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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: WeatherHost on August 23, 2018, 04:57:26 AM

Title: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on August 23, 2018, 04:57:26 AM
Fall = S O N
Winter - D J F


Feeling Fall-ish this morning and September is only a week away now, believe it or not.  Won't be long before we're griping about cold and snow instead of heat and rain.





Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on August 23, 2018, 08:26:17 AM
NO. NO. NO. NO.

Do not go there. 

REDACT REDACT!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: spc fresno on August 23, 2018, 09:21:37 AM
 :lol: It's still in the mid/upper 90s everyday over here in CenCal. Fall seems very distant.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on August 23, 2018, 11:19:16 AM
Is this because there is Halloween candy at Target?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: spc fresno on August 23, 2018, 10:18:14 PM
Is this because there is Halloween candy at Target?
?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 01, 2018, 03:04:24 AM
And awaayyyy  we go!


7 Day forecast is every bit Summer ....  Sunny, low 71, high 91 every day.  Maybe their copy/paste got stuck?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: valleyweather on September 02, 2018, 07:08:56 AM
Here in Montreal, Canada, we had one of our warmest, driest summers in recent memory. The month has changed, the leaves are turning already, but it remains warm and muggy. Not a problem for me, last winter was almost 6 months long here, I'll take all the summer I can get!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on September 02, 2018, 07:52:33 AM
We had no prolonged soaking multi-day rains during April-May-June this year, which was unusual.  Mother nature had other ideas, though.  She scored a 2-0 lightning-related safety when the NU-Akron football game was delayed just after the kickoff.  The score held up when after 3 1/2 hours of continued nearby lightning the game was cancelled, an unheard of outcome in Cornhusker football history!

We are currently looking at a multi-day soaking rain in September, something also almost unheard of in these parts.

Here is my Sept 2-6 WxSim forecast:
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/Sept2-6Forecast-2018-09-02.png)

So far there has been minimal flooding...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 03, 2018, 08:45:57 AM
I see lincoln passed Valentine finally on rainfall for year due to the recent rain.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on September 05, 2018, 09:23:44 PM
A look at how Stillwater missed most of Wednesday evening's downpour, sparing it from another big flash flood.  A heavy thunderstorm popped up just to the south and southeast of Stillwater and hardly moved, while raining itself out.  The flash flood that didn't happen would have been extra bad, since the ground is already soaked from rain in the past several days.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stillwatermissesdownpour.png)

Meanwhile, a couple of counties away to the southwest in the Edmond/Oklahoma City areas, the same thing happened.  Here's how it looked in Oklahoma City. Chances for more rain remain in the forecast until Sunday.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/okcstorm2018.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on September 10, 2018, 12:49:41 AM
Finally,  a rainy week is up, and the clouds finally split Sunday afternoon for some missed sunshine.  Here's a look at 7 day rain amounts in Oklahoma.  My station got 2.90".  Some stations got a lot more, such as the one just to the south of me, which got 5.12".   10 day forecast not showing a return of the 90s. Much of Oklahoma is now drought free, including my area. 

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainamounts7day.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 10, 2018, 03:25:21 AM
^^  I had just shy of 2" Saturday from Gordy's passing visit.  North of us got 5+.

Grass is still brown though.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on September 10, 2018, 03:49:26 AM
^^  I had just shy of 2" Saturday from Gordy's passing visit.  North of us got 5+.

Grass is still brown though.

Grass never made it to brown here this summer and now is brighter green and needing mowed more than ever.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 16, 2018, 02:44:58 PM
If things keep on as they are and as forecast, September will be more above normal than both July and August.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 20, 2018, 07:20:35 PM
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
0426 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH KY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1955.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 22, 2018, 05:16:56 AM
So, the switch was flipped to Summer Heat the first of May and finally seems to have been flipped off again with forecast highs in the upper 60s showing.

Thoughts on Winter?  I like mild weather, no extremes either way, but I very rarely get what I want.

 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on September 22, 2018, 08:52:27 AM


With the temperature at 43 this morning, I can believe in fall coming.

Our NWS put this out yesterday. Map shows O N D and gives a little summary of the El Nino watch.

Two graphics on the site below. Select the "Long Range Outlook" on the right:

https://www.weather.gov/gid/weatherstory

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 22, 2018, 10:18:33 AM
In the 'we're never happy' category ....  we've been dry, really dry.  We need rain real bad.  But now it's raining and might do so on and off for a few days.  Now I'm annoyed I can't get things done outside so I'm out doing some of it in the rain.  Can't it just rain overnight and not during the daytime??

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on September 22, 2018, 02:22:19 PM
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
0426 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH KY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1955.

On the other hand, TV weatherman Mike Morgan said he thinks Thursday was the last day for highs in the 90s in Oklahoma City for the rest of the year.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on September 22, 2018, 10:23:57 PM
Welcome to fall in the Central time zone.
I can now feel comfortable posting in this thread
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 23, 2018, 05:43:01 AM
It's been raining on and off for most of 30 hours now and may continue to do so for the next few days.  Got my apple trees planted just in time I think.

Ground was so dry that most of the rain is being sucked up and there isn't much run off.  Plants are sucking up all they can which means I'll be mowing grass again for a while.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 23, 2018, 03:14:32 PM
Dug a hole today to set a post.  Down past 3-4 inches, it's bone dry and hard packed.  The inch of slow steady soaking rain hasn't done a lot for sub soil moisture.

 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 24, 2018, 07:46:08 PM
Frost mentioned for Wednesday morning. Forecast low 35°f not far away from first freeze. 

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on September 26, 2018, 08:04:54 AM
Low of 38 here at 7 a.m., and AWOS in town 39.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 26, 2018, 08:54:02 AM
35° here, I did see some frost on roofs, grass.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 26, 2018, 10:02:06 AM
Seeing low 40s in the extended forecast around 10/7-9.  Not sure if ti will verify.  I'd love it if that's as low as we got all winter, but that's just a pipe dream.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on September 26, 2018, 10:06:56 AM
It's summer again here in the northeast. 74°, dew point 73°. Very weird for the end of September (moreso the dew point than the temperature).
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on September 26, 2018, 01:53:08 PM
Bit of nippy air then for your location, Randy,  and mine. I have a strong feeling first killing frost here will be late this year.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JCA433 on September 26, 2018, 02:22:17 PM
I am located near the southern tip of Florida and the weather for September so far is hot and humid with average temperature over 80 F and average maximum temperature near 89 F.   September so far this year is only about 0.5 F cooler than July and August.  The maximum heat index most days this month are over 105 F.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 26, 2018, 03:19:52 PM
Bit of nippy air then for your location, Randy,  and mine. I have a strong feeling first killing frost here will be late this year.

NWS says our average for Valentine is September 28th. Since I've been here 4 years its landed around Oct 4th

 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on September 27, 2018, 12:38:30 PM
Average first frost date is 15 October, as I recall. We are about 260 miles south of you.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on September 27, 2018, 01:18:56 PM
As of yesterday, today was supposed to be Sunny and mid 70-ish.

As of today, it's been rainy and upper 50-ish.

How can they be that wrong?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on September 29, 2018, 06:54:50 AM
I am located near the southern tip of Florida and the weather for September so far is hot and humid with average temperature over 80 F and average maximum temperature near 89 F.   September so far this year is only about 0.5 F cooler than July and August.  The maximum heat index most days this month are over 105 F.
Same up here in Ocala only low to mid 90's every day.
Fall my butt.  :-)
Whats worse is looking at long range models there is no significant cool down coming.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on September 29, 2018, 02:11:22 PM
34 this morning. Would have been colder if the clouds did not move in.

Illeged Snow flakes in parts of the state. have not seen photo evidence yet.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on September 29, 2018, 08:11:23 PM
I don’t have a photo to show, but we had a few brief flurries here in north central Minnesota this afternoon.  Our overnight low was 24.6° and our high today 39°.   This was our area’s  first general frost after a spotty, light frost the night before.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 01, 2018, 05:04:59 PM
Roller coaster time of the year on the Great Plains this week:

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 01, 2018, 05:05:36 PM
16 days over 90 in September.  Same as August.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 01, 2018, 06:31:55 PM
No mention of Rosa from our Arizona friends so I will.
My son and his wife live in northern part of state.
I remember this happening before usually late September into October.
In 2010 a large amount of moisture moved up from south causing the mountains around Flagstaff to have a huge tornado outbreak, elevations 6800-8000' which is extremely rare for any tornadoes had 9 confirmed.

Here is the Wiki, I think was one of the most unusual weather events ever for Arizona.
 
I went on elk hunt in same area of tornadoes later that same year and it was amazing looking at the paths of downed trees some areas 300-400 yards wide going for 30+ miles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2010_Arizona_tornado_outbreak

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on October 01, 2018, 06:39:20 PM
Currently at 1.13" and in a lull right now. Looks like the dry slot south of me may overtake my neck of the woods so I may be pretty much done, we'll see. Certainly ain't complaining... \:D/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SkellyCA on October 01, 2018, 08:18:44 PM
Well wouldn't you know it. We are expecting our first rain here since April and I have my new Atlas just sitting around.I don't want to mount it until Wednesday maybe Thursday because I'm waiting for the lightning detector, wind extension and external battery pack to be delivered on Wednesday. I don't want to put it up just to take it down two days later.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 01, 2018, 11:47:31 PM
Another rainy spell headed for Oklahoma starting early next week.  Rosa isn't expected to affect Oklahoma weather but Sergio probably will.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainoct2018.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SkellyCA on October 02, 2018, 12:13:03 AM
The storm is turning north, so I may not get any rain after all. Oh well, maybe next month.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 03, 2018, 07:20:03 AM
I thought we were done with the 90s, but the record high of 90 for this date is now in jeopardy as is the record high low of 72 tonight and tomorrow morning.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 03, 2018, 10:30:03 PM
For Oklahoma City, Channel 9's TV weatherman maps out the expected rain in more general terms.  Much of the area from TX to the Great Lakes will have a good shot at rain this weekend.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/channel9wx.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 03, 2018, 11:44:33 PM
Recorded 51 mph gust as cold front moved through. Airport was higher as usual in 60's.
First freeze expected in morning already upper 30's before 11pm.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on October 04, 2018, 05:37:53 AM
69 yesterday morning. Haven't felt the 60's since May.
Still no cold front through next week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 04, 2018, 06:35:02 AM
Record high of 90 yesterday.  Poised for a record warm low this morning ...  now at 74.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 04, 2018, 08:19:45 AM
High temperature 95 at 4 p.m. and low temperature 41 this morning at 5:45 a.m. That is a 54 degree temperature range in 24 hours. Thought this was noteworthy.

I would imagine many observers saw similar ranges in the Central Plains.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 04, 2018, 11:14:03 AM
High temperature 95 at 4 p.m. and low temperature 41 this morning at 5:45 a.m. That is a 54 degree temperature range in 24 hours. Thought this was noteworthy.

I would imagine many observers saw similar ranges in the Central Plains.

83 to 30 on Nebraska /South dakota border. (53°)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on October 04, 2018, 03:13:39 PM
High temperature 95 at 4 p.m. and low temperature 41 this morning at 5:45 a.m. That is a 54 degree temperature range in 24 hours. Thought this was noteworthy.

I would imagine many observers saw similar ranges in the Central Plains.

83 to 30 on Nebraska /South dakota border. (53°)
54? That's impressive. Wonder what the record is for a 24 hour period.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on October 04, 2018, 03:22:30 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diurnal_temperature_variation
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 04, 2018, 03:56:18 PM
Spearfish South Dakota holds the fastest change.

Wiki:
World record temperature change
Spearfish holds the world record for the fastest recorded temperature change. On January 22, 1943 at about 7:30 a.m. MST, the temperature in Spearfish was −4°F (−20°C). The Chinook wind picked up speed rapidly, and two minutes later (7:32 a.m.) the temperature was +45 °F (+7 °C) above zero. The 49 °F or 27 °C rise in two minutes set a world record that still holds. By 9:00 a.m., the temperature had risen to 54 °F (12 °C). Suddenly, the chinook died down and the temperature tumbled back to −4 °F or −20 °C. The 58 °F or 32.2 °C drop took only 27 minutes. The sudden change in temperatures caused glass windows to crack and windshields to instantly frost over.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 04, 2018, 05:55:16 PM
Tied the Record of 90.  Record tomorrow is 89 which is also the forecast high.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on October 04, 2018, 08:34:43 PM
Tweet I sent out

https://twitter.com/RMSWeather/status/1047822747689279488

We had a 40 degree drop yesterday.

or
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 04, 2018, 09:10:38 PM
Reply to 54 degree temperature range at my station. That is quite a range, isn't it? I am using a Davis VP2 FA and the location is very country. No pavement near it, only grass.

Most range I have ever experienced. (I don't live near Spearfish, SD.  :-)

Here is a graphic from our NWS office in Hastings, NE. This office has the climatological records closest to me, but they are about 90 miles away. Nevertheless, it sort of backs up my observations of 95 for a high and 41 for the morning low.  Our high today was 44, after yesterday's high of 95 that is quite a range also.

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Thought it might be interesting.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 04, 2018, 09:25:44 PM
High in Valentine today was 39°.   :roll:

Gets little better Tomorrow except for night HS FB game forecast, Wouldn't be there except for cousins grandson is playing.

: Friday Night
 A 40 percent chance of rain before 1am. Patchy frost after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 31. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 04, 2018, 09:30:33 PM
Chilly. Not sure I am ready for the winter, but nature doesn't care.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 05, 2018, 12:29:08 PM
I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen 100% chance of rain in 4 years.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 05, 2018, 12:33:01 PM
I've seen it fairly often for Day 1, 2 or sometimes 3, not for Day 4.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 05, 2018, 07:06:12 PM
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
0431 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PADUCAH KY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 89 SET IN 1998.


Third day in a row.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 06, 2018, 02:49:47 AM
Tied the Record of 90.  Record tomorrow is 89 which is also the forecast high.

Got to 89 here on Friday.  OKC TV weatherman thinks we're finished with 80s until next spring.  I wouldn't want to guarantee that since November of 2017 had a couple of days with 82.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 07, 2018, 04:47:29 PM
Needing A/C in October due to multiple days of 90+ has to be some kind of level of criminal insanity.

The reds are records for the date:

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SkellyCA on October 07, 2018, 05:15:13 PM
It's windy here in the SF East Bay. WE are under a severe fire warning because of said wind. It's blowing the smoke down from the fires up north. I'm getting a pretty good dose of smoke. I almost forgot there were still burning
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SWX on October 07, 2018, 09:19:30 PM
This thread reminds me of how uninteresting the weather is here (outside of storms), we rarely see such large temperature swings, a 30 degree swing would be noteworthy, I couldn’t imagine a 50+ degree swing.

“Only” 80 today, which is warm for October, but hardly a record.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 07, 2018, 09:33:14 PM
Lot's of snow likely in forecast nothing heavy so put the snow stake out today.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 08, 2018, 03:58:26 AM
Here, there has been a flood watch that started early Sunday morning lasting through Tuesday evening.  A cold front going back and forth helps explain the wet situation.  I'm on the warm side as of Monday morning.  Have picked up .77", so far.  Where it's really been getting soaked is well to the south and west of me. 
(https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png)

Flood watch in dark green:
(https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 08, 2018, 05:26:45 AM
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Yuk.

Changing back to Fall this week though with highs in the 60s forecast for the weekend.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 08, 2018, 08:08:27 PM
A radar look at how the rain is training from west OKC to near the Kansas border as of Monday evening. As much as 2 to 3 inches an hour.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/raintrain.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 08, 2018, 08:14:21 PM
Winter Weather Advisory out.  Little early for some. 4" depth ground temperature still in 40's so will be short lived and just a taste of what's coming.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 09, 2018, 01:58:40 PM
So much for fall. Not positive but this may be 1st WS Warning issued anywhere in lower 48 this fall. 
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on October 09, 2018, 06:34:07 PM
So much for fall. Not positive but this may be 1st WS Warning issued anywhere in lower 48 this fall. 

I know I've seen at least one in MT. Maybe this was it:

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/10/02/noaa-winter-storm-warning-for-montana-18-22%e2%80%b3-of-snow-above-6500ft/ (https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/10/02/noaa-winter-storm-warning-for-montana-18-22%e2%80%b3-of-snow-above-6500ft/)

Maybe you are first at lower altitude.  :grin:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 09, 2018, 08:46:14 PM
So much for fall. Not positive but this may be 1st WS Warning issued anywhere in lower 48 this fall. 

I know I've seen at least one in MT. Maybe this was it:

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/10/02/noaa-winter-storm-warning-for-montana-18-22%e2%80%b3-of-snow-above-6500ft/ (https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/10/02/noaa-winter-storm-warning-for-montana-18-22%e2%80%b3-of-snow-above-6500ft/)

Maybe you are first at lower altitude.  :grin:

Missed that one.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 09, 2018, 11:21:45 PM
If not straight winds, EF0 and EF1 tornadoes did damage in parts of the OKC metro area on Tuesday morning as pictured below.  When the line arrived here, wind gusted up to 31 mph.  With 2.35" fallen, this rainy period is on its way out now as the cold front passes by and will stay passed this time.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpElU6fU0AAjPw3.jpg)

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sergio is expected to impact Oklahoma and north Texas weather this weekend.
(https://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/embed-lg/public/2018/10/09/hurricane-sergio-spaghetti-models.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on October 09, 2018, 11:59:00 PM
Don't usually see straight line winds put cars on their roof tops.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 10, 2018, 05:24:59 AM
Rare for sure but a small car and 100-130 mph downburst can toss them around easily.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 10, 2018, 02:54:05 PM
Picked up our first inch. Well below what was forecast.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 10, 2018, 03:15:22 PM
I don't mind snow, but I can't say that I am ready for it yet. Freeze warning here tonight. You are in winter, we are in fall.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SWX on October 11, 2018, 07:35:29 AM
Today should be our last day with a morning low of 70°F or greater until next year. :sad:

I don’t even want to think about winter, snow, and freezes. I hate it all. That snow stake looks very cool though, I think I want one lol.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 11, 2018, 08:02:47 AM
The return to Summer may finally be over.  To this point, October was ( DPTR FM NORMAL:  15.9 ), but the forecast now is to be below normal for the next week or two.   Daily highs of around 90 will change to around 60 with nightime lows falling from the low 70s to the low 40s.



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on October 11, 2018, 09:26:06 AM
The big anomaly for us over this summer and extending into the fall has been the number of days with dew points 70°F plus, including yesterday (73).

Once this cold front moves through and Michael zips by offshore, we're supposed to be in for some actual fall weather.

It's not quite apple-picking weather when you are dripping with sweat...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 11, 2018, 11:15:43 AM
One of those years leaves were still on trees most still green, others were turning, both are falling off trees rapidly today.  So much for fall colors it got down to 20° this morning with 4th freeze this month and another chance of snow 60% tonight.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 13, 2018, 07:05:43 AM
Not as sudden or extreme as some of you, but the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s have finally given way to the 60s with dewpoints in the 40s.

Early mornings are now in the 40s instead of the 70s like they were a week ago.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on October 13, 2018, 07:21:49 AM
Finally a taste of fall.
Temps and DP's in the upper 50's.
Yess!!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 13, 2018, 07:24:00 AM
From this morning's AFD, Sergio comes a'callin':

"WPC has us in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall during that time as well. Some of the moisture moving our way is tropical in nature from a system in the Pacific"


So, I got two from the Gulf this year and now one from the Pacific.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 13, 2018, 07:56:33 PM
Just a week ago, we were setting or tying record highs or record warm lows.  Today we're within a degree of the record cold high and the next couple of nights we could be flirting with record lows, though it doesn't look like any will be set.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 14, 2018, 05:29:50 AM
Winter storm warning few days ago we get 1" and advisory 3"+.  Even computer models need time to adjust into winter mode.
Was looking at ground temperature at 4" depth down to 40° this morning. Won't be surprised to see first teens tomorrow morning forecast has 21° currently. 

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 14, 2018, 07:40:35 AM
Hey, it's a new month called AugNov!!

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Yeah, I know it's not the 20th yet, but they tend to do some of their graphics to include future dates as forecast.


If you go back to the Spring/Summer thread, you'll find we did the opposite switch from March to June with a cold April and hot May.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SWX on October 14, 2018, 09:52:21 AM
Dropped down to 41°F this morning, too cold for me.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 14, 2018, 12:39:25 PM
Measured 3" on my snow board at 11:30 a.m. Right on what was forecast.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 14, 2018, 01:42:06 PM
Let's hope we don't have any more fronts as strong between now and March or we could all be in deep stuff!!!

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 14, 2018, 03:21:05 PM
Measured 3" on my snow board at 11:30 a.m. Right on what was forecast.

