45 PM
Some heavy rainfall rates!
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0593.gif)


New Orleans under a tornado warning too!
(https://i.imgur.com/xPMcBw3.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 13, 2019, 09:39:18 PM
Holy crap, careful what you wish for!! I've been whining about the NON-soon, well it just gave us a "how do you do". In 45 minutes I picked up 1.67" of rain at a max of 9" per hour (per the RW bucket), pea size hail (that's about as big as we usually get) 39mph gust (no biggie) and a temp drop of 24F. Whew....
It also helped me discover how many leaks in my widow sills that must be dealt with.... ](*,)

Kind of rain that brings the bullfrogs out.
Thems ain't bullfrogs here, they're Colorado river toads, and they'll be out in the zillions now.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on July 13, 2019, 10:45:13 PM
Good to hear, sir.  :grin:

Arrange to send some down to south of Sierra Vista where my sister lives.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 13, 2019, 10:48:47 PM
Good to hear, sir.  :grin:

Arrange to send some down to south of Sierra Vista where my sister lives.
Thanks, but sis has nothing to worry about. I don't know exactly, but they must average at least double what we in Tucson get.

EDIT: Hate putting out bad info so I checked and Sierra Vista only gets on average 19% more rain than Tucson does. That really surprised me... :oops:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 14, 2019, 01:13:50 AM
Finally got outside to check my Stratus gauge against my Rainwise tipper and couldn't be happier, especially considering how much the wind was blowing and maxing out at a 9" per hour rate, RW 1.69", Stratus 1.67". =D> This is by far the best comparison I've ever had between the two and am tickled at the results, especially since I calibrated the RW myself with a gallon milk jug. This is exactly why I use my RW as my "official" rain measurement, not the Stratus. Damn good tipper...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on July 17, 2019, 10:10:21 AM
(https://scontent.fmkc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/66841815_10206080890297373_5090710300840165376_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_oc=AQl6dsEmFsDeZmH1VL63f6BOGitN-ZeNJs7suv--NVmBCVkqigjYpmZlLdCo5nT6kSKL4Htu38b7tm6_vCWnBIdJ&_nc_ht=scontent.fmkc1-1.fna&oh=f17cf33c232744d826d560ec6c5bb975&oe=5DBEAF84)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 17, 2019, 01:33:51 PM
Big shift in the works for next week?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 17, 2019, 02:02:19 PM
Here's a real nice loop of an MCV that's forming from a decaying MCS from last night in Sonora MX.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Sonora-02-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on July 17, 2019, 04:10:06 PM
Big shift in the works for next week?

I hope so. Currently here 103, DP 70.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 17, 2019, 05:38:47 PM
 :shock:

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\:D/

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on July 18, 2019, 09:33:20 PM
Just about one of the most uncomfortable evenings I can remember here in NW Kansas in 40 years. Temperature 88, Wind calm, DP 78, RH 72%. And it is 8:30 p.m.

How did I ever survive growing up without air conditioning?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 18, 2019, 09:49:40 PM
How did I ever survive growing up without air conditioning?
The worst part for me, trying to sleep...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 19, 2019, 02:48:25 AM
Power rates are too high to have it on all the time.  I use it for a few hours in the evening to get to sleep.  It has a timer to shut itself off.  Ceiling fan the rest of the day.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on July 19, 2019, 10:07:46 AM
Cody MatzVerified account
@CodyMatzFox9

So.... it's mid July.... it may feel like 110° this afternoon...  and yet, MSP Airport STILL has some snow on the ground. They Instagramed this picture yesterday of their "dump zone". I really want to go play in it ;)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_1hPV2UwAUcS9V.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on July 19, 2019, 06:20:24 PM
I think I have my high stats for the year

High Temperature 92.9°F 
Low Temperature -28.0°F     

High Dew point 83.3°F
Low Dew point -34.0°F 

High Heat Index 122.0°F
Low Wind Chill -50.0°F

High THSW index 134.0F
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on July 20, 2019, 12:11:13 PM
My changes today

