Author Topic: Where are the forecast models run, and who is charged with doing so?  (Read 131 times)

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Online DaleReid

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There are at least 5 or 7 models used to predict the next few days' weather.

A new one was implemented a few years ago and a lot of comparison, especially against the European Model, often being held out as being more accurate in some parameters.

I'm curious about these programs.

a) Where did they come from?  Is it entirely the charge of the NWS to run them?  Many universities have a great deal of talent in studying the weather, gathering data and so on.  Is there any involvement fromthem?

b) How are these programs maintained?  Is there a team of scientists and programmers who constantly tweak them, or is it like  upgrading Windows years ago when a new release comes along to be loaded and run?

c)  I come from an area where CRAY machines were designed and built, and in addition to being shipped to and installed in Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore type labs, it was always a point of pride that those machines, and I'm sure some of the other parallel processers of massive size, were used in weather forecasting.  Where are the data centers, even in this day  of cloud computing?  Are there two or three clusters in Oklahoma City or such?

d)  Do all the various models get run by NWS and then those data are released for study and use by the TV stations, etc?  Or does only the officially accepted one get run by NWS and all the rest are run by universities to be released on a regular basis?

e) What language are the models written in?  Just kidding, making sure someone is awake.

Obviously a subject that there isn't a lot of information about that I've found to the detail I'd like, and I don't know professional meteorologists, so I'm hoping at least some end-of-the-bar type stories can be told.

And happy new year to all.  Dale
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Online DaleReid

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Re: Where are the forecast models run, and who is charged with doing so?
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2023, 08:30:54 AM »
I forgot to ask in the series of questions:  Could all those bitcoin data mining and transaction centers be converted to run the types of programs needed to analyze the weather predictions and make the programs even more accurate?  I'm not sure how many of them there are, but a mind boggling number of processors and graphics chip type of hardware are running sucking up electricity that shouldn't be wasted. It would be nice to have some worthwhile outcome from all those installations.

Thanks again, Dale
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Offline zoomx

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Re: Where are the forecast models run, and who is charged with doing so?
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2023, 03:53:50 PM »
Maybe you can find some answers here
https://weather.us/model-charts
Quote
Many different national weather centers have supercomputers that run weather models. Each of these is slightly different, using different equations to solve for various physical processes that shape our weather patterns. Many of them also have slightly different resolutions, and use slightly different combinations of initial data sources.

Glogbal models like ECMWF and GFS and many big local models like NAM require supercomputers but small local models can be run in bitcoin data mining and transaction centers, I believe.
Some small models can be downloaded and runned also in small datacenter and, maybe, in a PC