Topic: Biden on weather

[sky_watcher]

Sorry, This post didn't seem to make any sense.

You're correct on all the contexts, sir.  My original intent was to pray for all to stop living in fear and trust the holy spirit.

There are some nut cases where I live that are trying to convince people that the Holy Spirit will protect them from COVID. Sadly a few people believed this nonsense and have died in their homes from COVID because they would not not accept medical assistance when they caught the disease badly. The quotes are so often misused that I was unsure what you were wanting to convey. I suggest that if you had dispensed with the quotes, your intent may have been clearer.

Anyway, thanks for your reply and have a nice day.

[Mattk]

@ Mattk
so the falling temperatures mentioned was way back in the 1940s ?
your whole argument post does not make any sense, unless you are cherry picking data?

One needs to go way way way back before that to have a general representation of the actual earths cooling and warming but stuffs the current excuse that the climate is man made. Historical data fails the cherry pickers of today who are only thinking in their own life time, one has to look at the BIG picture and many of those pushing climate change have blurred vision when it comes to the past and reality   

[SnowHiker]

but you are more likely to get those complications from the actual virus than from the vaccine
similar for blood clots: the contraceptive pill has more chance of side affects than the vaccine, yet its widely used and trusted

Speaking about things not making a whole lot of sense:

No one is demanding that everyone take contraceptive pills, at least not yet.  (I guess in some people's definition of "science" anyone can be a "birthing person".)

So taking contraceptive pills is a choice, people decide whether the benefits are worth the risk.  Blood clots are a side effect of the pill.  More people are not being hospitalized for not taking the pill. 

So how does any of this fit with your argument that taking the vaccine is safer than not taking it when studies would seem to show otherwise, as least for certain people?
   

[sky_watcher]

One needs to go way way way back before that to have a general representation of the actual earths cooling and warming but stuffs the current excuse that the climate is man made. Historical data fails the cherry pickers of today who are only thinking in their own life time, one has to look at the BIG picture and many of those pushing climate change have blurred vision when it comes to the past and reality

I don't follow you claim about past changes. To be sure, there have been past changes (pre-industrialisation). I don't anyone seriously disputes that the Earth has warmed and cooled - a lot of work has been done in this area.

Experiments easily show that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that concentrations can be mapped to increases in temperature. It is possible to get information about previous CO2 levels from the previous time periods (pre-industralisation) that can be correlated to the temperatures of the time.

So, the question is whether there is evidence that the past temperatures did not correlate to the then CO2 levels, taking into account the other events of the time like orbital variations, etc. If you can show that, then arguing past weather explains the current variations will have some merit. If you know of that evidence could you point it out?

The other argument that would clearly be valid is to show that the the CO2 being generated by our civilisation is not the major contributor to the current rising CO2 levels. That is, if there was some sort of natural release of stored carbon due to emissions, perhaps caused volcanic activity, or some sort of chemical process releasing stored carbon from the upper crust.

I suspect this is unlikely as it is fairly easy to measure the CO2 in the atmosphere and work out the CO2 that coming from industrlisation through burning coal, deforestation, etc. It is also possible to work out how much carbon get sequestered by natural processes. To be fair, if someone can show some major errors in those calculations, then CO2 could be coming from somewhere else, but I have seen no credible evidence that this is case.

Since the increase in atmospheric CO2 can be correlated to the growth of industrialisation, I suspect that showing major errors will be a hard ask, but if you have seen evidence that it cannot be correlated, it would be interesting to see.

Admission: I tend to immediately discount global conspiracies and global cherry picking of data theories unless presented with really solid evidence, because the conclusions under discussion are accepted even by countries that hate each other - Countries that would like nothing better than to embarrass their opponents by showing that their enemies were faking data or universally cherry-picking. The desire to "out" the enemy would be irresistible especially of you don't get a rat's about what the other country thought.

[CW2274]

After we spend our ka-trillions trying to "fix" this in our own country, how about we hold these folks feet to the "fire". Obviously this is from as liberal as an institution can be as well.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree

[sky_watcher]

After we spend our ka-trillions trying to "fix" this in our own country, how about we hold these folks feet to the "fire". Obviously this is from as liberal as an institution can be as well.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree

Europe is, in fact, going down that road, by penalising high carbon footprint products - even on their own goods so it should not run foul of WTO for protectionism.

However, even ignoring the climate issues for the moment, the shift to a low carbon economy will have long term economic benefits for those that embrace it.

South Australia has reached a point already where sometimes it is (briefly) able to  run the whole daytime state load from renewable energy. It is also to the point where often the cheapest power of the day is in the middle of the day when it used to be the most expensive due to industry consumption. This is mainly due to the uptake of home solar. Except in winter, I often get a negative power bill .