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What a difference.  Graphs never lie. This morning--40mph wind and .75 inches at home. <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NWSTwinCities</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CodyMatzFox9?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CodyMatzFox9</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Jason_Disharoon?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Jason_Disharoon</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/mnwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#mnwx</a> <a href="https://t.co/tKHrrMX2Ap">pic.twitter.com/tKHrrMX2Ap</a></p>&mdash; RMSWeather (@RMSWeather) <a href="https://twitter.com/RMSWeather/status/1152593993668136962?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Fishing tourney on Balsam Lake Wi today. Hundreds of trees down. Constant sound of chainsaws and lots of damaged boats. <a href="https://t.co/6eqEFlRVdw">pic.twitter.com/6eqEFlRVdw</a></p>&mdash; Frank Vascellaro (@frankieVWCCO) <a href="https://twitter.com/frankieVWCCO/status/1152600083814330368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Lots of trees down in Western Wisconsin. Brother in Laws cabin has many down. Dock overturned, Boat and lift moved. Something is in his lake front that does not belong to him.

Winds in S Minnesota and N Iowa reaching 70 mph with hail.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on July 20, 2019, 04:03:54 PM
Heck of a storm.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on July 22, 2019, 07:29:06 AM
Brother in Laws cabin in Western Wisconsin has a lot of trees down. I loaned him my generator.

Flipped dock. Luckily no damage to the boat or wave runners. BUT...There was a pontoon from two cabins down in his lake front. It was beat up.
My wife was up there yesterday. Said in some places it looked like all the trees in one area had been cut off by a hedge trimmer. It will take a while to clean up.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 22, 2019, 01:32:54 PM
Anybody out there with a radar product, check this curl up feature shown just below KPAH.  Thing winds up out of that bow just south of it.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on July 22, 2019, 10:48:56 PM
Brother in Laws cabin in Western Wisconsin has a lot of trees down. I loaned him my generator.

Flipped dock. Luckily no damage to the boat or wave runners. BUT...There was a pontoon from two cabins down in his lake front. It was beat up.
My wife was up there yesterday. Said in some places it looked like all the trees in one area had been cut off by a hedge trimmer. It will take a while to clean up.

Sorry to hear of the damage.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on July 23, 2019, 01:36:38 AM
On Sunday, Oklahoma City got up to 100 for the first time this year.   Then Monday morning a strong for time of year cold front passed by without any storms.  It lightly stormed here with .15" of rain, so didn't amount to too much, fortunately.    Oklahoma City may have a record low of 60 Wednesday morning. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on July 27, 2019, 07:52:56 PM
First time in a week I've felt the need to turn the AC on.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on July 28, 2019, 08:46:01 PM
4 tornados so far.

Cabin mentioned before is without electricity again. My generator is getting a workout. No trees down for them. But a restaurant on the lake may not have a roof anymore. It is about a mile north of them. 

It will be interesting to see if Joe Mauers' parents fortress has damage.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on July 30, 2019, 10:04:07 PM
Absolutely prototypical monsoonal ridge here the past two days, MCV's flying around and all. Fine and dandy...except that everyone's getting rain besides the metro and me. :-({|=

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southwest-09-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 01, 2019, 12:01:29 PM
I think the Dog Days have set in.  Next 10 days forecast is within a couple of degrees of 85/70 nearly every day.



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 01, 2019, 06:37:30 PM
Stillwater may get nearly 4 inches of rain this weekend.  After a dry July, we'll take it.  So far, no flood watch.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/augrain.JPG)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 02, 2019, 05:15:04 PM
Flood watch out. Doesn't include Oklahoma City. Included is northeast and east central Oklahoma:

Effective: Fri, 8/2 2:00pm Updated: Fri, 8/2 4:00pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Sun, 8/4 2:50am Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...Flooding Possible Tonight into Saturday...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of central
Oklahoma, east central Oklahoma, northern Oklahoma, and
southeast Oklahoma
* From late this evening through Saturday afternoon.
* Heavy rainfall associated with widespread showers and
thunderstorms late this evening into Saturday.
* Avoid areas that normally flood during heavy rain and do not
drive into areas where water covers the road. Flooding is very
hard to see at night, so use extreme caution if you are
traveling at night.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Counties covered in green:

(https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png)

(https://www.wunderground.com/data/severe/current_severe_nostatefarm.gif?dontcache=y)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 03, 2019, 01:19:15 PM
As of noon in Oklahoma, rainfall amounts are concentrating in a very heavy way in a fairly narrow band between Oklahoma City and Tulsa or really more like stretching between  the Kansas and Texas borders.  The east side of Stillwater has gone over 2 inches.   But the west side hasn't even gotten to an inch.

