Topic: 100% chance of rain and not a drop

[ocala]

It's very rare to see a 100% chance of rain. It's even rarer that you don't get any rain at all when 100% is forecasted.  That's what happened here in north central Florida yesterday. There wasn't even any rain within a 40 mile radius of the house. Now I consider the forecast to be from sunrise to sunset. The forecast was updated somewhere around 3AM Tuesday morning and again around 10AM so there should have been some type of precip by sunset.
I will say that after sunset about 9PM and again at 3AM we did get our rain.
I'll give the NWS a pass 99.9% of the time because of the difficulty in forecasting weather but when you throw out a 100% chance and it doesn't rain, then that's on you.

[Downlinerz2]

   That is strange.  Maybe that's why they don't use 100% very often.  They like to leave room for error!

[Farmtalk]

For our local NWS office, they say "Chance of rain NEAR 100%" lol...Anytime they say that though we have gotten rain

[kray1000]

I remember a forecast when I was in the fifth grade for a 100% chance of snow, with up to 6 inches forecast.  All we got were flurries, but we did get an early dismissal out of it.

[Scalphunter]

Just move to SEAK and that forecast of 100 % rain will most likly happen ant day of the week. Rare are thedays of clear and suuny.

John

[xykotik]

When I moved to Phoenix for school, I joked that the weatherman had the easiest job.  Just forecast "hot and sunny" every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  Then I moved to Seattle a few years later and realized that the weatherman had the same easy job.  Just forecast clouds and rain every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  97% accuracy baby!

[Downlinerz2]

When I moved to Phoenix for school, I joked that the weatherman had the easiest job.  Just forecast "hot and sunny" every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  Then I moved to Seattle a few years later and realized that the weatherman had the same easy job.  Just forecast clouds and rain every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  97% accuracy baby!

    I have always thought something similar.  Most forecasts are so similar (usually) how do we know the mets worked up their own? They could just pull one from the net and do a little preening and primping and voila, they have their forecast!

[xykotik]

When I moved to Phoenix for school, I joked that the weatherman had the easiest job.  Just forecast "hot and sunny" every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  Then I moved to Seattle a few years later and realized that the weatherman had the same easy job.  Just forecast clouds and rain every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  97% accuracy baby!

    I have always thought something similar.  Most forecasts are so similar (usually) how do we know the mets worked up their own? They could just pull one from the net and do a little preening and primping and voila, they have their forecast!

I travel a lot, and have noticed in many markets the local station has "the only [insert professional weather-forecaster association] certified forecaster" in the [area].  I have concluded that these are nothing more than a network of charlatains that for extortionate dues (and non-disclosure agreements) tell them how to use secrets such as these (and fancy radar-loops) in exchange for their "exclusive" certification and prestigious logo.  (attention pro-weather-assoc attorneys...  parody.)

[SlowModem]

I travel a lot, and have noticed in many markets the local station has "the only [insert professional weather-forecaster association] certified forecaster" in the [area].  I have concluded that these are nothing more than a network of charlatains that for extortionate dues (and non-disclosure agreements) tell them how to use secrets such as these (and fancy radar-loops) in exchange for their "exclusive" certification and prestigious logo.  (attention pro-weather-assoc attorneys...  parody.)

Isn't that kind of like "the official (insert product here) of the olympics" or "the official (insert product here) of nascar?"

[Cienega32]

I remember a forecast when I was in the fifth grade for a 100% chance of snow, with up to 6 inches forecast.  All we got were flurries, but we did get an early dismissal out of it.

I remember one of "flurries - possibly 1-3 inches" while there was close to 6" in the entire forecast area. That understatement trend continued until roughly 16" fell.

Sometimes a window beats forecast models.

[kcidwx]

When I moved to Phoenix for school, I joked that the weatherman had the easiest job.  Just forecast "hot and sunny" every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  Then I moved to Seattle a few years later and realized that the weatherman had the same easy job.  Just forecast clouds and rain every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  97% accuracy baby!

97%? You guys must be amateurs. Here's how you bump that up to 100%.

Forecast Issued: 4:30am
Today: Skies becoming lighter this morning.
Tonight: Skies becoming darker in the evening.
Tomorrow: Repeat

Yeah, I'm a genius what can I say. I'm waiting for the NWS to hire me.

