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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: Notsorusty on September 22, 2022, 10:10:32 AM
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It's time, already(?)
Yesterday, last full day of summer, temps in mid 80s. This morning woke up to low 50s.
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Coldest morning in a while—it's fallen to 50.8°F here at my PWS this morning. Keep in mind I'm right at a river, so temps aren't reflective of places further inland (e.g. less radiational cooling, other places in ENC have fallen well into the 40s). Quite the change with the end of summery temps
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The farmers have been busy, image on left is from Aug 31st, the one on the right is from today (Oct 8th)
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The fall colors should also start showing if we can get some clear, cloudless days in the northeast.
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Premature postage. Today's image for the Northeast showing the color change:
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My nephew in Vermont sent me some incredible fall drone pics from today.
That's the one thing I miss about living up north.
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This is an interesting time being so close to the big water. From now until the lake freezes, I will be about 5-9 degrees warmer than just a few miles inland, the waters hold a lot of heat. Expect to have peak color within the week. I hike with the dogs at a rec area south of me, they call it a mountain (not) but the elevation does facilitate faster color changes. We hike in the morning when the sun is just coming up, really pretty and peaceful. Have to say Fall is my favorite time of year, next is winter until about middle of January, the it – well it is cold. Will try to get some Fall pics and post.
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(https://stillwaterweather.com/images/droughtmajor.jpg)
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We haven't seen any of this yet but it has been very windy and cold all day in the Chicago area.
Comment from the local NWS in Chicago (Romeoville office):
Some of these have produced brief
"snow globe" behavior with ~1 SM visibility underneath them,
including even in the far western forecast area (near Rock Falls
and Rochelle).
MTF
Much too early for this kind of stuff!
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Our summer is essentially over.
First CF of the season. Low 40's and mid 70's.
Sad to see summer go. Now it's Chamber of Commerce weather for 6 months.
Boring. :sad:
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Hoping here for the first good rain of autumn to put a dent in the drought. Late Sunday night into Tuesday has chances of it bringing over an inch of rain. It's needed to discourage the brush fires. An example of what they leave behind is pictured near Stillwater. Maybe it explains why I had a power outage Friday morning for a about an hour.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/brushfirenearstillwater.jpg)
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This is a status report from our local commuter rail service:
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Hazards of commuting in the fall I guess.
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This is a status report from our local commuter rail service:
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Hazards of commuting in the fall I guess.
A 20 ton train bested by a 1 gram leaf.
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First real snowstorm of the season. From about 1500 3 Nov to 0400 4 November. Total about 7” and 0.72” moisture.
https://youtu.be/K9YF-xDRm-o (https://youtu.be/K9YF-xDRm-o)
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Very nice cold core low. Should be an interesting week working its way down the coast.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northernhemiwest-09-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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The Buoy that had been installed off the coast of downtown Chicago has been removed yesterday. It posted 30 second videos every daytime hour during this past summer. I have enjoyed seeing the different conditions on the lake over the summer, including seeing fireworks and some really large waves. I wasn't sure how long they were going to keep it out there but we have been having such mild weather they must have decided to wait. Much colder weather is moving in tonite.
https://iiseagrant.org/45198/
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today proves November is the cloudiest month.
Had my "christmas lights" on all day.
For my football teams
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Just some rambling thoughts on diurnal temperature ranges.
These 50 degree plus diurnal temperature ranges here sure raise hell with CWOP. At my location, which is rural, prairie, in a shallow bowl, both spring and fall morning temperatures can be 50+ degrees lower than afternoon temperatures. I am not saying this is an every day occurrence, but this fall's weather pattern has been conducive to it. This morning, for example, low was 10 and it is currently (2:25 p.m.) 62. Yesterday was similar. I have double checked my VP2 accuracy using a mercury thermometer.
Wondered who else has experienced this kind of "extreme" 24 hr range in a normal day? You get "flagged" by either CWOP or MesoWest?
I know the relative scarcity of reporting stations in this area increases the odds that my station will be flagged for suspicious data. Not much I can do about that.
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We occasionally get the 50-degree swing days but the more common is 40°-42° here in northern Nebraska. It's so different from the Arizona high (4,300') desert location I moved from where 20° to 25° was the common value. You would think the Arizona dry air would have bigger swings but nope nothing like the plains. Part of it is the frequency of air mass changes across the plains vs Arizona where it's much more stable. Western Nebraska with lower dew point temps has larger swings than eastern so it varies even on the plains.
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Top swings for me would be about 30 to 35 degrees.
Flanked by 2 oceans on either side they moderate the air. But every now and then when the polar jet swings far south we'll join in the fun.
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Top swings for me would be about 30 to 35 degrees.
Flanked by 2 oceans on either side they moderate the air. But every now and then when the polar jet swings far south we'll join in the fun.
