Interesting FC discussion from HSI (Hastings, NE) weather office, for coming week:
Pattern begins to change on Tue as a trough deepens over the W
CONUS and a warm front develops over the C Plains. This trough
will deepen in response to amplifying ridging at higher
latitudes, namely from the Gulf of Alaska NE toward Greenland.
This will allow upper lows to amplify/strengthen "beneath" them
and potentially become cut-off. This scenario has support from
climatology as we are in peak "cut-off low season". This blocking
pattern looks to continue into the following weekend which may be
setting the stage for an even stronger/colder system compared to
the mid-week system. Plenty of time to fine tune details,
obviously, but pattern is almost certainly setting up to be a much
colder and more active one compared to the start of the week.
Considering the aforementioned pattern, tend to favor the
stronger/slower solution of the EC compared to weaker/faster GFS.
Would not at all be surprised if system slowed down even further,
maybe even by as much as 12-24hrs. However, as it stands now, a
strong storm system looks to emerge onto the Plains on Wed. Much
too early to discuss specifics, but depending on exact
timing/track, could be looking at a scenario with both
strong/severe tstms and snow impacting NE/KS (maybe even both in
our local area) Wed into Thu, esp. if stronger EC solution
verifies. Certainly a time period to watch.
Below normal (and maybe even well below normal) temperatures move
in behind the system for the end of the week, and suspect going
forecast will only trend lower. As previously mentioned, models
hint at yet another system to impact the area the following
weekend.