Topic: Fall/Winter 2022

[CW2274]

We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS.  And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.

This probably doesn't help build confidence, either. You're very lonely on this total 1-7 day QPF. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1670627599

[ValentineWeather]

NWS North Platte
@NWSNorthPlatte
·
9m
An intense winter storm will develop across eastern Colorado on Monday and track slowly northeast into western Iowa by Wednesday. This will bring the potential for heavy snow, high winds, rain, and the possibility of freezing rain or sleet to western and north central NE. #NEwx
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[DRoberts]

We are on the other end of that "doozy", Randy, in NW KS.  And if you are looking at a big storm next week, it must mean the path is shifting north. Out of luck again. Very, very dry here.

This probably doesn't help build confidence, either. You're very lonely on this total 1-7 day QPF. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1670627599

We are on an extended dry or drought period in most of western KS. Hard to break out of the pattern, as you know.

[DRoberts]

NWS North Platte
@NWSNorthPlatte
·
9m
An intense winter storm will develop across eastern Colorado on Monday and track slowly northeast into western Iowa by Wednesday. This will bring the potential for heavy snow, high winds, rain, and the possibility of freezing rain or sleet to western and north central NE. #NEw

Got your bulldozer ready, Randy?

[ValentineWeather]

Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.

[ocala]

Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.

Sounds like me when tracking tropical storms. 

[DRoberts]

Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.

Got the blizzard warnings up for you I see.

[ValentineWeather]

Starting to look like Valentine may be spared with only 7" of snow but still, 60 mph gusts are possible. This is just me looking at models nothing official. The ECMWF keeps us in rain during the bulk of moisture (.84") out of (1.5" total) and the latest HRRR is supporting this idea. Other models differ so not absolute. Almost 16 hours of difference with models whether rain or snow will make a world of difference in storm impact.

Got the blizzard warnings up for you I see.

For western Cherry, not here on the east side yet. They did say they may have to expand the blizzard warning.

[CW2274]

Time of the year with colder storms, as I pay more attention to the dew point than ambient temp.

[ValentineWeather]

Well, they updated the snowfall potential map ...12" for Valentine now.  This might get interesting after all with 55 mph wind gusts. This is very unusual to have this kind of moisture 1.5" plus for December here. Spring storms are where this normally happens once or twice a decade. And now it's looking like next week -20 below and single-digit highs so this snow isn't going anywhere soon.

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[gwwilk]

It looks like some ice may be in store for you as well, Randy.  Stay warm and safe!

So far southeast Nebraska is looking at rain only in our forecast.  I hope they're right!

[ValentineWeather]

It looks like some ice may be in store for you as well, Randy.  Stay warm and safe!

So far southeast Nebraska is looking at rain only in our forecast.  I hope they're right!

Thanks, checking in and looks like the bulk today has moved through but this goes on through Thursday so more to come.
10" so far my snow stake cam image I'll post. I actually measure officially off a snowboard. The snow stake started with 1.7" from previous snow. One thing I'm seeing is 9:1 so it's wet and heavy so far. Expect as the storm progresses and it gets more arctic air mixed in this 9:1 will be 14:1 or so. You can surely build the depth fast if that occurs but also blows easily with the wind. They are still saying 55 mph gust once the artic air comes in. Today very light 9-15 mph so what you see is very accurate.

[DRoberts]

Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.

[ValentineWeather]

Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.

What a mess today, with the wind.

[ocala]

55 mph when artic air moves in
Pardon me but ef that!
 

[DRoberts]

Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.

What a mess today, with the wind.

I bet it is. What was the total snowfall at your station, or did I miss that post?

We stayed dry, only .24" liquid, for the whole storm system. Wind gusted 40-45 numerous times. Don't remember the last time temperatures fell during the day with a south wind 20-35 mph. Yesterday started at 50 F at 6:00 a.m. and fell into the 30s by dusk.

[ValentineWeather]

Nice moisture, Randy. At least there is that.

What a mess today, with the wind.

I bet it is. What was the total snowfall at your station, or did I miss that post?

We stayed dry, only .24" liquid, for the whole storm system. Wind gusted 40-45 numerous times. Don't remember the last time temperatures fell during the day with a south wind 20-35 mph. Yesterday started at 50 F at 6:00 a.m. and fell into the 30s by dusk.

10.3" new snow here was what I recorded we had 2" leftover from the prior storm. NWS reported the same.  It actually was a heavy nice snow not a whole lot of wind during the snowfall. (9: 1) snow you wouldn't know it now the wind has drifted it everywhere. All roads are closed in and out. Travel at your own risk.

[ValentineWeather]

55 mph when artic air moves in
Pardon me but ef that!
 

Sick of winter already, it's fun at first but gets old.

[CW2274]

55 mph when artic air moves in
Pardon me but ef that!
 

Sick of winter already, it's fun at first but gets old.

I haven't found winter fun in three decades. Still don't.

[Otis]

Northern Lower Peninsula, Michigan.  Lived in interior Alaska for 18 years too.  I like winter but usually "done" by late January, this year I'm already there - or here as the case may be.

We had an early lake effect event with right around 2 feet of snow, way to early for that.  Most has melted but it threw off our (dogs and mine) walking routine.  Ah the struggles of being retired 



Edit: added image

[chief-david]

55 mph when artic air moves in
Pardon me but ef that!
 

Our fireplace is not working. 

[CW2274]

55 mph when artic air moves in
Pardon me but ef that!
 

Our fireplace is not working. 

Chief, how does one "break" ones fireplace?

[ValentineWeather]

64 mph gust today.

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[ocala]

Randy what was the chill temp with that gust?

[ValentineWeather]

Randy what was the chill temp with that gust?

IDK it was 18° the windchill is figured off of sustained wind I believe. We are running negative single digits today for WC.