That's when you drop down to that bone dry 50%, eh..... :-P
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Top swings for me would be about 30 to 35 degrees.
Flanked by 2 oceans on either side they moderate the air. But every now and then when the polar jet swings far south we'll join in the fun.
That's when you drop down to that bone dry 50%, eh..... :-P
It ain't the humidity it's the DP.
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Top swings for me would be about 30 to 35 degrees.
Flanked by 2 oceans on either side they moderate the air. But every now and then when the polar jet swings far south we'll join in the fun.
That's when you drop down to that bone dry 50%, eh..... :-P
It ain't the humidity it's the DP.
Back in my face! Touché!
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Heads up Dixie Alley....
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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7+ inches of snow in the MPLS area
Tornadoes in the southern states
Yup, fall in the us
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Here in Valentine Nebraska the airport ASOS dropped down to -9° and had a windchill of -20° at one point.
Here at my location only -3°. My place is located about 2 miles from the airport. I have another station setup near the airport, one of those Tempest Weather Flow units, it recorded -7° so the south side gets very cold. We did get a little snow yesterday 3" this is my front yard this morning. I shoveled that sidewalk twice yesterday because it kept filling in. Oh yeah and the forecast tomorrow is 52°, talk about swings in temperatures.
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Maybe I'll actually get some meaningful rain this weekend! There's an AR (atmospheric river) event headed for the SW, and PWAT values are progged to push in the 99th percentile. Considering that the monsoon was a disaster in my little section of town, and I've only had 5.65" this year total (that's not even monsoon normal, forget the whole year), we could surely use some. Fingers crossed...
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(https://stillwaterweather.com/images/channel4wx.jpg)
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It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'. There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
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It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'. There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
Good point I'm guilty of using the term NORMAL too in my weather diary.
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It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'. There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
"Misleading BS?" Ya think your choice of words might be a little caustic? It's a common mistake I and others make. Sorry. I'll try to do better next time, even though you've made this comment before. Obviously, it falls on my deaf ears..
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It's misleading BS to equate a statistical average to 'normal'. There's no such thing as 'normal', only average, median or mode.
"Misleading BS?" Ya think your choice of words might be a little caustic? It's a common mistake I and others make. Sorry. I'll try to do better next time, even though you've made this comment before. Obviously, it falls on my deaf ears..
This is obviously a hot-button issue for me, the reason being that the logical converse of 'normal' is 'abnormal' which implies that any deviation from the statistical average is abnormal. Total BS, (with my apologies for offending you once again!) This is akin to calling any weather prediction one or more weeks hence 'Climate Prediction'. That's off the rails as well, but I'll admit that their there needs to be a better term describing these predictions than what's currently available in our language. Maybe there's a term in another language that would better suffice. English has always been great at adopting such words. Anyone? A name for weather predictions one week to one year ahead? It ain't 'climate', that's for sure.
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Anyone? A name for weather predictions one week to one year ahead? It ain't 'climate', that's for sure.
Agree with your basic premiss, but "long-term weather forecast" does it for me - with all that implies.
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Anyone? A name for weather predictions one week to one year ahead? It ain't 'climate', that's for sure.
Agree with your basic premiss, but "long-term weather forecast" does it for me - with all that implies.
Thanks for assenting and assisting. Our NWS has a penchant for single-word descriptors, so as accurate as 'long-term weather forecast' may be, there's little hope of them adopting it. :sad:
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73 at 2:30 p.m. Friday and +2 at 6 a.m. Saturday. Quite a temperature range. Throw in some blowing dust and wind gusts of 40 mph and it was a find Kansas day.
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One of those 49° swing days from negative -5° to 44°.
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One of those 49° swing days from negative -5° to 44°.
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Just a 40 degree range here in northern KS. Was rather surprised to see +2 this morning at 6:30 here. We haven't seen a negative temperature yet this season.
Stay warm!
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This is looking like a cold winter for us with multiple arctic air intrusions since mid-November already. We've had 3 negatives already -9° the lowest. I had a conversation with our area forecast office they are beginning to think the same. Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below
normal I mean average. The November mean was -6°.
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Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!
Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL. :roll: For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe. :-({|=
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Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!
Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL. :roll: For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe. :-({|=
Long waves, short wave troughs...all mean the same to us here: DRY. Temperatures seem to be on more of an up and down pattern than usual, though I don't have the data to back that up. Nearest official records are 60 miles away.
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Still no sign of cold weather down here yet. Last November it came early as we were 3.5 degrees cooler then average. This November year we were 3 degrees above average. Even the long range GFS not showing any real cold air.
Chamber of Commerce weather continues.
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Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!
Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL. :roll: For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe. :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
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Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!
Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL. :roll: For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe. :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
I was hoping for at least an inch, but sit on 0.82", better than a sharp stick in the eye, and my best single event of the year. Still waaaaay behind AVERAGE... ;)
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Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!
Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL. :roll: For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe. :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
I was hoping for at least an inch, but sit on 0.82", better than a sharp stick in the eye, and my best single event of the year. Still waaaaay behind AVERAGE... ;)
Nice. Now I need to go out back and sacrifice a rodent so we might get some precipitation too.
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Last winter was one of our warmest and this year starting well below normal I mean average.
:lol: Oh, snap!
Anyway, the whole CONUS has been under long-waves, short-waves troughs for at least the last month, except for FL. :roll: For the second straight year, I went from summer to winter. What's fall? And all that rain I was hoping for, all training north of me....again. I'll stop whining now...maybe. :-({|=
It sucks when you need rain to see it all training so close. Been there done that.
I was hoping for at least an inch, but sit on 0.82", better than a sharp stick in the eye, and my best single event of the year. Still waaaaay behind AVERAGE... ;)
Nice. Now I need to go out back and sacrifice a rodent so we might get some precipitation too.
:???:
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The website snow stake cam this morning, 6.5", and what potentially could be a historical storm next week with another 24". Still, a little early but forecasters have confidence. This winter is turning into a doozy.
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We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS. And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.
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We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS. And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.
We've been very dry too. Very unusual for this much moisture in December. Looks like your all rain with maybe a 1/3" of moisture.
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We can hope. Final track will determine it. Nudge it a bit south?
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Where are you pulling those snowfall graphics from? I don't recall seeing that version before.
Bismarck, ND is probably going to get hit hard it's sounding like. So I'd like to see that page.
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Pivotal Weather I have a subscription but they do offer free viewing. Here are the GFS and ECMWF models.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120922&fh=1&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022120918&fh=6&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS. And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.
This probably doesn't help build confidence, either. You're very lonely on this total 1-7 day QPF. :sad:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1670627599
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NWS North Platte
@NWSNorthPlatte
·
9m
An intense winter storm will develop across eastern Colorado on Monday and track slowly northeast into western Iowa by Wednesday. This will bring the potential for heavy snow, high winds, rain, and the possibility of freezing rain or sleet to western and north central NE. #NEwx
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We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS. And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.
This probably doesn't help build confidence, either. You're very lonely on this total 1-7 day QPF. :sad:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1670627599
We are on an extended dry or drought period in most of western KS. Hard to break out of the pattern, as you know.
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NWS North Platte
@NWSNorthPlatte
·
9m
An intense winter storm will develop across eastern Colorado on Monday and track slowly northeast into western Iowa by Wednesday. This will bring the potential for heavy snow, high winds, rain, and the possibility of freezing rain or sleet to western and north central NE. #NEw
Got your bulldozer ready, Randy?
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Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.
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Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.
Sounds like me when tracking tropical storms. :grin:
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Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.
Got the blizzard warnings up for you I see.
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Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.
Got the blizzard warnings up for you I see.
For western Cherry, not here on the east side yet. They did say they may have to expand the blizzard warning.
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Time of the year with colder storms, as I pay more attention to the dew point than ambient temp.
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Well, they updated the snowfall potential map ...12" for Valentine now. This might get interesting after all with 55 mph wind gusts. This is very unusual to have this kind of moisture 1.5" plus for December here. Spring storms are where this normally happens once or twice a decade. And now it's looking like next week -20 below and single-digit highs so this snow isn't going anywhere soon.
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It looks like some ice may be in store for you (https://www.weather.gov/lbf/winter) as well, Randy. Stay warm and safe!
So far southeast Nebraska is looking at rain only in our forecast. I hope they're right!
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It looks like some ice may be in store for you (https://www.weather.gov/lbf/winter) as well, Randy. Stay warm and safe!
So far southeast Nebraska is looking at rain only in our forecast. I hope they're right!
Thanks, checking in and looks like the bulk today has moved through but this goes on through Thursday so more to come.
10" so far my snow stake cam image I'll post. I actually measure officially off a snowboard. The snow stake started with 1.7" from previous snow. One thing I'm seeing is 9:1 so it's wet and heavy so far. Expect as the storm progresses and it gets more arctic air mixed in this 9:1 will be 14:1 or so. You can surely build the depth fast if that occurs but also blows easily with the wind. They are still saying 55 mph gust once the artic air comes in. Today very light 9-15 mph so what you see is very accurate.
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Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.
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Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.
What a mess today, with the wind.
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
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Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.
What a mess today, with the wind.
I bet it is. What was the total snowfall at your station, or did I miss that post?
We stayed dry, only .24" liquid, for the whole storm system. Wind gusted 40-45 numerous times. Don't remember the last time temperatures fell during the day with a south wind 20-35 mph. Yesterday started at 50 F at 6:00 a.m. and fell into the 30s by dusk.