There is a rush of investment in large batteries to soak up the power when there is an excess of renewable energy and later feed it back when required (rainy days, night,etc). The advantage is that unlike coal fired plants, batteries can handle just about instantaneous load changes (which saves BIG money in the power generation sector) - even better than gas plants that are touted as being far more responsive than the sluggard coal stations. The power companies are strenuously resisting community batteries, because they know that this will lower costs to the consumer and impact their sales even more.

Fossil fuel power stations are being depreciated at an accelerated rate, because it looks like they will lose economic viability before they reach their designed End Of Life. This increased depreciation rate raises the cost of their power even more, making them less competitive.

For the companies investing heavily is renewable energy, there is a component of social conscience, but mostly they are moving to a renewable energy future because it is cheaper in the long run.

It ain't all bad being a bit green, if you want to make money.

[Mattk]

Well South Australia has adopted a net zero emissions by 2050 BUT they did achieve their zero emissions target well before that  When their entire renewable network failed as did their reliance on the INcoming feeders from the other states which blacked out the entire State, wasn't a good look for renewables, and even a worse look for incompetent management   

[weather34]

So how does any of this fit with your argument that taking the vaccine is safer than not taking it when studies would seem to show otherwise, as least for certain people?
 

define certain people ? a minority ? those with a critical underlying condition  ?

anti vaxxers only home in the smaller percentage of those that have had complications after being vaccinated they never look at the larger percentage that have not..

90% of hospitalized patients due to covid here in turkey are unvaccinated the other 10% is a mixture of single dose , 2 dose with an underlying condition that has been diagnosed prior to vaccination.
does the 90% not mean anything or are modern day skeptics homing in on the 10% ..

[Mattk]

The reality with Covid vaccines is at best 95%, meaning 5 out of every 100 could come to grief but of course 100% of people think they are in that 95% but the maths just don't add up, nothing is perfect in this regard 

[weather34]

The reality with Covid vaccines is at best 95%, meaning 5 out of every 100 could come to grief but of course 100% of people think they are in that 95% but the maths just don't add up, nothing is perfect in this regard

ill take the 95% , better figure than i was quoted for an operation on my leg a few years ago 80% success rate i wouldnt have any long term complications. today i walk,run,hike and sleep without pain ..

[SnowHiker]

define certain people ? a minority ? those with a critical underlying condition  ?

anti vaxxers only home in the smaller percentage of those that have had complications after being vaccinated they never look at the larger percentage that have not..

90% of hospitalized patients due to covid here in turkey are unvaccinated the other 10% is a mixture of single dose , 2 dose with an underlying condition that has been diagnosed prior to vaccination.
does the 90% not mean anything or are modern day skeptics homing in on the 10% ..

It's the reference to teenage boys I brought up.  Did you follow the conversations or just look for bits you could attack?

Do you believe that teen boys who are reportedly six times more likely to suffer heart problems from the vaccine than to be hospitalized with the virus should be allowed to go to the hospital and take up your resources?  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/09/teenage-boys-risk-vaccines-covid/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1631205198

Do you not believe that there may be circumstances in which it may actually be wise not to get the vaccine, and that just maybe all the data isn't in yet?  And if there are indications of some unintended consequences, that maybe there are others yet to be discovered and verified?

Like, perhaps teenage boys, and those who have had the virus.  I know in the mind of many, vaccines are good for everyone regardless, and some claim they're even better than and/or boost natural immunity.  Others believe it's actually risky for those with natural immunity to receive a vaccine, and I know some who have had the virus and suffered some ill, but so far not life-threatening, effects from subsequently getting the vaccine.  Unfortunately the evidence seems to be lacking or contradictory and people are believing what they want to believe or are being conditioned to believe, or just falling for peer pressure.

I also get a little tired of the idea that you are either all for everyone being mandated to get vaccines regardless of circumstances, or you are an "anti-vaxxer", "modern day skeptic", "conspiracy theorist" and, of course, intellectually and morally inferior than those who believe everyone should be forced to get vaccines for their own good.

That's part of the problem, we can't even discuss the matter because you are either completely for vaccines, or you are completely against them, there's no middle ground, if you even mention evidence that indicates maybe someone shouldn't get the vaccine you're dangerous.  We should just accept what we're told and get the vaccine.

The fact that I've been talking mainly about those with natural immunity, which I'm sure I have, and a specific group like teenage boys (though I question young people in general), seems to escape everyone somehow.  In any case, I do resent those who attempt to order me to get a vaccine I question the value of at this time.

