Author Topic: Fall/Winter 2022  (Read 11961 times)

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #25 on: December 01, 2022, 06:48:24 PM »
Maybe I'll actually get some meaningful rain this weekend! There's an AR (atmospheric river) event headed for the SW, and PWAT values are progged to push in the 99th percentile. Considering that the monsoon was a disaster in my little section of town, and I've only had 5.65" this year total (that's not even monsoon normal, forget the whole year), we could surely use some. Fingers crossed...

Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2022, 02:45:13 AM »

Also the 2nd home page using modified AltDashboard 6.95 at http://stillwaterweather.com/2ndhome.php

Offline gwwilk

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2022, 10:10:15 AM »
It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'.  There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #28 on: December 02, 2022, 10:37:06 AM »
It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'.  There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.

Good point I'm guilty of using the term NORMAL too in my weather diary.
Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #29 on: December 02, 2022, 06:27:12 PM »
It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'.  There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
"Misleading BS?" Ya think your choice of words might be a little caustic? It's a common mistake I and others make. Sorry. I'll try to do better next time, even though you've made this comment before. Obviously, it falls on my deaf ears..

Offline gwwilk

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #30 on: December 02, 2022, 06:47:47 PM »
It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'.  There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
"Misleading BS?" Ya think your choice of words might be a little caustic? It's a common mistake I and others make. Sorry. I'll try to do better next time, even though you've made this comment before. Obviously, it falls on my deaf ears..
This is obviously a hot-button issue for me, the reason being that the logical converse of 'normal' is 'abnormal' which implies that any deviation from the statistical average is abnormal.  Total BS, (with my apologies for offending you once again!)  This is akin to calling any weather prediction one or more weeks hence 'Climate Prediction'.  That's off the rails as well, but I'll admit that their there needs to be a better term describing these predictions than what's currently available in our language.  Maybe there's a term in another language that would better suffice.  English has always been great at adopting such words.  Anyone?  A name for weather predictions one week to one year ahead?  It ain't 'climate', that's for sure.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2022, 07:36:26 PM by gwwilk »
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Offline Vasco

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #31 on: December 02, 2022, 07:32:47 PM »
Anyone?  A name for weather predictions one week to one year ahead?  It ain't 'climate', that's for sure.

Agree with your basic premiss, but "long-term weather forecast" does it for me - with all that implies.
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Offline gwwilk

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #32 on: December 02, 2022, 07:41:32 PM »
Anyone?  A name for weather predictions one week to one year ahead?  It ain't 'climate', that's for sure.

Agree with your basic premiss, but "long-term weather forecast" does it for me - with all that implies.

Thanks for assenting and assisting.  Our NWS has a penchant for single-word descriptors, so as accurate as 'long-term weather forecast' may be, there's little hope of them adopting it.    :sad:
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2022, 08:45:16 AM »
 73 at 2:30 p.m. Friday and +2 at 6 a.m. Saturday. Quite a temperature range. Throw in some blowing dust and wind gusts of 40 mph and it was a find Kansas day.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2022, 06:53:03 PM »
One of those 49° swing days from negative -5° to 44°.
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Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #35 on: December 03, 2022, 07:39:56 PM »
One of those 49° swing days from negative -5° to 44°.
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Just a 40 degree range here in northern KS. Was rather surprised to see +2 this morning at 6:30 here. We haven't seen a negative temperature yet this season.

Stay warm!

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #36 on: December 03, 2022, 07:59:37 PM »
This is looking like a cold winter for us with multiple arctic air intrusions since mid-November already. We've had 3 negatives already -9° the lowest. I had a conversation with our area forecast office they are beginning to think the same. Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average. The November mean was  -6°.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2022, 09:53:00 PM by ValentineWeather »
Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #37 on: December 03, 2022, 08:21:07 PM »
Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!

Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL.  :roll:  For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe.  :-({|=

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #38 on: December 03, 2022, 09:43:33 PM »
Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!

Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL.  :roll:  For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe.  :-({|=

Long waves, short wave troughs...all mean the same to us here: DRY. Temperatures seem to be on more of an up and down pattern than usual, though I don't have the data to back that up. Nearest official records are 60 miles away.

Offline ocala

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #39 on: December 04, 2022, 07:19:06 AM »
Still no sign of cold weather down here yet. Last November it came early as we were 3.5 degrees cooler then average. This November year we were 3 degrees above average. Even the long range GFS not showing any real cold air.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #40 on: December 04, 2022, 07:21:48 AM »
Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!

Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL.  :roll:  For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe.  :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that. 
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #41 on: December 04, 2022, 04:20:15 PM »
Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!

Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL.  :roll:  For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe.  :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
I was hoping for at least an inch, but sit on 0.82", better than a sharp stick in the eye, and my best single event of the year. Still waaaaay behind AVERAGE... ;)

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #42 on: December 04, 2022, 06:43:57 PM »
Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!

Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL.  :roll:  For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe.  :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
I was hoping for at least an inch, but sit on 0.82", better than a sharp stick in the eye, and my best single event of the year. Still waaaaay behind AVERAGE... ;)

Nice. Now I need to go out back and sacrifice a rodent so we might get some precipitation too.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #43 on: December 04, 2022, 07:48:37 PM »
Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!

Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL.  :roll:  For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe.  :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
I was hoping for at least an inch, but sit on 0.82", better than a sharp stick in the eye, and my best single event of the year. Still waaaaay behind AVERAGE... ;)

Nice. Now I need to go out back and sacrifice a rodent so we might get some precipitation too.
:???:

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #44 on: December 09, 2022, 06:19:07 AM »
The website snow stake cam this morning, 6.5", and what potentially could be a historical storm next week with another 24". Still, a little early but forecasters have confidence. This winter is turning into a doozy.
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« Last Edit: December 09, 2022, 08:46:22 AM by ValentineWeather »
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #45 on: December 09, 2022, 08:06:27 AM »
We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS.  And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #46 on: December 09, 2022, 08:40:08 AM »
We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS.  And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.

We've been very dry too. Very unusual for this much moisture in December. Looks like your all rain with maybe a 1/3" of moisture.
Randy


Offline 92merc

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #48 on: December 09, 2022, 12:27:43 PM »
Where are you pulling those snowfall graphics from?  I don't recall seeing that version before.

Bismarck, ND is probably going to get hit hard it's sounding like.  So I'd like to see that page.
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter 2022
« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2022, 06:16:21 PM »
Randy

 

anything