Author Topic: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections  (Read 20908 times)

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Offline PaulMy

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2013, 11:34:54 AM »
Quote
Do you in fact understand any, of what I've said within my most recent projection posted above, if I may ask. ?
Sorry to say, No :oops:

Paul

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2013, 12:02:54 PM »
So parsing
Quote
It's fairly simple stuff, ... greater cold air mass will move either whether more or less quickly east where looking at its more longitudinally potential, while at the same time, either whether being caused to recede more northward or spread more south where looked at more latitudinally. And in either case, where and with considering the basic timeframes that I've pointed to.
and removing the parenthetical expressions results in

Quote

It's fairly simple stuff, ... greater cold air mass will move east [and] either recede more northward or spread more south [in the] basic timeframes that I've pointed to.

As you say above, what you are posting is for discussion -- it would be easier for us to enter said discussion if your meaning was quickly understandable.  It is your phrasing and qualifying parenthetical expressions that make it hard to tease the meaning from your sentences -- that is the main feedback I was trying to give you.


hello again Ken.

Appreciate your time.

Alright, for discussion sake then, ...

Although, with respect, in point of fact I'm finding your assessment, or perhaps better said, characterization of my input, here above, somewhat arbitrary.

.. With this that you've pointed to above not having to do with actual colder air movement, perhaps you could run the same process that you have here, on my most recent projection submitted. This, so that I can view what you've noted more specifically where considering it -perhaps.

I've included a copy of it below, slightly changed with the various scrutiny that its been exposed to since my having originally posted it. This, if with my not having changed any of the main and fairly, in my own view leastwise, general ideas that I'd hoped to convey with it.

Within the second short section showing here, I've added the phrase "with this idea", followed by a comma, following "and if". Beyond this addition, each of the changes that I've made further have been to the statement of clarification that I'd added, addressing my use of the phrase "colder air". Here, I've omitted one comma, with having inserted one otherwise, elsewhere within the section. This, with my having added an [ing]which I'd inadvertently forgotto the word "be", preceding "influential". These changes, along with my additionally having taken out the word "the", before "its movement"with my not having done so where and when I'd initially proof-read the submission. I suppose I could have omitted the word "with" preceding "its various movement", but have elected not to.

Posted originally at 22:02z for the 28th of April.

As I'd suggested above, at this point I'm estimating that main colder air mass looked at more broadly, will begin to retract daily more northward for several days, …

This, with its being caused to move more slowly eastward through May 2nd or so, before beginning to move somewhat at least, more assertive east daily, and if with this idea, through a steadily higher latitude corridor.

Also, important to note here at this seasonal point with looking at the idea of "colder air", in fact I'm using the term more relatively. And so, with this idea, and even with its various movement looked at still certainly being influential where looking different types of weather possible with warmer weather, in many cases where considering its movement, it can be thought of more simply as just "cooler" air mass, more moderating.


No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the general outlook included above as part of this post.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2013, 02:05:57 AM by richard583 »
—> wider graphic .

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #27 on: May 02, 2013, 06:15:06 PM »


With reference to my general projection submitted on 28th of April.
http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=18540.msg181547#msg181547

With there still being plenty of cold north at this seasonal point, even with, its having been retracting daily northward since the 28th of Apr., where and with also looking at main and broader cold's at the same time steadily more slowed movement east from the 26th and through to the 1st of May, the over-all patterning more hemispheric scale has shifted steadily since the 26th, to one increasingly more meridional.


(Click on this image.)

With this larger idea in mind, where looking at the main contiguous US more specifically, the colder air mass having moved significantly south, east of the Rockies and down through the country's main mid-section over the past few days, has resulted mainly with more primary cold air mass out of the north and to the northwest, having first crested over the main ridging having built up over the far west and eastern Pacific before then having been steered southward, with its both slower movement east, looked at together with its also having followed the larger topography of the Great Divine.

—> wider graphic .

Offline DaculaWeather

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #28 on: May 02, 2013, 08:06:12 PM »
Now where is that "IGNORE" button again?

Ah, there it is.....    :-P
Where!!!

Offline vaughanweather

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Re: Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #29 on: May 02, 2013, 09:44:12 PM »
Ignoring the PNA and NAO movement's, the blocking pattern that continues to bring a Mediterranean like pattern to South East Canada, the upper Midwest and Ohio valley looks to continue through the weekend into late next week as an upper trough finally moves through eventually breaking the pattern down.