[Downlinerz2]

When I moved to Phoenix for school, I joked that the weatherman had the easiest job.  Just forecast "hot and sunny" every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  Then I moved to Seattle a few years later and realized that the weatherman had the same easy job.  Just forecast clouds and rain every day, and only be wrong 10 times out of 365.  97% accuracy baby!

97%? You guys must be amateurs. Here's how you bump that up to 100%.
Forecast Issued: 4:30am
Today: Skies becoming lighter this morning.
Tonight: Skies becoming darker in the evening.
Tomorrow: Repeat
Yeah, I'm a genius what can I say. I'm waiting for the NWS to hire me.

  That's like the old George Carlin bit.  You can see the "Hippy Dippy Weatherman here...absolute classic!
       http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1uaw3WIOlc
   better is     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2HpB5CGfLQ&feature=fvwp&NR=1

[Weather Display]

how about:
"Mainly fine, apart from some cloudy periods and few showers, some of which may be heavy with isolated thunderstorms"

[Farmtalk]

Weather people these days......

[kray1000]

I travel a lot, and have noticed in many markets the local station has "the only [insert professional weather-forecaster association] certified forecaster" in the [area].  I have concluded that these are nothing more than a network of charlatains that for extortionate dues (and non-disclosure agreements) tell them how to use secrets such as these (and fancy radar-loops) in exchange for their "exclusive" certification and prestigious logo.  (attention pro-weather-assoc attorneys...  parody.)

I crack up every time I'm in a new TV market and I hear a weather update from "Storm Team xx".

[SLOweather]

Well, why don't we create our own PWS certification/accreditation that we can put on our web sites?

[AridZona]

I crack up every time I'm in a new TV market and I hear a weather update from "Storm Team xx".

I lived in/around San Diego, CA for most of my life and was always amused by the fact that we'd get .25" of rain and all the news stations would immediately start their "Storm Watch" coverage.   

SoCal drivers are the worst, too - no matter what the weather is, they drive like it's sunny and dry.  The freeways turn into demolition derbies on rain days, and it really gets crazy during winter when the 'flatlanders' drive up to the mountains to play in the snow!

[SlowModem]

The freeways turn into demolition derbies on rain days

That sounds like I-285 around Atlanta!  We used to call it the Watermellon 500.   

[xykotik]

Well, why don't we create our own PWS certification/accreditation that we can put on our web sites?

It's already there.  300 posts is the qualification.  All we need is a website badge "WXForum 5-star Forecaster"

[Cienega32]

I lived in/around San Diego, CA for most of my life and was always amused by the fact that we'd get .25" of rain and all the news stations would immediately start their "Storm Watch" coverage.   

The local El Paso news coverage of a rain event always includes the "streets are flooding" comments while showing the raging rapids that run alongside a curb that look like someone may have just washed their car "upstream"...


Great handle, AridZona!

[xykotik]

I lived in/around San Diego, CA for most of my life and was always amused by the fact that we'd get .25" of rain and all the news stations would immediately start their "Storm Watch" coverage.   

The local El Paso news coverage of a rain event always includes the "streets are flooding" comments while showing the raging rapids that run alongside a curb that look like someone may have just washed their car "upstream"...

And that reminds me of watching the Raleigh NC newscast weather when an ice-storm was coming.  Along with the graphs and charts for the forecast, they put up a BBB meter (Bread, Bottled-water and Beer) to help prepare for the impending shortages at the grocery stores.

[Downlinerz2]

I lived in/around San Diego, CA for most of my life and was always amused by the fact that we'd get .25" of rain and all the news stations would immediately start their "Storm Watch" coverage.   

The local El Paso news coverage of a rain event always includes the "streets are flooding" comments while showing the raging rapids that run alongside a curb that look like someone may have just washed their car "upstream"...

And that reminds me of watching the Raleigh NC newscast weather when an ice-storm was coming.  Along with the graphs and charts for the forecast, they put up a BBB meter (Bread, Bottled-water and Beer) to help prepare for the impending shortages at the grocery stores.

    That really sounds like something George Carlins  character, The Hippy Dippy Weatherman, would come up with!   Reality is stranger than fiction.....or comedy!