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Weather Related Organizations => NOAA National Weather Service => Topic started by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 05:42:43 PM

Title: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 05:42:43 PM
I noticed this year the KVTN ASOS back in March spiked up couple degrees. I've tested against Davis SHT31 half dozen or more times with a portable at airport and even using my NIST certified at night and there seems to be a +1.6 bias. I don't do any comparisons unless we have at least 10-15 mph sustained wind making sure air is mixed and no hot or cold pockets.
 
 
Prior to this year differential was never over .5 (1/2F) from airport with MADIS confirming, but I've seen as much as 2 this year since March. The reason I know I watched it like a hawk.

Some may remember on this forum Ive even bragged how close to airport 1 tenth (.1) or even 0 differential my instruments were until this summer the airport was noticeably warmer.

I started looking around at the North Platte ASOS and it also appears to be running above other Davis stations CWOP inside town.

I sent a letter to the ASOS link on Gladstone page explaining my findings but never received any correspondence back.
 
I guess the more serious question is if I'm right and I don't think my instruments are wrong why has this happened? What is NOAA & NWS up too?

I'll post todays snapshot of 2 different ASOS stations NP and Valentine with wind well mixed along with the event where the KVTN station issue started according to MADIS.




 



Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 06:08:30 PM
After I sent the email explaining my concerns about the ASOS and evidence gathered according to MADIS the MADIS DATA went down on Gladstone and is still down. I wanted to pull more data looking at the NP ASOS also and see if it spiked up around same time period as KVTN.
Maybe just a coincidence and all my thermometers are wrong.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 29, 2017, 06:18:15 PM
What is NOAA & NWS up too?
:twisted:
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 06:22:56 PM
What is NOAA & NWS up too?
:twisted:

I do wonder after some of the events lately being uncovered....But I'm actually looking for a plausible reason this has happened. Maybe I'll send another email.
2 degrees may not seem like much but in the big scope of things it is. 
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 29, 2017, 06:24:56 PM
Actually my guess is older sensors that still fall within spec. You, me, and others here undoubtedly pay daily attention to our obs, whereas ASOS's are only checked within a period no more than 6 months unless an obvious problem exists.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 06:33:34 PM
Actually my guess is older sensors that still fall within spec. You, me, and others here undoubtedly pay daily attention to our obs, whereas ASOS's are only checked within a period no more than 6 months unless an obvious problem exists.

i see, well us damn weather nerds are just trouble.... :grin:
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 29, 2017, 06:40:21 PM
Actually my guess is older sensors that still fall within spec. You, me, and others here undoubtedly pay daily attention to our obs, whereas ASOS's are only checked within a period no more than 6 months unless an obvious problem exists.

i see, well us damn weather nerds are just trouble.... :grin:
:-"
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: DoctorKnow on December 29, 2017, 07:34:44 PM
Some of the NOAA sites around me are at times moving up too a degree or two. The RAWS stations are also high by 3 or so F, in areas I would expect them to be cooler, in forests.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 07:51:35 PM
Some of the NOAA sites around me are at times moving up too a degree or two. The RAWS stations are also high by 3 or so F, in areas I would expect them to be cooler, in forests.

Thanks for input. I haven't noticed closest airport AWOS, not ASOS running high but good to know.

The Mesonet stations run almost identical to the Davis stations while ASOS is +2. Current shot of Mesonet around area and these are professional stations.  https://mesonet.unl.edu/stations/

Airport is currently 5 where X is

Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 29, 2017, 09:04:03 PM
I think this is pretty much ado about nothing. Don't forget ASOS's (at least "official" ones) use an averaging algorithm. Since benign conditions occur here as a norm, I watch me get warmer than the ASOS's around me in the morning hours (dew follows, whichever direction), mid day neck and neck, then I cool faster as the sun fades. I see this everyday. Not only, I've become more aware of how micro-climates affect readings, especially the dew (a simple, brief wind shift for instance), as I found water vapor in the air is more "transportable" than the temp, at least in my experience here.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 29, 2017, 09:20:45 PM
Very true micro climates are real, maybe not with 15 mph wind though.
Remember I personally visited ASOS multiple times with aspirated SHT31. It's reading high vs my instruments I can assure anyone reading thread. Now whether its because of the 5 min averaging algorithm or just calibration issue is the question. If ASOS averages 50 but the Davis never goes above 48 there is an issue somewhere.