(https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on August 03, 2019, 03:14:59 PM
As of noon in Oklahoma, rainfall amounts are concentrating in a very heavy way in a fairly narrow band between Oklahoma City and Tulsa or really more like stretching between  the Kansas and Texas borders.  The east side of Stillwater has gone over 2 inches.   But the west side hasn't even gotten to an inch.
For those unaware that care, when rain/storms of this nature occur, it's called 'training'. Here's 200 frames of it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TLX-N0Q-1-200
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 03, 2019, 03:23:18 PM
After griping about too much rain for too long, this was the first day I've had to water anything all summer.  Dumped close to 200 gallons on my fruit trees.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 03, 2019, 07:37:36 PM
Interesting how much of the Stillwater area missed the train, except for the east side.  Official amount was .89".

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/raintrainstw.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 03, 2019, 08:16:40 PM
Ummm....  Scuuse Me?


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https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPAH.html



:scratches head:

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on August 03, 2019, 08:46:19 PM
Completely possible. The updates are only at one hour intervals, so in between the high occurred. Unfortunately you folks not in the western region can only get ASOS updates on the hour, we out west can get them every 5 minutes. Much more convenient for comparisons sake, let alone just simply more info.
Here's my home town example as you'll notice up top the selection available for 5 minute obs.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=twc&sid=KTUS&num=48
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on August 04, 2019, 08:19:14 AM
Completely possible. The updates are only at one hour intervals, so in between the high occurred. Unfortunately you folks not in the western region can only get ASOS updates on the hour, we out west can get them every 5 minutes. Much more convenient for comparisons sake, let alone just simply more info.
Here's my home town example as you'll notice up top the selection available for 5 minute obs.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=twc&sid=KTUS&num=48

Everyone has the 5-minute update using Mesowest. You can see where the high occurred within a string of 91.4F.  During one of the 5-minute sections, there was 1 minute where temp averaged 92.
The idea behind the 1-minute average is to simulate the slower reaction time of the older instruments and cotton region shelters.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KPAH&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on August 04, 2019, 02:50:28 PM
Completely possible. The updates are only at one hour intervals, so in between the high occurred. Unfortunately you folks not in the western region can only get ASOS updates on the hour, we out west can get them every 5 minutes. Much more convenient for comparisons sake, let alone just simply more info.
Here's my home town example as you'll notice up top the selection available for 5 minute obs.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=twc&sid=KTUS&num=48
Everyone has the 5-minute update using Mesowest.
Of course. I'm so use to using the NWS web site for obs out here that I forgot about Meso being at 5. #-o I know they're different entities but find it curious that the NWS nation wide isn't standardized the same as Meso is.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on August 06, 2019, 09:24:57 AM
Just returned from SE Arizona and I enjoyed the weather of the Sky Islands very much. I managed to bring .65" of rain to my sister's and brother-in-law's place, which they appreciated because they have been missing the moisture. Saw some nice cloud to ground in storms that skipped around their place.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 06, 2019, 09:11:19 PM
Guess what the 'official' rain  total will be for today?


 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]


Yeup.  Just like the famous lighter.

The bit of echo shown is probably clutter, but they might end up showing a trace.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 08, 2019, 06:23:22 PM
As KFOR Meteorologist Emily Sutton of OKC observed, "Thanks to rain in northern OK and a front, we have two different seasons in our state! Summer in southern OK, near 100 degrees🔥 and fall to the north in the 70s!".  Yesterday, high was around 102 in Stillwater and probably hottest day of the year.    This as of 2:20 PM Thursday with light rain:

