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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Conditions Discussion => Topic started by: ValentineWeather on September 23, 2019, 05:49:16 AM

Title: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 23, 2019, 05:49:16 AM
The first day of fall also ushered in our first 30's. So far 38F this morning at my PWS located on NE side of Valentine.
Here are average frost and freeze dates for the region from the Omaha NWS website.  https://www.weather.gov/oax/freeze
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 23, 2019, 06:16:26 AM
This morning I'm testing out the new heat pump installed on house. Not my choice of heating for this climate when you can purchase propane in summer for around $1.20 a gallon currently.
Anyway, the heat pump is warming the 40F air to 94F at the duct vent without strip heaters. Not bad I guess but once temperatures drop below about 25F approximate balance point electric strip heaters will need to supplement. COP on heat pump runs about 2.9 or 290% efficiency at 17F.  What's scary they install 2-15kW (60 amps each) strip heaters for this climate which will spin the meter like a top when both are needed at -20F.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 23, 2019, 02:50:09 PM
This is some rarefied air for us down here using the "E" word. Even Dorothy and Toto are taking notice of the 2% chance.. 8-[


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 23, 2019, 02:57:33 PM
This morning I'm testing out the new heat pump installed on house.
My first house here in Tucson had a heat pump, worked great in the summer, but in the winter, not so much. If it got into the 40's, it couldn't warm the house worth a damn, even with the strips. I'm sure however that the technology has improved since as this house was built in 1988 or could have simply been an inefficient/cheap one.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 23, 2019, 04:20:57 PM
This is some rarefied air for us down here using the "E" word. Even Dorothy and Toto are taking notice of the 2% chance.. 8-[


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Wow! you don't see that often. I do remember a big tornactic outbreak in October one year, what made it so rare was the tornadoes developed along the mountainous region SW of Flagstaff.  They had multiple paths of downed trees some going 35 miles long up to 1/4 mile wide. We elk hunted the same area a few weeks later in November and were amazed by the downed trees and how clear it was to see each tornado path.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 23, 2019, 04:30:33 PM
In 1964 we had an F2 kill two here. Super rare.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 24, 2019, 04:06:56 PM
Local WFO confirmed EF1 in Willcox, about 40 miles east of Tucson. Some injuries, apparently some pets were killed.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on September 26, 2019, 03:26:03 AM
The first day of fall also ushered in our first 30's. So far 38F this morning at my PWS located on NE side of Valentine.
Here are average frost and freeze dates for the region from the Omaha NWS website.  https://www.weather.gov/oax/freeze
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I can't imagine having temps in the 30s in September.  I can for October.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 26, 2019, 05:11:25 AM
Here is the Cutbank Montana Forecast:  :-P

SaturdaySnow. Patchy blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday NightSnow. Patchy blowing snow between midnight and 3am. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on September 26, 2019, 09:03:21 AM
Some good creative writing from the Chicago NWS Office (Rodriguez Carlaw):

"The main focus on the long term portion of the forecast remains on
the Friday morning through overnight period as the next series of
disturbances rotating across the region. Pretty hard to believe
that a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is in
the offing here with widespread surface dewpoints in the 40s and
lower 40s in our newly-minted post-frontal regime, but a notable
airmass change is in the cards as we work into Friday."

No typos either.

Corrected author above.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on September 26, 2019, 10:35:45 AM
Here is the Cutbank Montana Forecast:  :-P

SaturdaySnow. Patchy blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday NightSnow. Patchy blowing snow between midnight and 3am. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Whoa
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on September 26, 2019, 08:54:04 PM
Some interesting weather coming up:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 27 2019 - 00Z Sun Sep 29 2019

...Early season snowstorm with heavy snow and strong winds likely for the Northern Rockies...

...Huge temperature contrasts across the nation.  Much below average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest, Northern Great Basin, California and into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.  Much above average temperatures expected from the Central to Southern Plains, eastward into the East...

...Heavy rain, localized flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible across the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday...

The battle of the seasons will be underway across the nation over the next few days with much below average temperatures developing from the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, California, into the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, while much above average temperatures dominate from the Central to Southern Plains into the East.  An amplifying mid to upper level low will be the main driver of the cold Western U.S. weather pattern over the next few days as it deepens across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin, spreading much below average temperatures as far south as Southern California and eastward into the Great Basin, Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.  This system will also be responsible for the developing major winter storm across the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains beginning Friday night and continuing through the weekend.  The greatest snowfall totals expected across northwest Montana where 1 to 3 feet of snow is forecast, along with high winds that will produce blizzard conditions.


YIKES!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 27, 2019, 07:39:23 AM
Montana is in for a major storm looking at this. Cutbank could get 30" with some areas 50". 

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on September 28, 2019, 03:44:13 PM
Would that be this guy?

Mike Morgan, an accredited meteorologist with KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, twice called for all residents of South Oklahoma City to 'flee their homes' and 'drive south' when a tornado approached the area on the evening of 31 May 2013. Mr. Morgan described a 'mile-wide debris ball' headed their way . . .
. . . Mr. Morgan's calls for the hundreds of thousands of residents of South Oklahoma City to flee their homes was dangerous, negligent, misleading, and counter to commonly held tornado advice. It was beneath the standards set by the American Meteorological Society, through which Mr. Morgan is accredited.


I guess he didn't get fired yet.

We have a similar guy in Chicago who is always overstating and exaggerating storms. Next day nothing happens, false alarm, again.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on September 28, 2019, 03:46:01 PM
The average low for September here is around 63.  Yet it's only been down to a low of 64 during September at my station. On the 27th, it got up to 92, kinda unusual for this late in September.  As time goes on, it will be interesting to see if this warming trend stays up through winter and maybe KFOR's chief weatherman Mike Morgan next spring will be saying how the averages have been up every month since September.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on September 28, 2019, 03:57:01 PM
Would that be this guy?

Mike Morgan, an accredited meteorologist with KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, twice called for all residents of South Oklahoma City to 'flee their homes' and 'drive south' when a tornado approached the area on the evening of 31 May 2013. Mr. Morgan described a 'mile-wide debris ball' headed their way . . .
. . . Mr. Morgan's calls for the hundreds of thousands of residents of South Oklahoma City to flee their homes was dangerous, negligent, misleading, and counter to commonly held tornado advice. It was beneath the standards set by the American Meteorological Society, through which Mr. Morgan is accredited.

Yes, it's that guy and not fired. But I bet he has visited neighborhoods after they were struck by a F5 tornado and was aghast to see nothing was left of houses but the concrete slab foundations.   It's hard to survive going through such massive destruction, or keep from being badly hurt,  so I don't blame Morgan for giving out that advice.   He saw another F5 tornado threat.  You simply have to balance out which is safer to do when a F5 tornado may be coming.  Stay at home and hope for the best.  Or panic and crowd the highways headed south and hope you don't get stalled from traffic congestion with a tornado coming.  Fortunately, F5 tornadoes are rare.   So I don't panic, I live with the situation by having a reinforced safe room in my home to go to.   Three of my neighbors have storm cellars in their backyards.  The need of doing that was reflective of how Oklahoma was never the same after the Moore F5 tornado of 1999 killed 36 people and injured 583.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 28, 2019, 04:12:59 PM
Would that be this guy?

Mike Morgan, an accredited meteorologist with KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City, twice called for all residents of South Oklahoma City to 'flee their homes' and 'drive south' when a tornado approached the area on the evening of 31 May 2013. Mr. Morgan described a 'mile-wide debris ball' headed their way . . .
. . . Mr. Morgan's calls for the hundreds of thousands of residents of South Oklahoma City to flee their homes was dangerous, negligent, misleading, and counter to commonly held tornado advice. It was beneath the standards set by the American Meteorological Society, through which Mr. Morgan is accredited.