So 90% hospitalized in Turkey are unvaccinated.  Well, good, so you're safe if you're vaccinated, and apparently the unvaccinted aren't such a threat to you.  Maybe by being hospitalized they'll learn their lesson.

[weather34]

pardon im not attacking you just merely asking a question.. ? dont see everything as an attack just merely asking a question , end of the day how you determine an attack on you may be prompts another question.

sorry no offense meant..but in short im not complaining about unvaccinated are a threat to me thats your perception im just merely highlighting 90% of covid hospitalized patients here in turkey are unvaccinated .. doesn’t necessarily mean this is the case in other parts of the world which I cant comment on..

dont worry there are similar voices here that home in on the 10% but its a very small minority that try to bring political opinions  into the debate.. 

[SnowHiker]

No problem.

It just seems certain points I make somehow keep getting missed, like the fact that I think your question would have been answered if you had read the complete context.  But I understand that gets harder to do the longer the thread gets, so maybe I just need to keep repeating myself.

It is easy to lump people together also.

[weather34]

No problem.

It just seems certain points I make somehow keep getting missed, like the fact that I think your question would have been answered if you had read the complete context.  But I understand that gets harder to do the longer the thread gets, so maybe I just need to keep repeating myself.

It is easy to lump people together also.

no problem , im human just has guilty has anyone else when it comes to digesting long written forum posts take the bits i remember.. but please dont see what i rhetoric about as an attack on any individual here just merely engaging we all agree to disagree or vice versa ..

so on a lighter humorous note “stop complaining your nose is too big to wear a mask I have to wear underpants “

have a good weekend..brian

[sky_watcher]

Well South Australia has adopted a net zero emissions by 2050 BUT they did achieve their zero emissions target well before that  When their entire renewable network failed as did their reliance on the INcoming feeders from the other states which blacked out the entire State, wasn't a good look for renewables, and even a worse look for incompetent management   

What actually happened. Five years ago, storms bend multiple high voltage transmission towers to the ground and disrupting the transmission network. The wind generators trip as a result of incorrect setup by the operators, not failure of the equipment. This loss caused a cascading fault that caused the interconnect to carry a large amount of power from neighbouring state Victoria. The sudden increase in power on the Interconnector causes it to do a cautionary trip, putting the load onto the operating thermal generators which shutdown with an overload, causing most of the state to go black.

The restoration strategy was to bring on two additional thermal power stations to allow a restart. However, both of those generators could not be brought into service due to equipment failures. This resulted in the restart occurring using the interconnector that had previously tripped because of the large step increase in load.

While it wasn't a good look for the wind farm operator, renewable generation itself (which include both solar and wind) was not found to be deficient, since incorrect setup can occur independent of the equipment being set up. The recommendations of the study into the failure had strong focus on being more prepared for adverse weather conditions and improving communications. The operator of the wind farms was given a kick up the backside for being non-compliant in procedures and setup.

Plenty of lessons to be learnt, but one of them isn't that renewables are inherently unstable or unreliable, unless they are set up incorrectly, which can equally be said of any item of equipment.

For a laugh and in the spirit of Mattk's theme, one could however question the suitability of thermal generators as they were the only items that had actual equipment failures, apart for the infrastructure that was damaged by the storms. 

[Mattk]

The hypocrisy of the South Oz debacle was making a grand statement re being totally renewable and shutting down their entire thermal power station infrastructure and then expecting those same closed stations to somehow magically fire up again, like really, what were they thinking, of course they were not going to fire up.

But to totally close down all their thermal power infrastructure, make a grand statement re solar and wind while actually relying on base load thermal power from other States is rather hypocritical and incompetent.  The key learning and fact was all the lights went out due to incompetence.

But South OZ is also interesting in that minimum demand is now the middle of the day instead the middle of the night with power authorities having the capabilities to "trip" household panels to enforce power usage (buy) from the grid to maintain the integrity of the network.   

[sky_watcher]

The hypocrisy of the South Oz debacle was making a grand statement re being totally renewable and shutting down their entire thermal power station infrastructure and then expecting those same closed stations to somehow magically fire up again, like really, what were they thinking, of course they were not going to fire up.

But to totally close down all their thermal power infrastructure, make a grand statement re solar and wind while actually relying on base load thermal power from other States is rather hypocritical and incompetent.  The key learning and fact was all the lights went out due to incompetence.

But South OZ is also interesting in that minimum demand is now the middle of the day instead the middle of the night with power authorities having the capabilities to "trip" household panels to enforce power usage (buy) from the grid to maintain the integrity of the network.

