Topic: Moderate risk for my area 5-18-13

[BigOkie]

It appears that the same area is under the gun yet again today.





Tornado touchdown last night about 10 miles SE of me.  Passed right over my brother's house as a wall cloud; we used Google Hangouts to video chat so he could show me.  Pretty impressive.  It appears to have hit an industrial park near SH51 and the Creek Turnpike, and preliminary reports suggest damage of EF0 to EF1.  I've yet to hear of any injuries or fatalities, and hope it stays that way.

Here's a photo someone sent to a local TV station.  There are many more I've seen.

[BigOkie]

Looks like a PDS Tornado Watch to go up shortly for most of Oklahoma.  Everyone, please keep your eyes to the skies and have your preferred modes of alert (be it an app, weather radio or whatever) handy.

ACUS11 KWNS 311940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311940
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-312115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311940Z - 312115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN
21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN
TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION  BY 21Z.

STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL
PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION
NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509892 36819772 37049678 36819572 36389547 35649568
            34839630 34029749 33909847 34119909 35509892


EDIT:  and there it is:

WOUS64 KWNS 312024
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

TORNADO WATCH 262 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC011-015-017-019-027-031-033-035-037-047-049-051-063-067-071-
073-081-083-087-097-099-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-123-
125-131-133-137-143-145-147-010500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0262.130531T2030Z-130601T0500Z/

OK
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAINE               CADDO               CANADIAN
CARTER               CLEVELAND           COMANCHE
COTTON               CRAIG               CREEK
GARFIELD             GARVIN              GRADY
HUGHES               JEFFERSON           KAY
KINGFISHER           LINCOLN             LOGAN
MAYES                MCCLAIN             MURRAY
NOBLE                NOWATA              OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA             OKMULGEE            OSAGE
OTTAWA               PAWNEE              PAYNE
PONTOTOC             POTTAWATOMIE        ROGERS
SEMINOLE             STEPHENS            TULSA
WAGONER              WASHINGTON
$$


ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

[Farmtalk]

SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
       GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...

   DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
   IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG A WEAK
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK.  DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES
   ARE POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
   THROUGH THE EVENING.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.

I'll be praying that everything works out alright. Looks like it's gonna be a rough night ahead.

[Farmtalk]

Storms near Kingfisher are really blowing up. Some of the fastest building storms I've ever seen. 30 minutes ago it was a sprinkle, now it's dropping 3 inch hail!

[Farmtalk]

Is anyone hearing about this? Another AWFUL tornado is about to hit Oklahoma City; one of the tornado chaser vehicles was thrown 200 yds near El Reno, but they were ok. Prayers for all affected.

[BigOkie]

I believe this is the one you are talking about.  Debris ball evident in the ZDR volume scan on the bottom left.  What a week...

[chief-david]

Listening to KFOR now-unbelievable.


The Weather Channel Tornado Hunt Team is safe, but shaken up after their chase vehicles took a direct hit by a violent tornado west of Oklahoma City.
 
(TRACK IT: Maps, Radar & More)
 
Meteorologist Mike Bettes was chasing the monster rain-wrapped tornado near El Reno, Okla. when he says the storm picked up the heavy chase SUV and threw it an estimated 200 yards.
 
Bettes and his team members are alive, but they do have minor injuries.
 
"I saw my life flash before my eyes," Bettes said in a live phone interview as soon as he established phone connection after the incident.
 
He reported seeing other vehicles that had also been thrown by the storm.
 
The storm is now forcing a tornado emergency in Oklahoma City. Go to the weather.com severe tracker for the very latest on watches and warnings.

[SlowModem]

Meteorologist Mike Bettes was chasing the monster rain-wrapped tornado near El Reno, Okla. when he says the storm picked up the heavy chase SUV and threw it an estimated 200 yards.
 
Bettes and his team members are alive, but they do have minor injuries.

I'm glad they're ok, but if they're stupid enough to go out into tornadoes, they ought to expect things like that to happen.

[chief-david]

https://twitter.com/SeanSchoferTVN/status/340625216378126337/photo/1

[Farmtalk]

Debris ball in the St. Louis area; I'll post some pictures soon.

