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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: Hurricane Weather Investigation Experiment on June 01, 2017, 09:44:18 AM
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Today begins the hurricane season with a number of 12 storms, six hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes according to data from the National Hurricane Center. It should be noted that hurricane season can be normal or out of normal all depending on the development of the El Niño phenomenon.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png)
According to experts
ENSO-neutral persisted during April, with near-average sea surface temperatures (ssts) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average ssts in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest child index values were + 0.5 ° C in the child-3 and child-3.4 regions, and + 0.3 and + 0.8 ° C in the child-4 and child-1 + 2 regions, respectively [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was slightly positive during April [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average temperatures at depth around the date line [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection anomalies were weak over the central tropical Pacific and maritime continent [Fig. 5], while the lower-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.
Most models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average child-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5 ° C) during the northern hemisphere summer [fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the statistical models are more conservative and indicate that while child-3.4 index may be near or greater than + 0.5 ° C for several months, the warmth may not last long enough to qualify as an El Niño episode (5 consecutive overlapping seasons) and/or may not significantly impact the atmospheric circulation. Relative to last month, the forecaster consensus reflects slightly lower chances of El Niño (~ 45%), in part due to the conflicting model guidance and lack of a clear shift towards El Niño in the observational data. In summary, while chances are slightly lower than 50%, ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favoured during the northern hemisphere summer and Fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
(http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif)
HAVE A GOOD HURRICANE SEASON
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Just added seasonal Tropical Weather Outlook Audio Stream from NHC
NOAA Weather Radio ORG (http://noaaweatherradio.org)
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Think you could have come up with a longer User ID?
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Think you could have come up with a longer User ID?
Priceless! =D>
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Looks like my home town (Houston) might be in for a rough weekend with Harvey. I am located 30 miles north downtown.
We got flooded out with Allison but moved to 'much' higher ground after that. Will keep you posted.
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Stay Safe!
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That storm has the potential to do some real damage.
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@Ocala, I see you are also getting lots of rain there in Florida.
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The WPC is showing roughly 10-15" as a forecast right now. The GFS is showing much higher, and boy, I hope it is wrong for you all in eastern Texas. Hopefully Harvey gets off the brakes when it makes landfall.
I got wiped out with about 8" of rain in a valley (That's a 250 year flood for us). I can't imagine what 40" of rain would be like.
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WOW! I'll be getting direct reports most of family is now living suburbs of Houston.
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The pucker factor for these millions of folks must be getting off the charts....
NHC quote:
3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday.
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Looks like my home town (Houston) might be in for a rough weekend with Harvey. I am located 30 miles north downtown.
We got flooded out with Allison but moved to 'much' higher ground after that. Will keep you posted.
Know that area well...I lived just south of Spring at North Fwy and FM1960 for a couple of years before I moved back to Oklahoma. I lived there during the Andrew scare when the track of the storm wasn't exactly known after crushing southern Florida. Stay safe.
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Unfortunately, forecast outlooks are not looking better for the people of southeast Texas :-(
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Problem with those rain forecasts is that some of those rain gauges could be under 10 ft of water.
This is shaping up to be a truly epic flood event.
Hope I'm wrong.
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Just spoke to brother in Humble outside Houston. Not really worried but does have spare gas and water on hand just incase and was going to pickup a cheap rain gauge at walmart. Told him to get one that held the most rain possible and he still may need to dump it several times before it's over. I'll have him into getting a weather station soon. :-)
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Just spoke to brother in Humble outside Houston. Not really worried but does have spare gas and water on hand just incase and was going to pickup a cheap rain gauge at walmart. Told him to get one that held the most rain possible and he still may need to dump it several times before it's over. I'll have him into getting a weather station soon. :-)
Jeez Randy, just have him pick up a CoCo gauge, but quickly. It's certainly something he'll keep when he gets his PWS, instead of a POS from Walmart.