OMG! A valiant second attempt, but doomed to failure for the same reason.

What actually happened, rather than what you wanted to have happened to suit your story.

They didn't shutdown their "entire thermal power station infrastructure" - the stations just tripped their breakers. You can't just "shut down" coal fired stations at the drop of a hat (or breaker).

The units that failed WEREN'T the ones that were supplying load at the time of the failure. They were ADDITIONAL units that can be brought on-line to assist supplying the load. There are stations around the state that are designed to do emergency supply in the case of failure and are diesel or gas because it takes days to ramp coal fired stations.

True about the distribution companies having the power to curtail the rooftop solar production if required.  It also within the power of the regulator to curtail any generation plant from providing power to the grid if supply is outstripping demand. This happens all the time.

The reason there are so many battery installation on the go is that they can be charged when power is cheap and injected into the grid just about instantly when required. This has already been shown to save millions. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-02/tesla-battery-expanded-as-sa-energy-minister-lauds-benefits/12622382

I won't bother telling you what actually happened anymore, because it seems that your desired narrative supersedes having to rely on the inconvenience of what actually happened.

[Mattk]

... They didn't shutdown their "entire thermal power station infrastructure" - the stations just tripped their breakers. You can't just "shut down" coal fired stations at the drop of a hat (or breaker).

They not only shut their entire thermal power station infrastructure down, they also knocked the majority of the thermal power infrastructure down, so no it wasn't at the drop of a hut it was by a very deliberate miscalculated approach     

.... The units that failed WEREN'T the ones that were supplying load at the time of the failure. They were ADDITIONAL units that can be brought on-line to assist supplying the load. There are stations around the state that are designed to do emergency supply in the case of failure and are diesel or gas because it takes days to ramp coal fired stations.

FACT: There were no coal fired power stations to ramp up, they had been deliberately removed from the system, period 
FACT: Yes the ADDITIONAL units that can be brought online are piddling little gas and diesel plants, the biggest turbines (~ 150MW) operated by the South Australian Government are dirty old diesel fuel, so much for the SA green energy  . Just about as bad as dirty old Leigh Creek brown coal they use to shove into the coal plants   

... True about the distribution companies having the power to curtail the rooftop solar production if required.  It also within the power of the regulator to curtail any generation plant from providing power to the grid if supply is outstripping demand. This happens all the time.

Pity the poor old SA citizen who forks out literally thousands of $$'s for off their own solar system just to have the Gov fiddle the network and shut private systems down, then force them to pay for grid power, this really stinks hey   

.... The reason there are so many battery installation on the go is that they can be charged when power is cheap and injected into the grid just about instantly when required. This has already been shown to save millions. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-02/tesla-battery-expanded-as-sa-energy-minister-lauds-benefits/12622382

So much blurb, so little content, yep a 100 MW battery might run a few thousand homes for a tad over an hour .... then take 2 weeks to recharge, wow that is intelligent 

...I won't bother telling you what actually happened anymore, because it seems that your desired narrative supersedes having to rely on the inconvenience of what actually happened...

The inconvenience of what actually happened was an absolute disgrace but I do give you a 1 out of 10 for trying 

[sky_watcher]

So much blurb, so little content, yep a 100 MW battery might run a few thousand homes for a tad over an hour .... then take 2 weeks to recharge, wow that is intelligent 

Even given your previous comments, I was exceptionally surprised when I saw this one, because I gave you an actual link from where you could have quoted stuff to rip my argument apart.  But what came out wasn't about anything in the article, except that it included "MW battery", and even then the value you gave was wrong.

From the very start of the article it says the function of the battery "is intended to help stabilise the grid". In fact, it was repeated "We will be providing a number of grid-stabilising services", "That shock absorber-type capacity is what helps us to stop a blackout that would otherwise occur."

It also mentioned savings due to reducing peak prices "Apart from keeping the lights on, the giant battery has also been credited with driving down power bills. An independent review by consultancy firm Aurecon found the Tesla battery has saved SA consumers more than $150 million since it was built in 2017." (article dated 2020)

Yet oddly, your only take-away was something was not part of the stated functions, nor was not it even mentioned or implied in the article. Then, you invent a fanciful function for the battery and followed by "Wow, that is intelligent".

By now, I'm not really too sure whether you are claiming that you are intelligent for inventing an imaginary purpose; or whether you are admitting via sarcasm that it was an unintelligent thing to invent a purpose when everyone can see in the article that it was never even mentioned.

I know I said I wasn't going to explain anything last time, but your response so obviously off-topic that I could not resist. I promise to do better next time there is an "unusual" comment.

