Author Topic: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?  (Read 28108 times)

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Offline Farmtalk

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Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« on: January 23, 2011, 07:08:11 PM »
If the groundhog sees his shadow, we have 6 more weeks of winter.
If the groundhog does not see his shadow, winter will end soon.

I dont believe he will see his shadow...I just have a hunch :-) Plus, I want spring to come early this year

What do you think? Will he see his shadow?
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Offline Downlinerz2

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2011, 08:51:05 PM »
   The 3 groundhogs around my house don't have AMS seals.   :roll:

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2011, 09:02:09 PM »
The only one I know of around here other than Puxatawny in PA is French Creek Freddy in east-central WV, although there is one lurking about 30 miles southwest of of me.....
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2011, 06:21:20 AM »
The only one I know of around here other than Puxatawny in PA is French Creek Freddy in east-central WV, although there is one lurking about 30 miles southwest of of me.....

General Beauregard Lee is in Georgia.

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Offline xykotik

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2011, 04:21:44 PM »
Bret Favre will announce his retirement from the NFL ;)


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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2011, 04:29:37 PM »
What did the groundhog's day festivities conclude two or three years ago when he announced he was going to retire! :-)
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Offline Downlinerz2

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2011, 05:28:50 PM »
What did the groundhog's day festivities conclude two or three years ago when he announced he was going to retire! :-)
    It never concludes anything

Offline xykotik

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2011, 11:14:42 AM »
I probably should have saved that for the "favorite weather-related movie" thread.  Bill Murray played a weatherman afterall.


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline Scalphunter

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2011, 11:41:49 AM »
them ground hogs going to freeze their back sides off. Another freeze be there just about that time.  Got that prediction from an ice worm.


Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2011, 07:51:26 PM »
I enjoy the snowy season, so it dosent matter to me... However, I would like to play outside without getting frostbit #-o
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2011, 05:14:51 AM »
From The Old Farmer's Almanac:

Quote
Groundhog Day is coming! Will the groundhog see his shadow? If we were in the middle of an El Niño, he might just see it. Behind the rodent folklore is an odd bit of science trivia.

The Folklore—Look at the legend that has had folks trekking to Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania since 1887. According to the folklore, if Phil the groundhog comes out of his hole and sees his shadow on February 2, it means there will be six more weeks of really crummy weather. If not, the rest of winter will melt away.

This legend is a holdover from European folklore. Since medieval times, people watched hedgehogs, badgers, bears or wolves to see if they saw their shadows on Candlemas, February 2. Once people settled in America, the local groundhogs took the place of bears, badgers and other critters.

According to the National Climate Data Center (NCDC), the tradition became publicized in 1887 when a newspaperman wrote about local hunters who celebrated February 2 by going on a groundhog hunt, followed by a jolly groundhog barbecue. He embellished the story with tales of the forecasting skills of Punxsutawney Phil. The rest is history.

The Science—When people continue a weather tradition, it is usually because it contains at least a small grain of truth. Historically the grain of truth for Groundhog’s Day in America is related to the El Niño.

The El Niño, an abnormally warm Tropical Pacific current, warps global wind and weather patterns. In North America it usually produces a warm winter starting along the West Coast and expanding eastward. By mid-winter, the warmth of a moderate to large El Niño usually reaches the Great Lakes and Midwest. Then, as the El Niño weakens, the warmth retreats and normal winter returns to the East.

In large parts of the East, this means an El Niño frequently produces a cool early winter, warm mid-winter and cool late winter. If a large rodent was wandering around in the relatively mild mid-winter, there might be enough sunshine to see his shadow. Then the El Niño would weaken and winter would literally come storming back.

It should be remembered that the Groundhog tradition persisted in America during the 1700s and 1800s, during the last stages of the “Little Ice Age.” What occasionally worked during those chilly times may not work now. The NCDC claims that since 1988, groundhogs have only had a 39% accuracy rate.

Accurate or not—it’s a great holiday and a good excuse for a party or barbecue.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline 4wd

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2011, 05:43:40 AM »
The general idea behind this is widespread in many areas, certainly Europe also.

Fine spells in winter tend to to preceed a further period of snow or stormy weather?
Well maybe, but the real point is that it can start to feel like winter is nearly done if the sun is out, as it now has a little power again.
But the worst part of winter is often towards the end, as the cold to the north is now at it's height - and interacting with the first plumes of warmer air from the south can cause *trouble* !

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2011, 04:05:20 PM »
The groundhog DID NOT see his shadow, so Spring is coming 6 weeks earlier this year.
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Offline chief-david

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2011, 04:54:51 PM »
All I think is    Yeah-right


Not when so much of the US is covered in snow.
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Offline tbern

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2011, 05:11:53 PM »
spring 6 weeks early????   that puts spring starting on this sunday feb 6th,the forcast high of 20 and low of -1 must be wrong :roll:

Offline kiabird

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2011, 05:20:52 PM »
They found the groundhog under the avalanche?   :lol:

Offline Scalphunter

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2011, 06:49:57 PM »
 Ice worms came out and says 6  more weeks of cold and snow ........

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2011, 08:08:21 PM »
You have said "ice worms" on a couple of occasions. What do you mean by that?
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Offline Scalphunter

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2011, 11:09:10 PM »
 Ice worm  are real worms  goggle them if you  know how.

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2011, 05:36:54 AM »
Sorry... I thought someone who talks about them would be a better thing to check out than to google it...PS I know how to google :oops:
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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2011, 05:27:09 PM »
Wow! It looks like the Groundhog was right for my region.... The last month has been VERY warm with temperatures consistently 10-20 above normal
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Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2011, 10:10:26 AM »
Is it too early to start talking about Pauxy yet?  :-P
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Offline DanS

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2011, 10:36:05 AM »
Y'all still have a bit to enjoyl before the miseries return. ;)
« Last Edit: November 14, 2011, 04:55:51 PM by DanS »

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2011, 01:58:40 PM »
Miseries? Im 1/2! I got to have a passing grade! Get this one right and Ill be 2/3 8-)  Extensive reasong to be conferred :roll:
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Offline DanS

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Re: Groundhog's Day Predictions Anybody?
« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2011, 04:50:12 PM »
I was referring to the thread subject/title and the still to come weather before your 'miseries' (summer heat) return. :-P