This is too early to go full winter mode.  Teens tonight mixed with some single digits weather office is saying for tomorrow morning. Thought we would melt more snow today but still 27 and wind at 2pm.  Our high temperature occurred at midnight 30°.  :shock:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on October 14, 2018, 03:26:26 PM
Finally a taste of fall.
Temps and DP's in the upper 50's.
Yess!!
and right back into summer. Temp 93 and DP 75.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on October 14, 2018, 03:44:54 PM
Fall? What's that? We went from the 100's two weeks ago to now the low 70's, but the rain is certainly welcome.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on October 16, 2018, 09:37:19 PM
Another wide temperature range today. High 70 and low this morning 24. 46 degree range. The Great Plains in autumn.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on October 16, 2018, 11:33:23 PM
Escaped an early freeze here with 36 degrees.  It looks like no more near freezing lows for the rest of October.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 17, 2018, 07:55:04 AM
37 this morning, coldest since April 30th.  Similar forecast for a few nights this week, but doesn't look like a freeze is imminent.  Our latest freeze date is 11/13 and we got to 11/10 a couple of years ago without one.  I wouldn't mind getting past the 13th though.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on October 17, 2018, 09:05:57 AM
Looks like our first freeze will be Thursday night / Friday morning. Going to get close tonight but forecast to hover just above the freezing mark. The only thing keeping NWS from issuing a frost advisory is that the winds will be howling as the cold front moves through.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 18, 2018, 04:17:39 PM
They keep changing the forecast (as they often do) and now it looks like a freeze is on the table for Sunday morning.
  My cracker jack box PWS showed something like 32.9 early this morning, but the official low was 40.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SWX on October 19, 2018, 11:58:59 AM
33° this morning with frost, one week ago the dew point was in the mid 70’s, too early for this.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on October 19, 2018, 03:15:18 PM
Last 3 days.
94/95/93.
It just won't end.
 :-(
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on October 19, 2018, 03:32:54 PM
Last 3 days.
94/95/93.
It just won't end.
 :-(
Need this Rex block to go away. Three weeks ago we were consistently in the 100's, this month, pretty much living in the low 70's.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 21, 2018, 06:13:15 AM
So after the hottest start to October on record, we get one of our earliest freezes in recent years.



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on October 21, 2018, 07:12:19 PM
Nice supercell NW of my area, thing's spinning like a top, couplet and all. We don't see them much here. Kinda surprised it wasn't tornado warned....
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 22, 2018, 07:28:39 AM
Noon yesterday, Oct 21:

Code: [Select]
21 11:53 Vrbl 3 10.00 Fair CLR 50 23 35% NA NA 30.40 1029.3

Temp 50, D/P 23, R/H 35%



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on October 22, 2018, 01:07:39 PM
First freeze last night in this suburb of Boston. About eight hours worth. Did what it was supposed to do to the buckwheat we planted as a cover crop in our planter boxes.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: vreihen on October 22, 2018, 01:20:21 PM
The thermometer here in the northeast dropped so quickly from 90 to 40 that you would think it passed a state trooper.....  :lol:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 22, 2018, 02:46:04 PM
October Freeze days West Valentine

Oct   2014- 8
        2015- 7
        2016- 4
        2017- 11
        2018- 10  as of Oct.22
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 28, 2018, 07:46:05 AM
Four days of around 70 this week with one of those possibly in the upper 70s.  High winds all day today.

Then dropping back into the 50s by the weekend.

Must be getting close to November.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 28, 2018, 09:04:47 AM
13th freeze month of October with most leaves now gone.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on October 28, 2018, 11:25:50 AM
First real cool morning, relatively speaking that is. 48 degrees.
Wife left the fans in the windows last night and the house was a chilly 60 degrees this morning.
Brrrr.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 28, 2018, 11:52:43 AM
First real cool morning, relatively speaking that is. 48 degrees.
Wife left the fans in the windows last night and the house was a chilly 60 degrees this morning.
Brrrr.

That is chilly we shoot for 65-67° at night. 60° lis ittle on cool side even for my blood.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 28, 2018, 04:44:52 PM
Guess I've never really paid that much attention, but it seems weird to me that so many leaves are still up.  Some trees are bare while others haven't really lost any at all.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 28, 2018, 06:22:53 PM
Here is fall foliage prediction for 2018. Way off for our area leaves are gone and we shouldn't hit peak color until November 12th.
https://smokymountains.com/fall-foliage-map/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JCA433 on October 28, 2018, 06:26:39 PM
Average temperature so far in October 2018 79.9 F with average high through OCT 28 88F and average low 72.6F.
Today was the coldest day so far this October with High 83F and low 62.8F
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 29, 2018, 06:39:31 AM
How can they be so far off with all the millions spent on technology and modeling?

Last Thursday, this was the 7 Day forecast:

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This is what showed yesterday morning which is what happened:


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I can understand how 7 to 10 day or longer out forecasts can be sketchy, but this was only 3-4 days.  They should be able to dial it in far better that close.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on October 31, 2018, 03:41:38 AM
OK, where'd they get the 80 from for the 6 hour high?

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SWX on October 31, 2018, 08:59:03 AM
OK, where'd they get the 80 from for the 6 hour high?

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The 80 occurred at some point(s) between the hourly updates.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 02, 2018, 03:31:16 AM
WOW, while going into Nov. from Oct. looks cool and rainy a large part of the time, still no first freeze expected here through Nov. 15.  Normal first freeze is early November.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: spc fresno on November 02, 2018, 11:47:26 AM
I'm getting tired of the stagnant weather we're having out here. On the bright side, we've had somewhat seasonable temperatures, on the other hand, it looks like no systems are going to come by until at least mid-November.  :?
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2018, 01:12:38 PM
Life's too short to live someplace you don't enjoy. As soon as I retired within a month I was moving. I do miss the beauty of northern Arizona, southern Utah but doesn't compare to Nebraska weather. Yes I'm the oddball most are moving to the Grand Canyon state not leaving. I get the dumb looks and are you insane question, when I say I moved from Arizona.... :lol:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 03, 2018, 08:01:46 AM
Broke our 18 day dry spell finally. (.18) for month of November now. Will be interesting how this winter plays out with the weak to moderate El Nino expected. Still 70% chance of development they say.
They have already revised November from being warmer to equal chance. I'm more convinced than ever they are just shooting in the dark with these predictions.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on November 03, 2018, 06:15:13 PM
Life's too short to live someplace you don't enjoy. As soon as I retired within a month I was moving. I do miss the beauty of northern Arizona, southern Utah but doesn't compare to Nebraska weather. Yes I'm the oddball most are moving to the Grand Canyon state not leaving. I get the dumb looks and are you insane question, when I say I moved from Arizona.... :lol:
That's not being an oddball, that's normal.
It's everyone else that's an oddball. :-)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 04, 2018, 06:23:46 AM
"Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 4am, then a chance of rain and ****. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 9 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. "


I had to block out the flaky white profanity.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on November 06, 2018, 07:08:08 PM
20 degrees below normal for the next week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 06, 2018, 08:22:51 PM
Forecast high of 24° (-4.4c) here Friday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 07, 2018, 11:53:33 AM
A bit of a taste of winter coming here also. 2-4" snow forecast for Thursday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 07, 2018, 01:02:32 PM
A bit of a taste of winter coming here also. 2-4" snow forecast for Thursday.

I saw that, SW Nebraska NE Colorado looks like bullseye.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 07, 2018, 09:52:35 PM
Looks like some changes tonight with snow spreading into SD and northern Nebraska too. Looks officially cold with high only 20° on Friday. Those teens for lows have to be on high side. Single digits I expect.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 09, 2018, 07:52:35 AM
Single digits and -13 windchill this morning.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 09, 2018, 09:37:23 AM
Balmy 24 with gusts to 20 currently.  Probably want to cancel the swim party.

We only got 1" of snow yesterday. NE got the lion's share.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 09, 2018, 12:04:09 PM
FREEZE WARNING HERE IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY... for the first time this season.  It covers nearly all of Oklahoma.  Low here may be down to 21.  Usual first freeze is around Nov. 3.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 09, 2018, 12:11:50 PM
For those who choose to pay any attention at all to the CPC, as of this moment in the space/time continuum, they're calling for the chill to be short lived with the one month and beyond showing 'above normal'.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: vreihen on November 10, 2018, 01:21:11 PM
We are in the upper 30's here in the mid-Hudson Valley of New York, and had two passing moderate snow squalls this morning.  No accumulation, but a reminder that winter is just around the corner.

I never remember the bulk of our leaves still being on the trees after Halloween, and it seems like the trees have been at peak color for a month now.....
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 10, 2018, 04:19:37 PM
Our Dewpoint this morning was 11?????

Code: [Select]

Date Time(cst) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. (ºF) Air Dwpt
10 06:53 N 7 10.00 Fair CLR 23 11
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 11, 2018, 05:15:57 PM
2 to 4 inches of snow expected in part of the mid section of the country, with higher amounts on the western side.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018111112/namconus_asnow_scus_16.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 11, 2018, 05:33:05 PM
No snow, but I'm already sick of the trough that's been sitting over the west, seemingly forever, absolutely zero Autumn here. Looks like I'll be turning on the heater about a month earlier than last year.  :roll:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 12, 2018, 03:37:17 PM
First snow of the season in my backyard, around 2 inches.  This is more snow than what fell last winter.  Oklahoma City had close to an inch of snow.  It's the most that city ever had on a Nov. 12.  Lows to get to the mid teens tonight.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snownov2018.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 13, 2018, 01:54:40 AM
As I look at the water vapor imagery, I cannot recall a trough digging as far south as this thing is doing in the west, it's damn near the ITCZ.
I suppose the good thing with this is that it's November and not January.   
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 13, 2018, 08:03:33 AM
First snow of the season in my backyard, around 2 inches.  This is more snow than what fell last winter. 

Maybe an inch in mine.  Fairly early, but I'm not sure if it's any kind of record.  All I want to see for the rest of the Winter though.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 13, 2018, 09:34:36 AM
20 degrees below normal this morning. 7 above; normal 27.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BigOkie on November 13, 2018, 01:44:27 PM
First snow of the season in my backyard, around 2 inches.  This is more snow than what fell last winter.  Oklahoma City had close to an inch of snow.  It's the most that city ever had on a Nov. 12.  Lows to get to the mid teens tonight.

(http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snownov2018.jpg)

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This was my backyard yesterday (in Tulsa, to your east) morning at about peak snowfall (mid morning).  As of right now most is gone as we have gotten above freezing.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 13, 2018, 02:12:18 PM
20 degrees below normal this morning. 7 above; normal 27.

Colder down yonder, had a balmy 10°. It was colder before midnight 9° and just didn't drop anymore with south wind so hovered between 10 and 12 into sunrise.
Noticed 4" soil temperature is below freezing now.

Cold Novembers for us doesn't usually tell the story of the winter to come. In fact one of our coldest turned out to be also one of the warmest winters and vise versa last year we were +4 and had a cold winter.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on November 13, 2018, 03:55:17 PM
Rewriting the record books in Florida. Another record high broken today with a high temp of 87.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 13, 2018, 04:40:44 PM
Rewriting the record books in Florida. Another record high broken today with a high temp of 87.
No surprise, one mans trough is another mans ridge, and I'm ready for a swap. We can barely get into the 60's here, and it's windier than all get-out.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 13, 2018, 07:32:57 PM
Forecast is for 2-4, maybe more.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 13, 2018, 07:35:08 PM
35 at midnight and has been below that ever since.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 15, 2018, 05:24:00 AM
I think I got 1, maybe a little more.  Grass and deck are white, a little on the concrete walk, but blacktop driveway is clear.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SWX on November 15, 2018, 10:47:05 PM
4 inches of snow today, was expecting a wintry mix at best. This was a very unusual event for November in the NYC area, too early and caught many off guard, no plows running so the region was effectively paralyzed like southern cities are in snow/ice.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on November 15, 2018, 11:25:32 PM
Our first snowstorm here is MA is overperforming.  At the high end of the forecast at my house now (6") and still falling. Probably 2-3 more hours before changeover to mix.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 16, 2018, 06:16:12 AM
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 16, 2018, 06:21:34 AM
And then, there is this:

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 16, 2018, 06:07:51 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/science/nasa-warns-long-cold-winter-could-hit-space-in-months-bringing-record-low-temperatures
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 16, 2018, 07:03:43 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/science/error-in-major-climate-study-revealed-warming-not-higher-than-expected
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 16, 2018, 10:20:32 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/science/error-in-major-climate-study-revealed-warming-not-higher-than-expected

Does that mean there's little truth to this?
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 16, 2018, 11:17:13 PM
 :lol: =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: PaulMy on November 22, 2018, 10:37:28 AM
Lowest temperature in 9 months, winter is early...
http://www.komokaweather.com/weather/maxmin.php
http://www.komokaweather.com/weather/thisdate.php

Enjoy,Paul

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 23, 2018, 03:56:36 PM
Oh Goody.  I'm overjoyed, can't you tell?

By Saturday evening, this same upper level system reaches the Central U.S.
inducing a low at the surface across the central High Plains. As this low
tracks eastward, a winter storm is likely to develop by Saturday night and
quickly strengthen on Sunday from parts of the Central Plains to the
middle Mississippi Valley. Significant snowfall is possible, and winter
storm watches are in effect from Nebraska/northern Kansas to northwest
Illinois for the potential of 6 inches or more of snow. In addition to
heavy snow, strong winds will accompany this system resulting in the
potential for blizzard conditions in the hardest-hit areas. This
combination of heavy snow and strong winds may lead to power outages and
will certainly make for potentially dangerous travel conditions to end the
Holiday Weekend. This same system will also bring heavy snowfall to
portions of the Great Lakes region by Monday.

Showers will continue pushing eastward tonight from the Gulf
Coast/Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley/Southeast ahead of upper level
troughing. By Saturday morning, rainfall intensity across the Mid-Atlantic
and central Appalachians will begin to ramp up as a surface low develops
off the Southeast Coast. The surface low tracks northward along the East
Coast on Saturday, with the precipitation shield following suit reaching
the New England by Saturday evening. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall/flash flooding from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
Given the proximity of the surface low to the coast, most of the
precipitation will be in the form of rain, except in the higher terrain of
the central and northern Appalachians where light freezing rain
accumulations are possible. Generally, up to a tenth of an inch of ice is
forecast with winter weather advisories in effect from western North
Carolina to western Pennsylvania.


http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 23, 2018, 06:27:11 PM
Afternoon discussion out of North Platte they are kicking around the idea of upgrading upcoming winter storm to blizzard. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 24, 2018, 06:40:12 AM
Jackson hole Wy. live stream of snowstorm this morning. Volume works if you unmute.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 25, 2018, 08:51:03 AM
CoCoRaHS observation at 7 this morning

Visibility 1/4-1/3 mile
Temp 25
Wind sustained average 20.
Highest gust 45
Light snow, blowing snow
Snow accumulation 1.5-2"

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 25, 2018, 01:47:48 PM
CoCoRaHS observation at 7 this morning

Visibility 1/4-1/3 mile
Temp 25
Wind sustained average 20.
Highest gust 45
Light snow, blowing snow
Snow accumulation 1.5-2"

About the same up here. .23" moisture, 1.7" snow, .08" fell as rain, .15 as snow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on November 25, 2018, 05:51:41 PM
As of now  16 inches of snow in Osceola, Iowa. More to fall.

Southeast Nebraska, southern Iowa, Northern Missouri, Eastern Kansas is at a standstill. Moving east to Illinois.

Glad the Chiefs did not play today. The game may have been cancelled until Monday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on November 25, 2018, 07:44:46 PM
Apparently it's name is Bruce.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: vreihen on November 25, 2018, 08:35:21 PM
Glad the Chiefs did not play today. The game may have been cancelled until Monday.

As a Bills fan, I can tell you that a little bit of snow rarely stops a football game in Buffalo!

From November 2014, via the local media:

(https://images.hvtraffic.com/images/2017/09/20/20170920012910-2538247f.jpg)

(https://images.hvtraffic.com/images/2017/09/20/20170920012909-b5764b58.jpg)

(https://images.hvtraffic.com/images/2017/09/20/20170920012908-35e2b3a2.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on November 25, 2018, 08:57:46 PM
This would have happened during the game. Most people would have spent the night in the parking lot. MO does a good job with roads.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: W Thomas on November 27, 2018, 07:34:56 PM
Seems like it went from fall to winter overnight here #-o  Already had a semi major icing event that put us in the dark for 3 days. Generator was fine until we ran out of fuel and was unable to get any :-(
Been quite a few years since I remember a Winter Storm Warning this early,with the exception of Superstorm Sandy a few years back.

Previously our home was in a fairly tranquil weather location but since we moved up here in the mountains it seems like it has rained at least every other day. My season rainfall so far is showing 49.30 which right off sounds high but the more I think about it the more I agree! Back in the summer we were getting easily 3-4" a week!  And they said this never happened till I moved here!  Kinda makes me wonder :?

If we get as much snow as rain I might as well check out now LOL!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 28, 2018, 04:51:05 PM
This is always worth watching. Still early though and models have been little flaky for this area. 5-9" current thinking
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: wxman1952 on November 28, 2018, 10:53:13 PM
This is always worth watching. Still early though and models have been little flaky for this area. 5-9" current thinking
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Always good to see this on the horizon. We had a Winter Storm watch then Warning last Sunday. Ended up with 6" heavy wet snow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 29, 2018, 05:50:34 AM
This was the 00z run of Euro model. It continues to put some impressive snowfall numbers down in middle of Nebraska.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 29, 2018, 08:47:49 AM
You are in that too. Might be a good one for somebody. NWS in Hastings continues to mention the southward shift of the European model.

We missed the heavy snow last week. It went east of us. Now this one north of us. But the winter is young.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 29, 2018, 11:54:16 AM
Noticed that too, the global Euro only updates twice a day however while the other models US forecasters use update 4X and are sticking to guns.  Here is what North Platte latest thinking is. If this comes through even though less than Euro amounts we will have snow cover through much of winter, impacting temperatures several degrees lower all winter with ground snow cover.
Normally we don't see snows 1 foot range until spring storms hit and melt away after few days.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 29, 2018, 01:29:30 PM
Latest from HSI discussion 11:50 a.m.

FWIW the 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM have stepped in the direction of the last
3 runs of the EC. NAM/GFS QPF`s are heavier than the 06Z runs...
particularly E of Hwy 281. We will probably be adding to our WS
watch with the afternoon fcst pckg...but this depends on
collaboration with neighboring offices.

Wish we would get a nice snow down here this winter.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 29, 2018, 03:53:16 PM
Latest NAM just came across to public has Valentine at around 20 inches. I also noticed the EURO heaviest has slide west and south some now near North Platte.

Nam:model 1800z
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 29, 2018, 04:01:36 PM
Here is the latest euro 6 hrs older than NAM however above. Bullseye near North Platte. Will be interesting if GFS starts trending west also on next run.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 29, 2018, 04:44:27 PM
That same system could bring us 70 or more on Saturday followed by a drop to the mid 30s by Wednesday.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 29, 2018, 05:08:52 PM
Latest NAM just came across to public has Valentine at around 20 inches. I also noticed the EURO heaviest has slide west and south some now near North Platte.

Nam:model 1800z
This low is pretty potent with a decent cold core....maybe some thundersnow??? =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on November 29, 2018, 06:17:57 PM
Sorry about your WX guys and gals. It was 75+ and partly sunny here today (been below average lately). Headed for 80+ deg F and sunny rest of the week. On Unisys composite/sat/surface national page it looked warmer than S Florida.
Snow? Whut dat?   :twisted:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 30, 2018, 08:28:11 AM
Valentine, best get some extra bread and bring in the brass monkeys. 12-18" is a good amount of snow.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2018, 09:27:57 AM
Valentine, best get some extra bread and bring in the brass monkeys. 12-18" is a good amount of snow.

Good advice, worried about power outages in these rural areas mainly for weather station going offline  ...:lol:
I've spent many days camping in mountains so have plenty of cold weather gear and backup heat sources to keep pipes thawed should it be over extended period.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2018, 09:53:23 AM
EURO had the storm pegged from getgo, pretty amazing how well that model does. This was the midnight run last night. The other models are trending toward the EURO. The NAM did well too, was a little more north and east as well but with higher amounts putting Valentine near 18-20". The other American model GFS is starting to come around but was still putting a big chunk in SE South Dakota but forecasters are generally ignoring it.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on November 30, 2018, 10:52:15 AM
Euro was a Cadillac of models when it was developed. Don't think NOAA was given the budget to develop on a similar scale, but that is IMHO. You are right about it being right on from the start. Our local weather offices nailed the storm last week too.

Think of the panic this storm would cause in the East.

I only hope (in vain I am afraid) that the 4" line for Phillips might be right. ATPT, HSI isn't even issuing us a WWA.

Just nudge that storm 50 miles south?  ;)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2018, 11:47:21 AM


Think of the panic this storm would cause in the East.


Wall to wall coverage as always.  Sure they will have one or more before winters over.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 30, 2018, 06:51:18 PM
Tornado watch out for much of Oklahoma.
(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0429_radar.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 30, 2018, 07:04:01 PM
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on November 30, 2018, 07:55:29 PM
21 out of 30 days below 'normal'.  7th coldest November on record.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2018, 08:13:14 PM
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

That's what they've been saying, being such a weather nerd I should know more about what "negative tilt" means.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 30, 2018, 08:13:20 PM
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

Aaron Tuttle is covering the storms on Facebook as they are now moving across the Oklahoma City metro.  Only low level severity, so far.

https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/218596922386037/?notif_id=1543462132589816&notif_t=live_video (https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/218596922386037/?notif_id=1543462132589816&notif_t=live_video)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 30, 2018, 08:57:22 PM
Yikes, the base of the trough is taking a negative tilt, certainly more spring/summer looking than the beginning of December. Hope folks that think this time of year that this can't happen........  8-[

Aaron Tuttle is covering the storms on Facebook as they are now moving across the Oklahoma City metro.  Only low level severity, so far.

https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/218596922386037/?notif_id=1543462132589816&notif_t=live_video (https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/218596922386037/?notif_id=1543462132589816&notif_t=live_video)

LOL, Tuttle got bored with how the weather was doing and signed off. 