Yes, it's that guy and not fired. But I bet he has visited neighborhoods after they were struck by a F5 tornado and was aghast to see nothing was left of houses but the concrete slab foundations.   A number of people can't survive going through such massive destruction, so I don't blame Morgan for giving out that advice.   He saw another tornado F5 coming.  You simply have to balance out which is safer to do when a F5 tornado may be coming.  Stay at home and hope for the best.  Or panic and crowd the highways headed south and hope you don't get stalled from traffic congestion with a tornado coming.  Fortunately, F5 tornadoes are rare.
Personally, I think that's the most stupid, irresponsible thing I've ever heard. If you live in the tornado capital of the world, and not just in frequency but intensity as well...and don't have a place to be underground, then you deserve to be swept away. Sending people out of their homes like maniacs is just another disaster in the making. :roll:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 28, 2019, 04:22:36 PM
Agree on the TV guy, totally irresponsible. But many can't just pack up and leave for various reasons if they don't have a storm shelter nearby or can't afford to build one.   
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on September 28, 2019, 04:26:31 PM
Here Morgan is telling people to go underground or go south.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDbCdmk1_lg[/youtube]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 28, 2019, 04:33:43 PM
But many can't just pack up and leave for various reasons if they don't have a storm shelter nearby or can't afford to build one.
Oh, I get that. My problem a public figure telling people to head for the hills in droves instead of the individuals themselves. Tornadoes can be very unpredictable...just ask the three Twistex team members that died in the 2013 El Reno one. I'd hate to be the guy that sends dozens of people to their death because of bad advice, let alone all the potential legal action after the fact.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on September 28, 2019, 04:53:39 PM
I understand the dilemma that people face in the various places in this country. I believe that in Kansas and Oklahoma you can't dig deeper than 2 feet without hitting bedrock (no basements possible and very expensive underground bunkers). People also live in Florida, Louisiana and Texas with the threat of hurricanes. California folks have to deal with earthquakes and fires. The best you can do is prepare as safe a place as possible for your family and hope for the best. But sounding an alarm that potentially puts more people in harms way is totally irresponsible.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 28, 2019, 04:57:25 PM
Speaking of the El Reno storm, I just read this from Wiki:

Alongside rush hour traffic, thousands of residents in Oklahoma City attempted to outrun the storm by taking to the roads in an attempt to drive out of the tornado's projected path. By attempting to escape the storm by vehicle, in direct contrast to the recommended plan of action, residents put themselves at great risk from the storm; had the tornado maintained itself and passed over the congested freeways, more than 500 lives could have been lost.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on September 28, 2019, 08:36:26 PM
But many can't just pack up and leave for various reasons if they don't have a storm shelter nearby or can't afford to build one.
Oh, I get that. My problem a public figure telling people to head for the hills in droves instead of the individuals themselves. Tornadoes can be very unpredictable...just ask the three Twistex team members that died in the 2013 El Reno one. I'd hate to be the guy that sends dozens of people to their death because of bad advice, let alone all the potential legal action after the fact.
My lack of full comprehension to Notsorusty's reply #13, I now see that the El Reno tornado is the one this brain surgeon told everyone to run from...I thought it was another.
Wow....point made x2. How is this guy still employed?? :!:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on September 30, 2019, 06:28:55 PM
Had to put in the Fall thread because it is fall

It’s 87 degrees now in Redwood Falls,mn ... while it’s 57 degrees in Ortonville, mn less than 90 miles away. THAT is one heck of a temperature change.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 01, 2019, 05:54:02 AM
Very little coverage nationally covering the record September snowfall in Montana.

Here are a few record lows being reported.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 01, 2019, 06:31:21 PM
Here is the Montana summary with snowfall amounts.

https://www.weather.gov/tfx/27-30September2019Snowstorm
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on October 02, 2019, 08:31:35 AM
Not quite on the level as Montana but we did have a cold front pass thru the Chicago area this morning. 96.6 Feel Like temp at 4:30 yesterday afternoon, 58.5 this morning at 7:30 am. Quite an eye opener at the back door this morning.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: SWX on October 02, 2019, 12:11:51 PM
If the heat index reaches 100°F today, in October, I’m going to scream. Hit 120°F twice this summer.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: SWX on October 02, 2019, 06:29:48 PM
If the heat index reaches 100°F today, in October, I’m going to scream. Hit 120°F twice this summer.

101°F. Insane for October.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 03, 2019, 08:45:02 AM
Here is the Montana summary with snowfall amounts.

https://www.weather.gov/tfx/27-30September2019Snowstorm

Impressive.

You get frost this week? 37 here this morning.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 03, 2019, 08:56:58 AM
Just a little this morning. The back deck is slippery from the moisture and ice. Made it down to 33F at house and 34F at Wx station 1/2 mile east.
Shingles have a light layer so not a killing freeze.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 04, 2019, 04:56:09 PM
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S word in our forecast next week. Probably will change. That's a long ways out for accuracy.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 05, 2019, 07:26:06 AM
We also have the S-word showing in the forecast. Even a high temperature in the 30's and hard freeze coming up.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on October 05, 2019, 09:38:29 AM
Turned on the furnace this morning. 

Had the AC on last week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 05, 2019, 11:34:14 AM
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Summer's end has been a bit abrupt in many areas.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 05, 2019, 12:46:41 PM
Turned on the furnace this morning. 

Had the AC on last week.

I flipped my heat pump thermostat over to heat only now and shut the sprinklers off.  I wish I had a gas furnace instead of heat pump.
I'm still dumbfounded with their choice (previous owner) of a brand new air heat pump with electric secondary heat vs gas propane. The house was completely redone inside and out so hate to add the expense of a gas furnace and 500-gallon tank on a brand new Lennox air handler.
The cost wouldn't get recovered for years especially since the house would need gas lines brought inside about 3k, furnace 3k, tank 1k so about 7k total.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: jas340 on October 09, 2019, 07:40:49 AM
Look into getting a pellet stove. They are the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Jasiu on October 09, 2019, 10:42:05 AM
Early season nor'easter bearing down on my area. Always fun when the NWS discussion uses phrases like "Anomalous ocean storm", "a
firehose of moisture inflow", "a significant long duration wind event", and "We need to expect the unexpected".

At least it's the type of wet stuff that doesn't have to melt...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 09, 2019, 12:19:46 PM

I noticed the North Platte forecast discussion called this storm "The Great October Storm 2019".    :grin:

Snow should be ending overnight Thursday with a major storm
centered over ern ND Friday morning. This would present a slight
chance of wrap around snow across nrn Nebraska Friday. The
forecast is dry Friday night through Tuesday. The great October
storm of 2019
will lift very slowly toward Hudson Bay this weekend
and early next week. This should pull two significant high
pressure systems down from Canada. The temperature forecast Friday
through Tuesday is for below average temperatures with
subfreezing lows each night.
[/quote]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 09, 2019, 01:07:17 PM
Randy, a reminder to me that memory is not always accurate when it comes to past weather. Case in point, I though this killing freeze we have coming tomorrow was really early for us in N KS. Checked my records and discovered that a year ago on 15 Oct, a week later than now, we had accumulating snow and temps in the teens.

Termination time for the petunias here.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 09, 2019, 05:42:34 PM
Agree, I think many forget the small details me included without going back and looking at records. Our first freeze date hasn't fluctuated that much.
Airport actually froze several days earlier this year on Oct. 3rd. 
Average up here has been coming in on the 8th. The latest was 2015 Oct 16, earliest Oct 4 but airport has been earlier.

Edit: This is limited history only goes back to 2014.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on October 10, 2019, 11:45:42 PM
Thursday night, storm caught doing the Stillwater split as it approaches Stillwater, so only sprinkles here.  Storm was unusual for forming well behind a cold front that passed through around 11 am with a light shower.   As experienced in states to the north, cold front here is unusually cold for time of season.  Lows Sat. expected to be around 30-32.  Normally freezing lows don't happen until around Nov. 1.

(http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stwsplit.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on October 11, 2019, 12:07:06 AM
For an update,  the little thundershower behind the split storm stayed together and came through to the tune of 05" of rain.  A couple of rural locations to the south and southeast did better with .11" and .15". They likely benefited from the south portion of the split storm.   Freeze watch in effect until Saturday at 9 am.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stwsplit2.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 12, 2019, 08:38:09 AM
October's Bright Blue Weather

Our low this morning is 18. The forecast for the next few days reminded me of the poem we 7th grade students had to memorize way, way back in 1958 in Virginia.

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I live in Kansas, but the poem is still right on.

https://thepoetryplace.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/octobers-bright-blue-weather-by-helen-hunt-jackson/
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Greg_M on October 12, 2019, 09:12:39 AM
We hit 19.8° F at 07:38 am, Oct 11.
http://www.datilcam.com/weather/thismonth.htm (http://www.datilcam.com/weather/thismonth.htm)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 12, 2019, 10:02:47 AM
We hit 19.8° F at 07:38 am, Oct 11.
http://www.datilcam.com/weather/thismonth.htm (http://www.datilcam.com/weather/thismonth.htm)

Nice country you live in there around Datil. I was through there in August. Empty, wide open, and rugged in places. I was impressed by it.