The bulk of the cold air will dissipate by that point with a more zonal flow taking over and confining the remaining cold air to a few pockets across the Northern Plains.

Low amplitude ridging will allow a gulf flow to resurge across the Southern Plains and gulf states but a lack of dynamic troughs coming in from the pacific will keep things relatively tame as far as storms and precipitation go.

Seasonal temperatures will return to the areas currently below average (mainly places which are currently seeing snow along the Mississippi Valley and up into Wisconsin / Minnesota through Northwestern Ontario).

At present there is goof agreement between and the GEM/GFS and NOGAPS that this will be most likely solution bringing us into a seasonal recovery period for all of North America by May 15th.

So the end of the cold air mass is in sight and winter is "hopefully" breathing its last breath this week into early next week.

It's been so bad I've postponed my storm chase trip this year, I might have to go storm chasing in June and concentrate on the Northern Plains. Not my preference due to cellular coverage and more limited roads but that's the card mother nature is playing.

Offline DaculaWeather

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2013, 04:11:12 AM »
Post #29

Offline DaculaWeather

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2013, 05:08:55 AM »
Richard, reply #29 is infinitely more clear and concise than any of your rambling posts. If you would write in a manner that people could understand it would be different, but multiple people have pointed out that you don't.

I'm not sure what's so hard for YOU to understand... :roll:


Offline saratogaWX

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2013, 02:52:21 PM »
Richard,

It is not for us to rewrite your prose to make it more understandable.  You persist is using convoluted phrasing, digressions, parenthetical expressions and other artifices in your prose that make it obscure and mostly unfathomable to most readers.

Either succinctly say what you mean or simply stop posting -- what you have been posting is not generally valuable to others since it is not easily understandable to most readers.
Ken True/Saratoga, CA, USA main site: saratoga-weather.org
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Offline Weather Display

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2013, 05:45:30 PM »
I gotta say, it does look like Richard583 has been "taking the piss" with you guys
(i.e "having a go" at you guys)
or is actually serious that he cant get his ideas across differently?
Brian
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Offline vaughanweather

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Re: Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2013, 11:38:03 PM »
I sort of understand what he is saying but then there are numerous contradictory statements that I see / interpret and it throws the concept off.

Easiest way to discuss broad scale synoptic weather is to use concrete geographical locations and common terminology like lobe, tongue, positive, amplified, zonal, retrogression, polar, etc.

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2013, 07:42:52 PM »

hey Greg. ("SlowModem".)

With this that you've said further, I'm assuming that you've meant post the 2nd. Certainly possible where considering your latitude set with what I've said. And then otherwise, where considering your doubt expressed here above about cold's recession more northward, ... So do you think that "cold" looked at more over-all, will continue to move more southward still where looking ahead from this point. ?

Friday morning coming up, I may have to scrape frost off the windshield when I get off from work.  There's a cold air mass coming down into the plains later this week heading eastward.  It's southern extreme may be Dallas or Austin.  It will probably make it into TN and points east after that.

I wish it would go away.  It's hard on the garden and my bees.  I'm ready for Spring.

Well with reference to what I'd had to say beforehand where looking at the idea, together with also what I've said since within my post above three from the top, it looks like things (cold.) have in fact both continued on, way north of you, while otherwise having undercut where you are before finally getting to you a day later.

Click on these images here below to see their larger versions.



main source: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=24&inv=0&t=cur

What were the main temps registering on your instrumentation there where you are earlier this morning. ?
« Last Edit: May 12, 2013, 07:00:06 PM by richard583 »
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2013, 09:11:55 PM »
Today's high was 60 and low was 53.  With all the cloud cover (like a blanket) the temps didn't change much here today.  Those cut-off lows and weird jet streams are making the weather almost unpredicitable.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2013, 11:21:12 PM »

More specific than what I've said above regarding cold, I think Tom's ("vaughanweather's") got a fair bead on what's going on and will more where looking ahead for the next main chunk to time (10 to even 12 days) main and greater contiguous U.S. wise.

http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=18540.msg181838
—> wider graphic .

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2013, 06:42:23 AM »


.. Greater cold air mass will slow its pace east on the 10th, and spread more south again beginning on the 13th of May.
—> wider graphic .