The storm currently moving through here isn't rated severe.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on November 30, 2018, 11:03:44 PM
PDS from apparent wedge far eastern OK. Big debris signature.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on November 30, 2018, 11:31:53 PM
PDS from apparent wedge far eastern OK. Big debris signature.

Yeah, there has been a tornado there.  Haven't heard if any towns hit.  Tornado watch was canceled here.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 01, 2018, 04:59:16 AM
Well this spring like storm is acting like one for sure. Took until 3:15AM to change over to snow. Probably lost 4" in form of rainfall.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 01, 2018, 08:49:57 AM
Very much like a spring storm, yes. We had thunder/lightning last night and .87" of rain.

Turned to light snow (temporarily) before dawn.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on December 01, 2018, 12:04:00 PM
Down here in South Texas, we're getting the kind of FROPA this morning that changes the WX from 'not too bad' into fantastic.

It had been mid 70degs recently (overnights ~60), but the RH and dewpoints were a bit sticky. This dry front blows in starting a few hours ago, and the temperature is quickly rising, and the RH/DPs are falling off a cliff.
73deg F and climbing (headed for 80+?), RH down to ~28%, dewpoint ~40deg F.
And the wind, WNW, gusts to 43.4mph, sustained ~28mph. FROPA blew the partial cloud cover away, nothing but blue skies.
Can't hardly get better than this.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on December 01, 2018, 07:29:35 PM
snowing now. about 1-2 here. More to the south. May be around 4-5 by tomorrow morning.
Just got my snowblower back from a tune up. So tomorrow it will be a crank up and use it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 03, 2018, 05:19:57 PM
Story of the damages from tornado in eastern Oklahoma during Friday night with drone video.

https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-storms-leave-catastrophic-damage-in-eastern-oklahoma (https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-storms-leave-catastrophic-damage-in-eastern-oklahoma)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 03, 2018, 05:57:41 PM
Story of the damages from tornado in eastern Oklahoma during Friday night with drone video.

https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-storms-leave-catastrophic-damage-in-eastern-oklahoma (https://ktul.com/news/local/severe-storms-leave-catastrophic-damage-in-eastern-oklahoma)
Well, that explains the "big debris signature", quite the mess. I'm guessing EF3 at it's peak.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 03, 2018, 11:23:01 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image4.png?a0600a98ddb8756e898130ec9bb25777)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 04, 2018, 05:59:44 AM
 Euro vs US GFS
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 05, 2018, 01:13:24 AM
Pre White Christmas coming to Oklahoma.  Snow amounts for Oklahoma projected for this weekend.  Euro model:

(https://stillwaterweather.com/images/snowdec2018.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 05, 2018, 06:33:39 PM
Oklahoma meteorologist Aaron Tuttle's take on the winter storm coming to much of Oklahoma:  https://aarontuttleweather.com/2018/12/04/winter-storm-what-you-want-to-know-details-and-snow-totals/ (https://aarontuttleweather.com/2018/12/04/winter-storm-what-you-want-to-know-details-and-snow-totals/)  Most of the Texas panhandle is also under a winter storm watch.

Winter Storm Watch  for much of Oklahoma:
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Washita - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Fri, 12/7 6:00am    Updated: Wed, 12/5 5:27pm    Urgency: Future
Expires: Sun, 12/9 12:00am    Severity:  Moderate     Certainty: Possible
 
Details:

...Winter Storm Expected Friday morning through Saturday
Evening...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts of
at least 6 inches. Ice accumulations up to three tenths of an
inch are possible.
* WHERE...The heavier snow accumulations will mainly be across
northern and western Oklahoma. The heavier ice accumulations
are expected to extend from southwest Oklahoma into central
Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City.
* WHEN...From Friday late morning through Saturday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
across portions of the area due to the ice. Road conditions will
vary across Oklahoma and western north Texas, depending on
ground temperatures and the rate of accumulation of snow and
ice. Ice may accumulate on bridges and overpasses, even where
main roads do not freeze.

Information:

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Oklahoma counties covered in blue:

(https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on December 06, 2018, 07:06:51 AM
Where the skies cleared this morning in northwestern Minnesota, temperatures dipped to 9 below.  But here in the north central part of the state, the clouds linger, and the temperature is 15-20 degrees warmer.   Still, I welcome the gradual clearing and colder temps coming our way later today, because the change will usher in a string of mostly sunny days, something we have lacked during the past couple of months. A Twin Cities TV weathercaster said last evening that this has been the cloudiest autumn in 35 years.

A farmer friend once told me that his mother, who grew up in Germany, referred to these stretches of cold, gray, cloudy days in the weeks before Christmas as “Advent weather.”  Whatever one calls it, I will be glad to see some “cold sunshine” take over.  A winter afternoon walk in our woods with my dog always seems better when the sky is blue.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 06, 2018, 08:19:30 PM
LOL, TV weatherman has greatly downgraded the big winter storm for this weekend.  For instance, Stillwater to get .3", instead of 4.5".  The reason why is temps aren't expected to get as cold as thought.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/images/snowdowngradeddec2018.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 08, 2018, 09:39:06 AM
First below zero of this winter.
Valentine, Miller Field (United States) -4.0°F

Still, have snow from last weekend storm.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 08, 2018, 10:31:44 AM
I hate snow.

I hate zero and below.

I'm sure I've not seen my last of either though.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 08, 2018, 11:01:35 AM
In town, roads are still ice covered in areas for those that have never driven on slippery roads you learn what antilock brakes are all about.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on December 08, 2018, 11:32:48 AM
I hate snow.

I hate zero and below.

I'm sure I've not seen my last of either though.
Please do not move to Minnesota. We thank you.  ;)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 08, 2018, 04:39:18 PM
"Today, I wanted to crawl in my bed and hide." KFOR-4  meteorologist Emily Sutton embarrassed about forecast for 3-4" of snow in Oklahoma City this weekend, which went total bust.  However, the southern TX panhandle, Lubbock, got 10".  The storm's low was set to track through the middle of Oklahoma, I-40, but changed to tracking 30 miles south of the Red River. It's rare to see such an abrupt change in a storm in such a short of a period. We went from a massive snowstorm for much of western and northern parts of Oklahoma to near zero precipitation for much of the state. But while at Wal-Mart on Wednesday,  the bread, milk and other food sales were sure  well up.

(http://okie.world/photos/emily.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 08, 2018, 05:31:43 PM
NOAA office here doesn't concern themselves with ratings or ad revenue, so .....

"National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

A significant southward shift has occurred in the model forecast
tracks over the past 24 hours.  ..."


No French Toast on their faces.  This time.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 08, 2018, 08:03:30 PM
Can't really blame the TV meteorologist when the main models were pointing for a different track. Sometimes, however, its good to hold off on winter storm watches if model deviation exists.
North Platte had something similar, not a total bust but even issued a winter storm warning for 6-8" and only ended up with 1".
Models seem to be a little off with our last storm forecasting colder temperatures and 12-18" snow we got more rain and only 6".  It was an unusual spring type storm with negative tilt for this time of year.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 08, 2018, 09:03:33 PM
Granted, the impact of snow vs rain is completely different, but remember, we're only talking 1 inch of snow (equates to 0.10" of rain normally) vs 6" of snow which is 0.60" of rain. Where exactly will that snow line be? How many of you would truly complain about them missing a QPF of one half inch. Prediction stuff ain't easy.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 08, 2018, 11:18:28 PM
Forecasting amounts, especially snow, remains a very tricky/difficult task. It may remain so. Some meteorologists feel that forecasting amounts for a location will never be possible. Of course "never" is a dangerous word.

Valentine, the storm that gave you less snow and more rain was the same one that our NWS got just right for us in northern KS. At the same time, they missed by many inches for their NE area.

Is winter forecasting more difficult than summer?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 09, 2018, 05:35:20 AM


Is winter forecasting more difficult than summer?

I think so. And winter is when most people pay attention to the forecast because of the impacts from freezing weather. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on December 09, 2018, 09:02:29 AM
Any reports from NC / VA / etc.?  SERIOUS snowfall...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: miraculon on December 09, 2018, 11:15:34 AM
Quote
Any reports from NC / VA / etc.?  SERIOUS snowfall...

On GREarth and GRLevel3, I see 16" in Watauga County in NC. I also see 12-15" reports elsewhere in the area.

Here in NE Lower Michigan, we have an army of snowplows to attack the white stuff, but I would guess that they are not equipped for this kind of thing in that area.

Greg H.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 10, 2018, 07:14:56 PM
CPC and some of the other crystal ball types sites are hinting at a fairly significant warmup beginning towards the end of this week.  Are your local NWS sites taking that trend?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 10, 2018, 11:15:17 PM
While our local NWS hasn't pointed a big warm up, the temperatures and the discussion all tend toward above average temperatures for this  area. The range will be mid 40s to even a low 50s or two over the next 7 days. I do not see any mention of impending change.

South central NE and north central KS is my area.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: alanb on December 10, 2018, 11:42:25 PM
While our local NWS hasn't pointed a big warm up, the temperatures and the discussion all tend toward above average temperatures for this  area. The range will be mid 40s to even a low 50s or two over the next 7 days. I do not see any mention of impending change.

South central NE and north central KS is my area.
I wish we would get that warm up in east central IA. It would give me a chance to clean up the rest of the leaves that fell late.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 11, 2018, 09:56:45 AM
CPC and some of the other crystal ball types sites are hinting at a fairly significant warmup beginning towards the end of this week.  Are your local NWS sites taking that trend?

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Just passing this along
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 14, 2018, 01:26:22 AM
As I check some local obs, there's a RAWS ~8200' in the Catalina Mountains that's checking in with a dew point of -35F. :shock: Guess there's some dry air aloft.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 15, 2018, 03:45:39 AM
So far, Winter has kind of a see-saw, cold for a while, then warm.  Some people got dumped on.  Some more than once.  Next two weeks look warm-ish for most.

Thoughts on Jan-Feb?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 15, 2018, 06:32:21 AM
Why has it been raining almost constantly for over two days even when nothing shows on radar?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 15, 2018, 09:27:13 AM
Quite a stagnant weather pattern across this area of the country. Highs in the 50 degree range and lows in the mid teens to 20 range. Clear skies. Very little wind. Reminds me of a forecast from New Mexico or AZ.  :-)

Good travel weather for Christmas in this area seems likely.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 15, 2018, 10:13:18 AM
Nice little rain storm yesterday. 5.12.
NWS Jax said 3-4 with locally higher amounts so they were pretty close.
That's a Cocorahs measurement. The Davis said 4.40.
Puts me at 59.89  so I have a decent chance at 60 inches for the year.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 16, 2018, 03:44:07 PM
For a place that touts sunshine 350 days a year, you'd sure as hell have a hard time proving it. I think I've seen the sun maybe three times in the last six weeks, if not longer. I've been here 30 years and never recall soooo much cloud cover for soooo long. I believe someone posted the same thing a few weeks ago, but I think they were back east, I would expect that.
Change is a comin' though, finally we get a ridge later in the week, temps pushing 80F. \:D/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 16, 2018, 04:00:28 PM
For a place that touts sunshine 350 days a year, you'd sure as hell have a hard time proving it. I think I've seen the sun maybe three times in the last six weeks, if not longer. I've been here 30 years and never recall soooo much cloud cover for soooo long. I believe someone posted the same thing a few weeks ago, but I think they were back east, I would expect that.
Change is a comin' though, finally we get a ridge later in the week, temps pushing 80F. \:D/
Eh.
Sunshine is overrated. I'll take cloudy over sunshine every time.   
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 16, 2018, 04:11:58 PM
For a place that touts sunshine 350 days a year, you'd sure as hell have a hard time proving it. I think I've seen the sun maybe three times in the last six weeks, if not longer. I've been here 30 years and never recall soooo much cloud cover for soooo long. I believe someone posted the same thing a few weeks ago, but I think they were back east, I would expect that.
Change is a comin' though, finally we get a ridge later in the week, temps pushing 80F. \:D/
Eh.
Sunshine is overrated. I'll take cloudy over sunshine every time.
Normally I'd completely agree, because it's always sunny here, but not this season...Jeez, I think I'm back in Vermilion....
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 16, 2018, 05:10:38 PM
For a place that touts sunshine 350 days a year, you'd sure as hell have a hard time proving it. I think I've seen the sun maybe three times in the last six weeks, if not longer. I've been here 30 years and never recall soooo much cloud cover for soooo long. I believe someone posted the same thing a few weeks ago, but I think they were back east, I would expect that.
Change is a comin' though, finally we get a ridge later in the week, temps pushing 80F. \:D/
Eh.
Sunshine is overrated. I'll take cloudy over sunshine every time.
Normally I'd completely agree, because it's always sunny here, but not this season...Jeez, I think I'm back in Vermilion....
Hear that!
We had some cool, cloudy, rainy conditions here recently. Reminded me of northern Ohio.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 16, 2018, 05:25:40 PM
BTW, another good win for the Brownies, at this rate, they may take the division!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 16, 2018, 05:25:49 PM
If I had my druthers, I'd choose in between somewhere.  Enough broken clouds to keep the bright Sun out of my eyes at least part of the time.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 17, 2018, 06:32:55 PM
Check this out. AFD from Jacksonville Florida issued by the San Juan PR office.
Crazy stuff.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 17, 2018, 06:45:11 PM
 :???: I get that it's going to be Arizona dry, but why is JAX showing San Juan's AFD, they're well over 1000 miles apart? Not only, who's drying out, Florida or PR?  :?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 17, 2018, 07:01:59 PM
It's the Jax AFD issued by San Juan.
I could see if the office was down because in the past it's happened before and  I think it was Melbourne that issued the AFD.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on December 17, 2018, 07:25:44 PM
It's the Jax AFD issued by San Juan.
I could see if the office was down because in the past it's happened before and  I think it was Melbourne that issued the AFD.
Never heard of such a thing. This is just plain weird. What's wrong with the Jax WFO?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 22, 2018, 08:51:00 AM
CPC Crystal Ball hinting at a January deep freeze.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 22, 2018, 09:08:18 AM
Speaking of deep freeze today back in 1989 Valentine Ne. reached its coldest temperature ever recorded -39°F.  ;)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on December 22, 2018, 10:37:06 AM
CPC Crystal Ball hinting at a January deep freeze.

That would be for the interior SE US. Western 1/3 looking likely above average temps.  Equal chances above/below normal for everywhere else.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 22, 2018, 12:26:48 PM
2.87 from the latest front.
That's 8 inches of rain in the last week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 25, 2018, 06:06:30 AM
Major winter storm on track. 8-12" snow total for Valentine very possibly along with forecasters confidence going up with upper-air sampling of the storm overnight making for a powerful negatively tilted system which was what ECMWF (EURO) model has been suggesting for a week.

EURO solution.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 25, 2018, 09:32:21 AM
Y'all just keep that silliness for your own selfs.  I don't want it.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 25, 2018, 11:36:08 AM
Y'all just keep that silliness for your own selfs.  I don't want it.

One person's silliness is another's rationality, that's why we live in different areas. I'm retired and there's not enough money to get me to move into a place with boring weather. Did it for 60 years the next whatever left I have is where Its fun.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on December 25, 2018, 12:16:28 PM
Major winter storm on track. 8-12" snow total for Valentine very possibly along with forecasters confidence going up with upper-air sampling of the storm overnight making for a powerful negatively tilted system which was what ECMWF (EURO) model has been suggesting for a week.

EURO solution.
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NWS-Duluth has issued a winter weather watch for this storm with the same snow amounts possible in northeast Minnesota.  If the snow materializes, it will provide needed ground insulation to keep septic systems from freezing up this winter. Snow cover is spotty in our area right now, and without more snow for insulation, stretches of subzero weather could cause some unprotected septic systems to freeze up, especially at lake cabins and seasonal homes where the systems aren’t in continuous use.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 25, 2018, 06:12:12 PM
A lot of pink 7 states.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 25, 2018, 06:15:16 PM
A lot of pink 7 states.
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Yehaww!
Enjoy.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on December 25, 2018, 08:31:15 PM
If this holds-It will be  a bust for me. Wintry mix. Hazardous winter outlook.

I'm OK with this. '
Looks like a big cut off between snow and no snow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 26, 2018, 03:26:48 PM
An unusual December precipitation event for this location.

.68" in the Davis at the present time, which means that we have received more than the average December precipitation in this one event. Temperatures above freezing. Average precipitation is around .55" for the month.

And I don't need to shovel it.  ;)

I bet ValentineWeather will be doing some shoveling.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 26, 2018, 04:07:01 PM
Probably, but looking the latest model runs system is sliding heaviest to the east about 50-70 miles so might only get 4-8" instead of 8-14".  The wrap around on Thursday may change that idea however.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 26, 2018, 05:55:26 PM
Quite a rainy day today, 12/26, in Oklahoma. Much of the mid section of the country is included.  Oklahoma City has never had so much rain before on Dec. 26th.   It's to conclude with a line of storms from Texas coming through around 10pm, assuming it holds up.  After that colder with no more precip.  likely through next week.

(https://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif)

(http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 27, 2018, 08:01:55 AM
Just what we need.  Another inch or more of rain on top of already swollen rivers.  We were partially flooded in at this time last year.  Maybe going for a repeat?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 27, 2018, 08:04:35 AM
Snow was a bust here. Second time this winter, ugh!.
Bitter cold this morning winds gusting into 40 mph range and 12°F. It's paradise.  \:D/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 27, 2018, 08:12:49 AM
Wind advisory here too, 30-40 or more gusts.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on December 27, 2018, 08:55:59 AM
wet snow and rain. So wet it clogged up my snowblower. Hit it with the space heater later.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 27, 2018, 11:07:31 AM
Yep, the whole system dug to the east further than models originally predicted. We woke up to blizzard warning here after no headlines at all yesterday.

Meteorologist I communicate with says he doubts that forecasting snow amounts will ever be real/totally accurate. The science has a ways to go.

It is a cold one, and windy.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 27, 2018, 01:12:25 PM
Agree the science just isn't there yet for winter storms.
Funny my rancher cousin was crowing about the storm falling apart and she just texted me she may have crowed to early,  the green radar return is working back across HW83 and she reports heavy snow. The ranch is southeast of red dot Valentine about 38 miles.

Current temperature here 12° winds gusting to 30mph with light snow.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on December 27, 2018, 01:58:33 PM
Just what we need.  Another inch or more of rain on top of already swollen rivers.  We were partially flooded in at this time last year.  Maybe going for a repeat?

Here, we needed the rain to keep a drought from establishing itself as it has turned abnormally dry.  Total rain here for 2018 is at 32.61".   Average is 36.71".  Contrast that to Oklahoma City, just a couple counties away, where 2018 stands at no. 7 for most rain at 45.48".   Dec. 26 rain there was 2.72", a record breaker for that day.  Formerly it was 1.60".

(https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_ok_trd.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 27, 2018, 02:47:49 PM
ValentineWeather, We had a band of moderate snow that snuck in here too; gave us a quick 1 or 2 inches (hard to say with the wind), and reduced visibility to 1/8 mile or less for and hour or two.

I would guess we have no more than 3 inches snow.

But I had 2.19" ice/rain in the cylinder at 7 a.m. today, 24 hr total.  In any case, a lot of precip for December where our average is around .55 for the month. Helps replenish ground water!f

Cold snap coming for New Year's Eve.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 27, 2018, 04:18:02 PM
Here is a snow ratio chart you can use when the wind is blowing making normal measurements impossible. Example today air temp 10-14°, .03" moisture is equivalent to approx 0.9" snowfall.

https://eldoradoweather.com/current/misc/snow-to-water.html
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 27, 2018, 04:39:23 PM
Here, we needed the rain to keep a drought from establishing itself as it has turned abnormally dry.  Total rain here for 2018 is at 32.61".   Average is 36.71".  Contrast that to Oklahoma City, just a couple counties away, where 2018 stands at no. 7 for most rain at 45.48".   


As of yesterday, we're at 59".  Normal is 48" to that date.

Don't know the total for today yet.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 28, 2018, 08:30:56 AM
This site does a 2 week forecast for your area once you set the location:  https://www.timeanddate.com/weather

They seem to model hug quite a bit since the forecasts beyond 7 days can vary widely as you refresh the site day by day.  Overall, it's reasonably accurate if you don't take it too seriously.  Right now mine is showing a cold snap for the first few days of January, then moderating quite a bit through the 11th.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on December 28, 2018, 02:56:28 PM
The snowstorm has moved east, leaving this area with 12 inches or so of new snow.  The sky is supposed to clear today, and with it the temperature will plummet overnight to around -14.  With all the new snow, snowmobile enthusiasts are happy.  So are the local businesses that cater to them.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 28, 2018, 03:45:40 PM
The snowstorm has moved east, leaving this area with 12 inches or so of new snow.  The sky is supposed to clear today, and with it the temperature will plummet overnight to around -14.  With all the new snow, snowmobile enthusiasts are happy.  So are the local businesses that cater to them.

Not fair only got a couple inches, below zero tonight here also. How much below as always depends on if we get good radiational cooling. Current winds are still blowing 20+ range hopefully they will decouple after sundown. 