Reason I can easily check ASOS, its not fenced and only 1 mile away. Takes less than 10 minutes from house.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: Mattk on December 29, 2017, 09:40:11 PM
Lots of "official" averaging is not by the requirements/standards anyway as the "intent" is to push things up an if one fiddles the top up as well as the bottom end then it's easy to make things go up even further. And oh yeah it has a lot to do about certain things :) 
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 29, 2017, 10:01:22 PM
Very true micro climates are real, maybe not with 15 mph wind though.
Remember I personally visited ASOS multiple times with aspirated SHT31. It's reading high vs my instruments I can assure anyone reading thread. Now whether its because of the 5 min averaging algorithm or just calibration issue is the question. If ASOS averages 50 but the Davis never goes above 48 there is an issue somewhere.

Reason I can easily check ASOS, its not fenced and only 1 mile away. Takes less than 10 minutes from house.
Then I refer back to reply 4. ;)
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ocala on December 30, 2017, 07:27:04 AM
Maybe the sensor is just old?
Anyways I found this on the ASOS Page.
How accurate is ASOS?
The ASOS sensors contain state-of-the-art technology and
the associated software provides data quality checks to
guarantee accuracy. Each sensor has different accuracy
ratings. For the primary sensors used for climate,
temperature can measure from -80F to +130F with an
accuracy of less than 2F. The rain gauge is accurate to
0.01 inches
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 09:09:29 AM
Yuk  2F its back within 2 range now.
These are the Mesonet stations 2 SHT31's and airport.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: waiukuweather on December 30, 2017, 01:47:23 PM
average the whole month out and the whole USA, its been warmer than normal, despite the recent cold snap in the NE and now central north
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 30, 2017, 01:52:20 PM
Yuk  2F
Yeah, nothing to right home about. Being usable to -80F probably doesn't help.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: waiukuweather on December 30, 2017, 01:59:38 PM
what seems to be happening, re the cold snaps, is that cold air is moving away from the arctic a lot more than used to be, in deep diving jet streams that get stuck in one place
while the arctic itself is still much warmer than normal (currently sea ice extent is at record lows..and the rate of generation is very slow)
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 30, 2017, 02:10:56 PM
82F yesterday, bout the same today, the warmest year on record here is going out in record shattering style, buy a HUGE margin.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 02:32:03 PM
82F yesterday, bout the same today, the warmest year on record here is going out in record shattering style, buy a HUGE margin.

If you go here: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?az8820 and click on highlighted average you can look at every month/year going back to the beginning.
Love this site..

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 30, 2017, 02:41:32 PM
Thanks for the link. This is what I've been using. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/monthly/2017.php
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 02:57:45 PM
Thanks for the link. This is what I've been using. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/monthly/2017.php

I can tell you're more trustworthy than me.  :-)

I like to look at the numbers myself after finding several times fabrications and manipulated data to fit the narrative.

I trust myself provided the data itself is not corrupt. 
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 03:02:04 PM
I've called the Midwestern Regional Climate Center out several times after publishing BS maps of above normal temperatures which were out right lies.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 03:21:59 PM
What the Midwestern Regional Climate Center was doing, they would publish these pretty all red maps showing above normal temperatures for the month across the whole region.
So I would go and pull the raw data because I knew it wasn't true from stations in my area of region, some came in normal or even under and send it to them asking how they can publish such BS.
I've yet to receive an answer from the jerks.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: waiukuweather on December 30, 2017, 04:10:11 PM
you should not be calling people jerks

what is with people on this forum?
Title: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 04:20:58 PM
you should not be calling people jerks

what is with people on this forum?

They are lying to the public on my tax dollar pushing a narrative I disagree with. Jerks is the nicest term I could come up with.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ocala on December 30, 2017, 04:40:44 PM
you should not be calling people jerks

what is with people on this forum?

They are lying to the public on my tax dollar pushing a narrative I disagree with. Jerks is the nicest term I could come up with.
Question.
When you asked them about their findings did you ask in a civil manner or go in with guns a blazing?
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: Mattk on December 30, 2017, 04:49:32 PM
Yes it appears to be a bit of a con job in many countries, fiddling the numbers to achieve the output "they" require. It's not so much the sensors (as such) but the way methods are being applied. Anyway they are going to have some issues fiddling this Artic cold snap :)   
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 30, 2017, 04:52:48 PM
Thanks for the link. This is what I've been using. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/monthly/2017.php

I can tell you're more trustworthy than me.  :-)

I like to look at the numbers myself after finding several times fabrications and manipulated data to fit the narrative.

I trust myself provided the data itself is not corrupt.
I can't use my own data as I only have from this Feb. til now since my hard drive blew up, and like a dumbass I didn't have it backed up. That being said, all I can say is that my obs compare very favorably to TUS, there is no doubt it's hotter now than ever...here.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ocala on December 30, 2017, 04:58:23 PM
Something isn't right here. This from the MRCC certification page.

The Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) serves as a regional data archiving facility in cooperation with the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and other federal, state and local authorities. As such, the MRCC can certify copies of climate records archived at the MRCC. As an archiving facility, the only fact the MRCC can attest to is that exact duplicates of climatic records on file at this center have been provided to those that requested such data.* This is accomplished by attaching a cover letter to the climate data signed by a climatologist stating the authenticity of the data provided.

