Author Topic: Am I the only one?  (Read 4247 times)

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Offline LunaEros

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Am I the only one?
« on: September 27, 2016, 06:28:12 PM »
Am I the only one that gets pissed off at Wundergrounds forecasts?
I'm in Hickory, NC and they have a nasty habit of promising a good chance of rain or other inclement weather in their forecasts and the closer it gets to the forecasted time the less chance they show until it's nothing and it's gone or pushed farther down the line.
Are they not taking heat island effects into account or some other factor?

I'm beginning to feel like Stewie from Family guy when he lent money to the family dog Brian.
Stewie "I'm gettin really tired of you ducking me man! [Whack!]"

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2016, 06:34:46 PM »
Welcome. Heat island effects?

Offline LunaEros

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2016, 06:36:02 PM »
The heat given off by cities from large areas of pavement and the like.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2016, 06:40:19 PM »
The heat given off by cities from large areas of pavement and the like.
Yes, I know what it is, but how does that apply to Hickory, NC? You need a major metropolitan area for that to be of any consequence.

Offline LunaEros

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2016, 06:44:05 PM »
How big does it have to be? Hickory's not exactly small it's more like midsize.
What else could it be. Most of the time when the radar show big areas of rain coming in it starts dissipating right about where it starts hitting the city.

Offline Jáchym

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2016, 06:45:40 PM »
It could of course be the heat island effect, but this depends on many different things as well such as the terrain, prevailing local wind patterns etc.

Offline LunaEros

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2016, 06:46:10 PM »
But my question is more why Wunderground predicts so much rain but the closer you get to it that prediction disappears or gets pushed back.
Weather forecasters used to have a much better prediction rate for precipitation than they seem to now. At least in Florida they did.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2016, 06:48:50 PM by LunaEros »

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2016, 06:47:20 PM »
How big does it have to be? Hickory's not exactly small it's more like midsize.
What else could it be. Most of the time when the radar show big areas of rain coming in it starts dissipating right about where it starts hitting the city.
Talking cities in the millions. What else could it be? Bad forecasting, coincidence, other, ect.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2016, 06:48:57 PM »
But my question is more why Wunderground predicts so much rain but the closer you get to it that prediction disappears or gets pushed back.
I never use WU, speaks for itself. I stick with the NWS, and/or myself.

Offline gwwilk

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2016, 06:49:28 PM »
It may be the database.  The same thing happens quite often here (Lincoln, NE) with my WXSIM forecasts.  Admittedly, this isn't quite the same thing...
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Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2016, 06:56:48 PM »
It could of course be the heat island effect, but this depends on many different things as well such as the terrain, prevailing local wind patterns etc.
I would find it very difficult to believe a "city" of 40,000 people have to deal with heat island effect. That part of the country is very "green" to boot.

Offline Jáchym

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2016, 07:43:02 PM »
Yes I agree with that, I would also think it is more to do with something else. I live in a city of 400k people and we have the HIE, but not very strong, much weaker than in Prague (1.3M). But it also depends on the city itself - the main surface type, green density etc. But 40k is really small. I would think it has to do more with something like the surrounding terrain etc.

Offline WheatonRon

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2016, 08:22:06 PM »
Am I the only one that gets pissed off at Wundergrounds forecasts?
I'm in Hickory, NC and they have a nasty habit of promising a good chance of rain or other inclement weather in their forecasts and the closer it gets to the forecasted time the less chance they show until it's nothing and it's gone or pushed farther down the line.
Are they not taking heat island effects into account or some other factor?

I'm beginning to feel like Stewie from Family guy when he lent money to the family dog Brian.
Stewie "I'm gettin really tired of you ducking me man! [Whack!]"

I pay no attention to WU forecasts. They are horribly unreliable or wrong, particularly estimating rainfall, that I never look at them. If my PWS gold star is removed, I might get mad at WU, but not their forecasts--they are worthless--more or less on the plain as the gold star "status."
Davis VP2 with SHT31 (3 complete VP2 systems—2 with a daytime fan and 1 that has a 24 hour fan); CWOP--CW5020, FW3075 and FW4350; WU--KILWHEAT17, KILWHEAT36 and KILWHEAT39; WeatherCloud.net; CoCoRaHS--IL-DP-132; and Weatherlink 2.0

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2016, 08:28:47 PM »
I would think it has to do more with something like the surrounding terrain etc.
Being downstream of of a moisture starved system that crosses higher terrain can indeed "wring it out" due to orographic lift, to where downstream gets basically nothing. In that part of the country, I see that as highly unlikely. So again, I see this as plain ole bad data being served up.