Do you do your heavy shopping in Pie Town?   :-)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Greg_M on October 12, 2019, 10:08:31 AM
We hit 19.8° F at 07:38 am, Oct 11.
http://www.datilcam.com/weather/thismonth.htm (http://www.datilcam.com/weather/thismonth.htm)

Nice country you live in there around Datil. I was through there in August. Empty, wide open, and rugged in places. I was impressed by it.

Do you do your heavy shopping in Pie Town?   :-)

Nah, we drive all the way down to Socorro. They have a Walmart !  :grin:
For really big non mainstream stuff we drive all the way up to Albuquerque.

Amazon is our friend out here.    [tup]

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on October 12, 2019, 10:45:06 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGr0M3qVAAE9HbT?format=jpg&name=medium)

Someone posted on Facebook-Please dear friends in North Dakota....Stay safe this weekend. I do not have the money to go to 25 baby showers in July.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on October 12, 2019, 11:35:31 AM
32.1 this morning here for the lowest low, so far, this season and just .1 degree off from even freezing.  Close to half of Stillwater WU reporting stations stayed above freezing.

Meanwhile, From 83° To 13°: That Was The Second Largest Temperature Change On Record In Denver!

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2019/10/11/denver-weather-largest-day-change-on-record/ (https://denver.cbslocal.com/2019/10/11/denver-weather-largest-day-change-on-record/)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 12, 2019, 12:34:32 PM
Winds have been relentless last 3 days so no super-low temperatures. 21f at my station,  20f at the airport. Ended up with 1.5" of snow most gone today.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Jasiu on October 17, 2019, 08:06:59 AM
New England non-nor'easter..... I got 2.32" of rain and I'm very glad it was rain and not that white stuff. Barometer bottomed out at 28.74in / 973mb.  Just dealing with the wind on the back side now.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on October 17, 2019, 04:45:22 PM

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51 degree temperature range today, 8 a.m. to 3:44 p.m.  October on the Great Plains.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 17, 2019, 05:03:43 PM
Ditto!
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on October 17, 2019, 05:07:33 PM

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51 degree temperature range today, 8 a.m. to 3:44 p.m.  October on the Great Plains.
Wow. You can see how your flow aloft changed from the north from the strong NE storm to the SW from the trough digging down the west coast. Talk about screwing with your plants heads...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 17, 2019, 05:17:59 PM
Leaves are 70% on the ground just waiting for the rest so I only need to do it 1 time,  collect and mulch. Unfortunately, I have 4 different species of trees and all drop a little differently.  If it wasn't such a major expense I would remove all trees on the property. I'm not a fan of these big trees around the house and big winds from thunderstorms. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on October 17, 2019, 05:46:25 PM
The house I grew up in in northern Ohio was lined with oaks and elms. Guess who the designated leaf raker was every year? Hated the job, at the start the "blanket" was so thick you couldn't even see the grass. Acorns were a pain too. ](*,)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on October 19, 2019, 06:44:51 AM
The house I grew up in in northern Ohio was lined with oaks and elms. Guess who the designated leaf raker was every year? Hated the job, at the start the "blanket" was so thick you couldn't even see the grass. Acorns were a pain too. ](*,)
They drop twice here in Florida. The first one finished about 3 weeks ago. The next will be in finished about March. It's those tiny oak leaves. There are a gozillion million of them.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on October 19, 2019, 06:47:00 AM
One last good shot of rain this weekend with Nestor rolling through. Currently at 1 inch with more to come. Am hoping for some decent winds but don't think we'll get much.
Hello dry season and Chamber of Commerce weather for the next 6 and a half months.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 23, 2019, 09:26:13 AM
Looking more like November toward the end of 7 day.  This may go down as coolest October since I moved back to Nebraska in 2014. Currently (-4F) below norms. The average temperature this time of year Oct 23: H-61, L-32.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 23, 2019, 09:37:18 AM
This winter pattern likely to reach the Gulf Coast.
From today's forecast discussion.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: alanb on October 23, 2019, 11:27:58 AM
Not looking very promising for the Trick & Treaters (highs in the 30's, 15 MPH winds). Still a week out, so maybe it will change.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on October 24, 2019, 06:05:36 PM
It's been a cold, rainy day in much of Oklahoma, especially the southeast part closer to the slow moving cold front boundary. Chances for rain continue into Saturday, so after a dry October, so far, maybe Stillwater can get close to its October average of 3.21".

Temperatures are already around freezing in northwest Oklahoma and part of the Texas panhandle, so it has been snowing heavily there to around as much as 6", so far.  Sunday looks sunny.

 Here's a live video of weather conditions on the south side of the OSU Library:  https://stillwaterweather.com/osulibrarywx (https://stillwaterweather.com/osulibrarywx).  And a state wide look at precipitation totals:

(http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on October 26, 2019, 12:55:08 AM
A small town in northwest Oklahoma got 13" of snow for the most snow ever recorded in October for Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 29, 2019, 12:13:02 PM
11:AM and 19F (-7.2c) tonights low 10F (-12c) and it's not even Halloween yet.   #-o

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: alanb on October 29, 2019, 01:02:10 PM
Three inches of snow greeted me when I looked out the window this morning  [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on October 29, 2019, 03:53:09 PM
11:AM and 19F (-7.2c) tonights low 10F (-12c) and it's not even Halloween yet.   #-o

Exactly. I see we're starting up right were we left off in May with no spring, just like no fall this year. Just giant trough's over the west....again. ](*,)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 29, 2019, 04:24:03 PM
11:AM and 19F (-7.2c) tonights low 10F (-12c) and it's not even Halloween yet.   #-o

Exactly. I see we're starting up right were we left off in May with no spring, just like no fall this year. Just giant trough's over the west....again. ](*,)

Yeap, even the mountain out west are cold. That natural sinkhole in northern Utah near Logan called Peters Sink was setting at -35 this morning, not that it matters but that was in F.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on October 30, 2019, 07:44:31 AM
Summer hanging on down here. Getting kind of old. Heat index values still in the 95 to 100 range. Mean temp for the month is over 4 degrees warmer then climo.
A FROPA this Friday will finally cool things down. Hope it lasts.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Jasiu on October 30, 2019, 08:36:06 AM
Even up here in southern New England, I haven't had a frost or freeze yet - very odd. The kids gets showers and 60s for Halloween. Looks like we get a bit more seasonable next week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 30, 2019, 10:46:46 AM
This much cold air digging west and south this early is unusual.  If you missed out I'm sure it will come. Winter almost always starts in Montana as it did but earlier than normal this year October and migrates south and east.
Peters Sink in Utah was -45f this morning.
Balmy here at 8F. 

Link to Peters Sink: https://climate.usu.edu/PeterSinks/index.php
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Jasiu on October 30, 2019, 11:14:15 AM
Quite the upper level trough out there to blame. We're ridging in the meantime...

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: AWL on October 30, 2019, 12:00:52 PM
@ValentineWeather, how's the heat pump working out for you? In Oklahoma, much warmer than you, seems ours runs all winter.

Doug
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 30, 2019, 12:33:16 PM
@ValentineWeather, how's the heat pump working out for you? In Oklahoma, much warmer than you, seems ours runs all winter.

Doug

Funny you should ask I just did a little blog on it.
Update 10-30-19: 9° this morning windchill -1° thermostat set at 69° and still keeping up without secondary heat strips. Register temperature at 83°. Turns off for 6 minutes between cycles and runs 24 minutes. 2 cycles per hour with strips kicking on only during defrost (every 90 minutes) for 5 minutes.

So the balance point for this home is lower than 9° but still has to be more expensive compared to efficient propane furnace because it's like running the AC unit in the summer continuously after you factor in the energy used for defrost cycle.

Just how expensive won't know until the first full month of winter heating bills come in. Cheaper than an electric resistance furnace or heaters no doubt and about the same as pellets are my best guesstimate at $250 a ton. I've gone the pellet stove rout before and never again. They breakdown, storage issues, messy and uneven heating. IMO propane with a high efficient furnace (97%+) as long as it's under $1.50 gallon ($1.25 currently) is the way to go in cold climates.

