Topic: Possibly incorrectly issuing Tornado Warnings

[groze]

Not to nick pick.  I think some of the Tornado Warning issued for Indiana around 10 p.m. EDT 5-25-2011,  should of been Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  The reason there was no rotation detected on Radar, no one seeing a funnel cloud, tornado or a wall cloud. This is why people don't listen to Tornado warnings.  Of course this in my opinion.

They did finally change some to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.   I think it was do to the TV weather people saying there is no rotation.  

Who is over the NWS weather service offices?

[Downlinerz2]

  Personally I would prefer them to overestimate.  A tornado can drop from a severe thunderstorm and has in my  area more than once. On many occasions I have wondered why they issue one over the other. A lot of people are going to ignore things no matter what.  They were complaining here today during the live coverage of tornado warnings here that Oprah's last show was pre-empted.  You can't please all the people and that is far far far more true today.  But it is my opinion. When the TV was returning to regular programming the meteorologist was saying that there were a lot of people complaining that they were making a big to-do about tornadoes and there were no touchdowns.  He had to repeat many times that "they were glad about that" and that with the technology today it is much better to warn in advance than to not warn so there were going to be many false-alarms.  It is a complicated situation.  I like to err on the side of caution.  JMVHO.
    Oh, they are going to show Oprahs last show tomorrow but severe weather is a possibility again.  I hope they bounce it again!
    Mark

[IMADreamer]

They were absolutely correct to issue blanket tor warnings in this situation because quick spin ups were very possible and indeed happened.  Back in April (the 19th or 20th) there were over 20 tornadoes from a very similar situation where a blanket warning was issued. 

The NWS did a fantastic job with this event, like they always do. 

[groze]

 Personally I would prefer them to overestimate.  A tornado can drop from a severe thunderstorm and has in my  area more than once. On many occasions I have wondered why they issue one over the other.

I think those in Ohio had rotation.   One of the Indiana Tv weather people even said in a round about way that they should been issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for some of them, since there was no rotation detected.   To me if they are going to have reliable warnings the NWS offices needs to follow their own criteria.  I heard their warning criteria enough to know.   Not sure if this is correct, I read it on FB, that some Indiana counties didn't sound the siren because there was no rotation.

They started issuing severe thunderstorm warnings for my area, but the rotation was detected,  then it was changed to a tornado warning.   I did go downstairs when the storm got closer, it was still in another county when they upgrade the warning.  I listen to Amateur Radio Operators.  I am not sure if we had a touch down in the county or if the funnel cloud(s) did the damage.  I think it was a barn damage.

The TV weather people go overboard and keep talking about the same thing over & over.   If this happened on a weekend,  we wouldn't have wall to wall coverage.

To this other person living here,  these are the same type of storms we got before & didn't have wall to wall coverage and I agree with this person.

I don't blame people for complaining about missing Opera.  It is the Final show. Wthr 13 did show it.

We really makes me mad.   Is why don't they use there own weather or news channel for severe weather coverage?  It is kind of pointless to have a weather or news station, if you are going to interrupt programming on the main channel. Most people have access to the weather-news channel either by over the air or by cable.

Wrtv 6  has news channel 64  (over the air 6.2)
Wish 8  has lws  (over the air 8.2)
Wthr 13 has skytrack (over the air 13.2)

[WeatherHost]

Over-warning is one of the reasons I shut my WX radio off.  I have other ways to check warnings and can pick the ones directly related to me.

[IMADreamer]

 Personally I would prefer them to overestimate.  A tornado can drop from a severe thunderstorm and has in my  area more than once. On many occasions I have wondered why they issue one over the other.

I think those in Ohio had rotation.   One of the Indiana Tv weather people even said in a round about way that they should been issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for some of them, since there was no rotation detected.   To me if they are going to have reliable warnings the NWS offices needs to follow their own criteria.  I heard their warning criteria enough to know.   Not sure if this is correct, I read it on FB, that some Indiana counties didn't sound the siren because there was no rotation.

They started issuing severe thunderstorm warnings for my area, but the rotation was detected,  then it was changed to a tornado warning.   I did go downstairs when the storm got closer, it was still in another county when they upgrade the warning.  I listen to Amateur Radio Operators.  I am not sure if we had a touch down in the county or if the funnel cloud(s) did the damage.  I think it was a barn damage.

The TV weather people go overboard and keep talking about the same thing over & over.   If this happened on a weekend,  we wouldn't have wall to wall coverage.

To this other person living here,  these are the same type of storms we got before & didn't have wall to wall coverage and I agree with this person.