[chief-david]

This is why storm chasing is out of control
http://www.youtube.com/embed/ziZNsproDzs

[IMADreamer]

Ok ok ok I submit.  I finally agree with Weatherhost, even though it pains me.  Storm chasers are out of control.  I know when I stopped circa 2008 the roads where sometimes too crowded, but man it's getting insane now.  Mike Bettis and his Weather Channel crew have no business being out there.  They showed today they are hacks.  I talked to several veteran chasers who packed it in early today.  An old Met school mate of mine whom if I said his name a lot of you would know sent me this text earlier today.

"I'm done, just f*&*n done.  Too man a-holes doing too many stupid things.  These storms are a nightmare to chase because they are rain wrapped and someone is going to die today because they are stupid." 

[BigOkie]

Ok ok ok I submit.  I finally agree with Weatherhost, even though it pains me.  Storm chasers are out of control.  I know when I stopped circa 2008 the roads where sometimes too crowded, but man it's getting insane now.  Mike Bettis and his Weather Channel crew have no business being out there.  They showed today they are hacks.  I talked to several veteran chasers who packed it in early today.  An old Met school mate of mine whom if I said his name a lot of you would know sent me this text earlier today.

"I'm done, just f*&*n done.  Too man a-holes doing too many stupid things.  These storms are a nightmare to chase because they are rain wrapped and someone is going to die today because they are stupid." 

Looks like two different chaser vehicles got nailed today...three if you count Reed Timmer losing the hood on the Dominator.

I've always agreed with WH about this.  I just haven't been as vehement about it as he has been.

I haven't been chasing in a while; back in the day it wasn't a gaggle of dumbasses trying to get the best footage.  It was concerned citizens providing a civil service.  Make 'em all register.  Fine them or put them in the can if they are obstructing traffic.

Just because you took a class and passed a test on spotternetwork.org doesn't give you carte blanche to drive like a doosh.

[Maumelle Weather]

What happened today in OK is the reason I do not, nor will I, chase. Granted I am a certified NWS spotter, I do not chase, period. Especially in the jungles of AR. Spotting here is a challenge in of itself, mainly because of the exact conditions they had this afternoon/early evening. A lot of the severe weather we get is at night, nearly always HP, and moving at 50-60MPH. Not my idea of a good time. I knew something like this would eventually happen, starting with the movie "Twister" back in 1990's, but mainly because of the show "Storm Chasers" and all of the Youtube video that is out there, showing all of the stupidity in full color.

Those that were hit, should count themselves VERY lucky they weren't hurt more seriously, or worse.

John

P.S. - I do not mean to disrespect those who do this responsibly, safely, etc (Mike Hollingshead, Jeff Piotroski just to mention a few). This is more for the average yahoo who thinks its a great and fun thing to do.

[SlowModem]

What happened today in OK is the reason I do not, nor will I, chase. Granted I am a certified NWS spotter, I do not chase, period.

I am a certified NWS observer, too.  When I took the course, they didn't talk about chasing storms.  As a matter of fact, they stressd safety first. 

I interpreted the course as "if you see something, call it in."  not "go looking for something to call us about."

[Farmtalk]

I don't have a problem with storm chasing itself. But I think its ways are too twisted for me to get into it. I am the Josh Wurman type, looking for data, send it to NOAA and provide data that could help save lives. The people in that video just do it to make money, to market their videos as cities and towns are destroyed. To make money off something as horrendous as that bothers me. It just shouldn't be that way.

[BigOkie]

Wow, maybe the first time I've ever seen this warning before.  It triggered both my weather radios.

WWUS74 KTSA 010412
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ060-064-066-067-010800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.HW.W.0002.130601T0412Z-130601T0800Z/
TULSA-CREEK-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

 * IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKMULGEE...WAGONER AND TULSA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
 * DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
 * WIND GUST OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

 * SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO
   PROPERTY DAMAGE.