Natural gas even better but not available for some really strange reason when it's so close by. I wonder who was in on the decision making of this jewel not to bring NG into Valentine? Somebody's profiting no doubt because it should have been done years ago. The coal fired Powerplants are closing due to low NG prices (not emissions) and Valentine still doesn't have it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on October 30, 2019, 12:45:44 PM
If I had the money I would love to go the geothermal route.
With a ground water temp of 72 that would be perfect year round.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 30, 2019, 12:49:36 PM
If I had the money I would love to go the geothermal route.
With a ground water temp of 72 that would be perfect year round.

Yes but so expensive. I hate to replace the heat pump because it's all brand new equipment. I'll just live with it for now but doesn't keep me from complaining.  :sad:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on October 30, 2019, 11:28:40 PM
Unusually cold today for Oklahoma City.  The cloudy 37 high beat the old coldest high of 39. It's also the 3rd coldest high fall day.  Some snow flurries.  Hard freeze warning tonight, a little early for the season.   Looks to be continued mostly below normal for the next 10 days.  It seems Fall got lost on the calendar this year. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Greg_M on October 31, 2019, 07:32:56 AM
.......and then it got cold

Low Temperature....... 8.6° F at 05:13
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 31, 2019, 07:54:42 AM
Low 5.4° F currently. Sill 1 hour before sunrise.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Greg_M on October 31, 2019, 07:58:31 AM
Yah I spoke too soon.
7.5 now and still have the sunrise dip ahead.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on October 31, 2019, 08:24:40 AM
and still 26 here. Was not a bad morning. Not real cold yet.

Also, today in History. 1991 blizzard. I was not here yet, but it is a legend
http://www.startribune.com/25-photos-that-perfectly-capture-the-halloween-blizzard-of-1991/338843092/#11

Just saw an article that places are cancelling Trick or Treating because of rain and cold. oh my.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: zackdog on October 31, 2019, 11:34:09 AM
I have 25 years worth of data for October.  Before this year, my low temperature was 0.0°F.  Yesterday's low was -7.1°F and today's was -12.2°F. 

Looks like the mean temperature for October will be about 6°F colder than my 25 year average, depending on how warm it gets today.

Mark



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 31, 2019, 12:49:03 PM
Impressive Mark to have 25 years of data that high up in the mountains. I'm sure its been an adventurous and enjoyable  25 years.
This is only 6 years of data for me and October looks to be around (-7) on mean depending on the high temp today forecast at 46f.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on October 31, 2019, 04:24:00 PM
32F for me last night. :shock: I actually just turned on the bleeping furnace. I don't normally have to do that for another month. :roll:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 01, 2019, 05:09:00 AM
October summary Well below normal with Mean temperature (40.3°), or (-8.2°) below normal, the average high was (54), low (28). Precipitation (1.52" ) was (+.27") above normal. Snowfall occurred 2 times totaling 1.8", trace amounts occurred a couple more times. Monthly extremes: high (85), low (5), with 19 days freezing or below. Note this was the coolest October by far in the 6 years of records. The warmest occurred back in 2016 with a mean temperature of 54.2° or +14° warmer than in 2019.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: zackdog on November 01, 2019, 10:07:26 AM
Well, October went into the record books as my coldest ever by 2°F, at 30.6°F.  This was 6.7° colder than my 24 year average.  High for the month was 71° on the first and the low was -12° on the 31st.  The overnight lows were below freezing every day, which isn't unusual, but there were six days that the high was below freezing.

I was gone most of the month but, by watching my snow stake time lapse videos, i was able to determine that I got approximately 24" of snow.  This is way above a normal year.  There is currently 7.5" on the ground.

Mark
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Greg_M on November 01, 2019, 10:18:19 AM
It actually hit 6.8 yesterday morning.
Nothing new for around here.
7350' in the Rockies of New Mexico.
We frequently get 40 degree swings day to night.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2019, 09:13:37 AM
North Platte NWS Forecast Office says October 2019 was the 5th coldest on record for both Valentine and North Platte. This dates back to the late 1800s.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on November 02, 2019, 11:36:47 AM
Is there a way in WL to compare mean archive data?
I have 17 years of data I want to compare.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2019, 11:52:00 AM
Yes, Wildwood has some nice scripts for comparing they work with WL, Cumulus and a separate WD version. 

https://weather.wildwoodnaturist.com/downloadsCVW.php

Here is what the summary script looks like on my site:
https://www.valentinenebraska.net/wxtempsummary.php?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 02, 2019, 11:58:07 AM
Ocala these are php scripts just noticed you didn't have a site linked.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on November 02, 2019, 11:59:01 AM
Dam, those are nice Randy!
Don't have a website though. Thought there might have been something in WL to do this.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on November 02, 2019, 01:43:21 PM
A little snow on the ground last night and this morning. Sun is not out so it is sticking for now.
still cold.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 07, 2019, 01:49:49 PM
This was tweeted out today from NWS
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 08, 2019, 01:41:52 PM
Temperature at 1:37 a.m. 10F
Temperature at 7:00 a.m. 14F
Temperature at 12:40 p.m. 55F
Temperature at 3:11 p.m.  61F

47 degree change in 8 hrs.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on November 09, 2019, 10:17:45 AM
Looks like the cool weather has finally arrived for good.
Good and bad.
No more daily thunderstorms which sucks but it also means all the snow birds start showing up down here, and not a dam one of them can drive.  :x
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 09, 2019, 11:54:37 AM
My sister in AZ says the same thing about snowbirds.  :-)

We have one more 70+ day here. Temps have been like a roller coaster here.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 09, 2019, 12:10:27 PM
One of our little perks 68 today before arctic air arrival.  Monday we will struggle to get out of teens they say but quick warm up back into the 40's, even 50's Friday so not bad at all.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 09, 2019, 04:34:05 PM
Very similar here, Randy. Got to 79 here today but upper 20s Monday and a bounce back by Wednesday.

Dry. Getting very dry.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 12, 2019, 10:53:30 AM
Minus 4 this morning. Normal is right around 25 F.

Even though my station is in its own microclimate, a station 25 miles west was minus 3 and another10 miles east, minus 1.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on November 12, 2019, 11:30:43 AM
New Chicago Area Records:

Record minimum temperature for November 11th
-Chicago: 15 in 1950   -  13
-Rockford: 10 in 1926  -  11

Record low maximum temperature for November 11th
-Chicago: 28 in 1894  -  33
-Rockford: 26 in 1986  -  32

Record minimum temperature for November 12th
-Chicago: 8 in 1986  -  7
-Rockford: 7 in 1986  -  3

Record low maximum temperature for November 12th
-Chicago: 28 in 1995  -  17
-Rockford: 27 in 1940  -  16

A lot of leaves are now frozen on the trees, maybe I'll finish raking them in the spring.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 12, 2019, 12:22:34 PM
Minus 4 this morning. Normal is right around 25 F.

Even though my station is in its own microclimate, a station 25 miles west was minus 3 and another10 miles east, minus 1.

(-4) also here in town. Airport was (-6) x2  two days in a row now. We did get 2.5 inches on Sunday.
Still hanging around this is current conditions.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 18, 2019, 11:21:24 AM
32 F at 7 a.m. and 60 F at 10 a.m. Headed for near 70 today.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 18, 2019, 06:55:25 PM
Woo-hoo! Latest guidance is in and tomorrow looks very interesting as this cut-low starts to lift NE through the area bringing a good shot at T-storms...some possibly super cellular and a FFW too boot. Then the second storm, associated with the trough and obviously with much colder air moves through Thursday-Friday with over a foot of snow in the sky islands. QPF's for the valley look at least 1.5" of rain by the weekend, that's good stuff here. =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on November 19, 2019, 05:10:07 PM
Great walking around weather in north central Oklahoma for last two days with afternoon temps in the lower to mid 70s and not too much wind.  So yesterday I walked around the lake, pictured below,  a good place for bird watching and today walked to Starbucks.  Upcoming days have a cool off, but no snow or temps getting considerably below normal.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 21, 2019, 03:35:17 PM
Local WFO/models nailed the QPF, 1.67" so far in my back yard and possibly more to come. The inside of my Stratus gauge has even fogged over, never saw that before. Speaking of, may see some fog tonight/tomorrow...hope so to give the 31 finally a good soaking.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 24, 2019, 06:12:46 PM
White Thanksgiving for some. Here is the current European model 10-day total. Even if overdone some are in for bad travel.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112412&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 24, 2019, 06:18:36 PM
White Thanksgiving for some. Here is the current European model 10-day total. Even if overdone some are in for bad travel.
This coming from myself who was voted biggest procrastinator in his senior year of high school (completely deserved as well), don't wait to the last second to get your "stuff" done. [tup]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on November 24, 2019, 06:29:04 PM
75 and sunny for Thanksgiving here.
Eh, boring weather.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 24, 2019, 08:12:19 PM
White Thanksgiving for some. Here is the current European model 10-day total. Even if overdone some are in for bad travel.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112412&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

After a dry November, now the precip/snow. Won't complain about the moisture, but don't like the timing at all.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 26, 2019, 05:01:10 PM
Boy that low/trough of the Oregon coast is really getting it's act together. Just about everyone west of the Mississippi is progged to get in on the action Thanksgiving day.

