Author Topic: Spring/Summer '18  (Read 23971 times)

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #225 on: May 31, 2018, 06:37:00 PM »
I've only heard that the season is slower than expected, but no numbers or comparisons.  'Course as we speak there are a few warnings.  Our county had one a few weeks ago that ripped a few buildings apart.

New forecasts are calling for a slow Hurricane season too, but who knows.


Offline Jstx

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #226 on: May 31, 2018, 09:09:29 PM »
The CPC has a Seasonal Outlook for 2018 mid-term which is predicting 'daily average temperatures' (presume that 'min lows', etc., will be higher too) of up to +12degF for much of the West, SW, and MidWest. At the same time the Precip Outlook is lower.
So, higher temps, less rain, would likely minimize tornado formation, along with other forms of terrestrial severe WX while exacerbating the drought.
This is not a good thing, long term. NSTACCT...

Around here we've been getting higher temps than normal (6-12degF) for a couple of months, after a fairly mild, and comfortably cool, winter and spring. This early +100degF sucks.

TPC has a TS forming near the Yucatan in the next week or two, then tracking NW towards the West Gulf, sounds like Texas to me. Our blocking high may shift out by then (haven't looked at any models yet), which would open the door.
These type tracking TS's often intensify before landfall, so ruh-oh batten down the hatches. Gulf SST/seawater temperatures are and have been quite high for months so cyclones have plenty of fuel out there.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #227 on: May 31, 2018, 09:52:55 PM »
Tornadoes does look way down for 2018. Weather segment I saw yesterday ( Think it was a storm chaser site complaining ) said we would need 100 tornadoes before end of month (only few days left ) or near levels not seen since the 50's.
 
What I found here from NOAA May 24th.
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Randy

Offline Jstx

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #228 on: May 31, 2018, 10:46:18 PM »
That TStats sure does have 2018 way down. ENSO/El Nino factors into what I read.
I've looked for the text report that had that +12degF above 'daily avg temp' and can't find it on a tab, I'll poke around in the browser history. It was part of an extended text forecast.
I don't doubt because we've been living it for weeks now.
Even the teevee WX jocks are now mentioning that things have been/are way above the averages lately and will continue. We don't usually get into the periodic excessive temp multi-day/week stretches until late July-September.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/t.gif

https://www.weather.gov/hun/climateforecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
"PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2018
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
 
ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUMMER 2018 WITH A GROWING CHANCE OF
EL NINO BY FALL AND WINTER 2018-19. THE JUNE-AUGUST (JJA) 2018 TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES (CONUS), THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VICINITY THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST, WHERE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES REACH OR EXCEED 60%
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKEWISE
FAVORED OVER ALASKA, WITH THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES OVER CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA.
 
THE JJA 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS ALSO
FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST.
 
IN SUBSEQUENT LEADS THE INCREASED ODDS OF EL NINO ARE FACTORED INTO THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. GENERALLY, THIS IS MANIFEST IN TERMS OF
PROBABILITIES BEING SHIFTED TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER OUTCOMES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IN THE FALL AND WINTER RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.
LIKEWISE, ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S., ESPECIALLY FROM SON THROUGH JFM.
 
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE
INDICATED FOR SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
http://HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS "

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #229 on: June 01, 2018, 03:47:06 AM »
Final for May '18

Code: [Select]
[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 75.4   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   6.25   
DPTR FM NORMAL:   8.2   DPTR FM NORMAL:    1.31


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #230 on: June 01, 2018, 05:17:03 AM »
Convection outlook for supercell development shifted east some 50-80 miles for today which I'm fine with. Ended being abnormal warm for May +5.5°. First above normal month this year, rainfall also above normal on year and month. Crops should be doing very well.
Randy

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #231 on: June 01, 2018, 05:23:17 AM »
Tornadoes does look way down for 2018. Weather segment I saw yesterday ( Think it was a storm chaser site complaining ) said we would need 100 tornadoes before end of month (only few days left ) or near levels not seen since the 50's.
 
What I found here from NOAA May 24th.
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Wow, good find. I didn't realize that May had been so quiet. There were 3 or 4 just reported in Idaho yesterday.
Joe Fitzwater
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #232 on: June 01, 2018, 09:19:37 AM »
Yeah looks way down, don't know what we ended with but prelim numbers were very small on May 24th. Usually lose about 20% of those as actual tornadoes.
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #233 on: June 01, 2018, 09:34:58 AM »
And ALL 31 days were above normal, some by 12-13 degrees.

Forecast for next week coming into view may be back below normal for a few days.


Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #234 on: June 01, 2018, 12:54:27 PM »
Good chance of super cell development, enhanced risk along HW 83 tomorrow runs N to S center of state.  NAM has 4800 J kg locally with dew points near 70° supporting rapid development.  Might have a interesting evening tomorrow.

FSO Discussion:  stretch from
about Valentine to North Platte. There is a good chance for some
severe thunderstorm activity as the surface winds pick up from the
south and advect in some upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints into
the region, with the highest values along and east of Highway 83.
Off the surface, winds will be veering from the west from 25 to
50kt which will likely lead to rapid supercell development once
the cap is eroded. Large hail over 2 inches in diameter and severe
wind gusts are possible with initial development, a brief tornado
can never be ruled out.

Just got upgraded to a moderate risk.
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #235 on: June 01, 2018, 01:25:59 PM »
Good chance of super cell development, enhanced risk along HW 83 tomorrow runs N to S center of state.  NAM has 4800 J kg locally with dew points near 70° supporting rapid development.  Might have a interesting evening tomorrow.

