Topic: Fall/Winter '18/'19

[Jstx]

Meanwhile, the overnight low here was a chilly 58.3F (62.1F att), as we await what looks to be a dry front in the next hour (a W/NW -foehn/adiabatic wind- downslope frontal sys). That front, unlike most, is going to really warm up and dry out the atmo, with highs in the mid-70's this afternoon (brrrr).

Ocala (@#474), exactly, while the disturbed polar vortex and jet streams have brought colder/snowier-than-usual WX to many parts of the continental US, a very small part of Terra, many other parts of the world are having much warmer than average conditions. Particularly the polar regions, which are and will have grave consequences for all of us.
Meanwhile VW puts up the usual strawman arguments and "some scientists" say (on FauxNooz) BS blinded diversionary PR hype as a foil.

Here, compare current US 'heartland' temps and WX with those of some of the northernmost outposts on the continent (500-600 miles from the North Pole), on Ellesmere Island, Nunavit, Canada (Alert and Eureka/PEARL):
 https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-22_metric_e.html

 http://www.candac.ca/candacweb/content/pearl-weather-station .
I was sort of watching them a few weeks ago when that 'mini-ice age' hit the US midwest and east. Temps and conditions up there were actually much milder than down yonder, hmmm. (a number of them even have WU pages too)

Real scientists, real data: The whole International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) Arctic WX sites:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/iasoa/obs_tour

[jas340]

I really like this topic on regional weather. The thing is, many times I have no idea where posters actually live. Frustrating. I ask that you put your city and state in your profile section. Thanks.

http://horseshoebendidahoweather.com/template/indexDesktop.php

[chief-david]

Big snow. Nebraska blizzard. Iowa snow and worse.
Moving in later. Mixed bag of mess. We have a lot of family here for one kids musical. Not sure if anyone is going North or South tomorrow.

BTW-the kid is amazing. Sings, dances, emotions. The whole package.

[SlowModem]

In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.

You're getting up there with DanS for warm temperatures in the winter.  Am I correct that temps in the 80s are unusual for FL in Feb?

[SlowModem]

It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today. 

From last Saturday the 16th until this morning at 7:00 am, I had reported 6.07 in. rain to CoCoRaHS.  From 7:00 am this morning until now (7:46 pm) I have recorded 2.37 in. rain for a grand total (so far) of 8.44 in. rain.  There is widespread flooding, landslides and trees falling everywhere.  They are predicting a tornado watch (tornado not likely but high winds are expected) later and more rain as the front approaches.

Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and warm.  It will be interesting to see what the rain total is after all is said and done.

I hate to think of what it would be like if it was snow.  I'm really glad it's not snow.

[Jstx]

In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
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You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.

You're getting up there with DanS for warm temperatures in the winter.  Am I correct that temps in the 80s are unusual for FL in Feb?

Not at all, 80s are more the Feb norm in FL, often in S TX too. Checked my own Feb 2018 WU data table and the month's high was 84.2Fdeg, with a 59F average. Have seen temps in the 100-107F range in all months, incl winter here too, in the past.

A good place to see it visualized is at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) links, the "Regional Climate Maps: USA" here:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/usa.shtml#monthly  .

You can select weekly, monthly, 3mo, yearly climate periods for average temps, precip, extremes, departures, etc., in color-coded graphic form for the whole USA.
Look over the temp and 'departure from normal' maps for any time interval to get an idea. Like for FL, if the temp normal is already approaching 70 or 80, and the departure map shows a 4deg cooler than average for the same period, you can figure that a 'normal ave' would be higher.

If you go to this sublink, the '1 month Archives', you can select any month for various years. Somehow, 2015 is the last year available, maybe processing later ones has been cut off by recent malicious budget cuts to NOAA's budget? (Jan 2019 is available in the 'current' pages at above link)

NOAA's CPC USA Monthly Graphics Archive:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1-month-archive.shtml

Of course, all the actual, real, scientific gathered weather data (some from CWOP-MADIS reporting by many here?) in various numerical forms is also available from the CPC, and the rest of NOAA, and can be dug out with varying levels of effort.
But the above links show more usable, readable, graphics (interesting too) derived from all that raw data.

It's all the way down to 63.7F here now, after reaching only 74.2F, dang; but it sure dried out, DP is 39.5F, humidity only 41% .

[WeatherHost]

Hey weathernerds, another question.....