Y'all be careful now ya hear... UU

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98fndfd.gif
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on November 26, 2019, 10:12:14 PM
So-we are going to get snow tomorrow.

Schools are already cancelling classes-Even in the city. And I am wondering--why did Minnesota get so soft????????


I started teaching here in 2001. From 2001-2017 we had 1 late start and one snow day and three for -40 wind chills.
Since then we have had 4-5 days off for snow. It is embarrassing.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on November 27, 2019, 08:01:44 PM
8.5 inches today. Very wet. Plugged the snow blower.

More coming Friday into Saturday..  Maybe more Sunday..
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 30, 2019, 08:53:43 AM
I feel like we dodged a real mess this Thanksgiving, especially regarding travel. The significant snow was just 30 miles to our NW. Fog on the drive home from Nebraska was a safety concern yesterday, but it could have been much worse. High Wind Warning today, but I am not driving in it. No complaints here compared to many other areas of the country.

Kind of wondering how Randy is doing with his blizzard warning.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2019, 11:24:39 AM


Kind of wondering how Randy is doing with his blizzard warning.

 So far so good not much wind but have picked up about 6 inches of new snow.  They have a Blizzard Warning out for today but the wind hasn't materialized yet.  [tup]
Back deck:
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: AWL on November 30, 2019, 11:43:57 AM
Quote
So far so good not much wind but have picked up about 6 inches of new snow.


Since we can't seem to get any snow in Oklahoma I like to sit with my 6 year old granddaughter and check out your webcams! She loves to look at the snow. On a side note gotta love your long yellow ice removal tool  =D>  Careful on that ladder!


Doug



Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2019, 12:49:33 PM
Quote
So far so good not much wind but have picked up about 6 inches of new snow.


Since we can't seem to get any snow in Oklahoma I like to sit with my 6 year old granddaughter and check out your webcams! She loves to look at the snow. On a side note gotta love your long yellow ice removal tool  =D>  Careful on that ladder!


Doug

LOL, caught me. I was trying to get the anemometer unfroze.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 30, 2019, 01:57:13 PM
Quote
So far so good not much wind but have picked up about 6 inches of new snow.


Since we can't seem to get any snow in Oklahoma I like to sit with my 6 year old granddaughter and check out your webcams! She loves to look at the snow. On a side note gotta love your long yellow ice removal tool  =D>  Careful on that ladder!


Doug

I was trying to get the anemometer unfroze.
Since I've never had the experience, could you possibly just "hose it off" and hope it doesn't re-freeze?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on November 30, 2019, 02:38:25 PM
Quote
So far so good not much wind but have picked up about 6 inches of new snow.


Since we can't seem to get any snow in Oklahoma I like to sit with my 6 year old granddaughter and check out your webcams! She loves to look at the snow. On a side note gotta love your long yellow ice removal tool  =D>  Careful on that ladder!


Doug

I was trying to get the anemometer unfroze.
Since I've never had the experience, could you possibly just "hose it off" and hope it doesn't re-freeze?

Possibly, I've heard of using something like a super soaker. I got back up there and beat it off. Now seems to be spinning freely.
Good thing the wind has picked up blowing snow now. 
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on November 30, 2019, 02:57:49 PM
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Randy, if you can find one of these deicers on eBay, used of course, your problems might be over.  :-)

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 30, 2019, 03:01:20 PM
Quote
So far so good not much wind but have picked up about 6 inches of new snow.


Since we can't seem to get any snow in Oklahoma I like to sit with my 6 year old granddaughter and check out your webcams! She loves to look at the snow. On a side note gotta love your long yellow ice removal tool  =D>  Careful on that ladder!


Doug

I was trying to get the anemometer unfroze.
Since I've never had the experience, could you possibly just "hose it off" and hope it doesn't re-freeze?

Possibly, I've heard of using something like a super soaker.
Yes, I remember that as well. I believe using car radiator anti-freeze was also suggested.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on November 30, 2019, 03:01:45 PM
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Randy, if you can find one of these deicers on eBay, used of course, your problems might be over.  :-)
:lol: Problem solved!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on November 30, 2019, 07:17:07 PM
My anny has stopped too. Cant get to it until monday. COuld be wet snow or a drop of water frozen from the rain cap. Not the first time that happened.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 01, 2019, 08:49:46 AM
We didn't get over a foot of snow this was caused by wind.  Lots of shovel time ahead.
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Somewhere there is a sidewalk
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on December 01, 2019, 10:54:16 AM
Thanks for sharing the pictures. Were you able to measure the highest wind gust or was the anemometer still out of commission?

I measured 50 mph here, but many stations north were in the 60s. This was an impressive prolonged wind event here.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 01, 2019, 11:26:09 AM
Your welcome, the highest gust my station recorded was 46 MPH. The airport ASOS had 53 MPH. I may still have some freezing rain on one of the cups but its not unusual for the airport to record higher speeds. 

Here is what 6.4" snow I measured can do about a 5' drift on side of the house. 
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on December 01, 2019, 12:27:54 PM
A second round of heavy snow over the Thanksgiving weekend dumped more than 19 inches on Duluth, and city officials advised Sunday morning that some parts of the city were "completely impassable." Duluth and much of the North Shore remained under a blizzard warning until noon Sunday.

Duluth officials asked residents to stay off the city's main roads. Access to Duluth's Park Point neighborhood across the Aerial Lift Bridge was limited to residents only, with police checking IDs at the bridge.

The National Weather Service said more than 19 inches of snow fell in Duluth as of 6 a.m., with another 1 to 3 inches expected before the storm moves out of the region. Cloquet recorded 19.5 inches.

A portion of Interstate 35 southwest of Duluth was closed Saturday night, according to the Minnesota Department of Transportation, although MnDOT cameras showed some traffic moving Sunday morning.

City authorities are taking a no-nonsense approach to keeping people safe in the Lake Superior canal area, which remains covered by the National Weather Service's larger blizzard warning.

Wind gusts of 50 plus miles per hour whipped up huge waves Saturday on Lake Superior, causing flooding at Canal Park, and knocked down branches and power lines in some areas.


STAR TRIBUNE STAFF
 Gallery: Blizzard hits Duluth; flurries in Twin Cities
Access to Park Point in the canal area is limited Sunday to residents, and police are checking identifications at the Aerial Lift Bridge before allowing anyone to continue on, according to the latest update from city spokeswoman Kate Van Daele.

Street near the lake that remain closed because of high water include Morse, Buchanan, and the far end of Canal Park Drive, Van Daele said.

Snowplows have been out since 2 a.m. and will continue out clearing main roads and turn their attention to residential streets, she said.

"Please stay home and shelter in place until further notice," Van Daele said.

A notice posted online shortly after 10 a.m. by the city said that "main roads are plowed but need to be [reserved] for emergency vehicles and plows only. … Many areas like Canal Park are completely impassable. Most businesses are closed or have not yet opened, so again, please stay home and stay safe."

The Bentleyville holiday light display, Miller Hill Mall and the Glensheen mansion in Duluth all closed Saturday because of the weather. Duluth Transit Authority buses stopped running.

To the west in Aitkin County as of 8:30 a.m. Sunday, the Sheriff's Office reported that unplowed roads have 12 to 18 inches of snow. Roads that have been plowed are now "snow-packed, slippery and subject to drifting due to blowing snow," a Sheriff's Office statement read.

"Please continue to wait on any plans to travel today," the statement continued. "If you do go out, be sure to have an emergency kit as delays for emergencies and tows remain very long."

