Topic: Hurricane or Nor'Easter?

[Harryca]

The latest marine weather statement:

Sent: 14:46 EDT on 10-25-2012
Effective: 14:46 EDT on 10-25-2012
Expires: 23:00 EDT on 10-25-2012

Event: Marine Weather Statement

Alert:

...A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

HURRICANE SANDY APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STORM WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTH
AND IMPACT OUR WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH OTHER WEATHER
SYSTEMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...NO MATTER WHERE THIS STORM
TRACKS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING STORM IS
EXPECTED FOR MARINERS. THE MAIN AFFECTS IN OUR WATERS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 25 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS OF
THIS NATURE CAN DAMAGE EVEN LARGE VESSELS. MARINERS SHOULD PLAN TO
RETURN TO PORT BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS.

Target Area:
Block Island Sound
 Boston Harbor
 Buzzards Bay
 Cape Cod Bay
 Coastal Waters East of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine SantuaryY
 Coastal Waters Extending out to w5 NM South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket
 Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard Extending out to 20 NM South of Block Island
 Coastal Waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 NM
 Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay
 Nantucket Sound
 Narragansett Bay
 Rhode Island Sound
 Vinyard Sound
 

[ocala]

The local talking heads have been ranting about it now for the last 48 hrs., we're gonna get something....just don't know what or how much. One track they're showing has it coming pretty much right over me....just have to wait a day or two to 'firm' that up. Did the tour of all my  stations this AM to check batteries, solar panels, etc. Even test ran the genny....the local power co's have a REAL BAD track record here........ Jack

You sound like me getting ready for tropical weather.
Weather station-Check
Generator-Check.
Food and water, ah who needs it.

[moehoward4]

ocala      yeah, I got the IMPORTANT stuff checked out, tomorrows mission.....clean up all of her junk out in the yard....that'll take me more time than I spent today 

[SlowModem]

You sound like me getting ready for tropical weather.
Weather station-Check
Generator-Check.
Food and water, ah who needs it.

Do you think you'll get much of it?

[WeatherHost]

You sound like me getting ready for tropical weather.
Weather station-Check
Generator-Check.
Food and water, ah who needs it.

Do you think you'll get much of it?

Food or water?

Might get a LOT of water. 

[ocala]

You sound like me getting ready for tropical weather.
Weather station-Check
Generator-Check.
Food and water, ah who needs it.

Do you think you'll get much of it?

No it's just going to be a little breezy. High pressure to the north and Sandy to our east will make for a tight pressure gradient.

[Dr Obbins]

Well... They are starting already.... FRANKENSTORM!!!!! 

[Farmtalk]

Hope the best for the northeast! Just heavy rain here! 3-4" for me forecasted as of right now for the next 5 days

[CNYWeather]

You're not in the snow zone there?

[moehoward4]

The local talking head is showing 'projected landfall' at around Cape May, NJ....time will tell. Looks like I'm gonna get some wind and maybe 3-6 in. of rain, we need it but not all at once. The annys need a good work out any way.       Jack

[SlowModem]

Here's the latest "cone"

[SlowModem]

Here's a link to a model that shows the hurricane swirling around NYC several times.

[C5250]

Here's the latest "cone"

Cute how it gets as far north as Jersey and makes a left turn...

I've had an eye on this for a couple/few days now, and it looks like they are convinced it will impact this area at least about the same as Irene. I'm starting to think it could be more like Floyd. It's a still a couple days out, but here is what Upton is currently saying:

000
FXUS61 KOKX 262346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A REX
BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL INHIBIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. THE HURRICANE MODELS
CONTINUE A CONCENTRATED CLUSTERING OF LANDFALL BETWEEN EASTERN
LONG ISLAND TO THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH THE 12Z/26
OPERATIONAL MODEL CLUSTERING ON LANDFALL FROM NYC TO SE NEW
ENGLAND...AND 12Z GEFS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FROM SOUTHERN NJ TO
EASTERN LI WITH LANDFALL. THE MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF LANDFALL
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HAVE KEPT TIMING AND TRACK OF FORECAST CONSISTENT THE LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE...TAKING THE CENTER OF SANDY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NJ/DELMARVA COAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...WITH THE STORM
EXPECTED TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL BY THE
TIME OF LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT ALTHOUGH THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL BEFORE
LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AND DEEP LAYERED LIFT. THE
WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH INTENSE
JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR WINDS...THEY
INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND
LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED
LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT
DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE
TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACT DUE TO THE STILL WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
LANDFALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.



Will have to keep an eye on how this is shaping up toward tomorrow night. 

[SlowModem]

CNN has banned the expression Frankenstorm:

"Frankenstorm" has become the go-to word to describe what is officially called Hurricane Sandy, the potential storm/hurricane/snow event that has meteorologists curled in the fetal position. But the Washington Post's Erik Wemple reported Friday that at least one network, CNN, has banned the term completely from its airwaves.

The reason? CNN says it doesn't want to trivialize the storm, which has the potential to do serious damage up and down the East Coast. ""It's a term that's not appropriate for a storm that's already killed more than 20 people," network meteorologist Chad Meyers told Wemple.

[Harryca]

States are preparing as Sandy moves along the East Coast of the U.S.
 
The states of Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York have declared a state of emergency as they await impacts from Sandy. The reason for declaring a state of emergency is to allow emergency response teams to be activated so they can begin preparing to respond. This allows the teams to move quickly as emergency situations occur.

Read more here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/latest-news-preparations-for-d/715085?partner=accuweather

[CNYWeather]

Ready as I'll ever be. Putting the rest of the yard stuff away today.

[ocala]

Ready as I'll ever be. Putting the rest of the yard stuff away today.

Tony what kind of weather is expected there?

[DanS]

Ready as I'll ever be. Putting the rest of the yard stuff away today.

Hope your neighbors are as thoughtful. When hurricane Ivan's aftermath swept through our neighborhood I found everyone else's belongings in our house and yard.

[racenet]

Ready as I'll ever be. Putting the rest of the yard stuff away today.

Hope your neighbors are as thoughtful. When hurricane Ivan's aftermath swept through our neighborhood I found everyone else's belongings in our house and yard.

Find anything good? 

[mackbig]

So they dont want to trivialize.  But sensationalizing is OK.  I see they came up with a Power Outage Index "forecast"

Andrew

The reason? CNN says it doesn't want to trivialize the storm, which has the potential to do serious damage up and down the East Coast. ""It's a term that's not appropriate for a storm that's already killed more than 20 people," network meteorologist Chad Meyers told Wemple.

[CNYWeather]

Ready as I'll ever be. Putting the rest of the yard stuff away today.

Tony what kind of weather is expected there?

Monday night into Tuesday is when the strongest winds will be here as of this morning.
The HPC is showing maybe 2-3" of rain for here with a lot more to the west near Buffalo.
I think that may be a little underdone?

I figure power will go out which will suck. No power = no water 

We'll also be on the eastern side of the storm so maybe some 40-50+ mph gusts.
That'll keep the pigeons off my rooftop.

[DaculaWeather]

I'd like to get a list of people that are in the path of Sandy, if you report to Wunderground, I'm going to make a list of PWS stations like this...
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_metar_awxf.php

[CNYWeather]

That's a great idea Steve. That script has always intrigued me too 
From me being the only PWS here in my area to now having around 20 on WU.

[SlowModem]

I'd like to get a list of people that are in the path of Sandy, if you report to Wunderground, I'm going to make a list of PWS stations like this...
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_metar_awxf.php

Since we're not sure of the track, perhaps a map like this would give you some help:

http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?action=googlemap

(it took several seconds for the pins to show up)

[WeatherHost]

Wha' happened to not-so-slow?