Well, so far, so good!
Today, I hole-sawed the bottom hub plate for the bottom bearing, trimmed a few inches off the standpipe, and assembled everything for a test.
The top and bottom bearings are in place, as well as the top vane and indoor indicator, both made from 1/2" copper water pipe. You can see both of them in the photo. The vane has a temporary 18 square inch cardboard tail taped on it for testing.
In the limited wind the driveway experienced this afternoon, it worked pretty well. Based on looking at the Davis anny above the roof, I'd estimate the threshold to be 1-2 MPH.
I don't think bearing friction will be much of an issue. If anything, that and the mass of the rotating assembly might tend to damp out some of the swinging that a Davis vane does.
At Ace, I had a choice of bronze bushings or radial ball bearings, and chose the balls. They are sorta sealed.
If the drag is too much, I can always wash out some of the grease (about the viscosity of Vaseline) with a little solvent.
Also, the indicator weight... If the copper pipe one adds too much rotational mass, I was thinking about a big aluminum knitting needle. I like the red/black color scheme idea, like a compass needle...
The sheet copper from McMaster-Carr arrived today. I can start working on the final vane arrow pointer and fletching (at least double the 18 in^2 I have now, if not more), and the directional letters...
FWIW, I captured a little less than 30 seconds of "first wind) at
https://youtu.be/JjuKGuX5V-w. It's not a wild swing, but you can see everything tracking.