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Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.
What a mess today, with the wind.
I bet it is. What was the total snowfall at your station, or did I miss that post?
We stayed dry, only .24" liquid, for the whole storm system. Wind gusted 40-45 numerous times. Don't remember the last time temperatures fell during the day with a south wind 20-35 mph. Yesterday started at 50 F at 6:00 a.m. and fell into the 30s by dusk.
10.3" new snow here was what I recorded we had 2" leftover from the prior storm. NWS reported the same. It actually was a heavy nice snow not a whole lot of wind during the snowfall. (9: 1) snow you wouldn't know it now the wind has drifted it everywhere. All roads are closed in and out. Travel at your own risk.
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
Sick of winter already, it's fun at first but gets old.
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
Sick of winter already, it's fun at first but gets old.
I haven't found winter fun in three decades. Still don't.
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Northern Lower Peninsula, Michigan. Lived in interior Alaska for 18 years too. I like winter but usually "done" by late January, this year I'm already there - or here as the case may be.
We had an early lake effect event with right around 2 feet of snow, way to early for that. Most has melted but it threw off our (dogs and mine) walking routine. Ah the struggles of being retired :grin:
(https://www.lakehuronweather.org/bin/images/TeamToolik2022.jpg)
Edit: added image
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
Our fireplace is not working. #-o
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
Our fireplace is not working. #-o
Chief, how does one "break" ones fireplace?
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64 mph gust today.
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Randy what was the chill temp with that gust?
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Randy what was the chill temp with that gust?
IDK it was 18° the windchill is figured off of sustained wind I believe. We are running negative single digits today for WC.
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Winds are just starting here in Bismarck, ND. No camera to show you. But blizzard conditions are in effect. Winds are at 42mph, expecting 50mph later.
Wind chill is at -4F.
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Winds are just starting here in Bismarck, ND. No camera to show you. But blizzard conditions are in effect. Winds are at 42mph, expecting 50mph later.
Wind chill is at -4F.
That is awful. And you still haven't gotten the cold front dipping all the way down from Siberia. When it gets to Oklahoma City, the temp may not get above freezing from Dec. 21 to Dec. 25. So far, no major snowstorm is expected.
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There is light at the end of the tunnel. Blizzard Warning expires at 3 pm central. Hasn't stopped the snowfall yet. The wind has calmed substantially 25 - 36 mph. The only exit that's not blocked is the garage thank's to a neighbor that brought his Kubota with a shovel over. As I mentioned before heavy snow storms in December here are rare. I measured over 2" of moisture and around 20" for the month of December and only halfway through. Next up is the Siberian cold due to roll in on Monday. Below zero high temps possible.
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Impressive. Haven't had a storm like that in this county for 30 years or more. We could take some of that moisture off your hands. Seriously, hope everyone is pulling through okay. Pity the ranchers.
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We received about 20 inches in the storm since Tuesday. In November, we had 24 inch storm. So we're already above average snowfall for a season.
Snow is finally stopping. Probably wait for winds to stop and won't snow blow until tomorrow. Interstates are still closed. Roads in lower half and eastern half are closed.
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
Our fireplace is not working. #-o
Chief, how does one "break" ones fireplace?
We were lucky. The wall switch was bad. But he cleaned the lighter, and other things in the gas fireplace.
We are also lucky. It has been snowing for 4-5 days straight. But missed the majority of the snow. 5 total. But the snow is very wet. I made a snow ball and it was packed like a rock. When it freezes the next week, we will be one big glacier.
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55 mph when artic air moves in :shock:
Pardon me but ef that!
:lol:
Our fireplace is not working. #-o
Chief, how does one "break" ones fireplace?
We were lucky. The wall switch was bad. But he cleaned the lighter, and other things in the gas fireplace.
We are also lucky. It has been snowing for 4-5 days straight. But missed the majority of the snow. 5 total. But the snow is very wet. I made a snow ball and it was packed like a rock. When it freezes the next week, we will be one big glacier.
Ah, certainly glad all's well. As I'm sure you know, they can be more dangerous than one may think.
The wet snow comment reminds me of waiting for the school bus circa 1968 with a very wet snow on the ground. It was a "thing" then to take a snow ball and squeeze as much water from it over several minutes to basically turn into an semi ice ball. I took it square in the face. Didn't tickle.
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Wow, Stillwater may get 8.7" of snow next Friday for a white Christmas Eve Eve. Missouri may get even more.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC01272.JPG)
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still snowing today. Should end later today. I hope.
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Wow, Stillwater may get 8.7" of snow next Friday for a white Christmas Eve Eve. Missouri may get even more.