Some areas east of us picked over a foot.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 28, 2018, 03:52:45 PM
Relatively balmy 6 above forecast for us, still below normal though. We have just enough snow on the ground to keep temperatures down today.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on December 28, 2018, 04:31:18 PM
It was pretty windy when I was blowing snow this morning, but this is a heavily wooded area, so sometimes the wind is not a big factor.  My wife is from Great Bend, Kansas, so I know what the wind is like in the open country.  We lived for a while in southwestern Minnesota, where the wind blows a lot also.  In some ways, winter there can be more rugged than up in the forested areas of the state.  The sun can be shining, but when the wind roars in and there is snow on the ground, a “ground blizzard” can pop up with zero visibility. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2018, 11:52:19 AM
10-13 below zero this morning,  Happened early just after 1am and warmed toward sunrise. They have near 50° toward the end of 7 day forecast so another warm ridge building.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 29, 2018, 01:51:51 PM
Cold by any standard.
We got to 9 above due to clouds.
50 forecast here by late next week. Time to plant the garden?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2018, 02:52:35 PM
Would need to use a pickaxe to about 13". Soil temps 4"-36"....#1 is 4", #4 is 36". I've seen it freeze down to 36" last February.  :shock:
Snow cover actually insulates somewhat I noticed.

Current soil temperatures
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 29, 2018, 05:01:45 PM
10-13 below zero this morning,  Happened early just after 1am and warmed toward sunrise. They have near 50° toward the end of 7 day forecast so another warm ridge building.
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That's redicurus. Seinfeld  :-)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 29, 2018, 06:57:35 PM
"Farther east, the weather will again tend to trend much milder and wetter,
as a storm system develops over the lower Mississippi Valley region on New
Year's Eve and lifts north up across the lower Great Lakes region.
Southerly flow ahead of a low center and attendant cold front will result
in notably warmer temperatures lifting north from the Gulf Coast states
and overspreading much of the Eastern half of the nation. High
temperatures especially along and just west of the Appalachians including
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees above
normal on New Year's Eve. With the influx of warmer air will also be a
substantial amount of moisture, and the expectation is for a rather
widespread area of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms to impact the
Southern and Eastern U.S. from the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
east to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region. Some localized runoff and
flooding concerns will be possible given rainfall amounts of as much as 1
to 3 inches with this next system, and based on this, the Weather
Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.
In
addition to the rainfall, there will be a localized concern for some
severe weather, especially across the Gulf Coast states, and this is where
the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms. The concerns for heavy rainfall and severe weather will
both need to be closely monitored over the next couple of days."

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd



Oh, goody.

 :evil:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 30, 2018, 10:50:21 AM
Brother in VA is tired of rain. Over 75" this year I think he said. Inconceivable to me. Really muddy he says.
Good luck dealing with it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 30, 2018, 11:54:39 AM
I've had places I could barely walk on for days at a time.  Far too soft and slick for tractor work, even my small ones.  Trying to till some areas just results in goop stuck to the tines.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on December 30, 2018, 02:25:14 PM
Brother in VA is tired of rain. Over 75" this year I think he said. Inconceivable to me. Really muddy he says.
Good luck dealing with it.
I'm having a banner year in the low 60's. 75 inches is nuts.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2018, 05:04:00 PM
Measly 29". And that's above normal.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 30, 2018, 05:10:59 PM
Forecast for another possible 1-2 before year's end tomorrow.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 30, 2018, 05:42:35 PM
Will Mom usher in the New Year with some natural fireworks?

"outlook from the Storm Prediction Center concerning the severe weather potential on Monday. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but flash flooding and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. "




Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 30, 2018, 08:36:34 PM
Measly 29". And that's above normal.

32.18" for calendar year and that is about 8" more than normal.

31.07" for water year 2018, about 7" more than normal.

We have really enjoyed the extra precipitation regardless.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on December 31, 2018, 01:08:10 PM
Frigging tornado warnings on New Year's Eve day.  What kind of nutty goofy nonsense is that?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 31, 2018, 02:08:43 PM
Just got back from downtown took a snapshot. Somethings you have to drive for no matter what like Margaritas. Camera cleans it up some but very low visibility, 5°F and winds gusting to 40mph.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 31, 2018, 05:44:51 PM
Why measuring off snowboard doesn't always work. This is just a couple inches of snow, check the yard out from 1" to 19".
Our wind has been approaching 40 mph all day. Current temperature 3°. Now, who in their right mind would trade this beautiful weather for sunny Florida?
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on December 31, 2018, 06:05:15 PM
 :lol:

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 31, 2018, 10:41:30 PM
The forecast low is -14 by NWS. It's -1 currently at 9:35 pm with lots of wind. If or when the wind stops I can see -20's. To break a record around here Jan. you have to be near -30's so this is just another day in paradise. Maybe I should take my daughters advice and move to Alaska. :roll:
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 01, 2019, 06:15:31 AM
Will Mom usher in the New Year with some natural fireworks?

"outlook from the Storm Prediction Center concerning the severe weather potential on Monday. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, but flash flooding and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. "


68 for the high, wind damage around the area, almost an inch of rain 'official' but I got more than that.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 01, 2019, 09:24:41 AM
woke up to a brisk -2 this morning. -29 below yesterday. and wind chill. Sunny.

But will warm up again this week.

We have snow and ice on side roads. We need some sun to get rid of it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 01, 2019, 09:32:31 AM
WOW -29 is getting down there.

We only managed -8, winds stayed up and didn't get the radiational cooling needed to dip much colder.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 01, 2019, 09:37:31 AM
Not in your league this far south. Between clouds and wind, lowest here was +10, WC averaging -6.

Warm up coming!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 01, 2019, 09:47:17 AM
Then-there is the annual ice dive on Lake Minnetonka. Yes-people pay to jump in the lake on NYD.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on January 01, 2019, 01:50:12 PM
Then-there is the annual ice dive on Lake Minnetonka. Yes-people pay to jump in the lake on NYD.
Never understood why people do that :?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 01, 2019, 02:46:33 PM
article and video for you southerners. below the 45th parallel

http://video.startribune.com/hundreds-start-2019-by-jumping-into-32-degree-lake-minnetonka/503762202/

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 01, 2019, 05:48:49 PM
60 gauges at flood stage, 12 at moderate:

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on January 01, 2019, 06:40:18 PM
Long time tradition in Boston also. Water is likely a bit warmer. Saltier too.

https://www.boston.gov/calendar/l-street-brownies-annual-new-year%E2%80%99s-day-plunge (https://www.boston.gov/calendar/l-street-brownies-annual-new-year%E2%80%99s-day-plunge)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 02, 2019, 07:44:43 AM
December ended up 4.5 to the good side with no measurable snow accumulation.  Officially only 'T' for the month.  6.5 inches of rain though, an inch too much.

 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 03, 2019, 10:02:38 PM
Thursday, 1/3/19, has been a day for bad winter weather in Oklahoma.  Much of central and southwestern Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City, has picked up some snow.   However, it's interesting how in parts of north Oklahoma, such as Enid and Stillwater, the temp has been 32 or 33 since late this morning, so it's been freezing rain or sleet, no snow. So my rain gauge didn't freeze up and kept on recording, which is now around a half inch. Photo of radar shows what I mean. There has been some ice accumulation on trees in Stillwater. At least one of them fell on a house. Fortunately, power outages have hardly been spotty and not widespread. https://oms.stillwater.org/OMSWebMap/OMSWebMap.htm?clientKey=undefined (https://oms.stillwater.org/OMSWebMap/OMSWebMap.htm?clientKey=undefined)

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/radarjan32019.jpg)

Red sticker meant to cover license plate.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/treefell.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 04, 2019, 01:58:05 PM
A satellite view of where it snowed in Oklahoma on Jan. 3.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snowjan2018.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 04, 2019, 03:01:41 PM
55° and running around without jacket today. More of the same coming and believe it or not as much as I love bad weather I'm enjoying this today.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 04, 2019, 03:07:56 PM
45 today and very sunny. Great day. Melting the crap on the roads!!!!!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 04, 2019, 03:15:21 PM
50 today. Big muddy from frost coming out, but a nice day.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on January 04, 2019, 03:19:04 PM
I knew it wasn't my imagination about this season. At least it stopped today, been to 67F so far. =D>

CLIMATE...Thursday was the 9th consecutive day with the high
temperature being cooler than 60 degrees in Tucson. This is the
longest such streak since 11 consecutive days from late December
1982 to early January 1983 and tied for the 13th longest such
streak since 1895.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 04, 2019, 03:20:19 PM
Anybody watching the radar loop s/e of St. Louis?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 04, 2019, 03:55:32 PM
Nice day here, too — and a big turnaround.  It was 28 below New Year’s Day morning, and this afternoon, Jan. 4, we reached 42 above, a 70-degree difference.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 04, 2019, 05:09:37 PM
Impressive temp swing, even for the Plains
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JCA433 on January 04, 2019, 09:05:56 PM
Please send some arctic air to south Florida soon!  The hot weather here to begin the year is very unwelcome and ridiculous.  I know it is south Florida but the temperatures so far this month are more typical of October 


JAN 1 High 81.5F, JAN 2 High 81.9F, JAN 3 High 84.0F, JAN4 High 83.5F


The average temperature so far this winter is 69.7F
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 05, 2019, 04:55:32 PM
CPC is crystal balling 'warm-ish' until about the 19th, then 'cool-ish' into February.

Guess we'll see.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 07, 2019, 04:02:20 AM
January 7, 3AM and it's 56 degrees?

We've had nights in May and June lower than that.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 08, 2019, 05:37:51 AM
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on January 08, 2019, 08:33:51 PM
Tornado in Ohio today. NSFW caution on video (language).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_xtnJTtN18 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_xtnJTtN18)

We've had several hail reports (actual hail, not graupel or sleet) and are supposed to get thunder later here in New England.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 08, 2019, 10:39:42 PM
It was windy here today-worth watching

https://twitter.com/FOX9/status/1082792062456479744
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 10, 2019, 08:41:59 AM
First time below freezing since 12/30


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 10, 2019, 08:44:30 PM
Oklahoma declared drought free as more rain moves in Thursday night.  https://www.stwnewspress.com/oklahoma/news/state-declared-free-of-drought-as-more-rain-moves-in/article_ec5c9650-5d00-57d5-a3f5-9ee6ef2e1ee6.html (https://www.stwnewspress.com/oklahoma/news/state-declared-free-of-drought-as-more-rain-moves-in/article_ec5c9650-5d00-57d5-a3f5-9ee6ef2e1ee6.html)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 12, 2019, 09:38:03 AM
Have to share our nice 6.1" snowfall amount with you all. Most at one time in several years. NWS had forecast 2-5" N to S for our area. So they were not far off. Light winds.

.59" core water equivalent. What worries me a bit is my cylinder only captured .30" water equivalent. Without wind, any explanation for this big difference? Would be interested in learned opinions. I measure on a snowboard.

CoCoRaHS observer
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 12, 2019, 10:02:47 AM
Chiefs fans in jeopardy today.  Game may be sloppy

GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 12, 2019, 10:11:26 AM
I sure hope this is the useless flubberwocky that two weeks forecasts usually are:

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on January 12, 2019, 10:14:06 AM
Forecast here was for 2" to 3" of snow.  I actually received 7":
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/2019-Jan-12-Snow.png)
Storm moisture total is currently .61" with persistent light snowfall.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on January 12, 2019, 10:54:34 AM
We have the coldest air we've seen since Thanksgiving here in Southern New England, keeping the latest storm to our south. I'm not complaining, but this winter is ominously looking like the setup we had in 2015 (where it started snowing at the end of January and didn't stop until March).
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 12, 2019, 05:50:52 PM
Forecast here was for 2" to 3" of snow.  I actually received 7":
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/2019-Jan-12-Snow.png)
Storm moisture total is currently .61" with persistent light snowfall.

Pretty...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 12, 2019, 05:56:51 PM
Have to share our nice 6.1" snowfall amount with you all. Most at one time in several years. NWS had forecast 2-5" N to S for our area. So they were not far off. Light winds.

.59" core water equivalent. What worries me a bit is my cylinder only captured .30" water equivalent. Without wind, any explanation for this big difference? Would be interested in learned opinions. I measure on a snowboard.

CoCoRaHS observer

Looks like a chance you those with snow cover may go below zero, NEXT Sunday looking at long range models.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 13, 2019, 02:57:21 AM
Columbia, MO got 14 inches of snow, which may be a record amount. 

It was almost all cold rain here with 1.03" with some brief snow flurries for the final part of the storm.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 15, 2019, 06:49:54 AM
Maybe it's stuck?


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 8-)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 18, 2019, 02:02:00 AM
I sure hope this is the useless flubberwocky that two weeks forecasts usually are:

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Seems to have been.  I prefer this:

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 19, 2019, 08:58:35 AM
We've already had our high for the day and the temperature 24 hours from now will be less than half what it is now.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 19, 2019, 09:20:05 AM
This artic outbreak is less severe than originally forecast 5 days ago here in northern KS. Progressive weather systems with little precipitation and temperatures up and down. Current temperature 12.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 19, 2019, 09:58:10 AM
This artic outbreak is less severe than originally forecast 5 days ago here in northern KS. Progressive weather systems with little precipitation and temperatures up and down. Current temperature 12.

It was plenty cold — 27 below — here this morning, but it looks like we will warm up a bit in the next few days. Here too, little snow of late and see-saw temps.  Hackensack has its annual winter fest going on this weekend, and this afternoon some brave souls are going to participate in the “Polar Plunge” by jumping off the ice into Birch Lake.  Not me.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 19, 2019, 10:20:21 AM
-27 below makes my -5 below look like weenie roast weather.  Like Droberts said the coldest air didn't dig as far south or west as models were suggesting a few days ago.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 19, 2019, 10:21:58 AM
And they are also doing HS outdoor hockey in Minnesota this morning.
Bemidji-I believe

-3 here this morning. There will be a small layer of slush on the Mountain Dew bottles!!!!!!!


At least the Chiefs game will be a little warmer than expected
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 19, 2019, 10:27:25 AM
The moon had a bright planet or star next to it this morning. Anyway one of my cameras caught it. Then last image was what 3 days of freezing fog will do. Hoarfrost is pretty cool looking.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 19, 2019, 10:40:44 AM
You sure that's not an optical anomaly?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 19, 2019, 10:57:33 AM
also, our below zero temp is the latest in history. Surprising.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 19, 2019, 11:31:27 AM
The moon had a bright planet or star next to it this morning. Anyway one of my cameras caught it. Then last image was what 3 days of freezing fog will do. Hoarfrost is pretty cool looking.
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Pretty cool, indeed. In full sun under a blue sky it’s one of nature’s special treats.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 19, 2019, 11:50:38 AM
You sure that's not an optical anomaly?

No, not sure of anything but never seen it before. The moon eventually sits.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JCA433 on January 19, 2019, 12:56:57 PM
Our high temperature yesterday, JAN 18, was 81.1F and the low 51.1 F  The average temperature so far this winter is 68.3 F.

I wonder how many places in North America have a high temperature above 80 F on JAN 18?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on January 20, 2019, 03:46:31 PM
Nice diurnal spread today, 41F so far and may squeak out another degree or two. =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on January 20, 2019, 04:46:54 PM
Might hit 32 tonight. Been a normal January so far but no freezing temps.
That's OK with me. :-)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 20, 2019, 05:13:18 PM
First snow that fell late yesterday basically melted on contact due to the worm ground.  Once the winds picked up and the temperature dropped enough it started to stick, but was sort of slushy.  Overnight we got maybe two inches on cold surfaces, but the driveway stayed a sort of wet snow/slush mix.  Then it all froze.  About 8AM this morning, it was a solid sheet of ice maybe a 1/4" thick.  By Noon, with mostly cloudy skies and a few peaks of broken Sun, it had all melted to just a wet driveway even though it was only 22 degrees.  Weird what happens with blacktop on warm ground with a slight bit of sunshine.



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 20, 2019, 05:22:46 PM
I reported 3.17 inches of rain for the past 24 hours this morning on CoCoRaHS.  Not a lot for some of the hurricane states, but a lot of rain for here.  And it's been very wet  for the past few months.  It's adding up.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 22, 2019, 06:23:54 PM
Map shows strong temperature change from cold front passing through central Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon.  For now there is a winter weather advisory for the possibility of light icing. 
(https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/49257762_2292289680821421_4245636521408856064_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=74577b89dd065eb97a94b2c4b930641d&oe=5CF7797C)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 23, 2019, 07:13:10 AM
Map shows strong temperature change from cold front passing through central Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon.  For now there is a winter weather advisory for the possibility of light icing. 

It's coming my way, too.  Brrr.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 23, 2019, 07:32:59 AM
Rivers almost made it to flood stage a week or so ago, then fell off about 10-15 feet.  Now back on the rise and expected to reach the same near flood stage levels by next week.

It takes a (word I can't use here) of water to cause a wide river to rise 10-15 feet over several square miles of land.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 23, 2019, 06:22:35 PM
It looks like we have a frigid week ahead, but that’s no surprise, as the last two weeks of January are the coldest on average in Minnesota.  The temperature here one morning last week dipped briefly to 30 below, but until now the subzero cold lasted only for a day or two at a time.  Forecasters say this current arctic cold wave will likely persist in the Upper Midwest into February.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 23, 2019, 06:45:48 PM
I would say so  :-(.  And no chance for you to miss the coldest air. Down here we are going to get a few glancing blows is all.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 23, 2019, 06:52:33 PM
Yeah, y'all can keep that.

Meanwhile, the river is up another foot and a half since midnight.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: weather34 on January 24, 2019, 03:14:52 PM
hope I'm not intruding but its winter here and whilst we get summer tornadoes all over turkey on a rather small scale compared to the US tornado season reports but today middle of winter this monster tore up a district here in turkey ..the tv reports and videos are far more revealing about the aftermath 1 fatality and numerous injured and destruction of anything in its path .but totally unseasonal and totally beyond any scale I've seen reported here in the past ..

the photo its NOT fire or smoke ..that was the scale of it ..a changing climate or a one off ..?

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on January 24, 2019, 05:55:12 PM
 :shock: Wow, that looks healthy, good inflow! Do you folks use the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF 0-5) as we in the State do, or something else?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 24, 2019, 06:07:29 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/564x/36/37/0e/36370ed1ab3885cfbdbf6ad247ae74f5.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 24, 2019, 06:23:02 PM
My favorite for this time of year

This is long:
THE MINNESOTA TEMPERATURE CONVERSION CHART

>60 Above
>New Jerseyites try to turn on the heat
>People in Minn. plant gardens

>50 Above
>Californians shiver uncontrollably
>People in Minn. sunbathe

>40 Above
>Italian and English cars won't start
>People in Minn. drive with the windows down

>32 Above
>Distilled water freezes
>Lake Mille Lacs water gets thicker


>20 Above
>Floridians don coats, thermal underwear, gloves and woolly hats
>People in Minn. throw on a flannel shirt


>15 Above

>Philadelphia landlords finally turn up the heat
>People in Minn. have the last cookout before it gets too cold

>Zero
>People in Miami all die
>Minnesotans lick the flagpole

>20 Below
Iowans fly away to Mexico
>People in MN get out their winter coats


>40 Below
>Hollywood disintegrates
>The Girl Scouts in MN are selling cookies door to door

>60 Below
>Polar bears begin to evacuate the Arctic
>MN Boy Scouts postpone "winter Survival" classes until it gets coldenough

>80 Below
>Mt. St. Helen's freezes
>People in MN rent some videos

>100 Below
>Santa Claus abandons the North Pole
>Minnesotans get frustrated because they can't thaw the keg


>297 Below
>Microbial life no longer survives on dairy products
>Cows in MN complain about farmers with cold hands

>460 Below
>All atomic motion stops (absolute zero on the Kelvin Scale)

>People in MN start saying "cold nuff for ya?"

>500 Below
>Hell freezes over
>My school district has a two hour late start.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 24, 2019, 06:36:43 PM
My favorite for this time of year

Ya, youbecha!

Our weatherman was talking about the Polar Vortex coming next week, with the coldest temperatures since the 1980s for the upper midwest.

Brrrrr!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 24, 2019, 06:43:02 PM
Buzz words.


Don't need 'em.


We have some colder weather coming, but nothing overly dramatic.  CPC say 'below normal', but it only appears to be a few degrees (so far).  And it only appears to be short term, maybe a few days (so far).




Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 24, 2019, 10:22:40 PM
hope I'm not intruding but its winter here and whilst we get summer tornadoes all over turkey on a rather small scale compared to the US tornado season reports but today middle of winter this monster tore up a district here in turkey

I know that a tornado can possibly hit anywhere in the world, but I don't associate Turkey with them.  We've had a tornado in November a few years ago and it was deadly.  Mother Nature sure has her moods!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 24, 2019, 10:24:32 PM
Here's an interesting article about coming attractions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/24/extreme-arctic-outbreak-possible-next-week-polar-vortex-targets-northern-us/?utm_term=.7979995fa05e
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: weather34 on January 25, 2019, 01:03:02 AM
:shock: Wow, that looks healthy, good inflow! Do you folks use the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF 0-5) as we in the State do, or something else?

good morning

im not aware of a F scale used here as most are sea based thin tornadoes water sprout that dissipate rapidly as they hit the shore lines , i see many develop from home some 15-20km out at sea that just dissipate rapidly as they approach the shore line. these frequently happen during warmer months .but that one yesterday january our coldest month theoretically unusual scale and season .
no i wouldn’t associate turkey for being a region of producing destructive tornadoes but there it was yesterday..

bizarre year for us in the last 24 months intense storms and flash flooding is frequent however my deeper thoughts of flooding is this is a man made problem where areas of intense flooding occur in recent heavily densed construction areas where the heavy rainfall has nowhere to run . record levels of snowfall accumulation in populated mountain regions .. i guess if it continues we will have to adapt because mother nature wont adapt to us.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 25, 2019, 05:32:02 AM
Here's an interesting article about coming attractions.