Across Minnesota, the State Patrol said that from 10 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Saturday, it tallied 187 crashes, with 21 injuries and no deaths. There also were 314 vehicles that spun out or left the road and three semitrailer trucks that jackknifed.

Conditions were better in the Twin Cities, where a winter weather advisory was in effect till noon Sunday, with another 1 to 3 inches of snow during the daytime amid winds gusting up to 30 mph.

By Monday, the weather in the metro should be mostly sunny but colder, with highs in the lower 20s, the Weather Service said.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on December 02, 2019, 12:54:24 PM
Is 19" an unusually high amount from a snow storm in much of Minnesota?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on December 02, 2019, 05:22:06 PM
Yes....But I believe the wind was coming off the East which is Lake Superior. 
The cold, moist  air lifted off the lake, uphill into the city  and became snow. Lake Effect Snow.
The phenomenon is not unusual for Duluth, but 19 is overboard.

(https://scontent.ffcm1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/78373237_2502691963280739_3934367064508071936_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_ohc=am7Z4IcNdf8AQlfKD_CKiH3Ub9M-xBMudTJaCIxFYRBBKFi9-0BpF19kA&_nc_ht=scontent.ffcm1-2.fna&oh=2a0321b7729a27df20e4da616a34cd48&oe=5E803711)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 02, 2019, 05:27:11 PM
Lake Effect Snow.
Everyone from Cleveland to Syracuse knows all about that stuff.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on December 03, 2019, 01:37:08 PM
Very rude awakening when you are just trying to get the morning paper from the porch! By the way, where is the porch?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on December 03, 2019, 03:54:58 PM
I knew I should have moved my snowblower into the kitchen..
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on December 04, 2019, 11:27:39 AM
The last time the Oklahoma City area had a big snow somewhat resembling the above picture was the famous Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009.   It snowed 14 inches, breaking a record set since 1890.  It was bad timing for last minute Christmas shoppers.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgR41YTaOnE[/youtube]

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on December 04, 2019, 02:07:56 PM
The last time the Oklahoma City area had a big snow somewhat resembling the above picture was the famous Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009.   It snowed 14 inches, breaking a record set since 1890.  It was bad timing for last minute Christmas shoppers.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgR41YTaOnE[/youtube]

I remember that. It was a crazy storm. Warmer here than in OK.  You had more snow. 
Some places here had 6 inches, others none.....and the distance was a few miles.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on December 06, 2019, 03:37:50 AM
The last time the Oklahoma City area had a big snow somewhat resembling the above picture was the famous Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009.   It snowed 14 inches, breaking a record set since 1890.  It was bad timing for last minute Christmas shoppers.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgR41YTaOnE[/youtube]

I remember that. It was a crazy storm. Warmer here than in OK.  You had more snow. 
Some places here had 6 inches, others none.....and the distance was a few miles.

It works similar with ice storms here.  Stillwater has dodged bad ice storms before, while a neighboring town got hard hit. A couple of out of town co-workers in hard hit areas had to put up with electricity being out for as long as a week.  There has only been one bad ice storm in Stillwater since the century began.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on December 07, 2019, 07:01:26 AM
October mean temp 76.4
November mean temp 63
That's a huge drop.
The roller coaster ride continues.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on December 07, 2019, 07:05:20 AM
Yes....But I believe the wind was coming off the East which is Lake Superior. 
The cold, moist  air lifted off the lake, uphill into the city  and became snow. Lake Effect Snow.
The phenomenon is not unusual for Duluth, but 19 is overboard.

(https://scontent.ffcm1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/78373237_2502691963280739_3934367064508071936_n.png?_nc_cat=1&_nc_ohc=am7Z4IcNdf8AQlfKD_CKiH3Ub9M-xBMudTJaCIxFYRBBKFi9-0BpF19kA&_nc_ht=scontent.ffcm1-2.fna&oh=2a0321b7729a27df20e4da616a34cd48&oe=5E803711)
Dave that's insane!
Kind of immune to that stuff down here. I heard about it but never bothered to read up on it.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 09, 2019, 03:54:56 AM
Wow, some rarefied air here for December, thunderstorms! =D>
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 21, 2019, 06:13:11 PM
43F diurnal spread today, saw 30F for the low, 73F for the high under fair skies. Ahhh, the desert...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on December 21, 2019, 07:09:21 PM
43F diurnal spread today, saw 30F for the low, 73F for the high under fair skies. Ahhh, the desert...

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 21, 2019, 07:33:45 PM
43F diurnal spread today, saw 30F for the low, 73F for the high under fair skies. Ahhh, the desert...

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.
:shock:   My reason is dry air (surprise!) and a building ridge overhead. What's your secret?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on December 22, 2019, 10:42:26 AM
43F diurnal spread today, saw 30F for the low, 73F for the high under fair skies. Ahhh, the desert...

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.
:shock:   My reason is dry air (surprise!) and a building ridge overhead. What's your secret?

Monstrous (new meteorological term) ridge primarily responsible I would say. We may be 65 today. Have to see later.

You have precip in your forecast for this week?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 22, 2019, 12:42:19 PM
Record high here is 70f 1933. Don't think it's in danger forecast says 64f we still have more snow than clear patches. I've been putting 1" snow depth on Cocorahs even though it's much deeper in areas. 


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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 22, 2019, 02:20:21 PM
43F diurnal spread today, saw 30F for the low, 73F for the high under fair skies. Ahhh, the desert...

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.
:shock:   My reason is dry air (surprise!) and a building ridge overhead. What's your secret?
You have precip in your forecast for this week?
Me and everyone else in the west. Strong/deep trough will keep things unsettled all week as multiple impulses carve through the base.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on December 22, 2019, 04:25:36 PM
47F today..
NWS said at 3000 feet it would be 74 F..

WOW!!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on December 22, 2019, 04:25:57 PM

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.

Wow,  I hardly ever see winter temp extremes like that in my part of Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 22, 2019, 04:48:16 PM
47F today..
NWS said at 3000 feet it would be 74 F..

WOW!!

Reminds me of a new show on Amazon Prime called "The Aeronauts" about ballons a female pilot and pioneering meteorologist James Glaisher.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on December 22, 2019, 04:49:04 PM
47F today..
NWS said at 3000 feet it would be 74 F..

WOW!!

Anyway to work that warmer air aloft down to the ground?  :grin:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on December 22, 2019, 04:52:49 PM

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.

Wow,  I hardly ever see winter temp extremes like that in my part of Oklahoma.

Diurnal range today 48 degrees. Low 14, high 62. RH  26%, DP 27.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 22, 2019, 05:40:18 PM
47F today..
NWS said at 3000 feet it would be 74 F..

WOW!!
Now that's an inversion!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 22, 2019, 05:42:20 PM

Ours was 48 degrees. Low 13, high 61. Way above average for this time of the year.

Wow,  I hardly ever see winter temp extremes like that in my part of Oklahoma.

Diurnal range today 48 degrees. Low 14, high 62. RH  26%, DP 27.
Without some big feature causing it, that's amazing...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on December 22, 2019, 06:13:33 PM
47F today..
NWS said at 3000 feet it would be 74 F..

WOW!!

Anyway to work that warmer air aloft down to the ground?  :grin:

That would have been awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!
Even this would not have been enough..Bigassfans.com

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/ba-en-us/includes/fans/powerfoil-x30-header.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on December 24, 2019, 01:51:17 PM
Oklahoma City is looking to have it's 2nd warmest Christmas Eve ever if 71 high holds up.  The warmest ever is 86 set in 1955.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 31, 2019, 01:03:21 PM
2 days of continuous 45 mph winds and 6" of snowfall. 

My view from the west camera. 
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And looking from street side.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on December 31, 2019, 02:38:18 PM
 Impressive snow/drifts.

 We had the liquid form, 1.52" overnight on Friday and then 2" snow on Saturday night. Really nice moisture for this place in December.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on December 31, 2019, 03:10:01 PM
We had the liquid form, 1.52" overnight on Friday
Australia could sure use some of that...and then some. :shock:

https://www.commondreams.org/sites/default/files/headlines/aus.fires_.png
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on December 31, 2019, 03:58:53 PM
Impressive snow/drifts.

 We had the liquid form, 1.52" overnight on Friday and then 2" snow on Saturday night. Really nice moisture for this place in December.