Here's what the asterisk at the end of that sentence states.
 *MRCC cannot certify the accuracy or completeness of the data.

If that is the case how can they publish a climate map if they aren't a 100% the data is correct?
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 05:01:09 PM
Something isn't right here. This from the MRCC certification page.



Here's what the asterisk at the end of that sentence states.
 *MRCC cannot certify the accuracy or completeness of the data.

If that is the case how can they publish a climate map if they aren't a 100% the data is correct?

Humm... maybe why they never reply.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ocala on December 30, 2017, 05:03:12 PM
Also, your tax dollars aren't being used. I think. :???:

The MRCC certification is similar to the certification provided by NCEI.  The MRCC is not a federal agency under the U.S. Department of Commerce and therefore cannot certify documents using the U.S. Department of Commerce seal as provided by NCEI. Typically, the MRCC certification is adequate to submit climate data records as evidence. However, customers are urged to order certified records directly from NCEI if local law requires it.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 05:12:58 PM
Thanks for the link. This is what I've been using. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/monthly/2017.php

I can tell you're more trustworthy than me.  :-)

I like to look at the numbers myself after finding several times fabrications and manipulated data to fit the narrative.

I trust myself provided the data itself is not corrupt.
I can't use my own data as I only have from this Feb. til now since my hard drive blew up, and like a dumbass I didn't have it backed up. That being said, all I can say is that my obs compare very favorably to TUS, there is no doubt it's hotter now than ever...here.

Ever is a long time. I know what you mean since records started.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 30, 2017, 05:22:23 PM
Yes it appears to be a bit of a con job in many countries, fiddling the numbers to achieve the output "they" require. It's not so much the sensors (as such) but the way methods are being applied. Anyway they are going to have some issues fiddling this Artic cold snap :)

No kidding, I was watching Sioux Falls weather on local channel and they were saying longest period of subzero in 30 years or so going back to 1994... I think.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 30, 2017, 05:29:17 PM
Thanks for the link. This is what I've been using. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/monthly/2017.php

I can tell you're more trustworthy than me.  :-)

I like to look at the numbers myself after finding several times fabrications and manipulated data to fit the narrative.

I trust myself provided the data itself is not corrupt.
I can't use my own data as I only have from this Feb. til now since my hard drive blew up, and like a dumbass I didn't have it backed up. That being said, all I can say is that my obs compare very favorably to TUS, there is no doubt it's hotter now than ever...here.

Ever is a long time. I know what you mean since records started.
Back to the 1880's. I've lived here over 29 years now, granted only 10 with the VP2 but that's certainly confirmation for me how hot it has become...here. ;)
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: Mattk on December 30, 2017, 05:40:52 PM
10 years is really not that long compared to the overall climate patterns over much longer. One has to denounce the weather reporters when they come out with dumb things like " yes folks it has been the hottest day on record since 1973 (or whatever)", whaat you mean it was hotter before then duh
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: CW2274 on December 30, 2017, 05:48:53 PM
10 years is really not that long compared to the overall climate patterns over much longer.
Yeah, I get that. Only thing, the other 19 years without a PWS, when I went to work I had TUS and DMA ASOS's to stare at for 8 hours.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 14, 2018, 06:32:46 AM
My Blog on this:
Yearly summary 2017 Mean temperature 49.0 (+1.1) above normal. High (108), Low (-20). Peak wind gust (49 mph), Precipitation 20.37 (+.35) This was the coolest year in last 3, or since beginning of this stations data.

Contrarily airport mean temperature was (50.5) 5th warmest ever. Airport was within a few tenths every year prior until now (+1.5) above this station and surrounding stations continuing into 2018. Changeover +1.7 was recorded and observed by MADIS in March which was same time I noticed the sudden rise. MADIS is meteorological observational database and data delivery system which tracks all data.

The irony of it all, its now confirmed right here in Nebraska "Man Made Warming" is real by just turning the thermometers up and bingo you have it. To my surprise while researching it was pointed out by another weather enthusiast, these Airport ASOS stations everyone thought so accurate including myself actually have loose tolerances on thermometer (+/- 2F) so weather records can get smashed by just having poorly calibrated instrument.
Title: Re: Are they moving the ASOS temperature up?
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 14, 2018, 09:32:11 AM
Here are the mean temperatures from prior years and station differences.

2016  50.2F      Airport ASOS     50.3F
2015  49.2F      Airport ASOS     49.5F

At now last year 2017

2017   49.0F (coolest of 3 years)   Airport ASOS   50.5F ( 5th Warmest on record) Goes back into 1800's