(https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/67924153_2627473363969716_6482060249095208960_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_oc=AQn0nzBB0EvfhhJ7APS8ymgovP5g-OwLiGDCw6TjZWfRSg5jXCcCaouAz9g-bduXJ-A&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=6361241f3a93e4abb576645108b21e00&oe=5DE21E27)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: JCA433 on August 09, 2019, 01:42:53 PM
Heat index 110 F punishes with severe discomfort.   I trying to mow my lawn in these conditions and feel like I might collapse.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 09, 2019, 11:42:32 PM
Amazingly high 24 hr. rainfall totals in northeast Oklahoma City.   Cold front to move back north with temps around 100 Saturday through Monday.   I bet the heat index will be brutally high.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainokc.JPG)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on August 15, 2019, 04:39:55 PM
To say the monsoon has taken a hike is an understatement, just posted a 109/28F for 6%. What's worse, next week is progged to be even hotter with all time high temps for August on the potential cutting block. Great, as is, only about four weeks left til the non-soon leaves for good, if it hasn't already. I guess we'll hafta hope for a wet winter... :roll:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on August 15, 2019, 10:49:30 PM
To say the monsoon has taken a hike is an understatement, just posted a 109/28F for 6%. What's worse, next week is progged to be even hotter with all time high temps for August on the potential cutting block. Great, as is, only about four weeks left til the non-soon leaves for good, if it hasn't already. I guess we'll hafta hope for a wet winter... :roll:

That winter precipitation outlook (for what it is worth) isn't real encouraging.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 17, 2019, 07:22:57 AM
Sort of on the down bound side now.  Our average daily temperature dropped from 79 to 78 on August 1st and drops to 77 on August 21, then to 76 on the 27th.

Forecast doesn't look to be cooperating though.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 18, 2019, 12:54:47 PM
You know it's wayyyyy too humid when you open your freezer door and the fog rolls out.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on August 18, 2019, 03:17:06 PM
Very wet for the first half of August down here. Sitting at 16.36 for the month.
My record for any month was 16.53 in September 09.
Have a real shot at 20 inches this month.
To my NW on the Gulf coast is really getting slammed. Since Thursday afternoon the area around the mouth of the Steinhatchee River has received 25 inches of rain with 15 of that coming in one day.
No tropical systems here just good ole fashion summertime toad stranglers.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 18, 2019, 05:10:33 PM
Those sound more like Flamingo stranglers.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 20, 2019, 12:36:42 PM
How do you spell relief?  S-P-C- S-W-O-D-Y-1


The last three outlooks have moved an Enhanced Risk zone progressively closer.  The most recent one just released takes it quite far away and even moves the Sight Risk zone almost off of us, but not quite.  Still means we could get nasties, but less probable.





Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on August 21, 2019, 03:00:42 PM
https://www.facebook.com/pg/urwillersmelonpatch/photos/?__tn__=%2CdkCH-R-R

The real face of severe weather. Feel for these folks in Nebraska last night. Just felt like sharing it. Hope that is okay. An hour's worth of hail up to golf ball size, 5.5" of rain, and wind.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on August 23, 2019, 11:34:42 PM
After a dry July in this area, a rainy August  has wiped out threat of a new drought starting. After two rainy nights,  Stillwater was on the western end of an area with the most rain in Oklahoma stretching east to the Arkansas border.  I got 4.07".  Normal for August is 3.06".  8 in., so far, here.   Another round of rain originating in western Kansas is supposes to come early Sunday morning.
https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/wet-and-wild-summer-continues/article_afc7eabf-d0c4-55a7-ad03-ad150300d0fc.html (https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/wet-and-wild-summer-continues/article_afc7eabf-d0c4-55a7-ad03-ad150300d0fc.html)

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rain48hr.png)

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on August 27, 2019, 06:45:45 PM
Looks like we may finally see a respite from non-soon 2019 as the steering flow should give us a decent chance at a rim-shot or two in the upcoming day or so. Rim-shots can get rather frisky, especially with an inverted trough down south progged to help things along. Could see storms well into the early morning hours, not very common here.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on August 27, 2019, 07:09:17 PM
On the year running (-3.8F) on temperature and (+10.6") on moisture. Groundwater levels of the Ogallala Aquifer are so high some roads are still closed.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on August 27, 2019, 07:10:49 PM
On the year running (-3.8F) on temperature
Wow...
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on August 27, 2019, 07:44:53 PM
On the year running (-3.8F) on temperature
Wow...

February was the main reason. Historically I believe they said was 6th coldest Feb. on record. This goes back to 1884 or something like that. Same time period Chicago set their all-time ever low temperature.
The amazing thing with that record not only was it coldest ever for any month, it happened after the expansion of concrete and steel.  Image you could shave at least a couple more degrees off had that same air mass arrived at the turn of the 20th century.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on August 31, 2019, 12:45:03 PM
Yesterdays .70 puts me at 17.66 for the month of August.
One more day to add to that total.  [tup]
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 31, 2019, 12:55:54 PM
We were 'below normal' precip for much of August.  Then came two storms, dropping well over an inch each on the official measuring cup at the WFO that brought us 'above normal'.  That makes 16 straight months and something like 22 out of 24.



Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2019, 05:56:21 AM
Thanks in large part to a very active June, summer 2019 (June-August) ends with the most number of combined warnings (Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, and Flash Flood) that our office [KPAH] has ever issued during a summer season since office inception in 1995. The 240 warnings issued for our 58 county forecast area doubled the summer average for our area.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on September 03, 2019, 07:05:16 PM
Now that meteorological summer is over, the particulars are out for southern Arizona for those that wish to peruse. For those that don't, I'll encapsulate with two words, hot, dry.
Whatta shock with this years predicted non-soon coming to fruition. :roll:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/monthly/aug19.php
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 04, 2019, 04:01:20 AM
Yesterdays .70 puts me at 17.66 for the month of August.
One more day to add to that total.  [tup]

Makes my 5.7" look like a drought and that was almost double normal.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 04, 2019, 09:20:10 AM
August in our area. Thought it might be interesting to some.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 04, 2019, 10:42:39 AM
Amazing how areas really got dumped on and others didn't. But thats the nature of thunderstorms where almost all the heavy rain in this area comes from.
We were getting storms nightly for a while but may only get clipped dumping 1/4" but 5 miles away receives  3". Some of the same areas seem to get hit the hardest over and over.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 04, 2019, 11:02:12 AM
Amazing how areas really got dumped on and others didn't. But thats the nature of thunderstorms where almost all the heavy rain in this area comes from.

See post 310.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 04, 2019, 12:29:10 PM
This was one of our rare afternoon thunderstorms most come at night. Decided to get more of a panoramic view with camera. We ended up with .42" but some areas were dumped on.

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 04, 2019, 05:26:04 PM
Amazing how areas really got dumped on and others didn't. But thats the nature of thunderstorms where almost all the heavy rain in this area comes from.
We were getting storms nightly for a while but may only get clipped dumping 1/4" but 5 miles away receives  3". Some of the same areas seem to get hit the hardest over and over.

Associated topic. You may have heard of this study a few years ago:

https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/pecan/
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 04, 2019, 05:36:09 PM
Hadn't heard of it before.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on September 04, 2019, 05:39:51 PM
Now that's a PWS. 8-)

https://live.staticflickr.com/8763/17620176073_72384cb918_z.jpg
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 04, 2019, 07:08:42 PM
Now that's a PWS. 8-)

https://live.staticflickr.com/8763/17620176073_72384cb918_z.jpg

Wouldn't it be nice?

Hadn't heard of it before.

One of the main staging areas was Hays, KS south of us. The study did not extend as far north in NE as you are. I suspect it is still providing data for many Doctoral candidates.  :-)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 06, 2019, 04:30:28 PM
Quick sidetrack ...

Straight up 83 just north of the SD state line north of Valentine, there's a group of houses or barns, some kind of buildings laid out in neat even rows with paved roads.  What is that?  Housing for farm workers?

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 11, 2019, 08:58:05 AM
Quick sidetrack ...

Straight up 83 just north of the SD state line north of Valentine, there's a group of houses or barns, some kind of buildings laid out in neat even rows with paved roads.  What is that?  Housing for farm workers?

Your tax dollar at work. HUD or better known as tribal housing. That's an Indian casino right on the South Dakota border. The area is Lakota Sioux Rosebud Reservation. Yes, many are workers mainly at the Casino but some work in Valentine.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 11, 2019, 09:01:30 AM
Mesocyclone as it approached Valentine yesterday. The airport recorded 81 mph wind.
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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 11, 2019, 09:44:10 AM
Did you get some of the heavy rain? I would check, but our Verizon ISP is throttling my data speed so badly that I can barely connect to this site.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 11, 2019, 10:12:34 AM
Quick sidetrack ...

Straight up 83 just north of the SD state line north of Valentine, there's a group of houses or barns, some kind of buildings laid out in neat even rows with paved roads.  What is that?  Housing for farm workers?

Your tax dollar at work. HUD or better known as tribal housing. That's an Indian casino right on the South Dakota border. The area is Lakota Sioux Rosebud Reservation. Yes, many are workers mainly at the Casino but some work in Valentine.

