Author Topic: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.  (Read 10065 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« on: April 12, 2012, 12:51:56 PM »
Hey guys long time no see.  Got all my corn planted. :)  Just in time for the freeze. :(  lol  That's farming. 

Anyway, I'm glad I'm done just in time to get here for the significant severe out break this week.  SPC already has a moderate risk for Saturday.

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...


Gonna be a big few days I think.  Discuss.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4515
  • The blues had a baby and named it rock n roll
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2012, 01:51:16 PM »
I used to get fired up when I saw these but anymore I just cringe after the carnage that has occurred the past few years.
I don't know what that means but I hope for everyone's sake things aren't too bad.

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2012, 02:09:58 PM »
Yeah, I don't get the people that get all geeked up over this stuff.  The 'chasers' really piss me off.  There is NO fun in any of this.   This ain't no spectator sport.





Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4515
  • The blues had a baby and named it rock n roll
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2012, 03:03:35 PM »
Yeah, I don't get the people that get all geeked up over this stuff.  The 'chasers' really piss me off.  There is NO fun in any of this.   This ain't no spectator sport.





The chasers do their part by notifying the proper authorities that a T is on the ground and moving in X direction. That saves lives.
    
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 03:05:34 PM by ocala »

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2012, 03:18:19 PM »
Yeah, I don't get the people that get all geeked up over this stuff.  The 'chasers' really piss me off.  There is NO fun in any of this.   This ain't no spectator sport.





The chasers do their part by notifying the proper authorities that a T is on the ground and moving in X direction. That saves lives.
     


But when 100 chasers invade on hays,Ks where I live it becomes a problem.




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4515
  • The blues had a baby and named it rock n roll
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2012, 03:42:59 PM »
Yeah, I don't get the people that get all geeked up over this stuff.  The 'chasers' really piss me off.  There is NO fun in any of this.   This ain't no spectator sport.





The chasers do their part by notifying the proper authorities that a T is on the ground and moving in X direction. That saves lives.
     


But when 100 chasers invade on hays,Ks where I live it becomes a problem.
Yes, I can certainly understand you POV.

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2012, 04:20:50 PM »
You know these responses are getting old.  No one studies weather because of sunny beautiful days.  These severe out breaks are going to happen, whether we talk about them or now.  That's fact.  People are going to die because of severe weather also fact.  No one is wishing for death and destruction.  So we should be talking about it about this event, studying it, informing people of it, and paying attention when you have a situation like we are going to have over the next few days.  We will probably see atleast one high risk day this week, possibly two.  It's going to be tragic because we as a country have not devoted the resources needed to inform everyone that needs to be informed. 

Then you get people like those in this thread who just don't want to talk about.  Who want to run off those of us who do want to talk about it, study it, and learn.  Well you can kiss my ass.  That will probably get me warned or banned but I don't give a shit any more.  I'm tired of coming here and trying to have discussion about significant weather events only to have the same people every time bitch and complain about chasers, and observers.  Why does this site exists if we can't talk about weather events happening?     

The next five days are prime time learning opportunities.  We are going to have significant weather.  People better take notice because lives are at stake.  I assume everyone is here because they like weather.  Well guess what major weather is unfolding in front of our eyes this week.  So unless you are going to contribute something to this thread about the event go make a thread in OT to bitch about storm chasers.  In the mean time every one keep your eyes on the sky and your weather radios handy because this week is going to be rough.  Whether you like it or not.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2012, 04:26:22 PM »
Back to weather.

10% hatched Tor area now per SPC.  I wonder if we'll see a moderate risk issued?  Two MDs up right now and a watch.  The MDs only seem to hint at isolated Tors though. 

HAVE ALSO ADDED SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION AS COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DISCRETE MODE
   ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES GENERALLY BETWEEN 22-02Z.  THE
   MAIN CONCERN FOR UPGRADING TO MODERATE IS THE LIKELY WIDE SPACING OF
   STORMS AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.  THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED AT
   20Z.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2012, 04:45:11 PM »
Discussing and studying like many of us do is fine and usually productive. 

Trained Spotters and field observers who are attached to public safety or the weather service or legitimate media and do so to make worthwhile reports to the local WFO as part of the event are fine.

'Chasers' who are out to get 'pics' and 'vids' so they can their name on TV and serve no useful purpose should be arrested on sight.

As for this event, that last two Moderates were basically busts.  Some activity, but not on the scale one would expect during a Moderate.  Meanwhile, some of the more serious activity has happened on non-outlooked days, or days that weren't outlooked until after the event began.


Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2012, 04:56:21 PM »
Back to weather.

10% hatched Tor area now per SPC.  I wonder if we'll see a moderate risk issued?  Two MDs up right now and a watch.  The MDs only seem to hint at isolated Tors though.  

Probabilities for WW 157:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes  Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events  Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots  Mod (30%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events  High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches  Mod (60%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events  High (>95%)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0157_prob.html
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 04:58:04 PM by WeatherHost »

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4747
    • WV Waterfalls
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2012, 05:58:19 PM »
I would never put footage of something on my site that would cost people lives; I am more into the examining of structures to start preparing me for college. Seeing storm risks like that for Saturday is very intriguing to me and could be a field day for me to gain valuable info (Until 530 cause prom is at 7 :-( ). I see Saturday as a great learning opportunity. There should never be a hatred towards chasers and such if they are willing to share there information, no matter how many. People that chase simply for the thrill give me a different opinion towards them that I will not discuss here on this thread. But as soon as I get a vehicle, a cheap camera and a Hamradio, I want to go out and get some training and go out chasing too because I think I could really the NWS by reporting things and maybe even create more of an effect. Just my 2 cents..
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2012, 07:12:16 PM »
Sure not much going on out there tonight so far.