Offline sundevil01010101

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2016, 08:33:36 PM »
You should try living in AZ, every rain prediction in my particular area is a joke... like 95% of the time they are wrong...
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Offline hankster

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2016, 08:38:16 PM »
One thing I see it that you are not that far away from the Atlantic to the east and you have mountains on the west. Both of those can have huge effects on the weather. Much can depend on the sea breeze and air coming down the mountains.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2016, 09:10:15 PM »
You should try living in AZ, every rain prediction in my particular area is a joke... like 95% of the time they are wrong...
Convection is basically our only source of rain here during the summer months, unlike the other huge percent of the country that gets a true frontal passage. Gauging who gets rain here is a hellofalot more difficult than most of the rest of the country. In the winter here, forecasting rain is more of a predictable thing due to us occasionally getting true frontal passages that we never see in the warmer months.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2016, 09:12:51 PM »
One thing I see it that you are not that far away from the Atlantic to the east and you have mountains on the west. Both of those can have huge effects on the weather. Much can depend on the sea breeze and air coming down the mountains.
Sea breeze is only effectual for several miles, not several hundred miles.

Offline cospringswx

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2016, 10:51:28 PM »
But my question is more why Wunderground predicts so much rain but the closer you get to it that prediction disappears or gets pushed back.
I never use WU, speaks for itself. I stick with the NWS, and/or myself.

+1. Best source for weather is the NWS.

AccuWeather isn't much better.

Taking all of that into consideration where I live on the Front Range of the Rockies is hard to predict.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2016, 10:54:03 PM by cospringswx »




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Offline ocala

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2016, 05:41:52 AM »
This is not to to disrespect any mets out there but the problem is there isn't enough data. They are making forecasts based on model data and local knowledge. That isn't enough so they are left with making an educated guess as to how much of a chance there is for rain, and most times it's wrong.
Twice I have seen a 100% chance of rain for my area and we didn't get a drop. One of those times there wasn't any rain for 50 miles. Another time they were so sure of a wide spread tornado event most of the business's closed early to send people home. Nothing happened.
Unless we have airborne nano sensors every 1000ft and spaced out a half mile apart mets don't truly know whats going on up there. That's why a rain forecast is just a best guess.
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2016, 07:45:38 AM »
And always will be

Offline gwwilk

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2016, 08:02:25 AM »
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline WheatonRon

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2016, 09:21:25 AM »
This is not to to disrespect any mets out there but the problem is there isn't enough data. They are making forecasts based on model data and local knowledge. That isn't enough so they are left with making an educated guess as to how much of a chance there is for rain, and most times it's wrong.
Twice I have seen a 100% chance of rain for my area and we didn't get a drop. One of those times there wasn't any rain for 50 miles. Another time they were so sure of a wide spread tornado event most of the business's closed early to send people home. Nothing happened.
Unless we have airborne nano sensors every 1000ft and spaced out a half mile apart mets don't truly know whats going on up there. That's why a rain forecast is just a best guess.
So what we need is a VP2 every 1000'! Davis will be thrilled and may give them the push to release a VP3!
Davis VP2 with SHT31 (3 complete VP2 systems—2 with a daytime fan and 1 that has a 24 hour fan); CWOP--CW5020, FW3075 and FW4350; WU--KILWHEAT17, KILWHEAT36 and KILWHEAT39; WeatherCloud.net; CoCoRaHS--IL-DP-132; and Weatherlink 2.0

Offline sundevil01010101

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2016, 10:13:30 AM »
You should try living in AZ, every rain prediction in my particular area is a joke... like 95% of the time they are wrong...
Convection is basically our only source of rain here during the summer months, unlike the other huge percent of the country that gets a true frontal passage. Gauging who gets rain here is a hellofalot more difficult than most of the rest of the country. In the winter here, forecasting rain is more of a predictable thing due to us occasionally getting true frontal passages that we never see in the warmer months.

Oh I well realize that since I've been sitting on one side of an intersection before watching it rain across the street, localized is an under exaggeration.

I'm just bitter because I apparently live in the driest local area in the metro Phoenix area....
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Offline sundevil01010101

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Re: Am I the only one?
« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2016, 10:15:26 AM »

So what we need is a VP2 every 1000'! Davis will be thrilled and may give them the push to release a VP3!

I like it! 
Visit https://www.surpriseazweather.com/ !!!
Bucket List - 1,000,000 visitors  :twisted: Lol...

 

anything