Yes really is. Winter is usually dry across the plains.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 01, 2020, 02:20:51 AM
December in Oklahoma City was dryer and warmer than usual.  2019 precip amount was well above average.
(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/okc2019.JPG)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 01, 2020, 07:04:52 AM
The December summary very different from the year came in Above normal with a Mean temperature (27.5°), or (+3.7°) above normal and warmest since at least station started 2014, the average high was (39), low (17). Precipitation (.87" ) was (+.50") above normal.
Snowfall 9". Monthly extremes: high (60), low (3), with 31 days freezing or below and 0 days below zero, also a first for December.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on January 01, 2020, 01:03:12 PM
Precipitation for December KS-PL-6
1.85" received
  .43" normal avrg

Average D, J, F monthly precipitation total 1.29". So we have already exceeded our normal winter precipitation by .56".

High temperature for the month 62F, low 10F.

Max wind gust 42mph.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: gwwilk on January 01, 2020, 07:25:28 PM
Precipitation for December 2019 was 2.6" of rain (no snow) with an average here of 1.49" since 2007.  2.52" of that fell December 27-28.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 06, 2020, 08:38:45 PM
Oklahoma City meteorologist Aaron Tuttle sees big Arctic air mass outbreak coming next week, bringing lows to single digits in Oklahoma:  https://aarontuttleweather.com/2020/01/06/wild-weather-week-ahead/?fbclid=IwAR2Al8JTqyDg67WjhAPmevL3qAWiVmYbQMau0-luFiXZXFzmpy9oAN8EtkE (https://aarontuttleweather.com/2020/01/06/wild-weather-week-ahead/?fbclid=IwAR2Al8JTqyDg67WjhAPmevL3qAWiVmYbQMau0-luFiXZXFzmpy9oAN8EtkE)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 06, 2020, 09:46:40 PM
We have a very strong cold polar vortex this year keeping the cold air around the pole. Sounds like its getting a little wobble in it which will bring the cold air south at times.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: chief-david on January 06, 2020, 10:03:39 PM
A dip here this week. low of 0 Wednesday and Friday nights with a bit of a roller coaster in between.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on January 06, 2020, 11:15:11 PM
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Our Hastings NWS is pretty good about looking ahead. This is from 3 January.

(I originally had placed this in another thread and hope I did not breach forum etiquette in doing so.)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 08, 2020, 07:37:39 AM
Our balmy January is ending  The Canadian model GDPS latest run 00z is the coldest next Thursday morning. Here is the national look.
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 08, 2020, 11:43:51 AM
 I wonder how much of Oklahoma will be below zero on Friday morning.  Hopefully, it's the most out there model.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 09, 2020, 08:14:13 PM
The developing weather situation has become more definite to the NWS, so a couple of storm watches have been issued for Oklahoma starting Friday. One is for northern Oklahoma with a winter storm watch, which includes Stillwater. Total snow accumulations up to 4 inches and ice
accumulations of a light glaze possible. Higher snow totals possible near the Kansas border.

The other one for eastern and southeastern Oklahoma with a flash flood watch, which includes Tulsa. NWS says residents of the area should expect widespread, heavy rainfall in the 2 to 4 inch range, with locally heavier amounts possible.  The storms will “train” north to south, meteorologists say, meaning they'll continue to develop and pour rain repeatedly over the same areas.  Oklahoma City is not affected by either watch, so far.  It will be interesting to see how heavy the snow gets in states to the north and northeast.

Oklahoma City's low of 52 on Thursday morning is a record high low.

(https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 10, 2020, 01:58:47 PM
Weather developing crazier.  Stillwater may get as much as 7.1" of snow by Sunday. For now there is a tornado watch out until 6pm Friday.  It covers the eastern half of Oklahoma.  Fortunately, it's believed that the likelihood for tornadoes and flash flooding will peak out in southeast Oklahoma.  Highs are expected to bounce back to near 60 as soon as Monday.  What a roller coaster ride for the weather even for winter.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snowjan12-2020.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 10, 2020, 05:06:37 PM
Tornado watch canceled here but a winter storm advisory just issued.  It covers better than the western half of Oklahoma:

Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
1 to 3 inches and a glaze of ice. Higher snowfall amounts are
possible in and around Ponca City and Stillwater.
* WHERE...Portions of northern Oklahoma.
* WHEN...Until noon CST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts behind a cold front will gusts over
40 mph tonight.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slick roads
and areas of blowing snow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 11, 2020, 04:13:06 PM
It snowed around an inch in Stillwater Saturday morning  as pictured well under projected models.  Things started out before dawn as a glaze of ice followed by a layer of snow made easier to drive on.  It later turned to slush, which as of shortly after noon had mostly evaporated off.   It snowed more in counties to the north.

As was done last year the head of Stillwater Emergency Management, Ron Hill, made an hour and a half plus live Facebook video tour of the the major streets of stillwater  starting out when the icing of Highway 177 south of town began.  A couple of interesting points:  24:00-  A stop at Stillwater Regional Airport to see the new spray equipment to deice the runway.  The flight to Dallas-Ft. Worth was made good to go.  1:09 - recap and drive through Hall of Fame Ave. on OSU's north side.  https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/579017102830615/

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snow1-11-2020.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 12, 2020, 02:09:06 PM
At least the TV weather people were right in that biggest rain amounts would be in southeast Oklahoma.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainamountsjan2020.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 15, 2020, 11:18:41 AM
Okay, no ice or snow with the latest system for my area, unlike the previous one.  I'll take it.  Projected rain amount may be around an inch.

(https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/83096704_2892989920721916_6346415316347650048_o.png?_nc_cat=100&_nc_ohc=fFRR48sLGxQAX9Tb-V2&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&oh=a1a6895ef213edbfefa6f76dd305943d&oe=5E95D826)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 15, 2020, 11:26:34 AM
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 15, 2020, 11:41:17 AM
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on January 15, 2020, 12:06:53 PM
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.

Just how closely are NWS forecasters held to these models? When they vary in their analysis, how much do they have to justify? (Question I have wanted to ask NWS but did not want to step over a line.)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on January 15, 2020, 03:05:16 PM
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.
My WFO usually tends to lean on the Euro as well.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on January 15, 2020, 03:11:22 PM
Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER:  It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Yes, good answer but I'll add little more for forecasters especially mid-west just ignore the GFS especially beyond  3 days and put more reliance on what the ECMWF (Euro) says and the forecast will turn out much better.  Maybe not as exciting but you won't let the people down as often with a blown forecast.

Just how closely are NWS forecasters held to these models?
Technically they're not, but models are the way it's "done" nowadays. The forecaster uses his or her skill/experience to determine which if any model(s) is more "correct" than the other. Most often a blend is used unless one or more are determined to be out in left field.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 15, 2020, 04:27:22 PM
I posted this somewhere before the ECMWF is now available to the public. They are asking for donations to keep free.  It really does do a good job in my area, my main beef sometimes it overdoes snowfall and precip in general but its great at advertising where it will occur correctly before other models.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019110300&fh=loop&r=us_nc&dpdt=&mc=
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Farmtalk on January 16, 2020, 05:41:59 AM
The NWS folks over in my area (Charleston) tend to blend models more than pick one individual model out. I work pretty closely with them being in TV weather - I tend to put a lot of focus on micro-climates as well, since we have several in the Appalachians. For example, models tend to usually overestimate snow in the lowlands in West Virginia, but an inverted trough with southern storms almost always 'warm wedges' us to where temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than model guidances - and thus little to no snow. The NWS does this quite a bit too as well in my region.

There's no doubt that the Euro is the better model, but I would be wary of using any one particular model for anything really. I look at as much data (both current and model) both at the surface and especially in the upper levels as possible, and I still use programs like Bufkit to get a better understanding of the atmosphere so that all the puzzle pieces fit when I'm trying to explain the forecast to the public on TV.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on January 16, 2020, 08:22:01 AM
Farmtalk, I have a strong feeling that NWS forecasters who know their region and model shortcomings and strengths would do what you do.

