Topic: Making a Long Term Winter Forecast?

[Farmtalk]

Someone came up to me today and asked if I could give them a long term outlook on this year's winter weather, and though I could use some models to get an idea for up to 2 weeks, I have never done any kind of long term forecasting.

So I was wondering, what kind of variables and maps do you look at when making long term forecasts like that?

[SLOweather]

I watch to see how much firewood the Indians are gathering...

[Scalphunter]

White man next to me got 20 cords cut and stack and still gathering.


John

[Garth Bock]

I saw no Woolly Worms at all this fall. Trees haven't turned very much here yet so I am waiting to see how long the leaves stay on the Burr Oaks.

My prediction for Central Illinois.....decreasing daylight, followed by cold crappy conditions. Some snow to make things miserable but only falling on the weekends. All this followed by increasing light and better conditions by early next year until it warms up again.

[Bushman]

Cue the "Hippy Dippy Weatherman..."

[richard583]

Mainly you would check the current state of ENSO. This set beside what's said more generally with considering where it's at.

[WeatherHost]

I saw no Woolly Worms at all this fall. Trees haven't turned very much here yet so I am waiting to see how long the leaves stay on the Burr Oaks.

I've seen several, but no consensus on their band patterns.  I've seen some with no bands, others with narrow bands, and others all dark.  As I understand the concept, wider, darker bands are supposed to indicate snow.

Some trees are nearly bare, but never really charged color.  They just dropped their leaves.  Others are just starting to turn.  Grass is still growing in most areas, but at a slower rate.

Hummingbirds left about the same time they did last year.

People I've talked to have a 'bad feeling' about this winter.  We really haven't had much winter for the last three years and they feel we're overdue.  For some reason, I've been seeing and hearing references to '77-'78, which I really don't want to think about.

[WeatherHost]

Out for my walk today, I saw at least 10, maybe more.  All of them were mainly brown with little or no black banding.

[DaculaWeather]

Joseph, there are many variables that go into a long term forecast, and much past a month, none are very accurate at all. I just did a blog post about the next several weeks that you can see here. http://dacula.patch.com/groups/north-georgia-weathers-blog/p/looking-ahead-to-december

I touched on some of the pieces you would need to look at, and just skimmed a few others. It's a complex interaction between teleconnections, ENSO, MJO, and others, that are needed to even get close. Persistence also comes into play. And to create a forecast, you actually have to understand some of those interactions and how the play off of each other.