However, the Saturday weatherman for Channel 4 didn't have a snowfall map to show and talked liked there wouldn't be much snow. It is still supposed to get very cold. He also said latest data he saw indicated that the cold front wouldn't hang around for long and may warm up to 44 on Monday. Maybe hype man Mike Morgan needs to throw his computer out the window.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/mikemorgan.jpg)
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North Platte FCO put this out a few minutes ago.
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cold here too.
3F now. Worse and more WC as the week goes on. At least I got the heavy snow off the end of the driveway before it completely turned to ice. Had to call a plow.
Now I just need to keep the rabbits off the porch.
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I watched South Dakota State vs Montana State play a semi-final FB game at (5°) yesterday in Brookings SD. Nutts
The small 4-year college championship will be in Frisco Tx. With SDSU vs NDSU should be a good one and a lot warmer.
A lot of Valentine area locals including rancher's kids go to SDSU. More so than down in Lincoln. "Nebraska"
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CMC Model showing a high of 34 down here for Saturday. GFS at 41. That's a cold high temp for north central Florida.
Still a week out though.
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CMC Model showing a high of 34 down here for Saturday. GFS at 41. That's a cold high temp for north central Florida.
Still a week out though.
Wow. I'm seeing lows in the lower 20's for Saturday morning. So, I'm guessing a bag of oranges will go from $25 to $50. Wonderful. :roll:
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I watched South Dakota State vs Montana State play a semi-final FB game at (5°) yesterday in Brookings SD. Nutts
The small 4-year college championship will be in Frisco Tx. With SDSU vs NDSU should be a good one and a lot warmer.
A lot of Valentine area locals including rancher's kids go to SDSU. More so than down in Lincoln. "Nebraska"
Both will travel well. We know how NDSU travels.
But they should move that to MPLS. It would sell out 65K.
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going to be cold this week.
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Thank goodness, the weather lady at OKC's channel 5 has a 2nd opinion about what the snow is going to do. Most of Oklahoma will have none to a trace of snow. Still getting a lot colder with the low getting down to 2 in OKC.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/images/ch5wx.JPG)
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TV Weatherman David Payne on channel 9 says snow on Thursday will be trace to 1/2" in OKC. Up to 1" in Enid, Stillwater and Tulsa. But totals will shift. Snow will be heavier in Missouri from Springfield to St. Louis. I-44 may have to be closed due to drifting snow. Low may be -3.
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Wish I could send you ours.
More worried about the high temp -17° with a potential -50° windchill.
This is what they are saying about the historical winter weather.
" -The harshest winter weather since 1983 appears to be heading toward Nebraska. Dangerous wind chill readings of -30F to -50F, strong winds, snow and blowing snow are likely this week."
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Latest GFS models have backed off on snow totals. But Chicago area may get close to a foot. Thank goodness OKC TV weatherman Mike Morgan has backed off a lot on snow total for Stillwater, going from 8.7" to only .7". Thanks for the big downsizing. If I were him, I would give up presenting sensational snow totals days too early in advance no matter how highly much a computer model shows. But as old as he is getting, maybe he will never learn.
Eggs, bread, and milk sections were running low at Walmart this evening. It's hard to believe people are still buying eggs since prices have doubled + on them. Thank goodness this unusual cold snap won't be as extreme and long lasting as the freaky one was here in Feb. 2021. It was unforgettable. It got down to -10 here. For Texas, it killed off a lot of palm trees. Highs here are forecast to be back in the 50s by mid next week.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/images/xmassnow22.png)
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-50 wind chill here as well
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NWS has upgraded our weather alert from Winter Storm Warning to Blizzard Warning. Even though we haven't seen a flake of snow yet (3 PM Wednesday), all the schools have already announced that they will be closed tomorrow.
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Short video of current conditions. (-9.3°f, Wind Chill -35° with 22 mph sustained wind and heavy snow) and someone is still delivering packages.
https://www.valentinenebraska.net/20221221.mp4
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Wow, very busy map. While just about everyone east of the Rockies will freeze for the Christmas weekend, we'll actually have a ridge over us and our first above average temps in weeks. Stay safe y'all!
https://www.weather.gov/
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Current Windchills
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Passage of Siberian cold front here caused the temp here to plunge from 40 to 20 degrees in an hour early Thursday morning. From there the temp dropped to .7 degrees before stopping. It snowed a bit under an inch. For Friday morning we'll see if it will be able to drop below zero. The wind is still blowing some, so maybe it won't.
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Most of the country is under some brutal temperature swings overnite and today. Chicago's Chiberia extreme was a drop of about 40° in the past 24 hours.
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Continued cold and wind for the next several days. Yikes!
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Even far South in Houston we went from 57.4F @ 1:42pm yesterday, to 15.1F @ 6:50am this morning. A 42.3F drop. But it was the feels like of 3.8F that makes it much worse.