I don't blame people for complaining about missing Opera.  It is the Final show. Wthr 13 did show it.

We really makes me mad.   Is why don't they use there own weather or news channel for severe weather coverage?  It is kind of pointless to have a weather or news station, if you are going to interrupt programming on the main channel. Most people have access to the weather-news channel either by over the air or by cable.

Wrtv 6  has news channel 64  (over the air 6.2)
Wish 8  has lws  (over the air 8.2)
Wthr 13 has skytrack (over the air 13.2)

Are you serious? I honestly can't tell. Complaining about missing Oprah, thinking TV weather men (probably not METs) know more then the NWS pros?  You can't be serious.  There is no way. 

I guess it's proof you can't please everyone.  I'm sure the same people bitching would have been if they'd not broke in and their house was destroyed. 

BTW 81 tornadoes yesterday, 450 reports of wind damage.  Yeah, Oprah was more important.   

[groze]

Iamdreamer,  you kind of made part of my point about them interrupting.   You can't have it both ways.   

Are you serious? I honestly can't tell. Complaining about missing Oprah, thinking TV weather men (probably not METs) know more then the NWS pros?  You can't be serious.  There is no way.

Like I said above.

My other point is each of my stations listed below have there own sub channels. They could do continuous coverage on those stations most if not all people get those sub channels either by cable or by antenna.  Most people would turn to a cable channel if is it not affecting their area anyways.  I finally turned it off till I heard the Tornado sirens for my county. 

Wrtv 6  has news channel 64  (over the air 6.2)
Wish 8  has lws  (over the air 8.2)
Wthr 13 has skytrack (over the air 13.2)
 
My next point is the NWS should follow their own warning criteria.   

With some of the Tornado Warnings issued yesterday.   I wouldn't of gone downstairs because the tv weather people were not reporting rotation with those storms.  I went down stairs a few minutes later after I heard them detecting rotation.  I would of turned to the station weather/news channel.

I know a lot about weather.  I listen to the Amateur Radio Operators.  Even some of the trained spotters in the past have disagreed with NWS on the type of warnings issued.  I would like to been an Amateur Radio Operator but I can't get past the electoral theory that is required for no-code license.  It is do to my learning disabilities.  That one area I am not good in.   

[BigOkie]

Iamdreamer,  you kind of made part of my point about them interrupting.   You can't have it both ways.  

Are you serious? I honestly can't tell. Complaining about missing Oprah, thinking TV weather men (probably not METs) know more then the NWS pros?  You can't be serious.  There is no way.

Like I said above.

My other point is each of my stations listed below have there own sub channels. They could do continuous coverage on those stations most if not all people get those sub channels either by cable or by antenna.  Most people would turn to a cable channel if is it not affecting their area anyways.  I finally turned it off till I heard the Tornado sirens for my county.  

Wrtv 6  has news channel 64  (over the air 6.2)
Wish 8  has lws  (over the air 8.2)
Wthr 13 has skytrack (over the air 13.2)
  
My next point is the NWS should follow their own warning criteria.  

With some of the Tornado Warnings issued yesterday.   I wouldn't of gone downstairs because the tv weather people were not reporting rotation with those storms.  I went down stairs a few minutes later after I heard them detecting rotation.  I would of turned to the station weather/news channel.

I know a lot about weather.  I listen to the Amateur Radio Operators.  Even some of the trained spotters in the past have disagreed with NWS on the type of warnings issued.  I would like to been an Amateur Radio Operator but I can't get past the electoral theory that is required for no-code license.  It is do to my learning disabilities.  That one area I am not good in.    

I can guaran-damn-tee you that in this part of the country, TV meteos ARE meteos.  I like some over others.  Most get their data from the NWS and put their own spin on it.  A TV meteo here would NEVER second-guess the judgement of a fellow meteorologist.  Anyone who is worth their salt works at the WFO Tulsa simply because of it's location, same with WFO Norman, WFO Springfield..you get the picture. 

As far as your assertion about TORWARs, I think I'd likely defer to the NWS meteos over your judgement..well, just about any day of the week.  Thank you.  I'd rather them overwarn than underwarn.  Especially after seeing the destruction in Joplin.  I have friends that no longer have a home up there, and one escaped with his life.

[AWL]

  I can guaran-damn-tee you that in this part of the country, TV meteos ARE meteos.  I like some over others.  Most get their data from the NWS and put their own spin on it.  A TV meteo here would NEVER second-guess the judgement of a fellow meteorologist.  Anyone who is worth their salt works at the WFO Tulsa simply because of it's location, same with WFO Norman, WFO Springfield..you get the picture. 