FSO Discussion:  stretch from
about Valentine to North Platte. There is a good chance for some
severe thunderstorm activity as the surface winds pick up from the
south and advect in some upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints into
the region, with the highest values along and east of Highway 83.
Off the surface, winds will be veering from the west from 25 to
50kt which will likely lead to rapid supercell development once
the cap is eroded. Large hail over 2 inches in diameter and severe
wind gusts are possible with initial development, a brief tornado
can never be ruled out.

Just got upgraded to a moderate risk.

I see that, area of focus has shifted to SE leaving area I'm in only slight risk.
Randy

Offline ocala

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #236 on: June 01, 2018, 06:29:47 PM »
Ended May with 14.18 of rain.
A wet month indeed, and with the beginning of tropical season officially here could be a really wet year.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #237 on: June 01, 2018, 06:49:44 PM »
Ground down there must be a sponge or a big wetland with water everywhere. Oh yeah its Florida.  :-)
Randy

Offline Aardvark

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #238 on: June 01, 2018, 07:24:54 PM »
Right now in Des Moines,iowa  the armpit of Iowa.


Offline CW2274

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #239 on: June 01, 2018, 07:47:39 PM »
Ended May with 14.18 of rain.
A wet month indeed, and with the beginning of tropical season officially here could be a really wet year.
Oh jeez, how many more sink holes will that create.... 8-[

Offline ocala

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #240 on: June 01, 2018, 08:59:53 PM »
Ended May with 14.18 of rain.
A wet month indeed, and with the beginning of tropical season officially here could be a really wet year.
Oh jeez, how many more sink holes will that create.... 8-[
It's been really bad in the Ocala area.
Luckily none in my immediate area but in the past 2 years I am getting some un-nerving cracks in my dry wall and the stucco on the outside of the house. Had a foundation guy come out and he said as long as you can't stick a pencil in the cracks your ok. So far I'm in good shape.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline ocala

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #241 on: June 01, 2018, 09:02:39 PM »
Right now in Des Moines,iowa  the armpit of Iowa.
Little early for that eh?
We were at 92/105 today.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline Aardvark

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #242 on: June 01, 2018, 09:24:53 PM »
Right now in Des Moines,iowa  the armpit of Iowa.
Little early for that eh?
We were at 92/105 today.
you got me on Asthma  Friday.  The air quality is bad , and the asthma is not good.   :

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #243 on: June 02, 2018, 04:45:16 AM »
May 2018 Climate Review: Temperatures were well above normal, ranging from 7 to 8 degrees above normal across the region. Paducah, KY observed their warmest May on record, shattering the previous record set back in 1962. Around a dozen other locations across the region also observed their warmest May on record. Cape Girardeau, MO and Evansville, IN finished as the 2nd warmest May on record, both behind 1962. Temperatures were more reminiscent of June with high temperatures consistently in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. In fact, there have been 32 June's dating back to 1938 that have been colder than May 2018 was in Paducah, KY. In Evansville, IN there have been 37 June's dating back to 1897 that have been colder than May 2018. After a chilly April that felt more like March at times, the switch was flipped on May 1st with all 3 official climate stations registering above normal temperatures every single day of May. Looking back at previous months, it appears the last time Paducah, KY experienced a month in which every day was above normal was back in August 2007.

https://www.weather.gov/pah/May2018ClimateSummary

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #244 on: June 02, 2018, 04:52:21 AM »
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Offline ocala

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #245 on: June 02, 2018, 06:54:08 AM »
Good chance of super cell development, enhanced risk along HW 83 tomorrow runs N to S center of state.  NAM has 4800 J kg locally with dew points near 70° supporting rapid development.  Might have a interesting evening tomorrow.

FSO Discussion:  stretch from
about Valentine to North Platte. There is a good chance for some
severe thunderstorm activity as the surface winds pick up from the
south and advect in some upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints into
the region, with the highest values along and east of Highway 83.
Off the surface, winds will be veering from the west from 25 to
50kt which will likely lead to rapid supercell development once
the cap is eroded. Large hail over 2 inches in diameter and severe
wind gusts are possible with initial development, a brief tornado
can never be ruled out.

Just got upgraded to a moderate risk.

I see that, area of focus has shifted to SE leaving area I'm in only slight risk.
Man the was one hell of a line that formed right over you and moved east.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #246 on: June 02, 2018, 07:52:10 AM »
Yes it did, we were right where it started, fortunately by the time storms strengthened they drifted a few miles from town. Several motel parking lots were full of storm chasers yesterday. Counted about 20 rigs, those guys are pretty good at figuring out where the action will be. A couple pics of hail nearby.
Randy

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #247 on: June 02, 2018, 08:41:35 AM »
WeatherHost, I like that graphic.

ValentineWeather, I watched that on radar. You might have gotten lucky. It looked wicked in central and north central  Nebraska last night. The very SW end of that line finally clipped me very early after 2 a.m. here in Phillips County. By then it was just 3 hundredths and a gust of 25.


Offline JCA433

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #248 on: June 02, 2018, 11:22:33 AM »
I am not noticing any warming here in the spring season for the last three years.   Average temperature for the year through May 31 for 2016 was 71.1 F, 2017 71.6F, and this year 2018 71.2F.    The average temperature for the spring season (March 1 through May 31) in 2016 74.7F, 2017 74.0F, and this year 2018 72.9F.

Offline bchwdlks

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Re: Spring/Summer '18
« Reply #249 on: June 02, 2018, 01:50:28 PM »
This graphic shows how the Blue Ridge Escarpment collects the rainfall from tropical storms that come into southern Appalachian mountains from Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina coastlines.

Rabun County is in Georgia, its northern border is with North Carolina and the eastern border is with South Carolina. All of the counties with 10" to 20"+ rainfall amounts are where the taller mountains begin.

Alberto was not a powerful storm, but the rains before it and after it lasted a long time.

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