A bit better now with 23F, 12.4F feel like. Wind is still gusting up to 17mph.
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I went out to pick up a package this afternoon when our temp had risen to 9°F. My car had been sitting in my unheated garage for two days so it was quite cold as well. The snowmelt treatment the city uses has worked, but the streets are wet. After I pulled back into my garage the errand having been completed, I tried to use the windshield washer to clean the front and rear windows. It was a no-go! The washer fluid has apparently frozen solid. Now that's cold!
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40 degree difference for the fropa here. High of 66 on Friday and a low of 26 on Saturday morning.
What impressed me most was the dewpoint. It got to 12 here with single digits just to my north. That's unheard of around here. Still around 15 as of this writing.
By next weekend our temps are back into the low 80's.
Guess La Nina took a break this weekend.
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had about 5 inches of snow yesterday
working on another 5 now.
Virtual school day today.
Not working on the driveway until it quits snowing.
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had about 5 inches of snow yesterday
working on another 5 now.
Virtual school day today.
Not working on the driveway until it quits snowing.
We got 13" out of it. It settles fast down to about 11" https://www.valentinenebraska.net/snowcam.jpg
This winter has been something else. 36.8" already.
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Drought continues. Only .18" and none of it snow.
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Drought continues. Only .18" and none of it snow.
I was afraid of that, not everyone's getting hit. North Platte where the forecast office is located 130 miles south got 5.9". They reported 15" at our airport I only measured 13" though.
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If my memory is correct, the NWS seasonal had forecast a better chance for wetter and colder weather for your area the N Plains. It is going to take a major weather pattern change for us to break out of this drought. I am a big believer in the power of El Nino and La Nina to affect our weather here.
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Good grief! It's only Jan. 6, and 5 tornadoes for Oklahoma sets a record for the most tornadoes ever in the month of January. One of them was only two counties away from me! January for the next 7 days doesn't look very stormy with no unusually cold days.
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If my memory is correct, the NWS seasonal had forecast a better chance for wetter and colder weather for your area the N Plains. It is going to take a major weather pattern change for us to break out of this drought. I am a big believer in the power of El Nino and La Nina to affect our weather here.
Think you are right. I'm loving the deep snowpack reminds me of my mountain home. This is actually my birthplace and I decided to retire here because it was so much like the mountains I loved. Ponderosa pines and blue spruce grow naturally along the rivers around here.
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A warm January, so far, in Oklahoma City probably reflects that much of the country has been warm in early 2023. With nothing record setting, during the first 11 days of January, Oklahoma City has had above average highs every day. There will be cold fronts during the next ten days, but nothing unusually cold.
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Ended up getting another 8" yesterday. I'm rethinking this snow thing mainly because the roads are always bad and inside the garage is always wet. Some areas SE picked up a couple of feet yesterday. North Platte set an all-time daily snowfall mark (13.9") which dates back to March of 1894. Here in Northern Nebraska sitting at 45" total so far and this isn't our snowiest period which comes in late February and March. What a way to break the drought we were in.
Welp time to fire up the snow blower again.
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I was on the southern fringe of the snowfall. If the 0.71" of rain/freezing rain had been snow, the total would have been impressive. As it is we received just a dusting of snow atop the sleet and freezing rain.
The Weather Channel camped out in Omaha and were disappointed that the snowfall there was so meager.
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:lol: derives them right. Ended up with (.75") moisture here with the 8" of snow. Spoke with one of the North Platte forecasters this morning he's been there for 21 years and said he's never seen a winter like this. By that he meant heavy snow in December and January. We've had spring blizzards in the 14" range even since I've been here but those spring blizzards are gone the same week. Different when it's mid-winter and it sticks around.
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I was on the southern fringe of the snowfall. If the 0.71" of rain/freezing rain had been snow, the total would have been impressive. As it is we received just a dusting of snow atop the sleet and freezing rain.
The Weather Channel camped out in Omaha and were disappointed that the snowfall there was so meager.
Like you, we were on the southern edge here in northern KS. Sharp drop off in snow amounts north to south. I measured core on snowboard at .73" water equivalent and CoCoRaHS gauge catch was .64". We had some freezing rain, lots of sleet, and snow over 24 hrs. Snow depth 3" on top of about 1/2" of ice/sleet.
I was very surprised at the liquid equivalent based on what was on the snow board. Cannot explain why it is so much. 3.5" to .73" water is a heck of a ratio, isn't it? No nearby stations I can check amounts with either.
We welcome the moisture. Very dry here in last year.
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I was on the southern fringe of the snowfall. If the 0.71" of rain/freezing rain had been snow, the total would have been impressive. As it is we received just a dusting of snow atop the sleet and freezing rain.
