Author Topic: First thing in the morning....  (Read 11185 times)

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Offline DanS

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2012, 10:28:32 AM »
I wonder if you could do an evening forecast by pouring a beer and watching the bubbles from the foam? :-k

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2012, 10:31:10 AM »
I wonder if you could do an evening forecast by pouring a beer and watching the bubbles from the foam? :-k

In the interest of science, I'm willing to give that a try.  UU


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Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #27 on: February 27, 2012, 09:08:02 AM »
The observations and interpretation for yesterday is edited into that post.  No overnight forecast.

February 27 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Sunny
The Weather Channel = Sunny
Wunderground = Clear
NWS = Sunny
Davis Vue = Partly cloudy
6:00am Coffee = Expect clear skies for the next 12 hours

[edit]
And the observation...
Clear all day.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = YES
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = NO
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
« Last Edit: February 28, 2012, 09:24:12 AM by xykotik »


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #28 on: February 28, 2012, 09:35:14 AM »
February 28 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Mostly cloudy, afternoon rain/snow
The Weather Channel = Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of rain
Wunderground = Mostly cloudy, 80% chance of precip
NWS = 30% chance of rain/snow after 10am
Davis Vue = Partly cloudy - snow
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast from mid-morning.  Light rain after 5:00pm.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = YES
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = NO
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
« Last Edit: February 29, 2012, 08:59:03 AM by xykotik »


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #29 on: February 29, 2012, 09:04:58 AM »
February 29 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Light snow (all local mets are brief today)
The Weather Channel = Partly cloudy, 80% chance of rain/snow
Wunderground = 70% chance of snow
NWS = 80% chance of rain
Davis Vue = Rain
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast all day.  Light rain most of the day.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = NO
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = NO
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = YES
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
« Last Edit: March 01, 2012, 09:19:18 AM by xykotik »


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2012, 09:28:47 AM »
I'm going to continue to March 3, just to get more data points and make the math easier.

March 1 forecasts...
Local TV weather = 1-3" of morning snow (for my area) then partial clearning
The Weather Channel = Mostly cloudy.  Morning snow showers and afternoon rain showers
Wunderground = Mostly cloudy.  Morning snow showers and afternoon rain showers
NWS = Snow likely in morning then mostly cloudy
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = Maybe some weather, should clear in a few hours.

March in Seattle...  In like a lion, out like a wet lion.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast morning.  Party cloudy afternoon.  Cloudy again after sunset.  No precip.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = NO
The Weather Channel = NO
Wunderground = NO
NWS = NO
Davis Vue = YES
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
« Last Edit: March 02, 2012, 09:33:30 AM by xykotik »


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2012, 09:38:16 AM »
March 2 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Afternoon rain
The Weather Channel = Overcast. 50% chance of rain
Wunderground = 80% chance of precip
NWS = 70% chance of rain
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast allday.  Light rain morning.  Moderate rain afternoon.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = YES
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = NO
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 09:09:12 AM by xykotik »


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline Majic12

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2012, 12:42:42 PM »
coffee bubbles predicted rain...its raining now 3 hours later...
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Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2012, 09:16:29 AM »
Final day of observations...

March 3 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Mostly cloudy
The Weather Channel = Cloudy with a few showers.
Wunderground = 40% chance of showers
NWS = 40% chance of showers
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Mostly cloudy morning.  partly cloudy afternoon. No precip at all.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = NO
Wunderground = YES (less than 50% chance, and it didn't)
NWS = YES (less than 50% chance, and it didn't)
Davis Vue = YES
6:00am Coffee = NO
[/edit]
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 10:58:55 PM by xykotik »


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline DanS

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2012, 09:33:36 AM »
So, after today's weather can you provide us with a summary of the accuracy of coffee bubble forecasting? :-P

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2012, 11:22:46 PM »
To restate the OP, Garth Bock linked to this article about predicting the weather with your morning coffee.

To test this theory and compare it with other popular forecasts for accuracy, I compiled forecasts for ten consecutive days and recorded my observations at the end of the day.  The chart below represents (in order of percentage successful forecasts) the results.  Y= successful forcast.  N = unsuccessful forecast.  Highly subjective and not entirely scientific, but it was fun.  Here we go...

COFFEE     YYNYYYYYYN   80%
NWS          YYNYYYYNYY   80%
LOCAL-TV   YYNYYYNNYY   70%
TWC          YYNNYYYNYN   60%
WU            YYNNYYNNYY   60%
VUE           YNNYNNYYNY   50%

Please draw your own conclusions.  I have to cut the Davis Vue a little slack, because there are no subjective inputs to it's forecast, and the weather in the Puget Sound region of Washington State is hard to predict even when a meteorologist is doing the fortune-telling.  Their broadcasts typically change frequently throughout the day, but I went with what I read in their personalized online post in the morning.


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline W3DRM

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2012, 11:34:47 PM »
I get up and take out my ear-plugs (someone else in the family snores...)  :shock:

Then, I turn on the coffee and go out and get my daily reading from my CoCoRAHS gauge and input it to the network.

Lastly, I pour me a cup of java.

What was the first thing I was supposed to do??? - check "bubbles" or was it check "the bubbles" in my coffee - sorry, I'm just lost I guess  :?: ](*,)

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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #37 on: March 05, 2012, 06:33:20 AM »
Hmmm I get up early, normally around 430, but ive never drank a cup of coffee in my life :grin:
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-1090 Fine Offset
Weather Station Software-> Weather Display 10.37S, Cumulus 1.94
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
Administrator-> www.fitzweather.org

Offline DanS

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #38 on: March 05, 2012, 06:57:08 AM »
The link in the OP says that hot tea and cocoa will work too so there's still a chance you can help with the forecast in your area.  ;)
« Last Edit: March 05, 2012, 07:01:37 AM by DanS »

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #39 on: March 05, 2012, 04:31:41 PM »
Yeah thats true, i drink tea occasionally so I guess I can still try this! :grin:
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-1090 Fine Offset
Weather Station Software-> Weather Display 10.37S, Cumulus 1.94
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
Administrator-> www.fitzweather.org

Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2012, 07:42:28 PM »
Yeah thats true, i drink tea occasionally so I guess I can still try this! :grin:

I drink it black, so I had to use the "plop" method to make more bubbles.  Some sweetener or milk might increase the bubblosity of your tea.


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline Mark / Ohio

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2012, 08:56:17 PM »
;) You guys must have more time in the morning then I do.     Mine almost goes straight from the pot down the hatch.  lol
Mark 
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Offline xykotik

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2012, 10:03:35 PM »
;) You guys must have more time in the morning then I do.     Mine almost goes straight from the pot down the hatch.  lol

Make coffee, wake the kids and read the news (online) while they get ready for school is the start of my day.

Three Christmasses ago, wifey got me one of them fancy Keurig machines.  Heats up just as I get up, and it takes about 30 seconds to make a good cup.  Fairly high-tech little doohickies, them little K-cups, by the time they get 'em filled, nitro-charged and sealed.  Several options for fill-yer-own too, for those who hate all of the waste from the cups (which actually compress quite small).


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: First thing in the morning....
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2012, 10:37:26 PM »
Three Christmasses ago, wifey got me one of them fancy Keurig machines.  Heats up just as I get up, and it takes about 30 seconds to make a good cup. 

I've had a Bunn for years.  It would be hard for me to part with it.
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