Topic: Fall/Winter '19/'20

[chief-david]

47F today..
NWS said at 3000 feet it would be 74 F..

WOW!!

Anyway to work that warmer air aloft down to the ground? 

That would have been awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!
Even this would not have been enough..Bigassfans.com

[Bunty]

Oklahoma City is looking to have it's 2nd warmest Christmas Eve ever if 71 high holds up.  The warmest ever is 86 set in 1955.

[ValentineWeather]

2 days of continuous 45 mph winds and 6" of snowfall. 

My view from the west camera. 
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And looking from street side.
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[DRoberts]

 Impressive snow/drifts.

 We had the liquid form, 1.52" overnight on Friday and then 2" snow on Saturday night. Really nice moisture for this place in December.

[CW2274]

We had the liquid form, 1.52" overnight on Friday

Australia could sure use some of that...and then some.

https://www.commondreams.org/sites/default/files/headlines/aus.fires_.png

[ValentineWeather]

Impressive snow/drifts.

 We had the liquid form, 1.52" overnight on Friday and then 2" snow on Saturday night. Really nice moisture for this place in December.

Yes really is. Winter is usually dry across the plains.

[Bunty]

December in Oklahoma City was dryer and warmer than usual.  2019 precip amount was well above average.

[ValentineWeather]

The December summary very different from the year came in Above normal with a Mean temperature (27.5°), or (+3.7°) above normal and warmest since at least station started 2014, the average high was (39), low (17). Precipitation (.87" ) was (+.50") above normal.
Snowfall 9". Monthly extremes: high (60), low (3), with 31 days freezing or below and 0 days below zero, also a first for December.

[DRoberts]

Precipitation for December KS-PL-6
1.85" received
  .43" normal avrg

Average D, J, F monthly precipitation total 1.29". So we have already exceeded our normal winter precipitation by .56".

High temperature for the month 62F, low 10F.

Max wind gust 42mph.

[gwwilk]

Precipitation for December 2019 was 2.6" of rain (no snow) with an average here of 1.49" since 2007.  2.52" of that fell December 27-28.

[Bunty]

Oklahoma City meteorologist Aaron Tuttle sees big Arctic air mass outbreak coming next week, bringing lows to single digits in Oklahoma:  https://aarontuttleweather.com/2020/01/06/wild-weather-week-ahead/?fbclid=IwAR2Al8JTqyDg67WjhAPmevL3qAWiVmYbQMau0-luFiXZXFzmpy9oAN8EtkE

[ValentineWeather]

We have a very strong cold polar vortex this year keeping the cold air around the pole. Sounds like its getting a little wobble in it which will bring the cold air south at times.

[chief-david]

A dip here this week. low of 0 Wednesday and Friday nights with a bit of a roller coaster in between.

[DRoberts]

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Our Hastings NWS is pretty good about looking ahead. This is from 3 January.

(I originally had placed this in another thread and hope I did not breach forum etiquette in doing so.)

[ValentineWeather]

Our balmy January is ending  The Canadian model GDPS latest run 00z is the coldest next Thursday morning. Here is the national look.
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[Bunty]

 I wonder how much of Oklahoma will be below zero on Friday morning.  Hopefully, it's the most out there model.

[Bunty]

The developing weather situation has become more definite to the NWS, so a couple of storm watches have been issued for Oklahoma starting Friday. One is for northern Oklahoma with a winter storm watch, which includes Stillwater. Total snow accumulations up to 4 inches and ice
accumulations of a light glaze possible. Higher snow totals possible near the Kansas border.

The other one for eastern and southeastern Oklahoma with a flash flood watch, which includes Tulsa. NWS says residents of the area should expect widespread, heavy rainfall in the 2 to 4 inch range, with locally heavier amounts possible.  The storms will “train” north to south, meteorologists say, meaning they'll continue to develop and pour rain repeatedly over the same areas.  Oklahoma City is not affected by either watch, so far.  It will be interesting to see how heavy the snow gets in states to the north and northeast.

Oklahoma City's low of 52 on Thursday morning is a record high low.

[Bunty]

Weather developing crazier.  Stillwater may get as much as 7.1" of snow by Sunday. For now there is a tornado watch out until 6pm Friday.  It covers the eastern half of Oklahoma.  Fortunately, it's believed that the likelihood for tornadoes and flash flooding will peak out in southeast Oklahoma.  Highs are expected to bounce back to near 60 as soon as Monday.  What a roller coaster ride for the weather even for winter.

[Bunty]

Tornado watch canceled here but a winter storm advisory just issued.  It covers better than the western half of Oklahoma:

Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
1 to 3 inches and a glaze of ice. Higher snowfall amounts are
possible in and around Ponca City and Stillwater.
* WHERE...Portions of northern Oklahoma.
* WHEN...Until noon CST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts behind a cold front will gusts over
40 mph tonight.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slick roads
and areas of blowing snow.

[Bunty]

It snowed around an inch in Stillwater Saturday morning  as pictured well under projected models.  Things started out before dawn as a glaze of ice followed by a layer of snow made easier to drive on.  It later turned to slush, which as of shortly after noon had mostly evaporated off.   It snowed more in counties to the north.

As was done last year the head of Stillwater Emergency Management, Ron Hill, made an hour and a half plus live Facebook video tour of the the major streets of stillwater  starting out when the icing of Highway 177 south of town began.  A couple of interesting points:  24:00-  A stop at Stillwater Regional Airport to see the new spray equipment to deice the runway.  The flight to Dallas-Ft. Worth was made good to go.  1:09 - recap and drive through Hall of Fame Ave. on OSU's north side.  https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/579017102830615/

[Bunty]

At least the TV weather people were right in that biggest rain amounts would be in southeast Oklahoma.

[Bunty]

Okay, no ice or snow with the latest system for my area, unlike the previous one.  I'll take it.  Projected rain amount may be around an inch.

[Bunty]

Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

[ValentineWeather]

Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.

[DRoberts]

Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.

Just how closely are NWS forecasters held to these models? When they vary in their analysis, how much do they have to justify? (Question I have wanted to ask NWS but did not want to step over a line.)