It FINALLY quit raining, at least for a few days.  Sun will be returning later today or tomorrow.  In the mean time, high winds.  Ground is beyond saturated to the point of squishy, like a sopping wet sponge left in the bottom of the sink with the faucet dripping.

I'm on top of a gravel hill and I can usually see water running down the mole hole trails for a few days after a normal heavy rain.

We all know Sun helps to dry soil.  But surface winds also help dry soil, correct?   So between drainage, Sun and wind, I might be able to walk around my yard without sinking in some time soon?  Maybe by .... oh ....  June?

[ocala]

In case anyone missed the 8-14 day outlook just updated today this is for Feb.14-24. Enjoy Florida...
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

You aren't kidding.
87 yesterday.
So far this February the mean temp is 65.6. Almost 10 degrees warmer then January.
Flipped the calendar and it changed to summer.

You're getting up there with DanS for warm temperatures in the winter.  Am I correct that temps in the 80s are unusual for FL in Feb?

Hey Gregg
That mean temp mentioned above is now 67.3. A very warm month so far.
80's are common in February but they are usually lower 80's and it usually just a few days. This warm spell has been different. Almost 89 yesterday at 88.7. Getting daily notices from the Jacksonville office about records being tied or surpassed for temp and dew point.
But really the mid portion of February is the start of our spring. Most trees are flowering and have the spring green leaves already. A cold front is due tonight that will get us back to the 70's/50's.
Hurricane season starts in just over 3 months.

[SlowModem]

It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today. 

From last Saturday the 16th until this morning at 7:00 am, I had reported 6.07 in. rain to CoCoRaHS.  From 7:00 am this morning until now (7:46 pm) I have recorded 2.37 in. rain for a grand total (so far) of 8.44 in. rain.  There is widespread flooding, landslides and trees falling everywhere.  They are predicting a tornado watch (tornado not likely but high winds are expected) later and more rain as the front approaches.

Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and warm.  It will be interesting to see what the rain total is after all is said and done.

I hate to think of what it would be like if it was snow.  I'm really glad it's not snow.

So from Saturday the 16th until this morning ended up being 9.33 inches of rain.  So far in February, there's been 12.7 in.  That's' a whole lot of water.

[ocala]

It's a strange day.  The temperature has held around 36F all day.  This afternoon and into tonight (It's still doing it at 10:12 pm EST), there has been intense streak lightening and long, rolling thunder.  I'm not used to experiencing this at 36F.  We even had a little sleet this afternoon.

This is just crazy, mixed up weather today. 

From last Saturday the 16th until this morning at 7:00 am, I had reported 6.07 in. rain to CoCoRaHS.  From 7:00 am this morning until now (7:46 pm) I have recorded 2.37 in. rain for a grand total (so far) of 8.44 in. rain.  There is widespread flooding, landslides and trees falling everywhere.  They are predicting a tornado watch (tornado not likely but high winds are expected) later and more rain as the front approaches.

Tomorrow is expected to be sunny and warm.  It will be interesting to see what the rain total is after all is said and done.

I hate to think of what it would be like if it was snow.  I'm really glad it's not snow.

So from Saturday the 16th until this morning ended up being 9.33 inches of rain.  So far in February, there's been 12.7 in.  That's' a whole lot of water.

Rivers must be raging.
My brother lives a little SW of you in Scottsboro,AL. He also said it's been crazy wet.

[WeatherHost]

That's' a whole lot of water.

Rivers must be raging.

Yeah, see the Math Question thread.

[ValentineWeather]

Starting to hear complaints from Nebraskan's, the relentless cold and snow is getting old. We may be getting down into the -25° (-32C)  range even into March.  Tomorrow will struggle to get above 0°f.

Snapshot of Euro on March 5th.
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[BKS97]

Strong northwest winds are creating whiteout conditions today in open areas across Minnesota. There is a lot of snow on the ground to blow around (more than 2 feet in many places).  Many roads are closed, and the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that dozens of people have had to be rescued from stranded vehicles.

Temperatures have been dropping all day, and tonight will dip to about -20 in our area, the start of a cold week ahead.

Appropriately, the Star Tribune also has a story today about a cold weather auto testing facility in Baudette, up on the Canadian border.  Major car manufacturers send their vehicles up there to be tested in winter conditions.  This will be another good week for that!

[WeatherHost]

I need an idea of current snow depths anywhere north of Missouri that will flow into the Mississippi once it begins to melt.

[BKS97]

I need an idea of current snow depths anywhere north of Missouri that will flow into the Mississippi once it begins to melt.