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #39 on: May 07, 2013, 07:45:54 AM »
Yesterday was 20°F below normal.  Today is starting out cold, but should be warming up as that upper level Low tracks off to the east.  Normal low this morning 51°F, actual low this morning 43°F.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2013, 04:17:41 PM »

Yeh, hey Greg.

The cut-off low pretty much centered over you right nowresulting mainly due to a lingering of the strong shot of cold having been steered sharply south west of you a few days agolooks like its pulling in some additional cold from its north, down to where you are at this point.

Though the result more of colder sea-surface temperatures (the colder Pacific at this point.) together with the greater topography of Coast, of course a somewhat similar circumstance has developed here where I am more out west over the past three or four days.

Main point at this point I think, noteworthy, still plenty of cold being steered around.
—> wider graphic .

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2013, 06:24:30 PM »
It's 80F today.  But the TV Weatherman just said possible 30s monday morning after an "artic front" comes through sunday night.  I wish this would end.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #42 on: May 10, 2013, 03:40:07 AM »

Hmn. Interesting, .. "arctic front" sunday night, 30's monday morning huh. ..

With what I've said projected more recently above, I'd been expecting the lower part of the main and larger glut of cold air focused north of you would likely dip south some from the Great Lakes east. But that would certainly be a significant dip.

 13050912z_nhem_500.gif
(source: Unysis Weather)

More where looking at your 80° temp today, set with what I'd projected back on the 28th of April about a more over-all recession of cold, with there still being plenty of cold around apparently, where looking at the main NW hem. at least, the "south" is the only section of the U.S. that's warmed up, to stay warm, with this idea.
—> wider graphic .

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #43 on: May 10, 2013, 07:06:45 AM »
It's 80F today.  But the TV Weatherman just said possible 30s monday morning after an "artic front" comes through sunday night.  I wish this would end.
I'm hearing low 40s for Monday, possible Record area.

But I don't really want it to end as such.  I could handle these low dips all summer.  I'd much rather have August morning lows in the 50s than the mid to upper 70s.


Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #44 on: May 11, 2013, 08:00:58 PM »
Geeze, now they're back to using the "F" word for Sunday night/Monday morning.

Got too many plants and other things out now to bring them all in.


Offline SlowModem

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #45 on: May 11, 2013, 08:18:06 PM »
We were just discussing that.  My parents put out tomato and pepper plants.  I don't think it will hurt them, maybe  just scare them.   :shock:


Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Monday Sunny, with a high near 68. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Blackberry Winter (they're blooming like crazy!)
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #46 on: May 12, 2013, 03:51:23 PM »
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY.

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
  TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
  COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF
  FROST.

* TEMPERATURE: TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR DROP INTO THE 30S BY
  300 AM. PRE DAWN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
  ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP ABOVE
  40 DEGREES BY 800 AM.

Not really sure how unusual this is, but Louisville, Nashville and Memphis all have similar statements.


Offline richard583

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #47 on: May 12, 2013, 06:54:57 PM »

hey "WeatherHost".

Not really sure how unusual this is, but Louisville, Nashville and Memphis all have similar statements.

Checking a few different resources more horticulturally focused I found this below.



Tullahoma, closest of all of the main cities listed here to where "SlowModem" is there in TN, near Watts Bar Dam, shows the average "last" frost date in Spring being today's date in fact.
—> wider graphic .

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #48 on: May 12, 2013, 07:22:27 PM »
Tullahoma, closest of all of the main cities listed here to where "SlowModem" is there in TN, near Watts Bar Dam, shows the average "last" frost date in Spring being today's date in fact.

Tullahoma is up on the Cumberland Plateau so it would frost later in the year.  We usually plant tomatoes and such after April 15th (tax day is easy to remember).  It may not get below 40 tonight, but we'll see.  It may depend on the wind.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Spring 2013 Cold Air Mass Movement Projections
« Reply #49 on: May 12, 2013, 08:10:54 PM »
From one 'a them thar plantin' sites (search is by Zip Code):

Quote
Each winter, on average, your risk of frost is from October 17 through April 11.

Almost certainly, however, you will receive frost from November 1 through March 29.

You are almost guaranteed that you will not get frost from April 24 through October 2.

Your frost-free growing season is around 189 days.



 :shock: ](*,)


Either they're info is a bit off, or this is really unusual.


 

anything