As far as your assertion about TORWARs, I think I'd likely defer to the NWS meteos over your judgement..well, just about any day of the week.  Thank you.  I'd rather them overwarn than underwarn.  Especially after seeing the destruction in Joplin.  I have friends that no longer have a home up there, and one escaped with his life.

Couldn't agree more.

[IMADreamer]

Iamdreamer,  you kind of made part of my point about them interrupting.   You can't have it both ways.   

Are you serious? I honestly can't tell. Complaining about missing Oprah, thinking TV weather men (probably not METs) know more then the NWS pros?  You can't be serious.  There is no way.

Like I said above.

My other point is each of my stations listed below have there own sub channels. They could do continuous coverage on those stations most if not all people get those sub channels either by cable or by antenna.  Most people would turn to a cable channel if is it not affecting their area anyways.  I finally turned it off till I heard the Tornado sirens for my county. 

Wrtv 6  has news channel 64  (over the air 6.2)
Wish 8  has lws  (over the air 8.2)
Wthr 13 has skytrack (over the air 13.2)
 
My next point is the NWS should follow their own warning criteria.   

With some of the Tornado Warnings issued yesterday.   I wouldn't of gone downstairs because the tv weather people were not reporting rotation with those storms.  I went down stairs a few minutes later after I heard them detecting rotation.  I would of turned to the station weather/news channel.

I know a lot about weather.  I listen to the Amateur Radio Operators.  Even some of the trained spotters in the past have disagreed with NWS on the type of warnings issued.  I would like to been an Amateur Radio Operator but I can't get past the electoral theory that is required for no-code license.  It is do to my learning disabilities.  That one area I am not good in.   

In bold are the two things that make me laugh.  Not meteorologist but trained spotters and tv weather people.  Not to sound like an elitist but meteorologist (like myself) go through years of hard core science, physics, atmospheric dynamics, etc so that we know more and have better judgment then the local fireman playing storm chaser, or some douche in a suit on a tv. 

Trust the NWS, the other guys don't know what they are doing or they'd have the degrees.  Met school separates the men from the boys intellectually.  The men get the met degree, the boys go into tv after they realize they can't hack the math.  Sorry, just fact.  Now of course in the plains and some other places there are real mets on tv but most aren't.  I saw a survey once that said only 30% of on air "weathermen" actually had meteorology degrees.  Kind of sad considering they are the last line of warning between the NWS and the public. 

The people who question the validity of the NWS warnings are the ones who get killed in these outbreak type situations.

[groze]

Well my friend went to work.  No one there listened to any of the coverage and went to bed early.   People ignored the tornado warnings.     Tv stations use Doppler radar.   It is Doppler Radar the nws use to detect rotation.    Except for 05-25-11. Most NWS offices only issue Tornado warnings if rotation is detected on radar or spotted.  I am not question if there should of been a warning.  I am questioning the type of warning that should of been issued for some.   

The big storms you are talking about were spotted and said it was on the ground.  I heard that it would be a different story.

[WeatherHost]

In bold are the two things that make me laugh.  Not meteorologist but trained spotters and tv weather people.  Not to sound like an elitist but meteorologist (like myself) go through years of hard core science, physics, atmospheric dynamics, etc so that we know more and have better judgment then the local fireman playing storm chaser, or some douche in a suit on a tv.


Not necessarily.  NWS folks are sitting in a room looking at a screen that is processed data from possibly many, many miles away and partially degraded by 'stuff' in-between.

The local spotters are on the ground at the point of the event.  They generally 'know better' because they're closer to it.

How many warnings are issued for 'radar indicated' possibilities that never produce a touchdown?  I'd imagine that number is quite high.  Over the last year or so, we've had more than a dozen TOR warnings, not a single one of which has materialized.

This was reflected in an interview with a woman in Joplin who said they didn't take the sirens seriously because they were always going off.

Over-warning can be as bad or worse than under-warning.

Trust the NWS, the other guys don't know what they are doing or they'd have the degrees.  Met school separates the men from the boys intellectually.

Remember, NWS is Government.  They follow set protocols.  I would not consider them more trustworthy.

And I'd rather trust someone with years of seat-of-the-pants local knowledge than someone with a bunch of book learnin' and a bunch of paper hanging on their wall.

[WeatherHost]

Tv stations use Doppler radar.   It is Doppler Radar the nws use to detect rotation.

TV stations use high-speed data feeds from the NWS Doppler radar sites.  Some stations have their own radar, but very, very few.  They are just far too expensive to operate and maintain.