The Weather Channel camped out in Omaha and were disappointed that the snowfall there was so meager.
Like you, we were on the southern edge here in northern KS. Sharp drop off in snow amounts north to south. I measured core on snowboard at .73" water equivalent and CoCoRaHS gauge catch was .64". We had some freezing rain, lots of sleet, and snow over 24 hrs. Snow depth 3" on top of about 1/2" of ice/sleet.
I was very surprised at the liquid equivalent based on what was on the snow board. Cannot explain why it is so much. 3.5" to .73" water is a heck of a ratio, isn't it? No nearby stations I can check amounts with either.
We welcome the moisture. Very dry here in last year.
Truthfully that's why I stopped doing cores was some of the ridiculous high readings I would occasionally get.
I don't even own a Cocorahs gauge anymore, gave all mine away. For snowfall they just don't work like an 8" diameter gauge. I have 2 cans in the 8" size so just switch them out. The reason I do that during an all-day storm is to update the website. The heating tipping bucket gets way behind if the temps are under say about 25° which it usually is here.
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?????
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Guess what. It is cold.
But NBC is acting like it is the next ice age.
"Generational cold" Lord god almighty-talk about inflation of the news.
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First definitive ridge in three months. Bout time. :roll: Should push 80F fairly easily, albeit short-lived.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southwest-09-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Quite a whiplash taking the dog out first thing in the morning last two days. Saturday: -10°F and windy. Sunday: 25°F and calm. As the saying goes in so many places, including New England, if you don't like the weather, just wait a few hours.
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Mid 20F's progged for Wed. morning, which if comes to fruition, would be the coldest temps of the year. Spent practically the entire season with below average temps. Don't know about you guys, but I'm ready for winter to take a hike. :roll:
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The barometer has been sinking to low levels seldom seen in the mid part of the country. 29.28 in OKC. In Wichita 29.15. A minor hurricane gets down to around 29.00. Hopefully, that will only be the only unusually extreme part of the weather coming. At least I'm glad it's not April with TV meteorologists getting concerned about tornadoes.
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They do seem to hyperventilate some times. :lol:
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At least I'm glad it's not April with TV meteorologists getting concerned about tornadoes.
I haven't watched local news/wx in several years, for various reasons (use your imagination :roll:). I basically use only two sources, the NWS and me. That way, I can be "sensationalized" on my terms, not theirs. Works like a charm.
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almost an inch of rain today
not normal for Feb
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At least I'm glad it's not April with TV meteorologists getting concerned about tornadoes.
I haven't watched local news/wx in several years, for various reasons (use your imagination :roll:). I basically use only two sources, the NWS and me. That way, I can be "sensationalized" on my terms, not theirs. Works like a charm.
Sensationalized on my terms?
I like that. [tup]
I'm the same way. When ever severe weather approaches I get all I need from my weather apps.
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Thanks. It snowed for hours here last night. Didn't accumulate, temp was a constant ~32F, but piled up in corners of walls and such. Beautiful.
Now, that said, where's spring??
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With 40+ degree temperatures this week all the snow from last Thursday's storm is melted. But here we go again, one week later under a winter storm warning, 5 to 7 inches predicted this time with gusty winds up to 35 mph. At least the temps are cool enough now so the snow blower should move it instead of having to hand shovel the wet heavy stuff like last week.
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All of this great weather .......we are going to pay for it.
8-12 inches this week. Windy/possible blizzard conditions Thursday.
Cant be surprised. But we were just getting the snow melted.
May not have school Thursday.
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From today's Sally Forth Sunday comic:
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Upcoming Snow Totals For The Twin Cities (19"-25").
https://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
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Batten down the hatches! Wednesday looks to be one of the windiest days in the 34 years I've been here. Gusts to 60 mph in the valleys, and 70 in the sky islands. Winter still has no intention of leaving any time soon.
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Upcoming Snow Totals For The Twin Cities (19"-25").
https://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
I am guessing
Tuesday-school
Wednesday-school with possible early out depending on district
Thursday-No school.
I already changed plans depending on what happens this week.
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E-learning Wednesday and Thursday.
Expecting 20 inches or so. Yuck
but also have to keep an eye on a-hole neighbor so that he does not try to push his snow onto my yard again. Which is illegal in Minnesota.
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but also have to keep an eye on a-hole neighbor so that he does not try to push his snow onto my yard again. Which is illegal in Minnesota.
Sad, a law is needed for that.
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but also have to keep an eye on a-hole neighbor so that he does not try to push his snow onto my yard again. Which is illegal in Minnesota.
Sad, a law is needed for that.
Same neighbor I have had issues with since he moved in.
When I confronted him, I was verbally abused by he and his wife.
I will just call the cops on him......again.