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Just spoke to brother in Humble outside Houston. Not really worried but does have spare gas and water on hand just incase and was going to pickup a cheap rain gauge at walmart. Told him to get one that held the most rain possible and he still may need to dump it several times before it's over. I'll have him into getting a weather station soon. :-)
Jeez Randy, just have him pick up a CoCo gauge, but quickly. It's certainly something he'll keep when he gets his PWS, instead of a POS from Walmart.
Probably need to order one. He told me he was going to put a bucket out in middle of yard so I mentioned the $3 dollar walmart gauges. :grin:
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Just spoke to brother in Humble outside Houston. Not really worried but does have spare gas and water on hand just incase and was going to pickup a cheap rain gauge at walmart. Told him to get one that held the most rain possible and he still may need to dump it several times before it's over. I'll have him into getting a weather station soon. :-)
I lived three years in the 90s fairly close to Humble (had a Houston address but lived just south of Spring) and when I did live there it was during the time we had the Andrew scare. The Galveston City Manager was excoriated for calling for an evacuation when nothing wound up happening. The forecasts had it coming right into High Island (just east of Galveston). The CM said he didn't care what people thought..he erred on the side of caution. I remember that week and the run on batteries, bottled water and flashlights as well as non-perishable food items. As a transplant, my then-wife and I had already made up a 'survival kit' so we were ready. It was essentially the same survival kit we made for tornado season in Oklahoma.
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On the bottled water thing. Why do people run out and buy it for preparations?
I keep milk jugs and juice bottles and a few others in different sizes. I can fill those with tap water if I feel the need and have several gallons on hand in a matter of minutes. Less landfill waste too.
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Good idea, biggest problem brother mentioned is a few will hoard the shelves even gas stations run out which leaves others short on supplies. Best to have supplies ready at home and not rely on stores at last moment.
He has 3000 watt generator also along with couple enduro motorcycles he claims is necessary if they actually needed to exit Houston because highways are impassable with gridlock.
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This is shaping up to be quite a storm. Certainly thinking of all the people in Texas now. Thoughts and prayers.
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This station is live for now, Rapid Fire from Aransas Pass, Tx.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXARANS3
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Here's PWS reporting: Rain gauge damaged by storm. Wind data still accurate as of 4:30 PM 8/25
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXPORTA23
Another rapid fire station
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXPORTL27#history
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Semantics at this point, now a Cat 4.
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WOW on ABC news. Maybe scare tactics to make people leave.
"We’re suggesting if people are going to stay here, mark their arm with a Sharpie pen with their name and Social Security number," Rockport Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Rios said at a news conference this morning.
"We hate to talk about things like that," he said. "It's not something we like to do but it’s the reality, people don’t listen."
So far, none event here, .18" rain. Looks like we are in for it Saturday, Sunday.
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Maybe scare tactics to make people leave.
Little late for that...
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3 News Corpus Christi has been streaming live:
http://www.kiiitv.com/news/live_breaking/kiii-breaking-news/280701833
Landfall, and probably worst damage was just NE, Rockport. Aransas Pass got hit pretty hard too.
(old stomping grounds too many years back)
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Here is the Rockport Wx station where eye is currently. Looks like anemometer broke.
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=RCPT2&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
METEOROLOGICAL SITE AT COPANO BAY NEAR ROCKPORT 8NNE 117mph before going down.
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=MAXT2
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3 News Corpus Christi has been streaming live:
http://www.kiiitv.com/news/live_breaking/kiii-breaking-news/280701833
Landfall, and probably worst damage was just NE, Rockport. Aransas Pass got hit pretty hard too.
(old stomping grounds too many years back)
We spend all of March in Rockport-Fulton. Sad they took a direct hit... :-(
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Current rain rate
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Wow! Hang in there.
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Day 2 of heavy rains. Yesterday 7.9"
This is where we are now since midnight.
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My brother never did find a rain gauge they were sold out all over his area of town. Tried 4 different stores not even couple Walmarts had one.
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A friend tried to buy a generator, sold out in a 100 mile radius at all stores. Even the larger, expensive ones.