Thanks for the reply
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Farmtalk on January 16, 2020, 11:42:11 AM
I definitely love my analysis! I do at least a surface hand analysis every day - I do some upper air ones as well with time permitting. A lot of radio obligations, web work, etc. makes it tough sometimes, but I like to stay busy. Pretty impressive pressure gradient this morning is making for some gusty winds in the mid-atlantic area. A few wind advisories are up! 8-)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on January 16, 2020, 04:41:27 PM
What I'm talking about is some will start talking about a snowstorm 6 days out based on the GFS.  From my own model watching experience if the Euro isn't on the same page it's not even worth mentioning because it won't happen.  I have no problem with model blending.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 16, 2020, 11:25:24 PM
Stillwater barely staying out of the freezing rain line tonight.  Fortunately, temperature expected to remain above freezing for the rest of the night. But the northwest quarter of the state isn't as fortunate.  I-40 a little to the west of Oklahoma City is slick and hazardous with a multi pile up near Weatherford.  In Stillwater, as much as 1.5" of rain is forecast before it ends Friday afternoon.  That a good cold rain for a January.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 18, 2020, 12:27:16 AM
The midsection of Oklahoma, centered along the I-44 corridor,  got generous amounts of cold rain on Jan. 16 and 17.   All three metros got over an inch.  1.22" fell here.  10 miles south of here got 1.74"  More rain is in the forecast later this month.  Winter remains drought free here.   

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainjan17-2020.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 27, 2020, 04:33:40 AM
With help from models, meteorologist Aaron Tuttle discusses how much snow Oklahoma may get on Tuesday: https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/2652516631701569/?notif_id=1580095720609056&notif_t=live_video_explicit (https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/videos/2652516631701569/?notif_id=1580095720609056&notif_t=live_video_explicit)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on January 29, 2020, 02:39:51 PM
Will the sun ever shine again??  Chicago area NWS report from this morning:

Through Saturday...

Persistence appears to be the way to go with the forecast. Broad
upper trough over the region with subtle/weak shortwave troughs
rippling through the area at somewhat regular interval. Each
trough looks to be lacking moisture and likely only providing some
modest ascent. Our CWA looks to be close to smack dab in the
middle of a persistent stratus deck that looks like it covers at
least 25% of the Lower 48. No indication that anything will result
in clearing out of this stratus through Saturday with minimal
subsidence and negligible advection.

We last saw the sun on Jan 21st.    :-(
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on January 29, 2020, 07:36:29 PM
NWS Forecast Discussions seem to be having a glitch. Many have not been updated since this morning, and those that have been updated have a different type font/appearance
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on January 29, 2020, 07:44:08 PM
NWS Forecast Discussions seem to be having a glitch. Many have not been updated since this morning, and those that have been updated have a different type font/appearance
I actually noticed it yesterday and called my WFO and she was clueless. It appears (at least for me) the link has changed. Here's my new link, whether it helps you navigate to yours happily... :?:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=afdtwc&wfo=twc&new
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: BKS97 on January 31, 2020, 01:26:54 PM

Today marks our tenth consecutive day of complete cloud cover with daytime temperatures in the 20s.  Earlier this week the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources posted this comment in its Climate Journal:

“Weather in January can range from clear and crisp to cloudy and gloomy. January 2020 is following the latter. So far though January 27, January 2020 has had the least amount of solar radiation for a January since solar radiation records began at the U of M St. Paul Campus Climate Observatory in 1963.”

A year ago in these parts our days were mostly sunny — but daytime temperatures sometimes failed to make it above zero.  On the morning of Jan. 31 - exactly one year ago — my weather station display at Hackensack showed a temperature of -47 F.  The sky was clear and the wind calm.

Given the choice of these extremes — cloudy, gloomy and relatively mild vs. sunny, calm and frigid — I’d gladly settle for something in between.  The good news is that the forecast for this weekend may bring us just that — highs in the upper 30s and low 40s along with some peeks of sunshine!
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on January 31, 2020, 11:33:45 PM
For here, I don't think the weather has been any more cloudy and gloomy than usual, even though it rained more than usual at 2.83".  Normal is 1. 3" and normally the driest month.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Notsorusty on February 01, 2020, 01:33:39 PM
An unidentified extremely bright object was spotted in the sky over Chicago this morning. The authorities have been notified!

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

But it is gone now.   :-(   It was last seen 9 days agol
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ocala on February 01, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
Been winter like down here the past couple weeks. 60/40.
Although, the NWS  did schedule an 80 for this Wednesday with some possible severe weather for Thursday.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on February 04, 2020, 01:42:36 PM
Winter storm warning diagnally through the middle of Oklahoma until Thursday.  All three metros in it.  Snow totals 4-6" with more in the southwest.

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snowfeb2020.jpg)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on February 04, 2020, 02:36:34 PM
He calls it a nightmare to forecast, but OKC meteorologist Aaron Tuttle on Twitter sees more of a sleet/freezing rain mix Wednesday morning, meaning less snow, but still enough to count.  But as one response put it, "Are we inching toward a non-event?" ha, ha.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on February 04, 2020, 04:40:23 PM
Cold sunshine today, barely made it into the 50's. Certain recipe tonight for the coldest night of the season, no clouds, no wind, crashing dew points. Looking at mid 20's tonight...maybe even colder. Gotta remember to drip the ole spigot...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: Bunty on February 05, 2020, 12:55:40 PM
Winter scene Wed. morning at OSU library in Stillwater.    Around 4 in. of snow fell. Classes canceled.   Projected amount of snow wasn't off.  Tickets to tonight's OSU vs TCU(Texas Christian University) basketball game will be free. Go Cowboys!

Oklahoma City officially had 4.6", which beat the daily record of 2.3".   Click for live scene at OSU library:  https://stillwaterweather.com/osulibrarywebcam (https://stillwaterweather.com/osulibrarywebcam)

(https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/osulibrary2.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 12, 2020, 05:33:57 PM
Been a rather ho-hum winter with nothing much to write home about. 25" of snow so far.
Windchill expected in the -20 to -25 range tonight as we drop below zero.
Currently sunny this afternoon with WC at  -9F (-23C)
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 13, 2020, 05:40:58 AM
WC in the -20 range hasn't occurred. At 4:40 AM (-9)F but no wind, it's dead calm so WC  also (-9)
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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: zackdog on February 19, 2020, 08:11:02 PM
February hasn't been real cold, but the snow has been terrible.  I've been keeping track of snowfall since 2007.  Average for the month is 20.5", lowest 8.5", and highest 30.0".  So far this February I have had 46.5" with 10 days left in the month.  Hoping it lets up soon.

Mark
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on February 25, 2020, 09:38:10 AM
A nice 8.9" snowfall after midnight this morning. This was a narrow and intense band that we just happened to be under. Moisture .54"
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 25, 2020, 09:42:53 AM
Sweet  [tup] :grin:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: DRoberts on February 27, 2020, 09:25:08 AM
Sharing meso band satellite photo that dumped 8.9" on us Tuesday morning in the space of a few hours. The band was 10-15 miles wide. Sharp gradient to say the least.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: BKS97 on February 28, 2020, 08:29:14 AM
With the prospect of temperatures in the 40s this weekend and spring training under way down south, the NWS-Twin Cities office picked the perfect graphic for today’s Weather Story.

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Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: BKS97 on February 28, 2020, 12:43:08 PM
Sharing meso band satellite photo that dumped 8.9" on us Tuesday morning in the space of a few hours. The band was 10-15 miles wide. Sharp gradient to say the least.

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The Washington Post has this story about the event today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/27/bizarre-snow-strip-over-kansas-just-15-miles-across-highlights-challenges-forecasting/?itid=hp_ed-picks_cwg-snow-0227%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on February 28, 2020, 02:46:56 PM
Sharing meso band satellite photo that dumped 8.9" on us Tuesday morning in the space of a few hours. The band was 10-15 miles wide. Sharp gradient to say the least.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]

The Washington Post has this story about the event today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/27/bizarre-snow-strip-over-kansas-just-15-miles-across-highlights-challenges-forecasting/?itid=hp_ed-picks_cwg-snow-0227%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
:shock: :shock: :shock: And they didn't blame Trump for it! :shock: :shock: :shock:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 28, 2020, 06:13:26 PM
Strange event indeed.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: ValentineWeather on February 28, 2020, 06:16:57 PM
If you can't stomach the WP here is another article

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2020-02-27-kansas-snow-stripe-seen-from-airplane-satellites
Title: Re: Fall/Winter '19/'20
Post by: CW2274 on February 28, 2020, 06:40:40 PM
Someone mentioned a few months back why a snow forecast can be such a PITA to get right, I tried to explain best as a somewhat educated novice could. Albeit not an everyday event, this rather showcases it.