So far, our forecasts are showing extended bitter cold like we had last winter.  I see about 80 hours (Tue-Fri) below freezing instead of 6-8 days.  Then a bounce back to upper 40s and above for several days.

Tonight didn't get as cold as forecast and they've adjusted today, so maybe next week won't be as cold either.  Or maybe colder. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 25, 2019, 10:52:35 AM
Interesting temperature swing here. Temperature at 6 a.m. was 7 degrees, 10 a.m. 26 degrees. 19 degree rise in 4 hours.
Wind W at 7.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on January 25, 2019, 12:35:33 PM
Our low was 0.9 °F at 12:32 am.  The wind shifted to the south and by dawn the temperature was 20 °F.  Currently it's risen to 34 °F/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 25, 2019, 12:53:00 PM
Similar rise. I can't count how many daily lows occur at strangest hours. Often the low occurs just before midnight other times right on midnight. So the low temperature for 2 different days can occur within a few minutes of the midnight hour. 
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 25, 2019, 02:51:38 PM
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Graph seems to show our temperature rise was about 3 hrs behind you.

Nice day. 41 and the cat is finally out hunting mice!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 26, 2019, 12:30:37 PM
Looks like a cold week coming up.

Not excited.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on January 27, 2019, 10:10:21 AM
Nasty raw day in Fla today. 48 raining and breezy.
One of those couch potato days.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: PaulMy on January 27, 2019, 10:27:59 AM
Nice and sunny here now and over 6 hours sunshine yesterday!  And you don't even notice the white stuff or the -10.4°

Enjoy,
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 27, 2019, 10:41:22 AM
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Snow tonight.  4-8 inches.

Then Cold this week. Wind chills -35. School may get cancelled.

Embarrass, MN -50 this morning

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dx7R0c8VYAAikwy.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on January 27, 2019, 10:54:03 AM
-50! :shock:
What's the limit of that unit.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 27, 2019, 11:47:19 AM
[quote author=chief-david link=topic=34964.msg369224#msg369224 date=1548603682

Snow tonight.  4-8 inches.

Then Cold this week. Wind chills -35. School may get cancelled.

Embarrass, MN -50 this morning

[/quote]

Our low here this morning wasn’t much better at -37, but now it’s a balmy -14.  As you say, snow tonight, then a new wave of arctic air.  I think some places in our area could see -40 temps.  The good news is that next weekend it should warm up some.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 27, 2019, 12:11:36 PM
Yeah, it seems to be a short sharp shock for Us and Them.  I'm seeing possibilities of 40-50 degree increases by next week, but who knows for sure?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 27, 2019, 01:12:37 PM
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Embarrass, MN -50 this morning



I need to look for some real estate in Embarrass, MN   :lol:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 27, 2019, 01:16:34 PM
Why does it get so cold in Embarrass MN?
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2015/02/19/why-is-it-so-cold-in-embarrass/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 27, 2019, 01:38:46 PM
I guess they wear heavy pants so they're not ...


Oh, never mind.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on January 27, 2019, 01:38:56 PM
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Embarrass, MN -50 this morning



I need to look for some real estate in Embarrass, MN   :lol:
Gotta ask. WHY??
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on January 27, 2019, 01:53:32 PM
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Embarrass, MN -50 this morning



I need to look for some real estate in Embarrass, MN   :lol:
Gotta ask. WHY??
We Floridians and Arizonans don't think like they do. ;)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 27, 2019, 03:55:41 PM
I cleaned out the freezer today to defrost it.  All the food is on my deck.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 27, 2019, 05:03:01 PM
What really stinks about this is....I will have to get up EARLY on a Monday morning to clear snow then go see 150 8th graders. We won't cancel for this.  We MAY for the cold.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 27, 2019, 05:55:29 PM
-50! :shock:
What's the limit of that unit.

To me, when it gets below zero, it's hard to tell if it's 10 below or 50 below.  It's just cold.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on January 27, 2019, 05:57:21 PM
I got a chuckle when I read the forecast discussion for my area.  I guess they're more informal on the weekends.

Quote
Enjoy it while you can because the above
mentioned cold front is of arctic origin associated with a very
amplified 500 mb trough that will center itself over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes for the rest of the week. This will lead
to bigtime changes after the warm Monday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 27, 2019, 06:41:33 PM
-50! :shock:
What's the limit of that unit.
-40 on the Davis. Also since Rainwise started using the SHT31 they have the same issue.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 28, 2019, 09:20:22 AM
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Wind and gusts midnight to 8 a.m. this morning 28 Jan
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 28, 2019, 12:05:40 PM
What're y'all seeing beyond 7 days?  I'm seeing upper 50 into the 60s.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 28, 2019, 12:29:46 PM
Seeing brief warm up this weekend, then just more normal for this time of year; i.e., 30s

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 28, 2019, 02:06:26 PM
The change has begun.  It's all downhill from here for a few days.  Currently 53 with winds 15-18, G to 28.  They say Wind Chill N/A.  I say they haven't stepped outside.  53, cloudy and windy is friggin' chilly!!!

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 28, 2019, 02:18:31 PM
The change has begun.  It's all downhill from here for a few days.  Currently 53 with winds 15-18, G to 28.  They say Wind Chill N/A.  I say they haven't stepped outside.  53, cloudy and windy is friggin' chilly!!!

 ](*,)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyAWJylVAAA4oWp.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 28, 2019, 02:22:43 PM
The change has begun.  It's all downhill from here for a few days.  Currently 53 with winds 15-18, G to 28.  They say Wind Chill N/A.  I say they haven't stepped outside.  53, cloudy and windy is friggin' chilly!!!

 ](*,)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyAWJylVAAA4oWp.jpg)

You know its cold when you need to keep the beer in the cooler to keep it from freezing. Aah!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 28, 2019, 02:26:30 PM
Our gust today been near that 50 mph mark.  This is my open area station can be seen live here: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNEVALEN3
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 28, 2019, 02:53:54 PM
This is some of the colder air I've seen with -50F spread throughout.  Wednesday evening 6pm central from one of the better models only covers 48 hours. HRW WRF-ARW is a research model runs just twice a day and uses a combo of data including rapid models. 

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 28, 2019, 03:30:43 PM
We're not supposed to get near that cold, but they're guessing maybe single digits Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  Might not compare to what many have, but it'll be the coldest we've had this year.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 28, 2019, 03:40:18 PM
Tuesday
 Patchy blowing snow after 2pm. Increasing clouds and cold, with a temperature falling to around -15 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -41. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tuesday Night
 Mostly cloudy, with a low around -28. Wind chill values as low as -53. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday
 Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -14. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night
 Mostly clear, with a low around -28. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

From NWS Twin Cities-Twitter
We should mention that we are expecting a high in the mid to upper 30s (above zero) on Saturday 🙂
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 28, 2019, 03:53:58 PM
They cancelled school for today.  I think they jumped the gun. It is not that cold and we only got 5 inches of snow.  Bright sun today. We have been at school with a lot worse conditions.

Two years ago, St. Paul schools left a kid on a bus at night after a snow event. Scared the crap out of everyone. Since then-schools are gun shy.

Problems come from having crap pay for bus drivers that are not real employees of the district. They work for companies that contract bussing. So there are not enough drivers.

Our roads were clean at 5:30. I now live on a side road-it is the last to be done. We could have been at school.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 28, 2019, 04:25:06 PM
ValentineWeather

LOL at Florida graphic.

Did you see this International Falls forecast?
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=110&y=18&site=dlh&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=110&map_y=18#.XE9nO1VKiM9


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on January 28, 2019, 04:30:30 PM
They cancelled school for today.  I think they jumped the gun. It is not that cold and we only got 5 inches of snow.  Bright sun today. We have been at school with a lot worse conditions.

Two years ago, St. Paul schools left a kid on a bus at night after a snow event. Scared the crap out of everyone. Since then-schools are gun shy.

Problems come from having crap pay for bus drivers that are not real employees of the district. They work for companies that contract bussing. So there are not enough drivers.

Our roads were clean at 5:30. I now live on a side road-it is the last to be done. We could have been at school.

It is a tough call. As a former superintendent, I can tell you it isn't an exact science. I missed one or two over the years.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 28, 2019, 04:56:18 PM
I know. It is getting tougher to have class. Litigious and social media society.

Many are already closing for Tues and Wed.

My big complaint is that we still have to go in to school. Some people drive 40 miles to work. Like they should be out in the cold too.  I live 3 miles from school. No biggie.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JudinNorman on January 28, 2019, 04:57:42 PM
With your expertise why aren't you holding the position to making the go or no go for school days ?
Why your school district wouldn't have you making the call is beyond belief.


They cancelled school for today.  I think they jumped the gun. It is not that cold and we only got 5 inches of snow.  Bright sun today. We have been at school with a lot worse conditions.

Two years ago, St. Paul schools left a kid on a bus at night after a snow event. Scared the crap out of everyone. Since then-schools are gun shy.

Problems come from having crap pay for bus drivers that are not real employees of the district. They work for companies that contract bussing. So there are not enough drivers.

Our roads were clean at 5:30. I now live on a side road-it is the last to be done. We could have been at school.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 28, 2019, 05:41:07 PM
way above my pay grade. That is what the Superintendent and Transportation director get paid for. They can be the ones up a 5 am talking to the DOT.  I will be warm in bed.
One of the reasons I dumped my school weather facebook page is because I was getting irate people, mad at me, for not closing school. Like it is my call.

My god, this is Minnesota. It gets cold. We get snow. If you do not like it, move away.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 28, 2019, 05:43:06 PM
ValentineWeather

LOL at Florida graphic.

Did you see this International Falls forecast?
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=110&y=18&site=dlh&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=110&map_y=18#.XE9nO1VKiM9

The model above I posted is the coldest I could find. Some only are showing -35F range. Still cold but not -50's that's nuts.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: spc fresno on January 29, 2019, 09:35:43 AM
Forecast wind chills in the Midwest for Wednesday morning. Wow.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on January 29, 2019, 12:50:59 PM
Michigan State University (my alma mater) has cancelled classes for Wednesday. It's only the sixth time in the school's history that classes have been cancelled due to weather (for a total of seven days - two day closure in 1978).
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 29, 2019, 03:12:32 PM
Our temperature this afternoon has been fairly steady at -22, but made much worse by a strong northwest wind that makes for some brutal windchill readings.  This is forest and lake country, so trees help break the wind, except in open spaces and on lakes where there is blowing snow.  It must be especially harsh today in the more open farming country to our west.  This morning I drove into town, five miles away, and learned some businesses, including our local medical clinic, were closing early and didn’t plan to be open tomorrow.  Area schools are closed today and tomorrow as well.  NWS-Duluth forecasts a low of -42 for our area tonight, with blustery conditions creating wind chill values between -55 to -65.  Similar conditions are expected through Thursday before there is some improvement.  All in all, it’s shaping up to be an especially frigid week here in north central Minnesota.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 29, 2019, 03:44:06 PM
We do not have school until Friday.

But, we put together e-learning days to keep things going.  We will see how it goes.

Damn cold and windy. Tomorrow will be worse.
I do not remember the Dew Point being -22F. EVER.

U of Minn called off classes at noon. Tomorrow is TBD
NDSU called off today and tomorrow. Kid is happy.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 29, 2019, 04:56:15 PM
(https://stmedia.stimg.co/1548795809_08-1008199653+26COLD013019.PIX.jpg?auto=compress&crop=faces&dpr=1.875&w=262.5)

A University of Minnesota student crossed University Avenue in shorts Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2019. He wouldn't give his name because he said his mom would be mad at him.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 29, 2019, 06:22:10 PM
BREAKING: Due to the severe wind chill conditions, the U.S. Postal Service has announced postal delivery Wednesday will be suspended in Iowa, Minnesota, western Wisconsin and western Illinois.

Many businesses closing too.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JudinNorman on January 29, 2019, 06:33:49 PM
Wind chill needs to be discontinued. It's a farce.
Does interior Alaska not have mail service and businesses closed most of the winter?
It's a joke.

BREAKING: Due to the severe wind chill conditions, the U.S. Postal Service has announced postal delivery Wednesday will be suspended in Iowa, Minnesota, western Wisconsin and western Illinois.

Many businesses closing too.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 29, 2019, 06:34:29 PM
"Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds" ....  But not the cold.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on January 29, 2019, 06:56:00 PM
Wind chill needs to be discontinued. It's a farce.
It's a joke.

Seriously? Wind takes heat/moisture from exposed skin MUCH faster than no wind, akin to evaporative cooling. Ever blow on your hot soup, coffee, meal, to help cool it off?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 29, 2019, 07:46:02 PM
Oh, it's real. Real cold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 29, 2019, 07:47:00 PM
I was in Montana visiting back in the '90s, it was -30° with 25 mph wind and you literally couldn't breathe the air.  The only way to breath was to have the face covered and walk backward. 
Extreme cold can be very dangerous on the lungs. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 30, 2019, 08:24:45 AM
overnight lows

Just hit the low temp a few minutes ago
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 30, 2019, 08:55:35 AM
As you would expect it’s colder Up North.  Hit -40.2 at 7:43 a.m.  But it’s clear and calm right now, better than yesterday with the brutal wind chills.  —Bill

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 30, 2019, 01:12:09 PM
Here's a nation wide look at the WIND CHILL at 6 am Wed. morning. Interestingly, this cold front came to Oklahoma via the backdoor route, so won't get the brunt of it here.  Already the wind has switched to southeast. So the highs this afternoon with crystal clear sunny skies, it will be in the low 20s in NE corner of Oklahoma and low 50s in SW corner.   Low here tonight will be in the teens, which is about the same as the coldest lows, so far this winter.  Emily, one of the young TV meteorologists for KFOR-4 Oklahoma City, who grew up in Chicago, said she can't imagine how cold the weather feels like there, though her parents said it got that cold when she was a baby.
(https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/51163609_2303659853017737_8444574971509866496_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=45da0e4b0d318f322c5507315a4e9b27&oe=5D010B1F)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 30, 2019, 01:15:05 PM
We're in the upswing too.  Cold for the day and evening, but then starting to rise.  60s for the weekend.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bushman on January 30, 2019, 01:31:28 PM
https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/movies/2019/01/30/polar-vortex-2019-michigan-movies/2720153002/  Some of these are awful.  :)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 30, 2019, 02:53:15 PM
  Emily, one of the young TV meteorologists for KFOR-4 Oklahoma City, who grew up in Chicago, said she can't imagine how cold the weather feels like there, though her parents said it got that cold when she was a baby.


Everyone remembers the windchill readings of -60 below and just can't get over it. Its engrained in everyone's memory how cold it was way back when and most have no clue they changed the bogus WC formula 19 years ago.

Same here in Valentine when I hear these ridiculous numbers being thrown around.  Our actual coldest thermometer reading ever wasn't back at the beginning of the industrial age it was in 1989 -39°.

-60 was a common number years ago. 
 old      -21  with 15 mph wind= -60 not uncommon to get this every winter upper regions of USA
New     -21  with 45 mph wind= -60 this is now unusual to have winds this strong when it's -21

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on January 30, 2019, 03:42:23 PM
It's only a freakin' 54deg F here now, SE wind 8-15mph, windchill ~47deg F. BRRRR... Low overnight was a frigid 40deg F.

But it'll be back to 75-78 by Friday-Tue, 80's next week?

Not to make light of that terrible weather up there that so many are suffering from.
Y'all keep in mind that even more places on Earth are experiencing much warmer than normal conditions, like Australia, the US West Coast, even down here in S TX.

[I think the coldest I ever experienced was ~ -20-25 while hunting near Ann Arbor, MI many decades ago. That was cold, was working deep nights in downtown AA and my truck's tires would be flatspotted in the mornings (~ -10-15F).]

A prominent scientist, Jennifer Francis*, explains some of it all here, in a few articles:
https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-francis-154314/articles

The most recent one, in a very good, readable layman's description, with excellent graphics:
https://theconversation.com/how-frigid-polar-vortex-blasts-are-connected-to-global-warming-110653

* "Jennifer Francis is a Senior Scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center and a Visiting Professor in the Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University."
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on January 30, 2019, 04:37:50 PM
Well, I could tell the tale of straddling the top of an F-106 changing an antenna on a flight line in January during an ORI.  But I froze too many brain cells to remember much of it.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on January 30, 2019, 05:09:58 PM
Quote
Not to make light of that terrible weather up there that so many are suffering from.
Y'all keep in mind that even more places on Earth are experiencing much warmer than normal conditions, like Australia, the US West Coast, even down here in S TX.

Don't even play those cards because my hand will beat it.

2018:
Jan 1-low of -13 wind chill around -25F
April 16--  +20 inches of snow in a snow storm. MSP closed for 4 hours. MSP!
May 30--  102F

Along with high humidity and skin draining dryness.


This week will go from feeling -54 to a high of 40 to another predicted low of -20.....in 7 days.

I win. I hate it when people with two seasons complain. We can have more that 4

Any time you want to move, I am sure the state of Minnesota will take your tax money.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on January 31, 2019, 08:20:51 AM
Very cold morning again at -47, but the forecast is for highs of 16 and 26 ABOVE on Friday and Saturday. The RainWise MK111-LR temp/humidity sensor operates to -67. My other station, a WS-2000, stopped at -40.  Other PWS stations in the area showing on my WU forecast page also show -40 because of sensor limits.  Bill

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on January 31, 2019, 10:08:20 AM
Quote
Not to make light of that terrible weather up there that so many are suffering from.
Y'all keep in mind that even more places on Earth are experiencing much warmer than normal conditions, like Australia, the US West Coast, even down here in S TX.

Don't even play those cards because my hand will beat it.
[No doubt, as far as extremes go. :-) ]

2018:
Jan 1-low of -13 wind chill around -25F
April 16--  +20 inches of snow in a snow storm. MSP closed for 4 hours. MSP!
[A very rare dusting of snow or sleet around here will lock everything up for the day... :lol:]

May 30--  102F
[Once saw an extended 104F+ period in February. My kids step-FiL had come down from near your frozen tundraland for our main Stockshow week to see them exhibit their animals. Poor guy nearly croaked from the heat and humidity of an early season Valley heatwave. When he first got off the plane from subzero country and stepped out of the aircraft into 100F+ and humidity ~85%, he looked shocked. :shock: (back then one just walked down a stairway from the plane, no jetways at HRL)  ]

Along with high humidity and skin draining dryness.


This week will go from feeling -54 to a high of 40 to another predicted low of -20.....in 7 days.

I win. I hate it when people with two seasons complain. We can have more that 4
[ heheh   :twisted: ]

Any time you want to move, I am sure the state of Minnesota will take your tax money.
[Nooo thanks, had a chance to pick a MN location early in my career. Company offered me a choice of ~20 nationwide locations as a PCS destination. Some were in MN-WI-etc, some were CA-FL-etc. I did extensive due diligence on all of them and made the right, warm (very hot sometimes, mostly warm all year), choice. Good move, co. paid all expenses, pre-visits, etc.. The co. RE division even made an acceptable offer on my old house, so I just signed a few papers and made a profit with no 'home sale' hassles at all.

Y'all can have that 'winter' stuff. It's about 55F outside right now, high of ~65F expected (it's cloudy), 70-80's by weekend-next Tuesday.
Last year, 2018, was actually a fairly 'average' year, only a couple of high 90-100F periods, generally mild cooler times, and no hurricanes, Harvey in 2017 was more than enough for a while, thkuvrymuch. Going to check the local (EWX-CRP-BRO) 2018 NOAA climatological stuff one of these days.]

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on January 31, 2019, 04:27:47 PM
Interesting how this polar vortex is moving more east than straight south, so Florida is not going to have to worry about any freeze warnings.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on January 31, 2019, 04:51:43 PM
I'd say the ridge over the Caribbean is too strong to allow a further southward push of the jet. Hooray for the oranges. =D>
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-equatorial-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on January 31, 2019, 08:22:42 PM
Interesting how this polar vortex is moving more east than straight south, so Florida is not going to have to worry about any freeze warnings.
Did hit 32 this morning for a brief moment then the clouds moved in and it rose to 36. First time this winter I have hit freezing.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 31, 2019, 08:31:23 PM
Interesting how this polar vortex is moving more east than straight south, so Florida is not going to have to worry about any freeze warnings.
Did hit 32 this morning for a brief moment then the clouds moved in and it rose to 36. First time this winter I have hit freezing.

Sure they had the big fans mixing the air in the orchards,  or do they have new ways nowadays? 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on February 01, 2019, 03:15:38 PM
The heck with all the cold talk. Spring is on the way.
The tree's are starting to flower down here and we hit 70 today!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on February 01, 2019, 03:49:11 PM
Morning low 15; current temperature 61. 46 degree range.

