General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts

2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be among most active on record

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hofpwx:
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-researchers-release-stunning-prediction-for-2024-season

hofpwx:
More details with fewer ads.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/04/forecasters-predict-an-extremely-active-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/
The forecast is the most aggressive one ever issued in the 30 years that the CSU team has been issuing April forecasts. If the numbers verify, the number of named storms would rank as the third-highest on record; the number of hurricanes, the fifth-highest; the number of major hurricanes, the ninth-highest; and the ACE index, the ninth-highest. The 2024 forecast falls just short of predicting a hyperactive season, defined as having an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of at least 214 (175% above average). Only seven seasons since records began in 1851 have met this definition: 1933 (ACE of 259), 2005 (ACE of 245), 1893 (ACE of 231), 1926 (ACE of 230), 1995 (ACE of 227), 2004 (ACE of 227), and 2017 (ACE of 225).
The CSU outlook predicts much higher odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. than usual: 62% (long-term average: 43%). It gives a 34% chance for a major hurricane to hit the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 21%), and a 42% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 27%). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 66% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 47%).

and

A caveat: April hurricane season forecasts have little or no ‘skill’
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no “skill,” or even negative skill, when computed using the Mean Square Skill Score (Figure 2). This does not mean a particular April forecast will be incorrect — just that, on average, a forecast simply using climatology would do as well or better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called spring predictability barrier. In April, the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions will be in place for the coming hurricane season. However, spring forecast confidence is notably higher when El Niño is transitioning to La Niña, as is now predicted for this spring.

hofpwx:
I should have put this thread on the correct forum - sorry, I thought I was.


Could a moderator move it for me, please? Apologies!

CW2274:
Wow. This is CSU's wheelhouse too. They have a pretty good batting average IIRC.

hofpwx:

--- Quote from: CW2274 on May 03, 2024, 06:03:18 PM ---Wow. This is CSU's wheelhouse too. They have a pretty good batting average IIRC.

--- End quote ---


The actual CSU press release


https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf


The first column in the Fox table is the CSU forecast.

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