I know I'm probably in the minority on this but in my opinion, long range forecast are completely meaninless, regardless of who's making them. I said it to my wife back in June that his year's forecast was an overreaction to last year's season and that I'd be willing to bet money that we'd be seeing a "revision" of the forecast.
It's a pretty easy call to make at this point that we're going to see an average season this year. I don't need any supercomputers or experts to tell me that.
My question, and I think I've asked it here before, is what "forecast" do they use when they figure out how accurate their forecasts are?