Beautiful day.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: zakuthesilverwolf on February 01, 2019, 09:22:20 PM
Current Conditions
C: 43
H: 49
L:40
Conditions
Cloudy Currently
Been Rainy and Foggy throughout the day though still been a pleasant day over all
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on February 02, 2019, 06:39:10 PM
Polar Vortex From Space (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/images-nasa-and-noaa-watching-polar-vortex-from-space.html)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 02, 2019, 06:45:44 PM
Felt like 36 today

Felt like -53 Tuesday night.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 02, 2019, 08:14:38 PM
3 day graph
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on February 03, 2019, 07:54:52 AM
Dam, DP's at -30. Does your skin just dry up and fall off. :shock:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: vreihen on February 03, 2019, 08:11:56 AM
Dam, DP's at -30. Does your skin just dry up and fall off. :shock:

Yeah, but it's a dry cold.....  :lol:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 03, 2019, 09:12:21 AM
Humidifier comes in handy during the cold months. Keeps you from getting a static shock every time you touch something. One of those big units that hold 3 gallons of water or so and fill every 3rd day running at 30% humidity setting. Move it much higher the outside windows are fogging up.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 03, 2019, 09:28:52 AM
I have a humidifier on the furnace. It works pretty well.  Makes it feel much warmer. With that, it also helps to have an air exchanger so it does not build up too much.

Snow possible tonight. Very foggy.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 03, 2019, 04:00:11 PM
I keep a big pot of water on top of the wood stove.  Steams the room and makes a quick mug of coffee or hot chocolate.


Rivers are just below flood stage and beginning to fall.  Ground is still very wet, but mud is just beginning to be manageable.   So of course, now they show possibly heavy rain again this week.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on February 03, 2019, 08:12:45 PM
Three 60+ degree days in a row, 2 with dense morning fog.

Today was the end of the warm weather

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 04, 2019, 06:12:58 AM
Got a string of Spring ahead, punctuated by a day or two of 'not Spring'.  Temperatures will be nice, but we don't need the potentially flooding rains.  Wish I could bank some of this for July.

I believe we've turned the corner though.  We can get a few cold days and we've had big snows in March, but they don't last more than a couple of days before it all melts.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 06, 2019, 03:55:52 AM
I get the whole bit about frontal passages and all, but it still strikes me as odd that it's 20 degrees warmer at 2AM this morning than it was at 2PM yesterday afternoon.



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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 06, 2019, 05:37:33 PM
'Tons of Rain'.  Hey, don't look at me.  That's what it says.


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Probably not exactly untrue considering the weight of water and the several inches of rain expected over a wide area.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 06, 2019, 07:35:35 PM
The deep arctic cold of last week is over, and the NWS-Duluth office has issued a report about it.  The lowest temperature recorded was -56 at Cotton, a small town north of Duluth.  The complete report is here:

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/January2019Cold

The photo below shows media checking out the Cooperative Observer temperature sensor in Cotton. (Photo: NWS)

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 06, 2019, 11:33:32 PM
Temperature range quite amazing in Oklahoma Wednesday night from 71 in the southeast to 15 in the panhandle.  Had a minor cold thunderstorm earlier tonight.  Pea size hail fell on the southwest side of town.  But Stillwater didn't get the best part of it where it rained an inch in the next county west of here.  It was part of some storms that came in from western Oklahoma where they had hail up to quarter size.  Another chance of a cold thunderstorm coming later tonight and risk for changeover to heavy freezing rain.  One of the worst models has it up to .45".  High not expected to get above freezing tomorrow.
 
(https://stillwaterweather.com/feb62019temps.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 07, 2019, 08:51:43 AM
 Throw another log on day.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on February 07, 2019, 09:50:37 AM
ValentineWeather, +5 and Wind Chill minus 12 here. Cold going out to measure precip for CoCoRaHS this morning!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 07, 2019, 01:11:32 PM
The morning after the freezing rain, everybody's roof is white and my wind gauge is frozen stuck.  Fortunately, not much ice accumulation on the trees.  Unlike with the intense cold air mass that affected the upper Midwest, Oklahoma got the brunt of this one.  Forecast low of 11 tonight will be coldest low of winter.

Roads were like a skating rink around Stillwater this morning.  KOCO-5 of OKC said Stillwater got it worse with the ice than anywhere else. Travel took 2 or  3 hours to get to Stillwater from OKC.  It's normally 1 hour.  A Stillwater friend said her office in Stillwater called her and said do not come in.  OSU, Stillwater public schools and Meridian Career Tech closed.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/freezingrain.jpg)



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 07, 2019, 06:25:01 PM
9AM today, 68
Now, 43
Drop of 25 degrees
Forecast to drop another 20 by Sunrise.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 07, 2019, 06:36:57 PM
Have some snow today.

Love how people spend time cleaning a 6 inch snow fall, before it is over. Just more work.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 08, 2019, 09:53:20 PM
Last summer, storm spotter Val Castor for KWTV-9, Oklahoma City provided amazing live video coverage of flash flooding in Stillwater before the long downpour had even let up.  Now it's the middle of winter, and Rob Hill,  Stillwater Emergency Management Director went on a Stillwater street tour on the aftermath of the freezing rain that fell early Thursday morning.  It's viewable here: https://stillwaterweather.com/afterfreezingraintour.php (https://stillwaterweather.com/afterfreezingraintour.php)

Some interesting points along the way:
5:47 - 1st red light
7:00 - 2nd red light
14.10 -  Crossing Boomer Lake bridge
21:50 -  One of the riskiest areas done okay.
23:30 -  Rob explains why he sometimes shifts to neutral.
29:00 -  Turning to the side streets

"You gotta be a little bit weather nutty to work in emergency management", Rob Hill, Stillwater Emergency Management Director.  Hill has watched weather for Stillwater for a long time, since at least the Friday the 13th 1975 tornado.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 08, 2019, 10:07:25 PM
ValentineWeather, +5 and Wind Chill minus 12 here. Cold going out to measure precip for CoCoRaHS this morning!

I saw you got below zero this morning. -18 and -19 here also. Been much colder before and not really close to the record for date of -28.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 09, 2019, 04:41:10 AM
Apparently in anticipation of heavy rains in Tennessee, TVA is dumping Lake Barkley:

Code: [Select]
Day and Hour Reservoir Elevation (behind dam)* Tailwater Elevation (below dam)* Average Hourly Discharge*
2/7/2019 1 AM CST 354.10 322.50 58,100
2/9/2019 12 AM CST 355.05 333.65 125,600

Outflow is more than doubled in the last two days.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 09, 2019, 04:47:09 AM
Kentucky Dam flow rates are somehow scaled differently, but they've also increased flow significantly:

Code: [Select]
Day and Hour Reservoir Elevation (behind dam)* Tailwater Elevation (below dam)* Average Hourly Discharge*
2/7/2019 1 AM CST 353.96 318.35 125,437
2/9/2019 2 AM CST 354.81 323.73 157,820
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 09, 2019, 04:52:34 AM
For both:

"Elevations are in feet above sea level. Discharges are in cubic feet per second "

125,000 cubic feet per second is a whole bunch of water.



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 09, 2019, 07:18:21 AM
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 AM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

...Extended period of moderate to heavy rain possible Sunday night
through Monday night...

Confidence is increasing that periods of moderate to occasionally
heavy rain could produce from 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over much
of the quad state region Sunday through Monday night. Locally
higher amounts would also be possible. With fairly wet soil
conditions already in place, this rain could lead to another round
of areal flooding in many locations. In addition, the rainfall
could serve to exacerbate the on-going river flooding across much
of the region. If forecast confidence continues to grow as the
system approaches, flood watches will likely be needed in future
forecasts.

$$

MEFFERT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
430 AM CST Sat Feb 9 2019


This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A light wintry mix of precipitation is expected late tonight over
all except southern portions of western Kentucky. A period of
light freezing rain is also expected. Please see the winter
weather advisory product for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A light wintry mix of precipitation is expected Sunday morning
over all except southern portions of western Kentucky. A period of
light freezing rain is also expected. Please see the winter
weather advisory product for more information.

Heavy rains are expected to return to much of the region Sunday
night through Monday night. From 2 to 4 inches of rain are now
anticipated over most areas, with locally higher amounts possible.
Not only could this lead to areal flooding, it could also
exacerbate the on-going river flooding across much of the quad
state region.

Levels will rise on several area rivers through the week, with
light to moderate flooding expected to develop at numerous
points.


$$



Happy Me --  Not.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 09, 2019, 09:00:03 AM
We have had a snowy week, and the snowblower got a workout — clearing the driveway, paths to the woodshed and workshop, not to mention an area for the dog to do her “business”.   And what else?  Ah, a trail to the weather stations!

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 09, 2019, 04:40:06 PM
We have had a snowy week, and the snowblower got a workout — clearing the driveway, paths to the woodshed and workshop, not to mention an area for the dog to do her “business”.   And what else?  Ah, a trail to the weather stations!

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Cool pic, I want that much snow here but very unlikely.  It's not even nickel and dime snowfalls more like pennies when it snows.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 10, 2019, 08:06:21 AM
The February full Snow Moon is coming up next week.  Native Americans called it the Hunger Moon because food in the wild is harder to find this time of year.  The Minnesota Dept. of Natural Resources keeps track of the number of days with below-zero temperatures and the depth of snow in each county to determine the effects of severe weather on the state’s deer population.

Deer eat woody browse—leaves, twigs and buds—in winter, but many folks put out whole or cracked corn as a supplement and also like to watch the whitetails as they come into the yard.  I don’t feed deer any more, but did for years.  A half dozen whitetails usually waited for me on the edge of the woods when I stepped outside to make my way to the shop, where I kept the corn.  One deer always seemed determined to be the first to claim one of the little piles of corn I had scattered about.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 10, 2019, 09:09:43 AM
^^  I take it you're in some winter part of Australia?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 10, 2019, 11:50:23 AM
^^  I take it you're in some winter part of Australia?

Sorry.  Photo was OK on Ipad but upside down on PC. I removed it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 10, 2019, 12:27:26 PM
Snowing here again. 2-4 today .  another 2-4 Tuesday. Getting tough to find places for some to put snow.

Have to watch my neighbor to make sure he does not take his snow and push it on my property with his four wheeler and blade. He has already proven he does not care about others.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on February 10, 2019, 02:05:51 PM
^^  I take it you're in some winter part of Australia?

Sorry.  Photo was OK on Ipad but upside down on PC. I removed it.

I enjoyed the photo. Tame deer. Thanks for sharing!  I used my imagination on the orientation of the picture so it worked out.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 10, 2019, 02:34:40 PM
^^  I take it you're in some winter part of Australia?

Sorry.  Photo was OK on Ipad but upside down on PC. I removed it.

I enjoyed the photo. Tame deer. Thanks for sharing!  I used my imagination on the orientation of the picture so it worked out.
Post it again bks97 , easy fix with most photo editors, simple rotation.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 10, 2019, 02:42:02 PM
I’ll try.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Ski Pro 3 on February 10, 2019, 03:57:19 PM
Over 10', yes, that's FEET of snow in the past week in the South Lake Tahoe area ski resort of Sierra At Tahoe that I live near.  It's been amazing to go to bed after shoving the walks and wake up to an additional 3' in the morning and start all over again. 
The snow cam at Squaw Valley showed the groomer diving into his work, actually porposing up and down into the snow, snow fully covering him as if he was a mole burrowing under ground.  Ha! 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on February 10, 2019, 04:10:30 PM
Over 10', yes, that's FEET of snow in the past week in the South Lake Tahoe area ski resort of Sierra At Tahoe that I live near.  It's been amazing to go to bed after shoving the walks and wake up to an additional 3' in the morning and start all over again. 
The snow cam at Squaw Valley showed the groomer diving into his work, actually porposing up and down into the snow, snow fully covering him as if he was a mole burrowing under ground.  Ha!
I've been here and there, but that's one of, if not the most beautiful place I've ever been.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 10, 2019, 05:31:17 PM


Thu 21 Feb  44°  15°
Fri 22 Feb  30° 8°
Sat 23 Feb  40° 5°


Well, I hope that doesn't happen, but I guess we'll know on the 24th.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 10, 2019, 07:15:31 PM
In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 10, 2019, 07:27:39 PM
I watch that almost daily.  It's been waffling a bit.  Same with the one month.


For anyone not familiar with those charts, they show the percentage of possibility of being above or below average, NOT the amount of deviation.  A 50% chance of being below average doesn't mean the temps will be 50% below average.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 10, 2019, 09:27:45 PM
I’ll try.  Thanks.

Thanks, I got it. I saw this the other day... Looks like you have some well-fed deer.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 11, 2019, 10:29:45 PM
Great picture of shelf cloud as viewed in southwest Oklahoma from this afternoon, 2/11/19, received by meteorologist Emily Sutton of KFOR-4, Oklahoma City. The weakened activity with some thunder now making its way through north central Oklahoma.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/wallcloudswok.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 16, 2019, 05:55:30 PM
The current short term graphics from CPC make the central corridor states look like some kind of evil battleground between cold and warm.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 18, 2019, 05:03:23 AM
Low sunspot activity results continue.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 18, 2019, 07:14:14 PM
We are at 4th on the list for the snowiest February. 22.6 inches

We will surpass it this week  26.5 in.

Looking for at least 4 on Wednesday and 6 or more next weekend. 
There is a lot on the ground now. My neighbor and I are having issues on where to put snow. Our houses and driveways are 15 feet away from each other. Snow is high.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 18, 2019, 07:21:09 PM
Even Arizona is getting hammered.  Today son sent some images of 7" they received and more coming. I'll include the Flagstaff statement of additional snowfall this week. Page is a desert community on the border of Utah. Big snowfalls are rare, 7" is considered rare.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Aardvark on February 19, 2019, 04:47:54 PM
Des Moines, IA got 9 inches on Sunday, and we are slated for another 9 inches.   Normally for this time of the year our total is about 22 inches, but after tonight we willl exceed the 40 inch record.  Damn it is good to be retired and stay at home.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 19, 2019, 05:13:39 PM
In the mean time, we're 4 inches above normal for rainfall and due for another 2-3 tonight and yet another possible 2-3 this weekend.  Cracking the top 4 wettest Februarys in within range.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on February 19, 2019, 06:22:05 PM
In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on February 19, 2019, 10:14:32 PM
It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today.  :o
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 20, 2019, 11:41:28 AM
^^^   From the looks of things, you're about to get hammered again.  All of that will go into the Cumberland and Tennessee which with further fill the two lakes on the other thread.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 20, 2019, 07:06:11 PM
Almost the whole lower 48 is well below normal. I'm running -14° mean temperature below normal this month.
Any thoughts about low sunspot activity? I've always felt this was the main player with climate, along with ocean currents as a secondary player.   
Some scientist have been predicting a mini ice-age by the 2030's similar to the Maunder Minimum a 70-year period between 1645 and 1715.
Normally these low sunspot activities occur on about 11-year cycle but are short term and don't last. But in about 13 years these scientists predict a long term reduction in sunspot activity bringing on severe cold winters for several decades.  Thoughts?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 20, 2019, 08:25:32 PM
In Oklahoma, snowfall forecasts are always a big challenge. While the blue areas hit hardest were forecast well, the region in white was a disappointment. There, the freezing rain kept the snow totals down.

(https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/52970994_2393610040658409_5900068970483941376_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_eui2=AeFVW9nAfeXlm4nk-xkc48O_6yFnTZy9sTIoKO7ZQK8lUkjktJWBReemjiXmFWVs4ZhH48vbi63fbxyOi3VDF6WeAXFJoQgtY-5oznIUg45Gmw&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=31e2b3cd03296ac8ad37e4c83327af89&oe=5D1F4193)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 20, 2019, 08:47:18 PM
 
@NWSTwinCities
Following Following @NWSTwinCities
More
Snowfall reports through 6pm for our main observation sites:

NWS Chanhassen: 9.3"
MSP: 8.9"
St. Cloud: 7.3"
Eau Claire (thru 4:15pm): 4.8"

More in other places in the state
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 21, 2019, 11:07:48 AM
Today was the 19th day of going below 0°F (-9°) and (-11°) around town this morning with 9 occurring month of February. Still more on the way. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on February 21, 2019, 02:25:08 PM
Thought this was really beautiful. May see that myself tonight/tomorrow morning.

https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2019/02/1862/1048/vegassnow1.jpg?ve=1&tl=1
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 22, 2019, 06:51:24 AM
"If you get a lot of rain tonight and Saturday, then we want to hear about it! Don't forget to send your rainfall or flooding reports to us or your local law enforcement agency. "


'Hooterville Police Department, Officer Krupke speaking, how can we do you fer?'

'This is Joe Carson, over to the Shady Rest, we got 3 inches of rain.'

'Joe, you silly old coot, you do this again, I'll run you in for sure!!'

'But this is what the weather people said to do....'


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on February 22, 2019, 01:49:47 PM
Thought this was really beautiful. May see that myself tonight/tomorrow morning.

https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2019/02/1862/1048/vegassnow1.jpg?ve=1&tl=1
Indeed it is! I'm at about an inch, big, wet flakes, and still coming down, but it's pretty much melting at the same rate as it is snowing. We don't get to see this very often. Wish I knew how to post a pic with my first smart phone (yes, it's true) I just bought...Beautiful!

...SNOWFALL WILL AFFECT EASTERN PIMA...SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM...WESTERN
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

At 1021 AM MST, snowfall was affecting Tucson and surrounding areas,
including Tucson International Airport and Davis-Monthan Air Force
Base. Snowfall is expected to continue for the next 1 to 2 hours
with accumulations up to 3 inches.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on February 22, 2019, 10:36:22 PM
^^^   From the looks of things, you're about to get hammered again.  All of that will go into the Cumberland and Tennessee which with further fill the two lakes on the other thread.

Since Sunday morning, 2/17/19 I've reported 3.75 inches of rain.

Since Tuesday morning, 1/1/19 I've reported 15.72 inches of rain.

There's more coming tomorrow night.  I might build an ark.  :o

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 23, 2019, 03:43:32 AM
Back section of road was flooded about the 14th.

Front section was blocked by flood waters on the 20th.

Front may remain blocked until the 10th.  Possibly later.

Back could be another week after that.



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 23, 2019, 06:55:55 AM
You know what's really nuts?

Moderate Risk of severe storms, major flooding, heavy snow risk, blizzard warning and critical fire danger all within a few hundred miles of each other in a few states.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on February 23, 2019, 08:18:39 AM
Almost the whole lower 48 is well below normal. I'm running -14° mean temperature below normal this month.
Any thoughts about low sunspot activity? I've always felt this was the main player with climate, along with ocean currents as a secondary player.   
Some scientist have been predicting a mini ice-age by the 2030's similar to the Maunder Minimum a 70-year period between 1645 and 1715.
Normally these low sunspot activities occur on about 11-year cycle but are short term and don't last. But in about 13 years these scientists predict a long term reduction in sunspot activity bringing on severe cold winters for several decades.  Thoughts?
Hard to know for sure Randy.
Obviously the lower 48 being below normal is because the the polar jet dipped south. What causes that is a whole other conversation. On the other hand I am way above normal for February. As a matter of fact I only hit freezing one time this winter, 32.9.  A whole lot of things go into the soup that is our climate.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on February 23, 2019, 09:54:58 AM
Meanwhile, the overnight low here was a chilly 58.3F (62.1F att), as we await what looks to be a dry front in the next hour (a W/NW -foehn/adiabatic wind- downslope frontal sys). That front, unlike most, is going to really warm up and dry out the atmo, with highs in the mid-70's this afternoon (brrrr).

Ocala (@#474), exactly, while the disturbed polar vortex and jet streams have brought colder/snowier-than-usual WX to many parts of the continental US, a very small part of Terra, many other parts of the world are having much warmer than average conditions. Particularly the polar regions, which are and will have grave consequences for all of us.
Meanwhile VW puts up the usual strawman arguments and "some scientists" say (on FauxNooz) BS blinded diversionary PR hype as a foil.

Here, compare current US 'heartland' temps and WX with those of some of the northernmost outposts on the continent (500-600 miles from the North Pole), on Ellesmere Island, Nunavit, Canada (Alert and Eureka/PEARL):
 https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-22_metric_e.html (https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-22_metric_e.html)

 http://www.candac.ca/candacweb/content/pearl-weather-station (http://www.candac.ca/candacweb/content/pearl-weather-station) .
I was sort of watching them a few weeks ago when that 'mini-ice age' hit the US midwest and east. Temps and conditions up there were actually much milder than down yonder, hmmm. (a number of them even have WU pages too)

Real scientists, real data: The whole International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) Arctic WX sites:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/iasoa/obs_tour (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/iasoa/obs_tour)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: jas340 on February 23, 2019, 10:25:52 AM
I really like this topic on regional weather. The thing is, many times I have no idea where posters actually live. Frustrating. I ask that you put your city and state in your profile section. Thanks.

http://horseshoebendidahoweather.com/template/indexDesktop.php
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 23, 2019, 05:31:11 PM
Big snow. Nebraska blizzard. Iowa snow and worse.
Moving in later. Mixed bag of mess. We have a lot of family here for one kids musical. Not sure if anyone is going North or South tomorrow.

BTW-the kid is amazing. Sings, dances, emotions. The whole package.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on February 23, 2019, 07:41:09 PM
In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.

You're getting up there with DanS for warm temperatures in the winter.  Am I correct that temps in the 80s are unusual for FL in Feb?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on February 23, 2019, 07:51:17 PM
It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today.  :o

From last Saturday the 16th until this morning at 7:00 am, I had reported 6.07 in. rain to CoCoRaHS.  From 7:00 am this morning until now (7:46 pm) I have recorded 2.37 in. rain for a grand total (so far) of 8.44 in. rain.  There is widespread flooding, landslides and trees falling everywhere.  They are predicting a tornado watch (tornado not likely but high winds are expected) later and more rain as the front approaches.

Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and warm.  It will be interesting to see what the rain total is after all is said and done.

I hate to think of what it would be like if it was snow.  I'm really glad it's not snow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on February 23, 2019, 09:18:37 PM
In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.

You're getting up there with DanS for warm temperatures in the winter.  Am I correct that temps in the 80s are unusual for FL in Feb?

Not at all, 80s are more the Feb norm in FL, often in S TX too. Checked my own Feb 2018 WU data table and the month's high was 84.2Fdeg, with a 59F average. Have seen temps in the 100-107F range in all months, incl winter here too, in the past.

A good place to see it visualized is at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) links, the "Regional Climate Maps: USA" here:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/usa.shtml#monthly (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/usa.shtml#monthly)  .

You can select weekly, monthly, 3mo, yearly climate periods for average temps, precip, extremes, departures, etc., in color-coded graphic form for the whole USA.
Look over the temp and 'departure from normal' maps for any time interval to get an idea. Like for FL, if the temp normal is already approaching 70 or 80, and the departure map shows a 4deg cooler than average for the same period, you can figure that a 'normal ave' would be higher.

If you go to this sublink, the '1 month Archives', you can select any month for various years. Somehow, 2015 is the last year available, maybe processing later ones has been cut off by recent malicious budget cuts to NOAA's budget? (Jan 2019 is available in the 'current' pages at above link)

NOAA's CPC USA Monthly Graphics Archive:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1-month-archive.shtml (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1-month-archive.shtml)

Of course, all the actual, real, scientific gathered weather data (some from CWOP-MADIS reporting by many here?) in various numerical forms is also available from the CPC, and the rest of NOAA, and can be dug out with varying levels of effort.
But the above links show more usable, readable, graphics (interesting too) derived from all that raw data.

It's all the way down to 63.7F here now, after reaching only 74.2F, dang; but it sure dried out, DP is 39.5F, humidity only 41% .
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 24, 2019, 07:56:33 AM
Hey weathernerds, another question.....


It FINALLY quit raining, at least for a few days.  Sun will be returning later today or tomorrow.  In the mean time, high winds.  Ground is beyond saturated to the point of squishy, like a sopping wet sponge left in the bottom of the sink with the faucet dripping.

I'm on top of a gravel hill and I can usually see water running down the mole hole trails for a few days after a normal heavy rain.

We all know Sun helps to dry soil.  But surface winds also help dry soil, correct?   So between drainage, Sun and wind, I might be able to walk around my yard without sinking in some time soon?  Maybe by .... oh ....  June?

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on February 24, 2019, 10:24:53 AM
In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.

You're getting up there with DanS for warm temperatures in the winter.  Am I correct that temps in the 80s are unusual for FL in Feb?
Hey Gregg
That mean temp mentioned above is now 67.3. A very warm month so far.
80's are common in February but they are usually lower 80's and it usually just a few days. This warm spell has been different. Almost 89 yesterday at 88.7. Getting daily notices from the Jacksonville office about records being tied or surpassed for temp and dew point.
But really the mid portion of February is the start of our spring. Most trees are flowering and have the spring green leaves already. A cold front is due tonight that will get us back to the 70's/50's.
Hurricane season starts in just over 3 months.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: SlowModem on February 24, 2019, 10:55:55 AM
It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today.  :o

From last Saturday the 16th until this morning at 7:00 am, I had reported 6.07 in. rain to CoCoRaHS.  From 7:00 am this morning until now (7:46 pm) I have recorded 2.37 in. rain for a grand total (so far) of 8.44 in. rain.  There is widespread flooding, landslides and trees falling everywhere.  They are predicting a tornado watch (tornado not likely but high winds are expected) later and more rain as the front approaches.

Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and warm.  It will be interesting to see what the rain total is after all is said and done.

I hate to think of what it would be like if it was snow.  I'm really glad it's not snow.

So from Saturday the 16th until this morning ended up being 9.33 inches of rain.  So far in February, there's been 12.7 in.  That's' a whole lot of water.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on February 24, 2019, 11:07:27 AM
It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today.  :o

From last Saturday the 16th until this morning at 7:00 am, I had reported 6.07 in. rain to CoCoRaHS.  From 7:00 am this morning until now (7:46 pm) I have recorded 2.37 in. rain for a grand total (so far) of 8.44 in. rain.  There is widespread flooding, landslides and trees falling everywhere.  They are predicting a tornado watch (tornado not likely but high winds are expected) later and more rain as the front approaches.

Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and warm.  It will be interesting to see what the rain total is after all is said and done.

I hate to think of what it would be like if it was snow.  I'm really glad it's not snow.

So from Saturday the 16th until this morning ended up being 9.33 inches of rain.  So far in February, there's been 12.7 in.  That's' a whole lot of water.
Rivers must be raging.
My brother lives a little SW of you in Scottsboro,AL. He also said it's been crazy wet.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 24, 2019, 11:33:13 AM
That's' a whole lot of water.
Rivers must be raging.

Yeah, see the Math Question thread.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 24, 2019, 01:22:20 PM
Starting to hear complaints from Nebraskan's, the relentless cold and snow is getting old. We may be getting down into the -25° (-32C)  range even into March.  Tomorrow will struggle to get above 0°f.

Snapshot of Euro on March 5th.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 24, 2019, 04:16:25 PM
Strong northwest winds are creating whiteout conditions today in open areas across Minnesota. There is a lot of snow on the ground to blow around (more than 2 feet in many places).  Many roads are closed, and the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that dozens of people have had to be rescued from stranded vehicles.

Temperatures have been dropping all day, and tonight will dip to about -20 in our area, the start of a cold week ahead.

Appropriately, the Star Tribune also has a story today about a cold weather auto testing facility in Baudette, up on the Canadian border.  Major car manufacturers send their vehicles up there to be tested in winter conditions.  This will be another good week for that!

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 24, 2019, 06:36:18 PM
I need an idea of current snow depths anywhere north of Missouri that will flow into the Mississippi once it begins to melt.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on February 24, 2019, 06:45:02 PM
I need an idea of current snow depths anywhere north of Missouri that will flow into the Mississippi once it begins to melt.

Residents along the Red River of the North separating Minnesota and North Dakota also are closely monitoring the spring flood potential there.

https://www.weather.gov/fgf/weatherstory
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 24, 2019, 07:09:27 PM
http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/Snow-Depth-US.htm

I am sure my kid will be sand bagging in Fargo when classes are cancelled.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 24, 2019, 07:13:43 PM
It's gonna get real REAL if this stuff doesn't go down before that stuff starts to get past St. Louis.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: floodcaster on February 24, 2019, 08:17:47 PM
I need an idea of current snow depths anywhere north of Missouri that will flow into the Mississippi once it begins to melt.

What you need to monitor is the snow water equivalent(SWE) values. For the latest Spring flood outlook for the upper Miss basin see:
https://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_ROF_NFP_SpringHydroOutlook
Note: this was issued before winter storm system that is affecting the midwest this weekend. Their next update will be issued 3/7. In the meantime, keep up with the latest SWE values from NOHRSC at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/   (the interactive maps menu option lets you zoom in for more detail).
Also CoCoRaHS (https://www.cocorahs.org/) maps provide snow depth and SWE data.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 24, 2019, 08:39:51 PM
Quote
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE
Overall, the flood risk for this drainage area is above to much above normal.

The fall started out on the mild side, with above normal temperatures seen across the Upper Mississippi River basin. But, a pattern shift brought cooler than normal temperatures for November. Another pattern shift resulted in warmer than normal temperatures through December and into early January, with readings 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The region went into the deep freeze after mid January with a lengthy cold outbreak and temperatures plunging into the 20s and 30s below zero. This cold trend has continued so far through February. Some areas have seen temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal with most areas reporting at least 10 degrees below normal. Many records were either tied or broken January 30 through February 1. Of note, parts of northwestern Minnesota saw 24 consecutive hours at or below minus 25 degrees.

The fall was generally wet across the drainage. September rainfall was 200 to 300 percent of normal from Iowa and southern Minnesota, into southern Wisconsin, but it was a little below normal for central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. The wet trend continued into October for areas from northern Missouri and eastern Iowa, up into Wisconsin, with 2 to 3 times the normal amount. November and December saw near normal precipitation. January precipitation was below normal across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, but it was much wetter, from northern Missouri through the northern half of Illinois, and the southern half of Wisconsin where about twice the normal amount was recorded. So far in February, precipitation has been way above the norm...as much as 3 to 4 times the usual amount for Minnesota and Wisconsin, and 2 to 3 times from Iowa into Illinois and Indiana.

Snowfall across southern Iowa, the northern half of Missouri, and western and northern Illinois has been much above normal so far this winter. And for Minnesota into Wisconsin, February has seen the highest amount of snowfall on record. As of February 20th, snowfall has been 2 to 3 times the typical amount for the winter season. Current snow cover is highest in an area from North Dakota, through Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Depths of 1 to 2 feet are common. Further south, snow is also more widespread than in a typical year, with 1 to 4 inches seen all the way down into southern Missouri and Illinois. Snow depth between 6 and 12 inches is common from Iowa into northern Illinois.

Water equivalent in the snow in the northern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin are near 6 inches. Liquid equivalent of 3 to 6 inches is prevalent over a widespread area from North Dakota and Minnesota over to Wisconsin. Water amounts of 1 to 2 inches extend from Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Water in the snow cover is generally less than an inch from Missouri across most of Illinois and Indiana. Overall, this amount of snow water equivalent seen across the region is well above normal.

Not looking good at all.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 25, 2019, 01:32:33 PM
A few of the NWS pages haven't been loading all that well in the last day or so.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 25, 2019, 01:36:34 PM
Many roads in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin still closed.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 25, 2019, 01:59:46 PM
https://twitter.com/blaisekellerr/status/1100065677682057216?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 26, 2019, 02:07:53 PM
Winter weather getting crazy for this time of year in Oklahoma. KFOR-4, OKC Chief Meteorologist Mike Morgan said the March 1-5 period will be coldest since 1960. Low may get down to the single digits for the coldest this winter. Many Oklahomans think the entire winter has sucked for how persistent the Arctic blasts has been.  We can't get 60s to last any longer than a day without another Arctic blast wiping them out.  At least no record lows have been set this winter, so far.  We'll see next week, though.  Fortunately, nothing major in the forecasts for freezing precipitation. But it doesn't take much icy weather, like freezing rain,  to make the roads slick and dangerous.    Arctic front no. 1 past through this morning.

Arctic front no. 1 temps at 12:30 PM 2/26/2019:
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/pic2.jpg)

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/pic1.jpg)




Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 02:14:18 PM

Not a lot of MSM coverage how cold it's been.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 26, 2019, 02:43:12 PM
Not sorry LA.
Father in Law in Palm Spring says it was cool there too. May not have been 80 this winter.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on February 26, 2019, 03:02:08 PM
No doubt. The west and southwest have been under the influence of trough after trough after trough since basically mid Nov. I can't recall more cloudy days, more below normal temps than I have this season, and I've been here 30 years now. Finally, we have something called a 'ridge', I think, starting to dominate our weather with mid to upper 70's as the week progresses. The rain has been nice, but certainly good to see some 'seasonable' weather for a change.  =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 03:02:44 PM
Not sorry LA.
Father in Law in Palm Spring says it was cool there too. May not have been 80 this winter.

Las Vegas has had 5 different snow days this winter.
Today we were supposed to reach into the teens but only 6° at 2pm. I'm about ready to call out UNCLE myself, as much as I enjoy winter you can get cabin fever after awhile.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 03:30:32 PM
No doubt. The west and southwest have been under the influence of trough after trough after trough since basically mid Nov. I can't recall more cloudy days, more below normal temps than I have this season, and I've been here 30 years now. Finally, we have something called a 'ridge', I think, starting to dominate our weather with mid to upper 70's as the week progresses. The rain has been nice, but certainly good to see some 'seasonable' weather for a change.  =D>

I saw Flagstaff set an all-time daily snow record last week. 36" or something like that, goes back 100 years. That was impressive. For those unfamiliar with Arizona Flagstaff is a mountain community of about 100k population 7000' elevation. I lived north of Flag for over 40 years.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 26, 2019, 03:53:51 PM
And yet, we've had an extremely mild Winter.  Like I mentioned a few pages back, looking at the CPC outlooks, it seems there has been a significant dividing line somewhere around the Mississippi river up to Indiana or so.  Cold west and north of there, warm east and south.

For us, October, December, January and February have all been above normal.  November was below.

We've had very little snow, maybe a couple of 3 inchers.  But we've had tons of rain.  The ground has stayed mostly muddy with very few mornings it froze a bit.  Only a few days has it stayed frozen all day.  My outdoor fish pond has had almost no ice on it all Winter except for a few days in November.





Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 26, 2019, 03:58:14 PM
Forecast is showing a cold snap the 3rd to the 6th however, so we'll see what happens.  Nothing extreme though.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 04:24:12 PM
And yet, we've had an extremely mild Winter. 

Nothing mild about it up here, we started getting snow October 6". If you look at the means for our cold 5 months Oct-Feb. we are running -19° so far.  March doesn't look promising either at least for first couple weeks being forecast below normal. So won't be surprised to be around -25° through March.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 26, 2019, 05:26:16 PM
Not sorry LA.
Father in Law in Palm Spring says it was cool there too. May not have been 80 this winter.

Las Vegas has had 5 different snow days this winter.
Today we were supposed to reach into the teens but only 6° at 2pm. I'm about ready to call out UNCLE myself, as much as I enjoy winter you can get cabin fever after awhile.

That was the title of this article in the Fort Dodge Iowa paper.

http://www.messengernews.net/news/local-news/2019/02/uncle/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on February 26, 2019, 05:29:58 PM
And yet, we've had an extremely mild Winter.  Like I mentioned a few pages back, looking at the CPC outlooks, it seems there has been a significant dividing line somewhere around the Mississippi river up to Indiana or so.  Cold west and north of there, warm east and south.
Exactly for the reason mentioned above. The long term pattern has been an amplified jet stream (not unusual in winter) with troughs consistently over the west/sw and the east/south with the ridges all season. Usually we share, not this time.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 05:33:03 PM
Not sorry LA.
Father in Law in Palm Spring says it was cool there too. May not have been 80 this winter.

Las Vegas has had 5 different snow days this winter.
Today we were supposed to reach into the teens but only 6° at 2pm. I'm about ready to call out UNCLE myself, as much as I enjoy winter you can get cabin fever after awhile.

That was the title of this article in the Fort Dodge Iowa paper.

http://www.messengernews.net/news/local-news/2019/02/uncle/

What a mess, worse than here.
You know its bad when "The snow was so bad, Wright County Engineer Adam Clemons said, the plow trucks were pulled off the roads."   [tup]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 05:43:53 PM
And the beat goes on, the first 4 days of March. Discussion says the 23° may be overly optimistic Friday. I'm sure it is like the 17 for today was, we weren't close at 9°.
Mind you normal is 42° for high early March.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 26, 2019, 06:15:46 PM
I think I stated before, I'm more than a wee bit concerned about what will happen down stream when all that snow begins to melt.  I know you want spring up there, but I almost hate to say, I hope the warm up is slow enough so it doesn't all melt in a short time.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on February 26, 2019, 06:48:33 PM
Valentine--true.  There is a train stuck in Southern Minnesota.
My sister was supposed to drive back to DSM Sunday. They left today.

MPLS to DSM  5 hours.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 26, 2019, 08:06:56 PM
I think I stated before, I'm more than a wee bit concerned about what will happen down stream when all that snow begins to melt.  I know you want spring up there, but I almost hate to say, I hope the warm up is slow enough so it doesn't all melt in a short time.

Slow is good.  [tup]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on February 26, 2019, 08:46:16 PM
Pretty much right on normal down here, the CLM reports have the 'temp departure from normal' and averages at about +1F. IOW, the usual pleasant WX, which alternates here with the passages of various frontal systems, warm a few days (highs 70-80's), cooler a few more.
Normal all around the area, checked a few F-6's, etc., and the graph below shows the dailies just bouncing around in the average band. Not that some years haven't trended to the extremes.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on February 26, 2019, 09:02:42 PM
Beginning to see winter this way

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TReCZ2auRkE
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on February 27, 2019, 02:12:56 PM
In Stillwater late this morning, the streets and bridges generally weren't bad from the freezing mist or drizzle. Evidently, the street
surfaces were still above freezing from highs being in the low 60s on Monday. Temps this morning got a little lower than expected.  Stillwater Civil Defense Director took another tour of the streets here:

https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/2001524866816940/?multi_permalinks=2085717278185451%2C2085385461551966%2C2085696231520889%2C2085688861521626%2C2085652481525264&notif_id=1551268722547410&notif_t=group_activity (https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/2001524866816940/?multi_permalinks=2085717278185451%2C2085385461551966%2C2085696231520889%2C2085688861521626%2C2085652481525264&notif_id=1551268722547410&notif_t=group_activity)

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on February 27, 2019, 06:34:54 PM
Aaahhhhhh... not quite paradise, but it'll do for now. Fired up the house aircon (again).
The weeds and grass (charitably speaking, it doesn't do all that well on a giant sand dune and limestone) are going crazy.
Gonna give up on the old Craftsman lawn tractor for now, going to get one of those neat Ryobi 100ah battery-powered electric tractors.
Add a few more solar panels (make a nice 'shed' over the parked tractor), then have hardly any maintenance and NO fuel, filters, oil, plugs, or belts needed; just the usual blade sharpening and tire repairs.
Quiet, no fumes or heat, powerful. About $25 worth of electricity per year to keep it charged from an outlet, solar is free; and there is a 'right' way to treat SLA batteries to make them last 5-7+ years.


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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: vreihen on February 28, 2019, 07:16:17 AM
FYI, there are DIY kits available to do an electric conversion on most gas-powered lawn tractors, and they sell for $2,000 less than the Ryobi tractor.....
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on February 28, 2019, 08:42:07 AM
63 Tuesday, 61 yesterday, forecast to barely make 35 today.


Brief warmup for a couple of days, then into the freeze for Monday and Tuesday, barely making 30, if at all.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jstx on February 28, 2019, 01:29:50 PM
FYI, there are DIY kits available to do an electric conversion on most gas-powered lawn tractors, and they sell for $2,000 less than the Ryobi tractor.....

Thanks for pointing that out, interesting. I can't see such conversions costing less than the $700-900 difference in price though. The Ryobi 100Ah/48V is ~$2.9K, around $1K more than a comparable gas unit. But the benefits (as partially covered above post) make it worth to me ATT: no fuel, oil, belts, etc.; keep it plugged into the charger, don't take the batts below 50% discharge, etc., and it's almost hassle-free, hopefully reliable and durable, hell at my age one of my kids will enjoy it for years :]... (recently got an SUV, the 'Burban is tired, would have jumped at an EV or Hybrid one at a reasonable price, but those few available are still way too pricey for me, and seem small compared to the ol' K1500 GMC 'burban).
The batteries alone (SLA AGM or gel deep cycle, 300-400Ah total cap, 4 12V batts in series) cost almost that much (I know: use cheaper golf cart batts instead...still $4-500/set last time I checked). Plus the cost of the drive and deck motors, wiring and controls...
Rather place an order, get the pallet delivered (700#), unpack and put it together, charge it, and cut away.
PS: Consumer Reports did a review a while ago, don't know if the link will work for y'all, might have to be a subscriber:
https://www.consumerreports.org/lawn-tractors/ryobi-r48110-electric-riding-lawn-mower-is-worth-a-look/ (https://www.consumerreports.org/lawn-tractors/ryobi-r48110-electric-riding-lawn-mower-is-worth-a-look/)

I know because I've wanted to refit my diesel aux powered sailboat for years to an electric auxiliary, and have watched the topic (complicated) and market fairly closely. The electric conversion systems on the (boat) market are still way too expensive for me (batts + propulsion), but with solar and wind gen, would be real nice to have.
If the Yanmar diesel itself needed replacing, the cost delta would improve to a 'maybe' (small marine diesels are often the same basic engine used in millions of land/construction uses, but are always much more $$$...).
Of course on a sailboat, an electric/diesel aux propulsion plant is just that- a secondary source, wind being primary, not so for a lawn mower. And yes, you can assemble and build your own electric propulsion and save a little money. Then there's the issue of lithium lifepo4 batts versus LA: $$$ v. $...

Besides, on my 20yo Craftsman 22hp lawn tractor the deck is becoming the main headache. The sand, very tough vegetation, heat, etc., here is rough on a mower.
It's time. Yes, I have both a gas and electric push mower, which is OK for trimming around the house, but getting old for the whole enchilada.

Dang, front this AM has it down in the 40's, maybe 50 something later today, but 70's tomorrow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 02, 2019, 09:37:38 AM
Weather person just said MPLS had 45 inches of snow in 29 days. 4th snowiest month ever recorded.

-12 below tonight with wind chill.

Thank god the sun in strong.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 02, 2019, 08:55:16 PM
This is March right?  7 day forecast more of the same.
Windchill warnings tomorrow (-35) struggling to get above 0° (-18c) on thermometer. -15° (-26c) below next couple nights. Feb ended 15 below normal mean temperature. 13 of 28 days went below zero...

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on March 02, 2019, 09:18:04 PM
Feb ended 15 below normal mean temperature.
:shock: That's nuts...and ain't gettin' no better.
Not to rub it in, I hit 83F today with upper 80's progged by Wed., but cooling off again next weekend.
 