DEFINITION...
 * A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 * MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BE ALERT TO
   SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
   VEHICLE. EXTRA ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS AND ON
   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

 * STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
   FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.
   ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$

[SlowModem]

I know y'all are used to weather there in OK, but this has got to be a week to remember.  I hope everybody's weather stations survive and keep reporting (I heard there were a lot of power outages).

[AWL]

I know y'all are used to weather there in OK, but this has got to be a week to remember. 

Before leaving for work tonight I told the wife to watch the weather..possible tornados. She said "Oh you got to be kidding me. Not another night of this." This is been a little extreme even here. Only under tornado warnings twice this week here so we have been lucky.. no damage, nothing like the storms north of us.

Doug

[Bunty]

Wow, maybe the first time I've ever seen this warning before.  It triggered both my weather radios.

WWUS74 KTSA 010412
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ060-064-066-067-010800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.HW.W.0002.130601T0412Z-130601T0800Z/
TULSA-CREEK-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

 * IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKMULGEE...WAGONER AND TULSA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
 * DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
 * WIND GUST OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

 * SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO
   PROPERTY DAMAGE.

DEFINITION...
 * A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 * MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BE ALERT TO
   SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
   VEHICLE. EXTRA ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS AND ON
   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

 * STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
   FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.
   ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$

No high wind warning here, but those storms from OKC are headed my way, assuming they don't take a hard right turn and bypass me.  Little wonder there's a severe thunderstorm watch out for here until 5 am.

Earlier, had some worry about a tornado threat here for a short time.  While all the focus was on the OKC area activity, a tornado warning was issued for the northwest part of my county, due to a funnel or tornado sighting near I-35 and Highway 51.  The cities warned didn't include Stillwater and no city sirens started blaring.  When my wx radio went off for the next warning, I was mightily relieved it was only for a severe thunderstorm warning that included Stillwater.  The storm came in with buckets of heavy rain and lightly scattered pea sized hail without much lightening and high wind. 

[BigOkie]

Wow, maybe the first time I've ever seen this warning before.  It triggered both my weather radios.

WWUS74 KTSA 010412
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ060-064-066-067-010800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.HW.W.0002.130601T0412Z-130601T0800Z/
TULSA-CREEK-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

 * IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKMULGEE...WAGONER AND TULSA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
 * DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
 * WIND GUST OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

 * SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO
   PROPERTY DAMAGE.

DEFINITION...
 * A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 * MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BE ALERT TO
   SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
   VEHICLE. EXTRA ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS AND ON
   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

 * STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
   FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.
   ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$

No high wind warning here, but those storms from OKC are headed my way, assuming they don't take a hard right turn and bypass me.  Little wonder there's a severe thunderstorm watch out for here until 5 am.

Earlier, had some worry about a tornado threat here for a short time.  While all the focus was on the OKC area activity, a tornado warning was issued for the northwest part of my county, due to a funnel or tornado sighting near I-35 and Highway 51.  The cities warned didn't include Stillwater and no city sirens started blaring.  When my wx radio went off for the next warning, I was mightily relieved it was only for a severe thunderstorm warning that included Stillwater.  The storm came in with buckets of heavy rain and lightly scattered pea sized hail without much lightening and high wind. 

I've gotten exactly 0.01 in of rain out of this round.  They're still saying we should see some overnight, but once again Tulsa is spared...

[Bunty]

As if the tornado problems weren't enough for them, the 4 to 6 in rain the OKC area has had Friday may result in the worst flooding in recent memory.   Storms now forming in the northwest part of the state where the cold front is later could add further to the flooding.  

I heard it said that officially OKC set an an all time record for total rainfall in May with around 14 inches.

[Bunty]

[SlowModem]

This morning's cocorahs map shows one reading of 8.17 inches in Oklahoma County OK.

http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/GetMap.aspx?state=OK&county=OK&type=precip&date=06/01/2013&cp=0

[BigOkie]

This morning's cocorahs map shows one reading of 8.17 inches in Oklahoma County OK.

http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/GetMap.aspx?state=OK&county=OK&type=precip&date=06/01/2013&cp=0

Wow. Those things will measure up to 10 inches at a time. That's a lot of water.