Most TV Mets are looking at exactly the same radar information as the NWS Mets.

[IMADreamer]

There is no doubt ground truth is important, but if a warning is issued there is a reason for.  In situations like yesterday where there is so much helicity and insitibility you can't rely on ground truth before warnings are issued.  Yesterday was not a long tracked tornadoes on the ground for 20 minutes and you get plenty of warning type situation.  It was a storms go from nothing to tornado in minutes or even seconds.  They had to issue those tornado warnings yesterday, any storm could have went tornadic at any time.  I guess if you don't understand that concept there is no explaining it to you.  Again this was not a classic plains outbreak scenario. 

Weatherhost your right we should just listen to the guys without degrees.  Those pieces of paper mean nothing.     I'm sure after yesterday all NWS meteorologist will be sacked and they will replace them all with people who have taken spotter training classes or anyone whose felt a light breeze. 

[groze]

Thank you weatherhost.   I already knew some tv stations do that.    I think wish tv 8 has their own Doppler radar.   Not with this last storm, the nws weather service Doppler radar was down & they used wish tv radar to issuing warnings.    

I used to take the Tornado Warnings more seriously, when they said detected by radar.  Which means to me, the radar was showing rotation.   Some of the Tornado warning were issued without rotation.

After yesterday.  I decided to set my radio for just my county.  It went off way to much even with multiple county set.    If I live closer to the county line.  I would add the other county.

The problem with the Tornado sirens is in a lot of areas they test them every week.  They need to do the test once a month and during the statewide tornado test.

I know how dangerous Tornadoes can be.   If I hear from the tv, nws, police, amateur  radio operator that a Tornado is on the ground.  Then I will take action.

I have seen one (funnel or tornado), when I was younger.

Not this last storm. in the past--I believe my street got a Tornado despite the nws saying it was straight line winds.   We didn't get any warnings for that storm at all.  That was before the new radars came about.  The reason I say it was a Tornado because of the Damage Pattern.   I don't know if they even investigated it.  If they did, it was after the clean up.  So it would look like straight line winds & I heard the roaring.

[Downlinerz2]

    All of the Tv on cam meteo's here are professional meteorologists.  The channel I was watching yesterday during the severe weather has 3 or 4 meteorologists and I am almost 100% sure all the other stations here have professional meteorologists that are on camera.
   Mark

[neondesert]

Interesting thread. 

I would think that in light of the devastation and shear number of deaths that have occurred in the
last couple of months due to violent tornadoes that people would be more likely to take a warning seriously.

I think the mets at the NWS do an outstanding job considering the difficulty involved with tornado forecasting.
Also, ground reports from spotters play a significant role in verifying as well as issuing warnings for tornadoes
that are not being detected by radar and they should be applauded for their contributions as well. 

Are all warning going to pan out?  Of course not.  Tornado forecasting is not a perfect science and we all
know it.  Myself, I would tend to error on the side of caution and live the next day to tell about it, rather than play armchair
meteorologist. 

[IMADreamer]

    All of the Tv on cam meteo's here are professional meteorologists.  The channel I was watching yesterday during the severe weather has 3 or 4 meteorologists and I am almost 100% sure all the other stations here have professional meteorologists that are on camera.
   Mark

It's definitely not that way here.  Only one station here has meteorologist, they actually have three.  St. Louis TV  doesn't have a lot of meteorologist either, although they ones they have are excellent.

[groze]

There is no doubt ground truth is important, but if a warning is issued there is a reason for.  In situations like yesterday where there is so much helicity and insitibility you can't rely on ground truth before warnings are issued.  Yesterday was not a long tracked tornadoes on the ground for 20 minutes and you get plenty of warning type situation.  It was a storms go from nothing to tornado in minutes or even seconds.  They had to issue those tornado warnings yesterday, any storm could have went tornadic at any time.  I guess if you don't understand that concept there is no explaining it to you.  Again this was not a classic plains outbreak scenario. 

Weatherhost your right we should just listen to the guys without degrees.  Those pieces of paper mean nothing.     I'm sure after yesterday all NWS meteorologist will be sacked and they will replace them all with people who have taken spotter training classes or anyone whose felt a light breeze. 

None of that was my point IAMdreamer.  To me you are basically saying is all thunderstorm warnings should actually be Tornado Warnings.   Technically any storm can produced a Tornado even a thundershower.    In fact,  Muncie, Indiana had a cold air funnel that did damage to some electrical poles.  Not sure if it became a Tornado.  It was spotted by a spotter and  a Tornado warning was issued


My point is if you want people to the follow the warnings,  go by your own warning protocol don't change it in mid process.