You'll get there, someday...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 02, 2019, 09:27:49 PM
Feb ended 15 below normal mean temperature.
:shock: That's nuts...and ain't gettin' no better.
Not to rub it in, I hit 83F today with upper 80's progged by Wed., but cooling off again next weekend.
 
You'll get there, someday...

It is nuts... We are gaining almost 3 minutes of sunlight each day. Something has to give. Meanwhile I'm enjoying it.
Crazy we only ended around 7th coldest February ever but records go way back some 130 years.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: alanb on March 02, 2019, 10:50:42 PM
Weather person just said MPLS had 45 inches of snow in 29 days. 4th snowiest month ever recorded.

-12 below tonight with wind chill.

Thank god the sun in strong.
I am worried about the flooding potential this spring and early summer. A quick thaw with a couple of substantial spring rains could cause real trouble. I am in the Cedar Rapids area and the last thing we need is another disaster like we had in 2008.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Aardvark on March 03, 2019, 12:59:58 AM
Damn wind and cold. Sunday and Monday going to be very low wind chills the farther you go North.   

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ocala on March 03, 2019, 07:22:06 AM
Man you guys just cant get a break from winter up there.
Either it's freezing cold with snow or tons of rain.
Just boring weather down here in Fla. Don't get me wrong I like the seasonal temps and all but
the weather is very lame.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 03, 2019, 08:02:17 AM
Our seesaw effect goes on.  50s one day, then a dip.  Probably only 20s Monday, maybe Tuesday, then back to near 60 by the weekend.  Various precip in the forecasts which we do NOT need as roads are still flooded, going on two weeks now.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 03, 2019, 08:11:46 AM
Weather person just said MPLS had 45 inches of snow in 29 days. 4th snowiest month ever recorded.

-12 below tonight with wind chill.

Thank god the sun in strong.
I am worried about the flooding potential this spring and early summer. A quick thaw with a couple of substantial spring rains could cause real trouble. I am in the Cedar Rapids area and the last thing we need is another disaster like we had in 2008.

Flooding is going to be a problem, depending on how fast it warms up.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 03, 2019, 08:22:51 AM
If anyone does Cocorahs this would be a good time to do a core sample of moisture content so they know what to expect when the melting starts.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 03, 2019, 08:38:20 AM
This is what it looked like on low temperatures and snow depth for stations that measure only around Nebraska today. Valentine beat out by Gorden just to our west on low temp.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on March 03, 2019, 03:08:12 PM
For some perspective, just remember people that it won't be very long until we're bellyaching about the heat! :-P
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 04, 2019, 08:42:19 AM
Low temperature this station at 7:10 a.m. was minus 16. That is among the coldest I have seen for here. (I know that's a spring temperature in ND, but it is very cold here).
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 04, 2019, 09:10:05 AM
Low temperature this station at 7:10 a.m. was minus 16. That is among the coldest I have seen for here. (I know that's a spring temperature in ND, but it is very cold here).

Have you about had enough global warming?  :mrgreen:

North Platte NWS statement this morning:  At 5:24 CST, North Platte officially recorded a temperature of -25F, shattering the previous record of -17F set in 1960, and also beating the coldest temp EVER recorded in the month of March, which was -22F, set in 1960 and 2002!

Yesterday made it up to 3° here in Valentine.  =D>
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on March 04, 2019, 05:09:40 PM
From a forecast low of 8 and a wind chill advisory, public schools and OSU were closed in Stillwater on Monday.  Oklahoma City missed a record low by 1 degree.   Highs look to be in the 50s for a good stretch starting on Wednesday or Thursday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 07, 2019, 08:22:12 AM
I just want to express my appreciation to those ranchers raising COWS. Thankyou  =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 09, 2019, 08:45:43 AM
34 yesterday. Warmest temp in a month

8-12 inches today and tonight.
then rain this week. It will be one big fat mess.

Still not ready to post in the spring thread. Does not seem right.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 09, 2019, 09:08:59 AM
Snow removal at MSP airport.

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/msp-airport-travelers-preparing-for-snow/89-f28dde4b-8203-43c5-bfa1-8dec3f187cdd
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 09, 2019, 11:03:00 AM
34 yesterday. Warmest temp in a month

8-12 inches today and tonight.
then rain this week. It will be one big fat mess.

Still not ready to post in the spring thread. Does not seem right.

Ditto on temperature, first above freezing since Feb.13th.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 09, 2019, 04:32:35 PM
Two days of melting in a row. Water standing in places on the prairie. Only snow left here is the small drifts. Wind gusts to 40 today.
Good luck using the driveway.  :-(
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: JCA433 on March 10, 2019, 05:26:10 PM
The winter weather this year was very mild here even relative to average for south Florida.  The lowest temperature this winter was 40.5 F on JAN 21 and the highest 86.8 F on DEC 3. The average temperature for December was 69.2 F, January 65.6 F, February 72.2 F.  The average maximum temperature for December  79.1 F, January 76.8 F, February 82. 3 F.  The average minimum temperature  for December 59.9 F, January 55.6 F, February 63.5 F  The average minimum temperature for the winter(DEC thru FEB)59.6 F and average maximum 79.3 F  The average temperature for the winter 68.9 F. 

The total rainfall for December  2.69 in, January 2.80 in, and February 2.93 in.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on March 10, 2019, 05:47:38 PM
The effects of the melt are already showing up in Flood Gauge Forecasts:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=pah&gage=cpgm7

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 10, 2019, 07:39:19 PM
Two days of melting in a row. Water standing in places on the prairie. Only snow left here is the small drifts. Wind gusts to 40 today.
Good luck using the driveway.  :-(

You could see it on satellite melting today also. Southern Nebraska looked snow free.
We still have around 8" even after some melting. Highest is 21" in backyard drift. 

The forecast has 14-21" new possible over 3 days this week. I'll believe when I see it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 10, 2019, 07:54:23 PM
Forecast:
Wednesday
Freezing rain before 8am, then freezing rain and a chance of sleet between 8am and 9am, then sleet and a chance of freezing rain between 9am and 11am, then snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

Wednesday Night
 
Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of  8 to 12 inches possible.

Thursday
 
Snow before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 10, 2019, 11:14:00 PM
 :grin:

You need to put out a contract on that darn groundhog.

Just rain for this area, but might be a lot of rain.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on March 11, 2019, 12:31:12 AM
Nice looking doubled barreled low off the so-cal coast. Gonna be a wet couple of days down here as winter still hangs. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: vreihen on March 11, 2019, 06:13:26 AM
You need to put out a contract on that darn groundhog.

Last spring's warrant is still active.....

(https://images.hvtraffic.com/images/2018/03/23/20180323105623-64b8799e.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 11, 2019, 11:37:58 AM
WE have a lot of snow on the ground and are expecting 40's and 2 inches of rain this week.
Expect flooding in a lot of places this week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 11, 2019, 05:46:55 PM
Something North Platte NWS put out in forecaster discussion this afternoon.

: This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and abundant moisture resulting in very strong winds and heavy precipitation. Please monitor the latest forecast information.


Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on March 11, 2019, 07:59:47 PM
Something North Platte NWS put out in forecaster discussion this afternoon.

: This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and abundant moisture resulting in very strong winds and heavy precipitation. Please monitor the latest forecast information.
Wow, I just read your AFD. Taking a negative tilt, progged to drop to 972mb (that's 28.70" inHg :shock:). This could be a very bad boy for a lot of folks....
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 11, 2019, 09:20:06 PM
Something North Platte NWS put out in forecaster discussion this afternoon.

: This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and abundant moisture resulting in very strong winds and heavy precipitation. Please monitor the latest forecast information.
Wow, I just read your AFD. Taking a negative tilt, progged to drop to 972mb (that's 28.70" inHg :shock:). This could be a very bad boy for a lot of folks....

WOW, that is very low pressure.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 11, 2019, 11:07:53 PM
Something North Platte NWS put out in forecaster discussion this afternoon.

: This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and abundant moisture resulting in very strong winds and heavy precipitation. Please monitor the latest forecast information.
Wow, I just read your AFD. Taking a negative tilt, progged to drop to 972mb (that's 28.70" inHg :shock:). This could be a very bad boy for a lot of folks....

WOW, that is very low pressure.

I just read this same from HSI AFD. I am actually happy we are just looking at rain, plus the high wind watch. I see you are not in the blizzard warning...yet.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 12, 2019, 08:59:49 AM
Something North Platte NWS put out in forecaster discussion this afternoon.

: This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and abundant moisture resulting in very strong winds and heavy precipitation. Please monitor the latest forecast information.
Wow, I just read your AFD. Taking a negative tilt, progged to drop to 972mb (that's 28.70" inHg :shock:). This could be a very bad boy for a lot of folks....

WOW, that is very low pressure.

I just read this same from HSI AFD. I am actually happy we are just looking at rain, plus the high wind watch. I see you are not in the blizzard warning...yet.

We went into a blizzard warning overnight.
I'm not a trained meteorologist but can read models. My numbers look like minimum 7" snow backside after 6 pm, plus a period in front of 6 hours freezing rain or snow with the upper atmosphere above freezing so what falls is the big question. 
That could be bad if we get 1/2" ice before the snow kicks in around 6pm when the atmosphere is all snow. On top of this is heavy rain prior over frozen ground, flooding could occur plus wind forecast to reach 50 mph range.  It's just a big mess really.   
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 12, 2019, 09:13:34 AM
Our local weather office has trimmed precip amounts by 1/2 inch, now in the 1-1/2" range, but as they say "if's" remain. No rivers around here to add worry about flooding. Wind is still in the forecast for us esp on Thursday.

Get your milk and tp now before the rush hits!

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 12, 2019, 09:46:51 AM
Our local weather office has trimmed precip amounts by 1/2 inch, now in the 1-1/2" range, but as they say "if's" remain. No rivers around here to add worry about flooding. Wind is still in the forecast for us esp on Thursday.

Get your milk and tp now before the rush hits!

You are right 6 hour period of possible ice, could take the power lines down somewhere. Thanks for the reminder.  [tup]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: zackdog on March 12, 2019, 10:53:01 AM
Just happened to check my records, the last time I had a daily mean temperature above freezing was on November 2. 

Mark
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 12, 2019, 01:35:54 PM
Lots of potential variety in our area for weather: Flash Flood Watch, Dense Fog Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, High Wind Watch.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on March 12, 2019, 04:02:43 PM
Lots of potential variety in our area for weather: Flash Flood Watch, Dense Fog Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, High Wind Watch.

Yes, March seems to bring it all.  We are on the warmer side of the big system and are expected to have fog, rain, snow, freezing rain and blustery conditions Wednesday and Thursday.  We still have 2 feet or more of snow on the ground, so the rain will take some of it away but also may cause flooding in some areas. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 12, 2019, 05:40:34 PM

I don't know for sure, but the potential for spring flooding would seem to be high this year. Our snow is gone but frost is still coming out of the ground. Today it is 61. Have not seen that in awhile.

Be careful of that snow melt up there.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on March 12, 2019, 07:27:44 PM
Most of the state is under a flood watch.  Street flooding in cities and towns is a real concern, and some cities are asking residents to dig out storm sewers on their streets so the flow of water from the rain and melted snow isn’t blocked.  My wife and I live on high ground out in the country, so we’ll be OK.  I hired a crew of 3 young guys the other day to rake off snow along the edge of the our roof to prevent any ice dams from forming.  I used to do it myself but it’s hard work best left to younger folks.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on March 12, 2019, 09:29:02 PM
Article says central U.S. is about to get hit with a bomb cyclone.  So far for here just a high wind warning.  But a big line of thunderstorms now in New Mexico will be here by mid morning Wednesday.
https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-central-u-s-is-about-to-get-hit-with-a-bomb-cyclon-1833239904 (https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-central-u-s-is-about-to-get-hit-with-a-bomb-cyclon-1833239904)
 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on March 12, 2019, 09:52:15 PM
Article says central U.S. is about to get hit with a bomb cyclone.
Yes, minus the catchy name, we spoke of it yesterday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on March 12, 2019, 11:13:18 PM
Our local weather office has trimmed precip amounts by 1/2 inch, now in the 1-1/2" range, but as they say "if's" remain. No rivers around here to add worry about flooding. Wind is still in the forecast for us esp on Thursday.

Get your milk and tp now before the rush hits!

You are right 6 hour period of possible ice, could take the power lines down somewhere. Thanks for the reminder.  [tup]
Well, if the ice alone doesn't bring'em down, sure looks like the wind will help. Wed. 18Z, those isobars are getting mighty tight.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 13, 2019, 09:44:22 AM
Randy, Pressure 29.16 falling here at 8:43 cdt.

Just .62" since midnight. But water standing in some places.

Be careful of this one. You will really be under the gun.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 13, 2019, 11:45:12 AM
Thanks will do, 29.33 currently and been solid rain since about 4am  .75" so far, much more to come before snow kicks in around 4pm.

I've added a new tool called "The Rain Stake"
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: cospringswx on March 13, 2019, 12:34:34 PM
80 mph winds expected here with a foot of snow. I'm on the NE side of Colorado Springs.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: zackdog on March 13, 2019, 01:45:36 PM
My records for barometric pressure only go back 15 years, but this morning Cumulus told me I had a new record.  The Altimeter pressure hit a low of 29.124 inches at 7:54 this morning.  It is up to 29.174 now.  It has been snowing since 3:45 this morning.  At 7 am, when I took my CoCo readings, snow board was at 0.7" and Davis rain collector w/heater read 0.05" of rain.  Haven't ventured out to check snow board, but Davis is currently reading 0.48" of rain for the day.

Hey Randy, if you get your waders on to go check the "Rain Stake", could you tell me how far it is from the 3 Ft reading to the top point on the snowflake? :lol:  If it doesn't quit snowing soon, I am going to lose my Snow Stake.


Mark

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 13, 2019, 04:44:44 PM
96 mph wind gust in Colorado Springs

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1105914191347679236

Wind picture from hint.fm/wind
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 13, 2019, 04:53:43 PM
Pressure 28.91, still falling slowly. Not a personal record, having been in a major typhoon in '56. But still pretty low.

Spent most of the day in partly cloudy  conditions with the dry slot, but that is ending now.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: cospringswx on March 13, 2019, 05:42:07 PM
Uploaded a video

http://www.cospringsweather.com/31319blizzard.mp4
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 13, 2019, 06:03:50 PM
Nice looks like here right now.  [tup]
Mark I'm in waders for sure. The snow is piling up now might not need them soon, I was at my neighbors and there 100x60' huge garage is flooded because of the frozen ground and water. Its a mess inside with carpet, furniture they had stored all wet.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: zackdog on March 13, 2019, 06:33:01 PM
Well, so much for the Snow Stake.

Mark

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on March 13, 2019, 07:02:50 PM
The roads in Nebraska are currently under siege.  This map (https://hb.511.nebraska.gov//#roadReports?timeFrame=TODAY&layers=allReports%2CroadReports%2CwinterDriving%2Ccameras%2CotherStates) tells the tale.

They've pulled all of the plows off the road in Nebraska's panhandle (scroll and zoom to see) (https://plows.nebraska.gov/index.html)!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Jasiu on March 13, 2019, 07:33:23 PM
I don't think I've ever seen doppler wind returns like this in the absence of a tropical system before. Wow.

The light blue and orange depict 60-70mph sustained.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: cospringswx on March 13, 2019, 09:40:58 PM
National guard is activated here.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on March 13, 2019, 11:37:49 PM
Unprecedented conditions across Nebraska this evening.

I've never seen so many and varied Alerts and Warnings in Lincoln and the contiguous seven counties:
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/Alerts-Warnings-2019-03-13-1.png)

The roads are impassible throughout the state due to flooding in eastern Nebraska and the blizzard in western Nebraska:
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/NebraskaRoadsClosed-2019-03-13.png)
Interstate 80 is closed.

There are only 5 snowplows working right now, none the panhandle which is hardest hit by the blizzard:
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/NebraskaPlows-2019-03-13-10-30pmcdt.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 14, 2019, 12:03:18 AM
Ended up with 1.58" in 8" gauge so far. The Cocorahs gauge really came up short with the wind and horizontal nature of the blizzard. I'll even say it was near worthless missing 30% of the snowfall catch. Thank goodness I have the 8" SGR.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on March 14, 2019, 05:05:23 AM
As shown, winds gusted up to 69 mph in the northwest quarter of Oklahoma during Wednesday afternoon.  Fish were said to be blown out of the water and on to shore at Lake Hefner in Oklahoma City.  Here, winds gusted up to 42 mph for the highest gust this year.  Barometer got down to 29.22. 
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/maxgusts.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 14, 2019, 06:17:18 AM
Some of the conditions in Valentine Ne. after estimated 5.5" snow. This is under a covered 12x20 patio polywood furniture. See the large  22x24" planter pot buried. Drifts are 2 feet + deep all over with 50+ mph wind this morning.  My east side station had a gust to 64mph.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on March 14, 2019, 08:08:04 AM
This was the main page of the Omaha/Valley WFO's Weather Story this morning:
(https://www.gwwilkins.org/temp-images/RiverFlooding-2019-03-14.png)

You can usually get a more in-depth look here (https://www.gwwilkins.org/wxriverpage.php).
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: chief-david on March 14, 2019, 10:50:25 PM
Fargo ND

(https://www.inforum.com/987780-ualqpv-031519.N.FF.weather.06.jpg/alternates/BASE_LANDSCAPE/031519.N.FF.weather.06.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 15, 2019, 11:17:58 AM
Someone asked about the 8" diameter rain gauge, I have the standard but for the price difference, I would go with the forestry version. It also has Orifice: 8" (200 mm) just not as deep.

Novalynx carries it if interested. Makes a big difference in windy conditions.

https://novalynx.com/store/pc/260-2520-Forestry-Rain-Gauge-p237.htm
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on March 15, 2019, 10:27:09 PM
To further complicate things in Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa the Omaha/Valley NE OAX weather station was evacuated today due to nearby flooding.  I've not seen any further reports, but the NOAA radio feeds operated by them (https://www.gwwilkins.org/wxradio.php) and the KOAX radar (https://www.gwwilkins.org/wxusradars-hanis3.php) are currently inoperative.  A local evening weatherman was unable to report our local extreme temperatures for the day because the OAX data for Lincoln wasn't available.

It may be several days before the Omaha/Valley NE OAX WFO returns to normal operation.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 16, 2019, 12:10:44 AM
Mostly the national news has had sparse coverage of the flooding in Nebraska. The Journal Star had some good coverage.

Hate to see all that damage to towns, homes, agriculture, roads.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 16, 2019, 04:02:44 AM
The ground is still frozen in parts of Nebraska, down to 35" locally. So the flooding experienced may not be over especially if another rain comes over the next week. Still, areas with unmelted snow like around here. I have some deep drifted areas still.
Temps were in upper 30's yesterday and expected again today. Slow melting is what we need but the ground needs to thaw, with snow cover hard to do. 


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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: Bunty on March 18, 2019, 05:35:40 PM
While it has been an unusually cold winter in Oklahoma City, it hasn't been cold enough to make the top ten.  I think no. 1, 1978, was when there was a big snow storm on New Year's Day and that began a bunch of snow storms that would arrive before the snow from the previous one could fully finish melting off.  Not much cooperation from sun, either. So there was always at least a little bit of snow on the ground until early March.  Haven't seen another winter like it since.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/cold2019.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: gwwilk on March 19, 2019, 04:12:02 PM
The Omaha/Valley NE WFO is back up and running as of this afternoon.  Their NOAA Radio feeds are working as is the KOAX radar!

It apparently didn't take them as long to recover as they had feared.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: DRoberts on March 20, 2019, 08:35:28 AM
Wonder how much equipment/hardware they lost.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on March 20, 2019, 11:51:45 AM
I was looking at Valentines coldest first 3 months of 128 years records. #1-1978, #2-1979, #3-1936.  The coldest month ever was Feb. 1936 with mean temperature of 1.8°F. Compare to this February at the airport looks rather balmy 14°.   This March may go down in top 10 coldest currently 22° on the 19th, but still too early.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: CW2274 on April 12, 2019, 06:09:06 AM
The breadth of this trough is amazing, mid April to boot. Winter lives on.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: ValentineWeather on April 12, 2019, 07:57:32 AM
Really digging deep for this time of year.  Results 7.4" snow yesterday, at least we didn't get the 18" models were suggesting.
What's left this morning with the warm ground should be gone in a couple of days.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on April 16, 2019, 05:54:30 AM
Goodbye winter, hello spring.  I made my last wood fire this morning (it was 28 degrees outside) and am looking forward today to our first 60 degree day here since Oct. 18.  So are a lot of other people.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: WeatherHost on April 16, 2019, 06:20:43 AM
^^^   That's Despicable!!!!

Haven't had more than a week or two at a time without a 60 since then.  Lots of 70s and a couple of 80s recently.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
Post by: BKS97 on April 16, 2019, 07:00:08 AM
^^^   That's Despicable!!!!

Haven't had more than a week or two at a time without a 60 since then.  Lots of 70s and a couple of 80s recently.

Actually, it’s seasonal, what one would expect in the Upper Midwest and in other northern states.  April might end up being a bit cooler on average this year, but nothing dramatic.  It’s been a month of changing weather — cool and milder temps, snow and rain, windy days — pretty much what you would expect as winter fades and spring takes over.