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CoCoRaHS rainfall totals are really starting to ramp up. The Santa Fe record second from the top picked up 19.3" yesterday. :-(
Prayers for everybody down in southeast Texas.
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Day 2 of heavy rains. Yesterday 7.9"
This is where we are now since midnight.
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Do you have a cocorahs gauge?
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My brother never did find a rain gauge they were sold out all over his area of town. Tried 4 different stores not even couple Walmarts had one.
Should have told him to grab piece of 4" PVC.
Chris did some testing on them a while back and it was pretty close to the coco gauge.
Meaning, pouring out what's in there and measure with the smaller tube.
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What was the lowest barometer pressure readings recorded as the storm passed over them?
So far, for my cousin in Sugarland SW of Houston, 29.63 in at 6:08 PM on 24 August 2017. Right now, it's 29.70 in and falling @ 0.02 in/hr, so he might go lower.
His website, http://www.calsage.com/sgweather/index.htm
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What was the lowest barometer pressure readings recorded as the storm passed over them?
So far, for my cousin in Sugarland SW of Houston, 29.63 in at 6:08 PM on 24 August 2017. Right now, it's 29.70 in and falling @ 0.02 in/hr, so he might go lower.
His website, http://www.calsage.com/sgweather/index.htm
The storm has lost it's intensity, certainly not it's ability to rain prodigiously, so these pressures are very pedestrian. We get that low here in the summer just from the thermal low that's generally over the Yuma area with completely sunny skies, bone dry dews, and hot temps.
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the definition of a hurricane (i.e naming what that is forming) is concentric gales around the center (and being warm core)
you can get that in the tropics from a relatively shallow baro reading at the center (e.g 995, where the normal barometer reading around it might be say 1015)
what's its over land, the windspeed needs to drop below hurricane force (average) to be renamed a tropical depression
once it looses its hurricane rainbands wrapped around the center, then it becomes ex tropical (and then transforms into a mid lattitude depression (where rain band arms (one of which is stalled over Houston (which has a problem))
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Do you have a cocorahs gauge?
Sadly no, but I have one on order now. :-)
Although I have been interested in weather for some years, I only recently got more involved.
I started a few years ago with a basic offline La Cross and when it failed, my family banded together and gave me the WS-1200-ip for Christmas. About a month ago I got a TPLink and flashed with Meteobridge. Yep, still a greenhorn.
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I see its drifting back over the ocean
could mean it regains some strength
and means more rain..as per forecast for biblical rain totals
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One weather guy said to put it in perspective for those not familiar with Texas:
"If Harvey came onshore at New York, it would have flooded all the way up to Boston"
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what tends to happen is that those big warm gulf water fueled rain bands , create lower pressure and also friction for the rotation (think of conservation of angular momentum)
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Once the clouds begin to clear, I'd be interested in seeing any wide area aerial/satellite photos that might show the flood water boundaries. Google Earth missed our big record flood by just a few days. You can still see some high water, but no where near the full extent. I had close to 2' of water in parts of my property and I'm about a mile from the nearest river and probably 20' above it.
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Rainfall totals are closing in on what I receive in a year (~44") :shock:
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Rainfall totals are closing in on what I receive in a year (~44") :shock:
One year? Try four here. :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:
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7am today nearby cocorahs reports next to brother 24.3" in NE houston sub, daughter in League City off HW going to Galveston was 28". This doesn't count today's rain.
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Cocorahs 41.67" near daughters place.
8/29/2017 7:00 AM TX-HRR-28 Webster 0.4 NW 13.80
8/28/2017 7:00 AM TX-HRR-28 Webster 0.4 NW 6.37
8/27/2017 7:00 AM TX-HRR-28 Webster 0.4 NW 17.00
8/26/2017 8:30 AM TX-HRR-28 Webster 0.4 NW 4.57
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Just amazing. And I know New Orleans is getting hit with some rain as well as parts of Louisiana.