Topic: SPC: Moderate Risk, Sunday 1/22/12 - AR/TN/MS

[WeatherHost]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN
   AND NRN MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
   MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...
   
   ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
   A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO
   THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE
   TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES
   OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TODAY WITH
   STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR
   NORTH AS MEMPHIS TN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
   A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SSWWD ACROSS ERN AR. MODEL
   FORECASTS RAPIDLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND
   23/00Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINEAR
   MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING.
   
   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
   CREATE A STRONG WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTERACTION
   BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
   GREATEST AS DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE IN ERN AR AND MOVE EWD INTO NW
   MS AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   FOR MEMPHIS AT 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO
   450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A
   LONG-TRACK TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
   HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS
   CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE
   GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A LINE FORMS
   THIS EVENING AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN
   AL. SOME WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 70 KT APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
   STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
   
   ...MID MS AND OH VALLEY...
   A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
   EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN THE MID-MS
   VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS
   EVENING FROM ERN IL SWD INTO WRN KY. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
   DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING
   THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
   VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME SUGGEST THAT A COOL SFC
   INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS
   REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN
   SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60 F.
   
   ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 01/22/2012

[WeatherHost]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 220958
   ALZ000-ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-221800-
   
   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
          EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
          SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          SOUTHERN INDIANA
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
          NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
   FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
   MICHIGAN...OHIO...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS.
   
   A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
   KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY EVENING.  THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
   EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
   EARLY MONDAY...FURTHER INTENSIFYING IN THE PROCESS.  
   
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM IMPULSE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
   WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS KANSAS TODAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
   MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY. 
   AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF FAST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
   USHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
   
   A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
   OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
   LOUISIANA AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
   AIR.
   
   AS THE STORMS BUILD AND INTERACT WITH THE JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF
   THEM LIKELY WILL BECOME LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...POSING A RISK FOR
   STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  THE TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER
   EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. 
   THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE LATER
   TONIGHT...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
   TORNADOES THROUGH DAWN MONDAY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
   SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 01/22/2012

[Farmtalk]

Ill have GR3 on from now till 10pm watching these things...Gonna be fun!!     Its like summer all over again!

[WeatherHost]

Oh Joy, they significantly expanded the Moderate Bullseye.

[Farmtalk]

....and now we are in the slight...Getting exciting

[IMADreamer]

Initiation should start pretty quickly here.  Gonna be an interesting day.  Hope everyone in the MDT risk area is aware.  Probably not to many expecting it.  I got GR2A up and running, I'll be tuned in all night. I'm reading for a good ole fashion wxforum severe thread.

[Farmtalk]

Its been slow to kick off, i dont think the instability is quite as strong as first anticipated, but i think itll ramp up in the next hour or so

[WeatherHost]

And awaaaaaayyyy we go.....

TOR WW0005 just issued for parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi and Tennessee

And it is a PDS watch

[Farmtalk]

It has gotten pretty active just in the last 30 mins...Already a tstorm warning in progress, and a big lining slicing arkansas now where the t watch is

[Farmtalk]

That tornado watch box that was issued has the probrability of 2 or more tornadoes at 90%, 6 or more severe weather reports at >95%

[IMADreamer]

Yep things going quick now.  I hopefully have all the crap I have to do done now so I can just sit back and watch.

That storm near Sharidan, AK is wicked looking.  I wouldn't doubt if it's producing. It's also moving at 55mph.  yikes!

[Farmtalk]

The Sheridan one has some circulation to it, and the storm just south of it also has a torn warning on it, no evidence of vortex on radar yet though

[Farmtalk]

Just found this weak tvs to the west of Bearden, AK

[IMADreamer]

The Fordyce cell means some serious business.  I'm concerned about it for sure.

[IMADreamer]

TOG northeast of Fordyce.  

AT 727 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FORDYCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE
TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

Rison about to get it.

[IMADreamer]

TORNADO EMERGENCY!
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 736 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE IN FORDYCE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GRAYS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
RISON... GRAYS LAKE... TOLEDO...
NEBO... KEDRON... FEENYVILLE...
YORKTOWN... TARRY... RANDALL...
PINEBERGEN... LADD... GRIFFITH SPRING...
GLENLAKE... GLENDALE... FAITH...
CALMER... WILSON LAKE... UNIONVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 46.


This is so bad guys.  Tonight is going to be bad.

[IMADreamer]

Damage now being reported in Fordyce and Rison.  People trapped in homes. 

[Farmtalk]

Good news is that it looks like the signature has weakened strongly since it was over rison

[Farmtalk]

I found a weaker tvs just to the east of Jefferson, AK with a torn warning on it

[IMADreamer]

That Rison storm was seriously nasty. 

More stuff going

[Farmtalk]

"Particularly Dangerous Situation"

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          EASTERN ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
   DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
   AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL
   INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.  VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE
   MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
   TONIGHT.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
   

[Farmtalk]

....Tornado Watch 6, for Ohio River Valley

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   730 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
          WESTERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
   200 AM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM AR TO SE
   MO...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE LOW
   LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND A COOL AIR MASS ERODES.  THOUGH SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE
   WATCH AREA...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
   TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE IS
   EXPECTED...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
   FAST STORM MOTIONS AND 60-70 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
   

[IMADreamer]

Great move getting these watches out tonight while everyone is awake still.

[Farmtalk]

Yeah try to get these things showed to everyone possible...

Got another signature b-lining for Almyra, AK...just curious Jason, where did u get ur velocity color table? i like urs more than mine! 

[Farmtalk]

That cell im talking about just hit a little town called Cornerstone, it looks pretty nasty