P.S. For anyone who read this and wondered what battery is being spoken about:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve

[gwwilk]

In a desperate and probably futile attempt to bring this thread back off-topic, what do you make of the current influenza season vis-a-vis past seasons?

(The blue season button on the bottom left will let you easily compare.)

[Aardvark]

The way I have seen some people wear masks, I understand why contraceptives don't work for some.

Only 17% of Americans are vaccine "hesitant".  Yet 58% of those people are Republican.  (15% are Democrat) (NYT)
32% of Republicans believe that the vaccine is really a "tracker" (Politico)..... but apparently their cell phones are not.
Republicanism in this country is deadly... to life and brain function. .

[Daali]

In a desperate and probably futile attempt to bring this thread back off-topic, what do you make of the current influenza season vis-a-vis past seasons?

(The blue season button on the bottom left will let you easily compare.)

I think we'll see a rise this year.  In 2020 we definitely benefitted from the new heightened awareness of hand washing, social distancing, and masks to curtail the numbers.  In our health system (800 beds, 4 hospitals) 2020 numbers were low.  When we had supply chain issues on tests, we had to give a flu test first, then if negative and having covid symptoms we would then schedule a covid test.  Now, we skip that part, but it will probably come back since we are getting false covid positives(non pcr) from flu infected.

One of my employees whole family tested positive for covid last week, but really it was the flu.  When she went for antibody treatment, they are forced to show a positive pcr test, which the whole family was then found negative.  It could be just a sample of bad testings/tests/labs/etc, but I think as a whole they are going back to the flu test first, then covid test.

[SnowHiker]

In 2020 we definitely benefitted from the new heightened awareness of hand washing, social distancing, and masks to curtail the numbers. 

So then why does the 20-21 flu season appear to be so much worse that at least the previous decade?

Or is the 20-21 map including Covid as an "Influenza-Like Illness"?  It's not clear from just a cursory glance.  I think most people would assume it is flu only, but if so it doesn't back up the idea that all the precautions being taken are at all beneficial.

Maybe less people went out and got the flu shot because they were afraid to go out?  In which case, that would help show the value of getting the flu shot, while at the same time showing that self-isolation isn't effective.

Maybe the virus weakened people's immune systems to the point that even those who were asymptomatic to covid infection subsequently developed the flu, or something.  Who knows.

More likely (at least in my mind), more people were diagnosed with the flu than from previous years because more people were being tested out of fear of Covid.

Still not what I was expecting, as it somehow seemed like there was very little flu and everything was being diagnosed as Covid.

I'm not sure definite conclusions can be drawn just from looking at the map.  Who knows if it's even accurate to begin with, seems everything needs to be verified nowdays.

It could be just a sample of bad testings/tests/labs/etc, ...

That could be.

The way I have seen some people wear masks, I understand why contraceptives don't work for some.

Only 17% of Americans are vaccine "hesitant".  Yet 58% of those people are Republican.  (15% are Democrat) (NYT)
32% of Republicans believe that the vaccine is really a "tracker" (Politico)..... but apparently their cell phones are not.
Republicanism in this country is deadly... to life and brain function. .

You're a genius Joe! 

But speaking of statistics:

If 58% are Republicans, 15% are Democrat, who are the other 27%?  Are there that many more Independents than Democrats?  Or did they find a bunch of Communists to poll, or were the rest all NYT employees (basically the same thing)?

[SnowHiker]

In a desperate and probably futile attempt to bring this thread back off-topic...

We see how well that worked! 

The way I have seen some people wear masks, I understand why contraceptives don't work for some.

Only 17% of Americans are vaccine "hesitant".  Yet 58% of those people are Republican.  (15% are Democrat) (NYT)
32% of Republicans believe that the vaccine is really a "tracker" (Politico)..... but apparently their cell phones are not.
Republicanism in this country is deadly... to life and brain function. .

But actually the topic was the name of tornadoes, as I recall.

So to get back on topic, I don't know what the modern name is, probably "Warm Fuzzy Swirlies" or something in the modern day effort to name things what they aren't.  "Crazy Climate Change Cyclones"?

As far as I know they aren't named "Ida" or "Fred" or something like hurricanes are, though I think they've started naming some winter storms and such.

Is that because they're not around long enough to get on a first name basis with?  Maybe we should name them "John Doe 1", "Jane Doe 2" and such?

[Daali]

I should have prefaced my comments on flu season as the healthcare system I work for in GA.  We had a very light 2020 flu related issues.  Our physicians said early last year that the flu shot we are required to get was matching up with the variant in the area, which rarely happens LOL.