Huh.  Not what I expected.  Oh well.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on September 11, 2019, 10:17:15 AM
Sioux Falls got beat up.
Mall, hospital, many homes.

https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Sioux%20Falls%22&src=trend_click&f=live
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 11, 2019, 11:52:48 AM
Did you get some of the heavy rain? I would check, but our Verizon ISP is throttling my data speed so badly that I can barely connect to this site.

Not that bad here, Cocorahs (1.48"), NE (1.39"). But areas were hit much harder. Cousin 39 mi south 4.1" also Cocorahs gauge but she doesn't report. Same area 36 miles SE at Ainsworth airport 4.81". HW 20 flooded 2 places and HW 83 again flooded. All passable.

Guess we are going to have more tonight. The fun never stops. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 12, 2019, 05:43:05 AM
Reached the 30" mark of precip on the year. Flooding on highways continues with areas south, SE receiving over 7"  2-day totals. This is an anomaly according to the NWS statement for September.  These same areas have exceeded 40" on the year with groundwater tables full and no place for the water to go. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 12, 2019, 01:21:04 PM
Once again, September is turning out to be the hottest and driest month of the year.  Nearly every day has been in the mid 90s and not a drop of rain.  Currently 3.1°  above normal and 1.25" below normal.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 15, 2019, 07:36:14 PM
FXUS63 KPAH 152006
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019



Today marks the 20th consecutive day with no measurable rain in
Paducah, marking the longest dry streak since September 2011. With
no real end in sight, we may add at least 6 or 7 more days to
this dry stretch.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 15, 2019, 08:22:10 PM
15   18:53   Calm   10.00   Fair   CLR   83   66    96   82

And that's the highest High of the year (so far).  July and August had days at 95, but none higher.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: chief-david on September 15, 2019, 08:40:58 PM
First 80 degree day in a month.
First time in many years no 80 at the state fair Aug 20-Sept 3.

did not mind.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 16, 2019, 06:03:55 AM
I noticed the Northern Alaska Brooks Range and North Slope had a winter storm warning up today.
Meanwhile, we are getting into the '90s this week.  Actually was a little uncomfortable yesterday and havn't had that many hot days all summer. 
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 16, 2019, 06:36:08 AM
Due to low participation, I plan to let this thread run to the end of the year, then do an annual thread for next year.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 16, 2019, 07:37:23 AM
Due to low participation, I plan to let this thread run to the end of the year, then do an annual thread for next year.


Huh?

2019
353 Replies
12174 Views

2018
366 Replies
15813 Views

2017
159 Replies
12690 Views


Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 16, 2019, 01:32:19 PM
Yes, but on a thread like this, I would expect double to triple that.  Those whole years combined didn't get hardly a thousand posts and most of them are from the same five or six posters.

An annual thread would also get past the 'which season is which months' bit.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 16, 2019, 01:46:48 PM
Yes, but on a thread like this, I would expect double to triple that.  Those whole years combined didn't get hardly a thousand posts and most of them are from the same five or six posters.

An annual thread would also get past the 'which season is which months' bit.

Might as well just start the thread in the WU section If it's about popularity.   
Since the site has turned into a popularity contest anyway. :mrgreen:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 16, 2019, 05:11:45 PM
15   18:53   Calm   10.00   Fair   CLR   83   66    96   82

And that's the highest High of the year (so far).  July and August had days at 95, but none higher.

16   13:53   Calm   10.00   Fair   CLR   97   66


And if I'm reading the chart right, that should be a record high, beating the 96 on this date in 1939.


Feldergarb!!!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 16, 2019, 05:25:10 PM
Go here and click then Record Highs tab.  Note the cluster of record highs in September 1938, 39 and 40.

https://www.weather.gov/pah/PaducahDailyNormalsAndRecords

I see 39-40 noted as the end of the Dust Bowl, but that was further west.

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 16, 2019, 06:54:22 PM

Record highs occurred in Paducah, KY and Cape Girardeau, MO of 97 and 99 degrees respectively. This also marks the hottest temperature of the year in both cities. This is quite unusual in the sense of how late in the season it is. In fact, since records began, Paducah and Cape Girardeau had never observed their hottest temperature of the season this late in the year. The 3 week dry spell likely contributed somewhat, as the dry ground is easier to heat up.



RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
0513 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH KY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY
TODAY...SEPTEMBER 16. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1939.
THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on September 19, 2019, 07:07:24 PM
Looks to be shaping up for a well deserved wet weekend in the SW with what's her face and the other guy down south. Non-soon 2019 has basically been just that, so we'll have to hope the tropics can help with the deficit, as is common this time of year. Even though it's considered "monsoonal" rain, it has nothing to do with it, merely rain before the end of the "official" season.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 20, 2019, 05:22:34 AM
My brother called yesterday after experiencing the worst flooding he had ever seen NE sub of Houston Humble, Kingwood area over 13.5" of rain, 9" fell in 2 hours. He ended up kicking wood slats out from his yard fence to keep the water from backing into his house.  He said any vehicle parked along the street water went over the floorboards which usually totals them because of the airbag wiring system and liabilities involved.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 20, 2019, 05:38:03 AM
News clip from the flooding
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 20, 2019, 09:54:42 AM
Outrageous amounts of rainfall being reported there. I have experienced 20" rainfall in a typhoon; can barely imagine 40+ inches.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 22, 2019, 07:24:49 AM
I'm not too confident in this MesoWest thing either.  Why would it report exactly the same temperature to the tenth for every reading during the hour except 5:53 which is the one reported on the WFO's Past 72 Hour Observations page where 67 degrees is recorded?

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]



(OK, that wording could be better but it's early and the coffee is cold.)

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: ocala on September 22, 2019, 08:34:05 AM
Fall weather creeping in early to Florida.
65 degrees this morning. Dam that feels good. Opened the windows to let that cool air in.
Dry air overhead so even the afternoons are comfortable.
In no time I'll be bitchin about it being too cold. :roll:
For now though it's good. :-)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 22, 2019, 11:34:29 AM
Last day of summer, and September has felt very much like summer here.

This morning, after 1.24" of much needed rain, the low of 55 felt like autumn is possible.  :-)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 22, 2019, 01:14:40 PM
As of this morning:  (Temp) DPTR FM NORMAL:   +6.2   (Precip) DPTR FM NORMAL:   -2.53 (Now at 26 days with no rainfall and counting).

Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: Bunty on September 22, 2019, 03:25:58 PM
While, fortunately, not at Texas sized proportions, there was an interesting rain train effect in Oklahoma last night, 9-22-2019, tracking from the southwest corner to the northeast corner of the state.  I got 2.04",  while closer to the center of the track four miles to the north of me got 4.05".  In that north and northwest areas, some stretches of major rural roads got flooded and had to be closed.   From a wet September, to no surprise Boomer Lake in north Stillwater went over the spillway again.    Rain is likely over with for now but rises to 60% on Tuesday.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rain9-22-2019.png)

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/wurain9222019.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 30, 2019, 05:46:47 PM
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
427 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2019

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH, KENTUCKY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH,
KENTUCKY, TODAY...SEPTEMBER 30TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91
SET IN 1998 AND 1953. WEATHER RECORDS IN PADUCAH BEGAN IN 1937.





RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2019

...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT PADUCAH, KENTUCKY,
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29TH...

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH,
KENTUCKY, YESTERDAY...SEPTEMBER 29TH. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 72
SET IN 1986. WEATHER RECORDS IN PADUCAH BEGAN IN 1937.

$$
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: DRoberts on September 30, 2019, 05:54:13 PM
Lots of warm air in many places today.

GID

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Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: CW2274 on September 30, 2019, 06:08:27 PM
With the strong ridge down south and the "already winter time trough" out west ](*,), no surprise on the temps. So far the pattern is looking just like late last year into earlier this year which basically killed our monsoon. Gimme a break. :roll:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Spring/Summer '19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 01, 2019, 07:18:24 AM
Ick!!!


Code: [Select]
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION:   PADUCAH KY
MONTH:     SEPTEMBER
YEAR:      2019

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 77.1   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   0.32   
DPTR FM NORMAL:   7.2   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -3.43   
HIGHEST:    97 ON 16    GRTST 24HR  0.26 ON 26-26     
LOWEST:     49 ON 24

Second year in a row that September was the most abnormally hot month of the year.

Also breaks the string of months with excess rainfall.