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Wow, that sucks. I imagine we all have had neighbors we wish we could "eliminate" at some time or another. The last time I moved was because of that exact reason. Had enough. Fortunately, I'm now blessed with the best neighbors one could have. They even feed me all the time... GL.
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E-learning Wednesday and Thursday.
Expecting 20 inches or so. Yuck
but also have to keep an eye on a-hole neighbor so that he does not try to push his snow onto my yard again. Which is illegal in Minnesota.
That's why I moved to the woods. No neighbors.
I keep hearing about this storm going across the northern states. Being described as a storm of a lifetime with 20 plus inches of snow. I would have thought this was just another winter storm for you guys. 20 inches, while a lot doesn't seem that bad. Maybe I've been away from it too long. :???:
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Not often that we get 20. But the hype is crazy. I didnt get a lot last night.
They have backed off a little.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 18. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow, mainly before noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow before 9am. High near 21. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
I have one neighbor that I usually clean out her drive. And another one ask if I could do theirs.
Had to say no because of the new knee. Oh yeah, I had knee replacement Jan 10.
Others are going to help them this week. I did mine today and that was enough for me.
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Meanwhile, further south and east, we have had constant rain that started this morning around 7 and is going to continue for about another hour or so.
Total rain: 1.05 (but not 10 inches of snow)
Further south into Indiana they could be getting closer to 2 inches. Very unusual for mid to late February.
Minnesota and Wisconsin are getting the worst of it with snow, wind and deep freeze cold.
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ooof that drop
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This is nuts. Winter has zero intention of leaving the west. Snow level down to 3500' tonight, then, next Thursday, yes, March, maybe snow down to the valley floor, again. I'm not sure I've ever seen snow here in March. One thing for sure, once this long wave pattern moves north, it''l be just like last year, straight from summer to winter. I see little hope of a meaningful "spring" here. At least we got some decent rains. =D>
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Wow...
...SUMMARY...
A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded
swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on
parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are
anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong
(EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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Just saw that. Ugh.
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1.75 inches of rain in east central Iowa (Cedar Rapids area) last night. Glad it was rain instead of snow/ice!
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1.75 inches of rain in east central Iowa (Cedar Rapids area) last night. Glad it was rain instead of snow/ice!
That's great. There is still a drought here. It still rains sometimes, but the problem is that it doesn't rain much at all when it does. For instance, a couple of days it only rained .06".
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Now that was a FROPA. Temp just dropped 20F in 20 minutes and the pressure is rising like a home sick angel. I fully expect to see flurries fairly soon. Two snows in one season? And it's March to boot. :shock:
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I fully expect to see flurries fairly soon.
Well, that sure as hell didn't take long.. Big, wet flakes! Did I move or somethin'..
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One of our local newspapers, celebrating their 75th anniversary this year, ran a "Weather in Chicago" article:
https://paper.suntimes.com/infinity/article_popover_share.aspx?guid=7de2d045-b65b-4ad8-8adc-6dbf31f7a6d3
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I stated a few weeks back that we would have zero spring, just like no fall last year from this season's never ending winter. It's obviously panning out to be exactly as that.
Per my WFO...
CLIMATE...The cooler than normal first 11 weeks of 2023 will
continue for the next week if not the rest of March per the latest
6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks.
For Tucson, the current temperature forecast for Wednesday thru
Sunday has highs in the lower to mid 60s each day. Looking back at
the historical record for Tucson, the last time there were 5
consecutive days with highs 65 degrees or cooler during the last
10 days of March was in 1975.
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Our cooling trend across the high plains started last Nov. and continues into the spring. Here in Valentine measured (67.1") (1.7 meters) of snowfall this season. The bigger snows came pre-Christmas along with a 3-day blizzard so was on the ground all winter.
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Our cooling trend across the high plains started last Nov. and continues into the spring. Here in Valentine measured (67.1") (1.7 meters) of snowfall this season. The bigger snows came pre-Christmas along with a 3-day blizzard so was on the ground all winter.
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Randy,
Something is wrong—we are in global warming. Your stats must be wrong! Maybe I can keep my gas stove after all!
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I hear you. Something that happened in Valentine was our airport ASOS mysteriously and suddenly started reading (+1.8°) high during Obama's last year in office. I can't say whether it was done on purpose but can confirm they finally adjusted it back to normal last June after (6 years) and was told by a NWS employee I was right about it all along. I had done several field tests to confirm the error was real and blogged about it multiple times on my website so the local forecast office was aware of my concerns. I'm not sure this didn't happen with other stations around the country. Many factors have biased numbers toward warming from poor thermometer siting including heat islands at almost every major city to just the fact they went from mercury thermometers to thermistor types that respond faster than old mercury thermometers. Lots of things are in play and being ignored if it doesn't fit into the climate cult narrative.