Social Media Already Buzzing Over Tornadoes, Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle Tells What You Need to Know.
https://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/05/14/social-media-already-buzzing-over-tornadoes-what-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR3r0xhMh0GUdmpQpjjYMRcgRyR2jUtiP9jbCekYvZBCwFcc3hrWzfvHqg4
This trough is really starting to get it's act together and I'm thinking may take on a negative tilt, it's neutral as is already. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'enhanced' level gets bumped for Friday.
This year could become a real doozy for severe outbreaks the way the pattern has setup so late into spring.
In case you haven't read it, from SPC for tomorrow. The first sentence gets your attention.
...Central Plains region...
Potential exists for a significant severe event across a portion of
NE, and a moderate risk will be considered in day 1 updates.
However, primary uncertainty this forecast will be how far south the
cold front advances and where it will be during peak heating, which
will be critical in determining corridor of greatest severe threat.
The front should stall somewhere across central or south central NE
before possibly retreating slowly north as a warm front. Dewpoints
generally in the low 60s F should reside in the warm sector beneath
very steep (7.5-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates). This setup will
favor strong instability with MLCAPE from 2500-3000 J/kg as the
boundary layer warms. However, given warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer, the warm sector will likely remained capped
through at least the first half of the day. Elevated storms will
probably be ongoing north of the front early with some threat for
hail. Initial surface-based storm development may occur by mid-late
afternoon near triple point from northeast CO into southwest NE at
intersection of surface low/front and dryline where convergence and
deep mixing, as well as arrival of deeper forcing for ascent within
upper jet exit region should weaken the cap. These storms should
intensify as they develop northeast through the very unstable warm
sector along and just south of the front where 40-50 kt effective
bulk shear will favor supercells with very large hail. Tornado
threat should be maximized from late afternoon through early evening
as the low-level jet strengthens, contributing to increasing
hodographs size with 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. More
isolated supercells may develop southward through western KS.
Eye to the sky, sir.