Most national weather services don't issue Tornado Warning unless it spotted, or rotation detected on radar. 

Because of this  I don't trust my NWS office like I use to.   I may listen if they say the tornado is on the ground,  otherwise I may not.

[Dr Obbins]

When I first moved to KY 17 years ago from NJ, we used to run to the basement each tornado warning. Now I don't even wake the family up for one. Like the boy who cried wolf over and over, the warnings have lost the severity that was intended.  While not in tornado ally here in KY, there are many, many warnings and a few small tornadoes each year. I wonder what the warning to actual tornado ration is.

I am beginning to think more and more that a another level of notification is needed. There are advisories, watches and warnings. The warning covers everything from a suspicious rotating thunderstorm to a EF5 killer tornado. Maybe there should be another level. "Advisory", "Watch", "Warning" and "Run For Your Life!" or something.

[Rock]

 
 

 
[/quote]

In bold are the two things that make me laugh.  Not meteorologist but trained spotters and tv weather people.  Not to sound like an elitist but meteorologist (like myself) go through years of hard core science, physics, atmospheric dynamics, etc so that we know more and have better judgment then the local fireman playing storm chaser, or some douche in a suit on a tv. 

[/quote]

I really don't have a dog in this hunt, but I don't get your attitude toward folks who are mostly volunteers doing spotting duties, duties that I may remind you are sanctioned and requested by the NWS. Yes, most firefighters are volunteers for the communities they serve. And by the way, they aren't out 'chasing' anything in a fully equipped firetruck. Just like when I volunteered to do the same in a squad car. Next time an event is warned, you go ahead and hop in your car from behind your forecasting computer, and go spot the storm you just warned. We'll all wait for you to get back to your office to let us know what you saw. Oh, gee the storm might be over by then, or moved out of a spotter's area. I respect the work the NWS meteos do, and disagree with the OP, bu you need to get over yourself.       

[mth]

When I first moved to KY 17 years ago from NJ, we used to run to the basement each tornado warning. Now I don't even wake the family up for one. Like the boy who cried wolf over and over, the warnings have lost the severity that was intended.  While not in tornado ally here in KY, there are many, many warnings and a few small tornadoes each year. I wonder what the warning to actual tornado ration is.

I am beginning to think more and more that a another level of notification is needed. There are advisories, watches and warnings. The warning covers everything from a suspicious rotating thunderstorm to a EF5 killer tornado. Maybe there should be another level. "Advisory", "Watch", "Warning" and "Run For Your Life!" or something.

I think the problem is that a "suspicious rotating thunderstorm" can turn into an EF5 tornado in a matter of a couple minutes!

[groze]

mth & Rock
That the point,  people are not getting.  The nws indy office may have been issuing some tornado warnings without the radar detecting rotation and was NOT spotted.   Other tornado warnings there was rotation. 

I listened to watches & warnings all my life.  So, to me it looks like there were not following proper warning protocol.  Unless they changed the Tornado warning protocol which is possible.  Some should of been severe thunderstorm warning not tornado warnings in my opinion.

Rock,  I do agree if I heard on the scanner that a skywarn spotter saw a tornado on the ground or a funnel cloud and heading for town.  I would go down to the basement and/or if the NWS service issued a Tornado warning saying a tornado was on the ground.  Most people know about spotters now. 

[IMADreamer]

I hope none of the tornadoes today were unnecessary warned so no ones cook outs were interrupted.

[Dr Obbins]

When I first moved to KY 17 years ago from NJ, we used to run to the basement each tornado warning. Now I don't even wake the family up for one. Like the boy who cried wolf over and over, the warnings have lost the severity that was intended.  While not in tornado ally here in KY, there are many, many warnings and a few small tornadoes each year. I wonder what the warning to actual tornado ration is.

I am beginning to think more and more that a another level of notification is needed. There are advisories, watches and warnings. The warning covers everything from a suspicious rotating thunderstorm to a EF5 killer tornado. Maybe there should be another level. "Advisory", "Watch", "Warning" and "Run For Your Life!" or something.

I think the problem is that a "suspicious rotating thunderstorm" can turn into an EF5 tornado in a matter of a couple minutes!

My understanding is that a "watch" means that conditions are favorable. A "warning" means that it is happening now. So a "suspicious rotating thunderstorm" that can turn into an EF5 tornado in a matter of a couple minutes is still a severe thunderstorm and should keep the thunderstorm warning. Severe thunderstorms can produce high winds that threaten life and property just the same as a small tornado. Leave the tornado warning for actual tornadoes.