Residents along the Red River of the North separating Minnesota and North Dakota also are closely monitoring the spring flood potential there.

https://www.weather.gov/fgf/weatherstory

[chief-david]

http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/Snow-Depth-US.htm

I am sure my kid will be sand bagging in Fargo when classes are cancelled.

[WeatherHost]

It's gonna get real REAL if this stuff doesn't go down before that stuff starts to get past St. Louis.

[floodcaster]

I need an idea of current snow depths anywhere north of Missouri that will flow into the Mississippi once it begins to melt.

What you need to monitor is the snow water equivalent(SWE) values. For the latest Spring flood outlook for the upper Miss basin see:
https://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_ROF_NFP_SpringHydroOutlook
Note: this was issued before winter storm system that is affecting the midwest this weekend. Their next update will be issued 3/7. In the meantime, keep up with the latest SWE values from NOHRSC at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/   (the interactive maps menu option lets you zoom in for more detail).
Also CoCoRaHS maps provide snow depth and SWE data.

[WeatherHost]

UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE
Overall, the flood risk for this drainage area is above to much above normal.

The fall started out on the mild side, with above normal temperatures seen across the Upper Mississippi River basin. But, a pattern shift brought cooler than normal temperatures for November. Another pattern shift resulted in warmer than normal temperatures through December and into early January, with readings 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The region went into the deep freeze after mid January with a lengthy cold outbreak and temperatures plunging into the 20s and 30s below zero. This cold trend has continued so far through February. Some areas have seen temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal with most areas reporting at least 10 degrees below normal. Many records were either tied or broken January 30 through February 1. Of note, parts of northwestern Minnesota saw 24 consecutive hours at or below minus 25 degrees.

The fall was generally wet across the drainage. September rainfall was 200 to 300 percent of normal from Iowa and southern Minnesota, into southern Wisconsin, but it was a little below normal for central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. The wet trend continued into October for areas from northern Missouri and eastern Iowa, up into Wisconsin, with 2 to 3 times the normal amount. November and December saw near normal precipitation. January precipitation was below normal across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, but it was much wetter, from northern Missouri through the northern half of Illinois, and the southern half of Wisconsin where about twice the normal amount was recorded. So far in February, precipitation has been way above the norm...as much as 3 to 4 times the usual amount for Minnesota and Wisconsin, and 2 to 3 times from Iowa into Illinois and Indiana.

Snowfall across southern Iowa, the northern half of Missouri, and western and northern Illinois has been much above normal so far this winter. And for Minnesota into Wisconsin, February has seen the highest amount of snowfall on record. As of February 20th, snowfall has been 2 to 3 times the typical amount for the winter season. Current snow cover is highest in an area from North Dakota, through Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Depths of 1 to 2 feet are common. Further south, snow is also more widespread than in a typical year, with 1 to 4 inches seen all the way down into southern Missouri and Illinois. Snow depth between 6 and 12 inches is common from Iowa into northern Illinois.

Water equivalent in the snow in the northern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin are near 6 inches. Liquid equivalent of 3 to 6 inches is prevalent over a widespread area from North Dakota and Minnesota over to Wisconsin. Water amounts of 1 to 2 inches extend from Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Water in the snow cover is generally less than an inch from Missouri across most of Illinois and Indiana. Overall, this amount of snow water equivalent seen across the region is well above normal.

Not looking good at all.

[WeatherHost]

A few of the NWS pages haven't been loading all that well in the last day or so.

[chief-david]

Many roads in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin still closed.

[chief-david]

https://twitter.com/blaisekellerr/status/1100065677682057216?

[Bunty]

Winter weather getting crazy for this time of year in Oklahoma. KFOR-4, OKC Chief Meteorologist Mike Morgan said the March 1-5 period will be coldest since 1960. Low may get down to the single digits for the coldest this winter. Many Oklahomans think the entire winter has sucked for how persistent the Arctic blasts has been.  We can't get 60s to last any longer than a day without another Arctic blast wiping them out.  At least no record lows have been set this winter, so far.  We'll see next week, though.  Fortunately, nothing major in the forecasts for freezing precipitation. But it doesn't take much icy weather, like freezing rain,  to make the roads slick and dangerous.    Arctic front no. 1 past through this morning.

Arctic front no. 1 temps at 12:30 PM 2/26/2019:

[ValentineWeather]

Not a lot of MSM coverage how cold it's been.

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[chief-david]

Not sorry LA.
Father in Law in Palm Spring says it was cool there too. May not have been 80 this winter.