Check out
https://eo.ucar.edu/kids/dangerwx/tstorm4.htm for a basic description of how thunderstorms form.
The action of warm air rising and cold air sinking (convection) plays a key role in the formation of severe thunderstorms. If the warm surface air is forced to rise, it will continue to rise, because it is less dense than the surrounding air. In addition, it will transfer heat from the land surface to upper levels of the atmosphere through the process of convection.
Two of the most important ingredients for thunderstorm formation are instability (unstable air) and moisture.
Out here along the coast, our storms generally don't have enough instability to form thunderheads. We might have one thunderstorm a year. East of here in the summer, clouds pushing up against the Sierra will form orographic thunderstorms.
Having said all that, from our current forecast discussion:
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS AT OUR DOORSTEP,
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO EXTREME NW SLO COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
MARCH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
EAST OF LA COUNTY BY AROUND MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ONE WILL SEEM SCANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN LATELY BUT
IT WILL KEEP NUDGING OUR SEASON NUMBERS MORE IN THE BLACK AND GIVE
US A LITTLE CUSHION FOR OUR INEVITABLE WINTER RAIN HIATUS, WHICH
ACTUALLY MAY BE STARTING UP LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST LOOKS MORE OR
LESS ON TRACK BUT WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO >80 ALL AREAS TUE
NIGHT. NOT REALLY ENAMORED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT,
BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS COLDER AND
HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, UNFORTUNATELY TIMING IS
BAD AS THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED AND
THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY STABILIZES WED AFTERNOON.
So, maybe we'll get some lightning out of these 2 storms, but probably not...