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4747
    • WV Waterfalls
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2012, 07:42:51 PM »
This has been the only cell of interest for me thus far. Tornado warned right now and it appears from this picture that a hook echo is trying to form
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2012, 10:13:22 PM »
I can't say I'm surprised by today's results with the low clouds, cap, and lack of good forcing.  It will be interesting to see how/if tonight's convection plays out tomorrow.  There should be some outflow boundaries around to kick things off but I wonder if the low clouds will cause a repeat. 

Still pretty confident about Saturday though.  Moisture will be in place from the golf and forcing will be better.  I think there is plenty of cause for concern. 
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2012, 10:27:16 PM »
The system should be in my area Monday or Tuesday.  Hoping for rain, but I sure don't need the severe stuff.

Offline Bunty

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2485
  • Stillwater, home of Oklahoma State University
    • Welcome to Stillwater Weather
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2012, 10:28:56 PM »
I can't say I'm surprised by today's results with the low clouds, cap, and lack of good forcing.  It will be interesting to see how/if tonight's convection plays out tomorrow.  There should be some outflow boundaries around to kick things off but I wonder if the low clouds will cause a repeat. 

Still pretty confident about Saturday though.  Moisture will be in place from the golf and forcing will be better.  I think there is plenty of cause for concern. 

At least be thankful, it's not going to get real warm in much of the affected area.  Temps probably won't get out of the 70s.

Also the 2nd home page using modified AltDashboard 6.95 at http://stillwaterweather.com/2ndhome.php

Offline Pool

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2012, 02:26:06 AM »
Strong wording for Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma:

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
   THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
   IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
   QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
   STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
   SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
   COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
   WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
   BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2012, 03:33:21 AM »
Interesting!




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2012, 10:08:07 AM »
No surprise they went with a high risk for tomorrow.  Some pretty decent population centers in that area so I'm glad they did this early to get the word out.  Also if you count the moderate risk area there are alot of people in trouble tomorrow. 
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline BigOkie

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Tulsa, OK
    • KOKTULSA13
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 10:48:32 AM »
Yeah, I don't get the people that get all geeked up over this stuff.  The 'chasers' really piss me off.  There is NO fun in any of this.   This ain't no spectator sport.

Valid chasers get valuable data.  Spotters are also trained to do their jobs of helping inform the public.

But you're right.  The 'thrill-seekers' (and as a trained spotter I can 'spot' those guys a mile away) are the ones that have the potential to get people hurt and possibly killed.

As someone who survived a tornado while outside in a ditch, I turned into a spotter because of my desire to help the public.  Not because I'm a thrill-seeker.  I've seen the carnage of what these things do upclose.  When you're a boy of 12 it tends to burn that imprint into your mind.

Thrill-seekers need to stay out of it.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 10:50:05 AM by BigOkie »
Current setup: Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus Wireless
Weather radios:
Reecom R-1650
Sangean CL-100
Uniden Home Patrol I

Offline BigOkie

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1375
  • Tulsa, OK
    • KOKTULSA13
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 10:55:51 AM »
Here's what the local WFO (Tulsa, OK) is saying:

For tonight:


For tomorrow:


Gads...   :?
Current setup: Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus Wireless
Weather radios:
Reecom R-1650
Sangean CL-100
Uniden Home Patrol I

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4747
    • WV Waterfalls
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2012, 11:11:40 AM »
Isn't this only the second time that a high risk has been established??


and we know what happend the first time :-(
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2012, 11:45:32 AM »
Got a text from one of my former classmates who is at a branch of NOAA I won't mention that said "earliest ever high risk issuance by a full 6 hours."  That says a lot about this set up I think.  I tend to defer to him when it comes to this sort of thing and he says "high risk, high bust possibility.  Will be something significant tomorrow, but how much is unsure."

I thought that was interesting.  Of course he is saying this to me as old friends not in his official work capacity. 

BTW I can't post pics and graphics from my workstation but if you guys have never seen a "loaded gun" sounding check out the WRF for 03z Sat.  That's textbook. 

Wish I could sit here and discuss this whole thing out but I have a work deadline to meet.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline Kmenz5

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • Foot's Forecast Kansas City Metro
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2012, 11:50:52 AM »
First of all, let me just say that I am almost finished with my degree in Atmospheric Science so I will be a legit meteorologist, not JUST a storm chaser, but I love to storm chase. It's exciting watching the uncontrollable nature do it's thing. BUT I got this degree also to learn how to predict these events and warn the public. That is the main reason for studying and chasing storms. If we weren't here no one would ever know a severe thunderstorm or tornado was on its way. I'll even include fire weather warnings to this. We also issue those so no one accidentally starts a massive fire on dry windy days and is clueless about it. So please stop complaining about storm chasers. We do it to protect and study. The more chasers there are, the more the public will be aware of what's headed their way.

Check here for latest updates by me:
https://www.facebook.com/ffkcmetro
https://twitter.com/#!/Menz_Wx
Forecaster Kristen - Foot's Forecast - twitter @Menz_Wx

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: Potential significant severe outbreak this week.
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2012, 12:02:08 PM »
Interesting and scary.
https://twitter.com/#!/JonDopplerFAST8/status/190829237496856576

If you are chasing this storm please be careful.  We chased the May 4, 2003 high risk.  I'd never chase a high risk again.  Too much going on too fast for my liking.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com